Canadian Political Polls

[Argus]

Latest Ipsos Reid poll.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/070224/...poll_canada_col

The Ipsos-Reid poll, published in the National Post newspaper on Saturday, put support for the Conservatives at 36 percent, compared with 34 percent for the opposition Liberals.

That more or less reverses the positions in a previous Ipsos-Reid poll in January, which put the Conservatives at 33 percent and the Liberals at 37 percent.

Not really close for a majority despite what some here think. It still isn't beyond the realm that someone will pull the plug though. I really don't think that Harper is looking forward to spring in Afghanistan.

I wonder how many Liberals are...

[jdobbin]

I wonder how many Liberals are...

I think whoever is the government or becomes the government will have to contend with Afghanistan. If Dion does become prime minister in this year, he will be held to account for keeping our troops in southern Afghanistan. If it is another minority government, he could fall himself on the subject of casualties and stability in Afghanistan.

I'm aware that what you are trying to say is that you think Liberals want Canadian soldiers to die just for political reasons. Some have said Harper wants them to die for the same reason. I say it is nonsense on both accounts.

I'd prefer that Afghanistan become stable or at the very least we have more support from our so called allies. I don't want Canada to be there and in the thick of fighting two years from now with people saying we have no choice but to fight for year after year.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Canada needs a foreign policy, so much so that Canadians ought to be putting some pressure on its political leadership to do so. I am not taking about the whims of the government of the day, but instead a policy created by Canadians and for Canadians that can be incorporated into a citizen ratified constitution.

Something along the lines of;

The free individuals of the nation of Canada offer political and humanitarian support to all citizens and nations that seek to preserve and promote free will and democracy, to the extent they we are capable of providing.

[jbg]

Truthfully, Harper and his government are going no where, with the Canadian public. And MORE importantly, not even in Alberta. Now how telling is that?

I agree. They'd have a very hard time picking up more AB seats.

[blueblood]

Apparently they're doing pretty good in Ontario now

cbc

[White Doors]

Whoop Whoop!

A new poll suggests Stephen Harper's Conservatives are surging ahead of the Liberals, even in the crucial province of Ontario, where Liberals have long held an advantage.

The Decima Research poll released Thursday showed the Conservatives held 36 per cent support nationally, which is similar to the Tories' numbers when they gained power just over a year ago.

The Liberals' support fell to 27 per cent, well below the mid-30s the party held shortly after electing Stéphane Dion leader in December.

In Ontario, the Tories also surged to 40 per cent support this week, compared to 32 per cent for the Liberals, 15 per cent for the NDP and 13 per cent for the Green Party.

The survey of just over 1,000 Canadians was conducted between Feb. 22 and Feb. 26, with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The numbers suggest the prime minister and his party are succeeding in convincing women, urban and Ontario voters that the Tories are a moderate rather than hard-right government, Decima CEO Bruce Anderson said.

[Canadian Blue]

For some reason I have a feeling the Liberal's are starting to regret picking Stephane Dion over the other leadership contenders. Harper's successful because he seems to be much more moderate then many voters believed he would be. As well the Green's are picking up more support, and it appears that they are tied with the NDP.

[geoffrey]

Apparently they're doing pretty good in Ontario now

cbc

The CPC isn't doing great, but their support is high enough to gain a few seats... the Liberals are in an absolute nose dive in Ontario. A 9 point gap? Ouch.

An election campaign right now favours the CPC strongly, they have a list of short sound bite accomplishments that people like to hear. An attractive budget, even better. All Dion has is a strong anti-Harper position on everything, it makes him look like an idiot in all honesty though. Calling the Conservatives neo-cons with a Republican agenda is absurd, most Canadians get that, and they'll send a message to the Liberals to shape up in the next election.

[Shakeyhands]

Latest Ipsos Reid poll.

I really don't think that Harper is looking forward to spring in Afghanistan.

I wonder how many Liberals are...

Ok... you win.

[jdobbin]

Decima poll shows Tories have 9% lead.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...0301?hub=Canada

After months of running neck and neck in the polls, the Conservatives appear to have opened up a big lead over the slumping Liberals.

A Decima Research survey, released to The Canadian Press, put Tory support at 36 per cent nationally, back up to where the minority government was just over a year ago when it won power.

The Liberals polled 27 per cent, down from the 30 per cent they earned in the last election and even further from the mid-30s popularity they held shortly after Stephane Dion became leader in December.

The Green party jumped to 12 per cent, putting it in a virtual dead heat with the NDP, which polled 13 per cent.

Both the NDP and Liberals are losing support to the Greens. Looks like the Tories are picking up support in Ontario. They're still doing poorly in Quebec.

[Martin Chriton]

Those polls aren't a surprise. Dion was a really bad choice for the Liberals, I don't know a single Liberal that likes him. It'll take some major Harper screw ups to turn this around for Dion.

The only thing that surprised me was the increasing Green support. Hopefully they'll manage to get a few seats in the next election.

[Canadian Blue]

Dion has been getting bad press, even with the vote in which all Liberal MP's were supposed to vote against extending terror legislation an MP openly defied him. I don't see his leadership really improving unless something miraculous happen's.

Either way though, the Liberal's would have been better off with either Ignatieff, Rae, or Kennedy.

[jdobbin]

Those polls aren't a surprise. Dion was a really bad choice for the Liberals, I don't know a single Liberal that likes him. It'll take some major Harper screw ups to turn this around for Dion.

The only thing that surprised me was the increasing Green support. Hopefully they'll manage to get a few seats in the next election.

It's possible they will break through. Problem is their support is spread extremely thin across the country. Unlike the NDP's vote which is concentrated in certain ridings.

[jdobbin]

Dion has been getting bad press, even with the vote in which all Liberal MP's were supposed to vote against extending terror legislation an MP openly defied him. I don't see his leadership really improving unless something miraculous happen's.

Either way though, the Liberal's would have been better off with either Ignatieff, Rae, or Kennedy.

You say that now but during the leadership convention, people were saying all and any Liberal leader was going to do poorly.

I'm still not convinced that the Tories are running away with a majority right now. There are a few other polls coming in the next several days. We'll see what the trend is.

[Slavik44]

It's possible they will break through. Problem is their support is spread extremely thin across the country. Unlike the NDP's vote which is concentrated in certain ridings.

That is very true and it is unlikely the greens will walk away with any seats, but we have to realize that the greens ran last election with only 5% support and are now polling 10-13%. It would be interesting to see the demographics of where this new 5% comes from. Is it also spread out? Or is it focused in certain regions? Its tough to call because the fringe vote usually is very spread out, but what happens when a fringe party starts to push into the mainstream?

[blueblood]

It's possible they will break through. Problem is their support is spread extremely thin across the country. Unlike the NDP's vote which is concentrated in certain ridings.

That is very true and it is unlikely the greens will walk away with any seats, but we have to realize that the greens ran last election with only 5% support and are now polling 10-13%. It would be interesting to see the demographics of where this new 5% comes from. Is it also spread out? Or is it focused in certain regions? Its tough to call because the fringe vote usually is very spread out, but what happens when a fringe party starts to push into the mainstream?

The greens taking away support from the libs with support thinly spread is a good thing. They take away votes from the left and it just makes it that much easier for the tories.

[jdobbin]

The greens taking away support from the libs with support thinly spread is a good thing. They take away votes from the left and it just makes it that much easier for the tories.

What makes you think the Greens are left? Their last leader was a former Conservative.

[jdobbin]

That is very true and it is unlikely the greens will walk away with any seats, but we have to realize that the greens ran last election with only 5% support and are now polling 10-13%. It would be interesting to see the demographics of where this new 5% comes from. Is it also spread out? Or is it focused in certain regions? Its tough to call because the fringe vote usually is very spread out, but what happens when a fringe party starts to push into the mainstream?

The pollster said their support is coming from all parties. Greens support in Alberta is higher than say...the Maritimes.

[blueblood]

The greens taking away support from the libs with support thinly spread is a good thing. They take away votes from the left and it just makes it that much easier for the tories.

What makes you think the Greens are left? Their last leader was a former Conservative.

Their tossing piles of money towards the environment, a lot of lefties tend to like that.

[jdobbin]

Their tossing piles of money towards the environment, a lot of lefties tend to like that.

A lot of conservative governments too. Witness California, B.C., Japan. etc.

[scribblet]

Dion has been getting bad press, even with the vote in which all Liberal MP's were supposed to vote against extending terror legislation an MP openly defied him. I don't see his leadership really improving unless something miraculous happen's.

Either way though, the Liberal's would have been better off with either Ignatieff, Rae, or Kennedy.

http://bourque.org/ has a poll on that today, I bet they are gnashing their teeth over the choice of leader now

One thing I think this recent poll tells us is that people who post on line, or at least the radical anti Harper variety of which MLW has at least two, are not representative of the general public. I would think that much of the rhetoric we see posted here is not representative either, and most people don't buy into it, they are more reasonable.

[blueblood]

Their tossing piles of money towards the environment, a lot of lefties tend to like that.

A lot of conservative governments too. Witness California, B.C., Japan. etc.

The states is either right or far right. The environment is #1 on the greens agenda. Do much die hard supporters of the CPC care much about the environment? The thing is the tories aren't losing out to them, the Liberals are. With left minded voters having a choice b/w three parties, it makes it that much easier for the tories.

[Canadian Blue]

While it may look like another conservative government at the moment, nothing is for certain as things can change quickly. However so far I haven't really seen much of Dion besides him constantly going on anti-Harper rants. I think most Canadian's aren't really that interested in what he has to offer, because so far he hasn't offered much of anything.

[jdobbin]

http://bourque.org/ has a poll on that today, I bet they are gnashing their teeth over the choice of leader now

One thing I think this recent poll tells us is that people who post on line, or at least the radical anti Harper variety of which MLW has at least two, are not representative of the general public. I would think that much of the rhetoric we see posted here is not representative either, and most people don't buy into it, they are more reasonable.

You've just linked to the same poll that has already been posted here and in far less detail.

It's funny that Bourque says Liberals are in freefall when it looks like the Greens are about to eclipse the NDP.

The CTV link also says that three weeks of tracking including this poll shows things are still too close to call. Quebec remains very weak for the Tories.

The Liberals are weaker in Ontario.

The radical anti-Dion variety of which MLW has at least two, are not representative of the general public.

[scribblet]

I was linking to Bourques on line leadership poll, I didn't notice it posted here beforel

Not only that, the Conservatives are leading liberals 40% to 38% in ONTARIO - the CBC folks are apoplectic - Liberals could see their numbers go down even more because of the terror vote, so maybe they will have to support the budget and ward off an election.