The Enigma of Quebec City

[bush_cheney2004]

What do either of you know of Quebec City?

Have either of you thought about your arrogance? You both seem to speak quickly about subjects of which you know little. You are both typical Americans. I am tired of listening to people with no knowledge of a subject adopt the topic to advance their own personal agenda.

...well, I know enough not to be caught for DWB in Quebec City.....Driving While Black!

[dizzy]

This recent CROP poll has an important message for English Canadians, in Ontario in particular. Harper (a WASP) has the support, at the federal level, of the heart of French North America.

When was this CROP poll taken? Leger and most of the Canada wide polls has the BQ dropping slightly and the libs rising.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/spector-vision/for-liberals-theres-good-polling-news-and-bad/article1468553/

Is Quebec starting to see a stronger future for asymmetrical federalism in Ignatieff? I think so.

Edited February 15, 2010 by dizzy

[fellowtraveller]

I'm surprised Duceppe has not quit yet.

He was rumoured to be gone right after the election in 2008. The invitation to hold the balance of power persuaded him to stay on, but that was a long time ago.

[August1991]

When was this CROP poll taken? Leger and most of the Canada wide polls has the BQ dropping slightly and the libs rising.

The Tories have been bouncing around 20% or so in Quebec for some time. That's not the story.

The story is that Tory support is centered around Quebec City, the Beauce and Lotbinière. This is where teh Créditistes and the Union Nationale were strong in the 1970s and where the ADQ did well before the last Quebec election.

Harper`s support in these areas is quite solid. He should keep his 10 seats. (To be exact, 8 seats. Cannon and Blackburn were elected elsewhere.)

From the Quebec perspective, whereas Joe Clark deliberately ignored Fabien Roy and the Créditistes, Brian Mulroney and Stephen Harper made an effort to include them.

I'm surprised Duceppe has not quit yet.

For 24 hours, he was a candidate to lead the PQ until Marois decided to run. I reckon that his ego yearns for more.

In many ways, being Bloc leader is a thankless task.

...well, I know enough not to be caught for DWB in Quebec City.....Driving While Black!

I don't know what you mean.

There is an ongoing investigation of a Montreal police shooting but the victim was not driving, nor was he black.

---

Bush_Cheney, if you want to raise the question of minority/majority relations, Canada can take pride on such a difficult question. On this point, we Canadians have few lessons to learn from you Americans.

Edited February 17, 2010 by August1991

[Michael Hardner]

... and Stephen Harper made an effort to include them.

And how did he do that ?

Thanks for this, btw, very surprising to hear about Harper's popularity in that part of Canada.

I am discouraged, though, that so much is written about strategy and so little about policies.

[fellowtraveller]

For 24 hours, he was a candidate to lead the PQ until Marois decided to run. I reckon that his ego yearns for more.

There is no more: the golden ring of controlling the country as a separatist via the coalition was snatched away and won't be back anytime soon. He was drained and done before that yet still he hangs on. The Bloc will not gain seats in Quebec anytime soon either and the opposite is very likely. What is it that keeps him in his position now?

Not that he has an extensive list of accomplishment, but what does he hope to do now?

I also don';t think his backing away had much to do with Marois, rather it was realization that leading the PQ was a mugs game just now, Quebecois are not in a separating mood at the moment and he has spent a long time already in Opposition.

Edited February 17, 2010 by fellowtraveller

[dizzy]

The Tories have been bouncing around 20% or so in Quebec for some time. That's not the story.

The story is that Tory support is centered around Quebec City, the Beauce and Lotbinière. This is where teh Créditistes and the Union Nationale were strong in the 1970s and where the ADQ did well before the last Quebec election.

Harper`s support in these areas is quite solid. He should keep his 10 seats. (To be exact, 8 seats. Cannon and Blackburn were elected elsewhere.)

From the Quebec perspective, whereas Joe Clark deliberately ignored Fabien Roy and the Créditistes, Brian Mulroney and Stephen Harper made an effort to include them.

While I didn't vote for him, I do live in the riding that elected Cannon. I appreciate Harper's appeal in the Québec metro region, especially in areas like Beauce. The success of the ADQ in the eastern ridings demonstrates that there is plenty of space for a federalist conservative party in Quebec if it is willing to support the nationalist plan. Indeed, I think Ignatieff could accomplish the same if the libs find the courage to articulate a vision for greater provincial powers like Paul Martin did.

[August1991]

And how did he do that ?

Harper hired Josée Verner as a staffer when she lost. He put Maxim Bernier into a senior position. He recognized Quebec as a nation.

Above all, Harper spoke honestly, accent and WASP, when he was in small motel conference halls around Quebec City.

Harper showed that he had an open mind about this country.

Edited February 20, 2010 by August1991

[August1991]

Selon le plus récent sondage Crop, le PCC de Stephen Harper reste premier dans la région de Québec, malgré le fait que ce parti ne pointe qu’à la 4e place à l’échelle de la province.

À 37% dans cette région (environ le même résultat qu’en 2011), ce parti y est environ trois fois plus élevé que dans le reste du Québec (13%). Ainsi, en terme de concentration du vote, la situation du PCC et similaire à celle de QS à Montréal. Cette concentration permettrait au PCC de récolter 7 sièges selon les projections basées sur ce sondage (note : je sais que les simulateurs ne sont plus disponibles. C’est en raison du nouveau site du JdM et je ne peux pas corriger cela pour l’instant. Mais les simulateurs reviendront).

Link

This means in effect that the Tories may add a few seats in Quebec. At present, they have 5.

Two other details: the article points out rightly that the Conservative support in Quebec City is similar to the QS support in Montreal. Second, while the Liberals/NDP seem to be 50/50 for remaining seats, I would not be surprised to see a (partial) collapse in NDP support in Quebec and a large shift to the Liberals. IOW, a scenario like 8 CPC, 35 NDP, 35 Lib is possible as well as 8 CPC, 15 NDP, 55 Lib. The BQ will get nothing.

[overthere]

Link

This means in effect that the Tories may add a few seats in Quebec. At present, they have 5.

Two other details: the article points out rightly that the Conservative support in Quebec City is similar to the QS support in Montreal. Second, while the Liberals/NDP seem to be 50/50 for remaining seats, I would not be surprised to see a (partial) collapse in NDP support in Quebec and a large shift to the Liberals. IOW, a scenario like 8 CPC, 35 NDP, 35 Lib is possible as well as 8 CPC, 15 NDP, 55 Lib. The BQ will get nothing.

Derivative and easily predicted.

The question that should and does matter to Quebec is: will the next federal government need Quebec seats to form a majority?

The NDP will obviously be the biggest losers in Quebec, the only question is is how many and to which party?