Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

Quebec Poll Numbers.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

Of those polled, 30 per cent said they would support the Liberals. That figure is unchanged from a poll taken last week.

The Parti Quebecois dropped a point during the week to 31 per cent while the only party to gain ground was the ADQ, up two points to 28 per cent.

Whoa, talk about a close one. I don't think anyone forecast this.

It certainly makes one think about the unpredictability of a campaign. At the beginning people were talking about the PQ being reduced to ashes. Now, they could end up as government. Any of the parties could end up as the government given voter turn-out.

[August1991]

Whoa, talk about a close one. I don't think anyone forecast this.

It certainly makes one think about the unpredictability of a campaign. At the beginning people were talking about the PQ being reduced to ashes. Now, they could end up as government. Any of the parties could end up as the government given voter turn-out.

This has been predicted for several weeks now.

The PQ at 30% is tantamount to being reduced to ashes.

If the PQ forms a government, it will be a minority and likely won't last long.

This election in Quebec has the markings of a watershed. This implies similar changes in Canadian federal politics.

[jdobbin]

This has been predicted for several weeks now.

The PQ at 30% is tantamount to being reduced to ashes.

If the PQ forms a government, it will be a minority and likely won't last long.

This election in Quebec has the markings of a watershed. This implies similar changes in Canadian federal politics.

It was predicted that that ADQ had as good a chance of being the government as Liberals or PQ? Guess I'm not reading enough of Quebec press. What I was reading was majority or at worst a Liberal minority. Now, who can say come election day?

As for the assertion that the PQ are reduced to ashes, I don't buy it. If they form a minority government, they are the government. It might not last long but that doesn't mean they will be defeated.

[geoffrey]

"Extreme" movements like the PQ (or any sovereignty type party) need high numbers to sustain themselves, they can't function at NDP style levels. If there is no hope for sovereignty (like a 20-30% showing for the PQ), then no one will care about them. I'm sure 25% of Albertans would support a sovereigntist party if they were as well organized and led as the PQ. The reason we don't have one is that 25% isn't nearly enough to sustain one.

[Canadian Blue]

The same poll show's good news for the Conservatives in that province as well.

With speculation swirling about the possibility of an early federal election, 36 per cent of respondents said they would vote for the Bloc Quebecois, while 29 per cent would vote for the Conservatives, 21 for the Liberals, and 9 per cent for the NDP.

This election is up in the air, and as far as I'm concerned we could see any party form government. It all depends on what the turnout is like, and who the undecided's vote for.

[kimmy]

Ipsos Reid has the Tories at 40% and the Libs at 29%, uh oh!! Just seen it on MDL.

Remember how gerryhatrick and friends were proclaiming the choice of Stephane Dion as a masterstroke, based on a couple of polls the week of the Liberal convention? Remember how if you thought the Liberal jump in the polls was just a temporary bump resulting from the convention, you were a terrified Conservative in denial? Remember how if you thought Stephane Dion's inability to speak english wasn't a liability you were a french-hating anti-french Anglosnobophone? Or how if you thought Stephane Dion had the charisma of a piece of Melba-toast, you were in denial? or ...

...well, let's just say it's been a rough couple of months for gerry.

-k

[jbg]

...well, let's just say it's been a rough couple of months for gerry.

-k

Or whatever screen name he's morphed into. I'm thinking something interplanetary.

[Canadian Blue]

Where is Gerryhatrick, or for that matter Normanchateau?

[August1991]

Remember how gerryhatrick and friends were proclaiming the choice of Stephane Dion as a masterstroke, based on a couple of polls the week of the Liberal convention? Remember how if you thought the Liberal jump in the polls was just a temporary bump resulting from the convention, you were a terrified Conservative in denial? Remember how if you thought Stephane Dion's inability to speak english wasn't a liability you were a french-hating anti-french Anglosnobophone? Or how if you thought Stephane Dion had the charisma of a piece of Melba-toast, you were in denial? or ...

Just over a year and a half ago, many credible people (and even many polls) were saying the same about Stephen Harper.

Remember when Belinda crossed the floor? Harper was the arrogant guy who lacked people-skills. He didn't have the talent to be a politician and furthermore he lead a party of loose cannons, out of touch with Canadian mainstream values.

That was then, this is now.

IMV, Stephan Dion has more spunk and ambition than anyone within posting distance of this forum. I wouldn't count the guy out just yet - certainly not because of a few polls. And certainly not because of a few opinions of largely conservative posters on an Internet forum based in Lethbridge.

[kimmy]

IMV, Stephan Dion has more spunk and ambition than anyone within posting distance of this forum. I wouldn't count the guy out just yet - certainly not because of a few polls. And certainly not because of a few opinions of largely conservative posters on an Internet forum based in Lethbridge.

Of course not. Nobody's declaring Dion finished yet. Just taking a moment to gloat about how dramatically wrong Gerry's predictions have been... particularly the scorn directed at those who suggested the Liberal boost in popularity was just a temporary result of the leadership convention.

The other prediction that Liberal boosters made repeatedly was "the Liberals are polling even with the Conservatives without a leader, so they're going to surge ahead once they've picked one." I argued that the "no leader" angle was something that might actually be helping the Liberals, based on the "door #3 principle" (which is that imagining there's something exciting and great behind Door #3 is a lot better than opening Door #3 and discovering that it's Stephane Dion.) And I think that has proven to be the case.

Can Dion still win the next election? Sure. But the notion that Canadians were excited about Dion has obviously proven false.

-k

[jdobbin]

Probe Research has done a large 1000 person sample poll for the Winnipeg Free Press.

Meanwhile, the federal Tories, Liberals and Greens are all making gains at the expense of the NDP in Manitoba, a Free Press/Probe Research Inc. poll has found.

The survey of the party horse-race within the province shows that falling NDP fortunes have left the Conservatives, Liberals and Greens with higher levels of support than they enjoyed on voting day in January 2006.

The shift in party support is not dramatic, but enough to open the door to seat changes within the province as talk of a possible spring federal election continues to have MPs on edge.

Probe's polls shows NDP support in Manitoba has fallen six points in the past year, while Harper's Tories have risen three points. Dion's Liberals are up one point while Elizabeth May's Greens have seen their support jump by two points -- both within the poll's margin of error.

"The NDP are the ones down the most conspicuously and the national polls are showing the same trend," said Scott MacKay, president of Probe Research.

There are some differences between rural and urban support.

Across the province, the Tories are well out in front with 46 per cent support. The Liberals are a distant second with 27 per cent support. Jack Layton's New Democrats are further back at 19 per cent.

But within Winnipeg, which represents eight of the province's 14 seats, the race is much tighter. The Winnipeg numbers show the Tories at 39 per cent, the Liberals at 29 per cent, and the NDP at 24 per cent. Outside Winnipeg, the Tories are at 57 per cent, the Liberals have 23 per cent support and the NDP 11 per cent.

MacKay said the rise in Tory support could help Harper hold Rod Bruinooge's Winnipeg South seat, which he narrowly stole from Liberal Reg Alcock. It could also potentially put Anita Neville's Liberal seat of Winnipeg South Centre in the Conservatives' sights.

While May has created plenty of buzz since taking over the Green leadership, MacKay said it is too early to tell if the party's support in Manitoba is a sign that the party will be a factor come next election.

[ScottSA]

Depending on what's in the "amendments" the CPC might very well want the bill to fall, even if it's by having a bunch of their members have family obligations.

Yup. The Cons would like nothing better than to be able to call an election and blame the opposition. I think the 'family obligation' scenario might be a bit transparent though, so it would be hard to use the budget as the trigger, but I suspect Harper will engineer some pretext in the very near future.

[Canuck E Stan]

Can Dion still win the next election? Sure. But the notion that Canadians were excited about Dion has obviously proven false.

-k

Sorta reminds me of the popularity of Al Gore, today the media is giving a different picture of Al after making him out to be the best climate scientist in the world.

I think the media has a lot to do to turning the popularity of any public figure on or off.

In December,Dion was turned on.

Today Dion has been turned off.

Maybe it's because he looks different in incandescent than in fluorescent.

[jdobbin]

Decima poll has federal Tories up in Quebec.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/070327/...nal/tories_poll

The poll suggested the Tories surpassed the Liberals there for the first time in five months, sitting at 25 per cent. The Bloc Quebecois came in at 34 per cent, the Liberals at 20 per cent, the Green Party at 10 per cent and the NDP at 5 per cent.

However, they are back in minority nationally.

Nationally, the Conservatives sat at 35 per cent in the poll, versus 31 for the Liberals, 13 per cent for the NDP and 10 per cent for the Green Party.

The poll of 1,000 adults was conducted between March 22 and March 25, the same week of the federal budget.

[Vancouver King]

Decima poll has federal Tories up in Quebec.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/070327/...nal/tories_poll

The poll suggested the Tories surpassed the Liberals there for the first time in five months, sitting at 25 per cent. The Bloc Quebecois came in at 34 per cent, the Liberals at 20 per cent, the Green Party at 10 per cent and the NDP at 5 per cent.

However, they are back in minority nationally.

Nationally, the Conservatives sat at 35 per cent in the poll, versus 31 for the Liberals, 13 per cent for the NDP and 10 per cent for the Green Party.

The poll of 1,000 adults was conducted between March 22 and March 25, the same week of the federal budget.

In all these analysis no one acknowledges a potentially significant factor for the Liberals. Faced with the stark reality of a Harper majority, legions of New Democrats could answer Dion's eleventh hour call to unite the left and halt the hated Tories. The stench of Liberal corruption has largely dissipated and many socialists remain distrustful of a majority Harper agenda, leaving them disposed to cast strategic votes.

This dynamic is a certainty, only it's dimensions are in doubt. I am guessing this factor adds 2% to any Liberal polling number.

[jdobbin]

In all these analysis no one acknowledges a potentially significant factor for the Liberals. Faced with the stark reality of a Harper majority, legions of New Democrats could answer Dion's eleventh hour call to unite the left and halt the hated Tories. The stench of Liberal corruption has largely dissipated and many socialists remain distrustful of a majority Harper agenda, leaving them disposed to cast strategic votes.

This dynamic is a certainty, only it's dimensions are in doubt. I am guessing this factor adds 2% to any Liberal polling number.

It looks like Ontario was a major factor in this polls overall numbers. Things are certainly fluid. In Ontario though, it looks like some of the Tory vote has slipped, not the NDP.

And in Ontario, the Liberals were ahead in the most recent survey at 41 per cent to the Conservatives' 33 per cent. The NDP were at 14 per cent and the Green Party at 11 per cent in the province.

Anderson says too much has been made of "relatively modest" improvements in the polls for the Conservatives lately.

"Because there are so many choices and permutations, and so much clustering around the centre for the two main parties, there's going to be more volatility and there has been more volatility over the past couple of years than we've seen before," Anderson said.

[ScottSA]

Seems to me that what's relevant from all these numbers is that fear of the right has largely disappeared. I question the idea that the stench of Liberal corruption has dissipated...I suspect it'll start to waft as soon as the campaign gets rolling, but we'll see when that happens. One thing seems clear though, and that's that the Libs have lost their biggest and most successful club: the sCArY!!1! RihgTWinG!!!1! card. The terror just isn't there anymore, and any move by the Libs to revive it will probably backfire. I think people are fairly comfortable with the assumption that a Harper majority isn't going to turn into the Third Reich.

[jdobbin]

Seems to me that what's relevant from all these numbers is that fear of the right has largely disappeared. I question the idea that the stench of Liberal corruption has dissipated...I suspect it'll start to waft as soon as the campaign gets rolling, but we'll see when that happens. One thing seems clear though, and that's that the Libs have lost their biggest and most successful club: the sCArY!!1! RihgTWinG!!!1! card. The terror just isn't there anymore, and any move by the Libs to revive it will probably backfire. I think people are fairly comfortable with the assumption that a Harper majority isn't going to turn into the Third Reich.

The terror might not be there but neither is the love.

This poll says minority. Call an election at your peril should be the message between the lines.

[ScottSA]

Really though, these pre-election polls are fairly meaningless. I mean it's shifted in Ontario by 10 points in a week and 20 points in Quebec, and the reason its so fluid is that most people just pick the name they heard last when some idiot phones them up to ask who they like this week. More important things are on their mind. They focus a bit more a little closer to the election, and that's when the polls matter. Increasingly, those polls are better indicators of momentum even DURING an election than they are of what the result is likely to be. We saw that in Quebec yesterday.

[blueblood]

Maybe Harper was making the smart choice all along in stating he didn't want an election. Maybe he wants to be in office long enough for people to truly get warmed up to him. He's polled 30-40% for the last however long and maybe Harper thinks the polls are too volatile to call an election.

[jdobbin]

Really though, these pre-election polls are fairly meaningless. I mean it's shifted in Ontario by 10 points in a week and 20 points in Quebec, and the reason its so fluid is that most people just pick the name they heard last when some idiot phones them up to ask who they like this week. More important things are on their mind. They focus a bit more a little closer to the election, and that's when the polls matter. Increasingly, those polls are better indicators of momentum even DURING an election than they are of what the result is likely to be. We saw that in Quebec yesterday.

It think the polls were fairly accurate about what was going to happen in Quebec.

I certainly am not going to blame the people who take the polls for the results. The sea of politics is pushing people to and fro. A budget changes the numbers, a stupid comment may have changed them back.

What was clear was that a few days ago, we had some Conservative cheerleaders counting their chickens over two polls.

[jdobbin]

Maybe Harper was making the smart choice all along in stating he didn't want an election. Maybe he wants to be in office long enough for people to truly get warmed up to him. He's polled 30-40% for the last however long and maybe Harper thinks the polls are too volatile to call an election.

I'm wondering if the Taliban comment had any effect on this poll.

[Vancouver King]

Last night's Quebec election served up something for everyone. Just as I surmised that Charest's set back would rub off on his Ottawa Tory patron, along came Craig Oliver on CTV assuring all that the big winner of the evening was Stephen Harper.

The ADQ wants autonomy for Quebec. In Craig Oliver's universe this is, apparently, right up the Tories alley.

[blueblood]

Maybe Harper was making the smart choice all along in stating he didn't want an election. Maybe he wants to be in office long enough for people to truly get warmed up to him. He's polled 30-40% for the last however long and maybe Harper thinks the polls are too volatile to call an election.

I'm wondering if the Taliban comment had any effect on this poll.

Doubt it. Canadians who like a snappy leader would have gravitated, and Canadians who want a PC leader would have switched, most likely would have cancelled each other out. It's hard for me to realize that there are on the fence voters, it would take a complete disaster for me to abandon the Tories. I find it odd that people are that fickle to switch voting intentions back and forth over the course of a few weeks. Well I guess I'm a hack then. Ha Ha.

[Michael Bluth]

Last night's Quebec election served up something for everyone. Just as I surmised that Charest's set back would rub off on his Ottawa Tory patron, along came Craig Oliver on CTV assuring all that the big winner of the evening was Stephen Harper.

The ADQ wants autonomy for Quebec. In Craig Oliver's universe this is, apparently, right up the Tories alley.

Here is why the results were a good sign for Harper's Conservatives.

Those ADQ voters are a good barometer fo the support the CPC will get in the coming election.

The poll also put the CPC up 8 points in Ontario.

Definitely within sniffing distance of a majority...