CdnFox Posted March 10 Report Posted March 10 after listening to Carney's speech I'm fairly convinced he intends to go to an election right away. In fairness he either had to go right away or somehow try and work a deal to wait till end of next year and that would have been tricky. But it got me thinking that it would be stupid of him to be sworn in as the liberal leader and prime minister if he is about to go to an election immediately. It would tie him to the Trudeau liberals and their years of failure. That doesn't help his message of change. And it takes time to be actually sworn in - that may not be to his liking. .He may want to go right now while the iron is hot. So it made me wonder if what we'll see is Monday Justin Trudeau go to visit the GG and call an election. Before carney is even installed as leader. Carney goes literally from the leadership race directly into a campaign. The liberals could put forward an 'interim prime minister' or trudeau could technically stay on till the election is over (but that'd be a bad idea) and Carney can run without any direct ties to the current administration and he can start his campaign tomorrow and try to catch the others off guard. Call for a short 5 week campaign and hit the ground running. That has never been done before in Canadian history but just off the top of my head i can't see a reason why he woudln't be able to do it that way legally. So there's my crazy prediction for the night Tomorrow (maybe tuesday) trudeau calls an election before carney can be sworn in as prime minister and 5 weeks from now we go to the polls. 1 Quote
Legato Posted March 10 Report Posted March 10 14 minutes ago, CdnFox said: after listening to Carney's speech I'm fairly convinced he intends to go to an election right away. In fairness he either had to go right away or somehow try and work a deal to wait till end of next year and that would have been tricky. But it got me thinking that it would be stupid of him to be sworn in as the liberal leader and prime minister if he is about to go to an election immediately. It would tie him to the Trudeau liberals and their years of failure. That doesn't help his message of change. And it takes time to be actually sworn in - that may not be to his liking. .He may want to go right now while the iron is hot. So it made me wonder if what we'll see is Monday Justin Trudeau go to visit the GG and call an election. Before carney is even installed as leader. Carney goes literally from the leadership race directly into a campaign. The liberals could put forward an 'interim prime minister' or trudeau could technically stay on till the election is over (but that'd be a bad idea) and Carney can run without any direct ties to the current administration and he can start his campaign tomorrow and try to catch the others off guard. Call for a short 5 week campaign and hit the ground running. That has never been done before in Canadian history but just off the top of my head i can't see a reason why he woudln't be able to do it that way legally. So there's my crazy prediction for the night Tomorrow (maybe tuesday) trudeau calls an election before carney can be sworn in as prime minister and 5 weeks from now we go to the polls. That will depend on the climate.😉 1 Quote
CdnFox Posted March 10 Author Report Posted March 10 44 minutes ago, Legato said: That will depend on the climate.😉 Either way this is probably going to be one of the shorter threads i've ever started Quote
West Posted March 10 Report Posted March 10 They will probably just snatch power by declaring a national emergency. Quote
SpankyMcFarland Posted March 10 Report Posted March 10 The direction of the polls favours Carney at the moment. His party is still behind but heading upwards at a good clip. Why not try to capitalize on that, look prime ministerial for a few months while sparring with an incredibly unpopular foreign adversary and then go? Quote
CdnFox Posted March 10 Author Report Posted March 10 2 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said: The direction of the polls favours Carney at the moment. His party is still behind but heading upwards at a good clip. Why not try to capitalize on that, look prime ministerial for a few months while sparring with an incredibly unpopular foreign adversary and then go? Looks like they've already capped and they have even slid a bit. That was to be expected, you always get a flash in the pan for a new leader. Look at Kamala Harris. The way the poles are settling down right now does look a little better than it did under Justin. Looks like the liberals have about 28 % and the CPC has about 43% and the NDP is somewhere in the neighborhood of 12 to 14. Which means that there is some soft conservative vote that still isn't convinced that carney is a good idea having taken a couple of second looks at him. A good campaign could start to theoretically win some of them back but it would be very difficult. I would point out that the rallies held on this weekend were a standard rally for Poilievre and a massive leadership rally for the liberals including some old faces that are hyper-popular and the Poilievre rally was still considerably larger. Campaigns matter but he would have to chip away at that vote. And considering his policies are the same that's going to be a challenge the NDP are basically abandoning their party to jump on the liberal train to try and get carney in and that's where most of the new liberal support that's actually sticky seems to be coming from. Which means Carney in particular and the liberals in general will be targets for the NDP which will put a lot of pressure on him, and if his polling numbers fall during the campaign and people don't think he can beat the conservatives then chances are they'll begin to move back to the NDP. Having said that carney has a certain amount of momentum and if he can think of a way to translate that into additional momentum he could outperform. Also you can bet that the CBC will be very aggressively looking for opportunities to make him look good and Poilievre look bad. But definitely time is not his friend, he has a little momentum right now, if he's got a good plan and a good team he should immediately go into an election and try and salvage as much of that new leader smell that he can and see if he can't turn it into if not a victory then at least a respectable defeat. 1 Quote
ExFlyer Posted March 11 Report Posted March 11 Probably correct, Carney will not be PM. Gonna be fun to watch with PP in a minority fighting with Liberal/NDP and potentially Bloc Québécois . Quote Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But you are not entitled to your own facts.
CdnFox Posted March 11 Author Report Posted March 11 2 hours ago, ExFlyer said: Probably correct, Carney will not be PM. Gonna be fun to watch with PP in a minority fighting with Liberal/NDP and potentially Bloc Québécois . It was hilarious when harper did it But I'm more meant that he would not be made prime minister now before an election was called. I believe was that they were going to call an election before they even installed him fully as leader and before he took the mantle of prime minister. Not that he wouldn't win the election although I don't believe he will but that's not what I was talking about Looks like I'm running low on time. If it doesn't happen today or tomorrow then they'll probably have to install him as leader and then he becomes prime minister. It just didn't make sense for me for them to go that route and I thought they might take the opportunity for a blitzkrieg. Time is not their friend. Maybe there's some reason they couldn't make that happen, like maybe they haven't got their ducks in a row in the background yet Quote
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