The Liberal Downfall

[Hicksey]

1. The Gomery Commission.

I think that regardless of the outcome, people were looking to punish the Liberals for their corruption. But I also think that a lot of Canadians were frustrated with the lack of justice gained from it. Nobody went to jail, there is still $40 million in unaccounted for funds and seven party members that took the money into the Liberal Party that still haven't been named. Even though Paul Martin thinks he's should gain much credit for calling the commission, people do not agree in large part because they are unsatisfied with the results.

2. The Income Trust Scandal.

As Paul Martin was standing up in front of Canadians professing to be cleaning up Ottawa, another scandal appears right under his nose--in his own party and his own cabinet. I think this severely undermined his claims that he was the best suited candidate to tackle the ethical problems plaguing Ottawa. If that weren't enough, many Canadians were aghast that Ralph Goodale wasn't asked to step aside as Finance Minister until the investigation moved in a different direction as it appears to have done now. Goodale didn't have to lose his seat or anything like that, but I think asking him to step aside for the 10 days or so that his involvement was in question it would have gone a long ways toward establishing Martin as being on the right side of the battle against corruption. Not asking Goodale to step aside I think is one of the grave mistakes Martin made and it cost him dearly.

3. The Military Ad.

I'm not sure who leaked that ad, but I'm sure that when Martin gets done with him he'll be lucky to get work at McDonalds. I honestly believe the ad was leaked by accident. I am sure the reason the ad wasn't pulled in Quebec was because they had already bit the political bullet so they may as well have run it in one of the two language arenas to determine its effectiveness or lack thereof--there was nothing to lose by it at that point and since the english media reacted so badly to it, the french market became the default. What I think this ad did was open the possibility that Harper was right, that much of Martin's accusations were fear-mongering and that maybe Harper wasn't as radical as he was once believed to be. It opened a sliver of light for Harper to jump into and he did so all at once. This was the other really painful nail in Martin's campaign.

Because of the factors above, I believe that Canadians want to punish the Liberals so bad that if Harper had guaranteed not to touch either gay marriage or abortion very early in his campaign he would be flirting with about 175-185 seats and a strong majority.

What's your take?

[betsy]

Corruptions

Military Ad

His desperate attempt at damage control....where-in he kept contradicting himself.

[Montgomery Burns]

If I have to pick off your list, I would pick #2 first (another financial scandal and Goodale refused to do the traditional thing--he refused to step aside while the investigation was going on), then #3. The military ad created sympathy for Harper, much like the fake Rathergate memos created sympathy for Bush. Martin's stammering flip-flops on whether he did or did not approve the ad was pathetic.

I would have liked to have seen a #4--Scott Reid's "beer and popcorn" remark was deeply insulting to the public. And later in the day, John Duffy went on CTV's Question Period and defended Reid's remark.

Did the Chretien Liberals sabatoge the Martin campaign? Warren Kinsella's "musings" read like a Tory website and Sheila Copp's op-eds have been anti-Martin.

It is surprising that the Liberals are in the high 20s. They have looked like amateurs compared to the CP.

[BigGunner]

The Liberal downfall came with Paul Martin himself. His bitter, divisive takeover of the Liberal party was enough to fracture any party. He couldn't wait to be the Prime Minister that he'd crush everyone in his way to get there. Every other incident can be traced back to that moment. That was the beginning of the end of the Liberals - and if they lose as badly as I think, they could be in for years of repairs. I'd hate to be a liberal member.

[BigGunner]

...It is surprising that the Liberals are in the high 20s. They have looked like amateurs compared to the CP.

They have looked like amateurs compared to the NDP!!!

HAHAHA

[sage]

All of your comments had be directly traced to one thing: lack of accountability.

When it come to Gomery, the other guys did it.

The income trust scandal, just ignore it.

The military ad. Rather then simply saying it was in poor taste and should never have been done in the first place, he says:

a) It is a justifiable ad.

He doesn't have to discuss it because it never ran.

c) He approved it. Goodale says he never approved it. Then Martin says he only approved the transcript.

All of this could have been dealt with by acknowledging the tastelessness of the ad and saying it was a mistake. Instead he starts to lie and looks like an idiot.

I would also ad one more gaff to your list, the notwithstanding clause nonsense.

[Leafless]

My take is not on your list-

And that is advocating a system similar to communism begining with Trudeau!

Isn't it amazing that the Liberals lasted so long and whats even worse is the people who made them last this long.

[tml12]

My take is not on your list-

And that is advocating a system similar to communism begining with Trudeau!

Isn't it amazing that the Liberals lasted so long and whats even worse is the people who made them last this long.

The Liberals have been successful for so long because we are a country that is defined by what we are not (Americans) rather than what we are.

I remember taking a Canadian Cultures class in school years ago. We were asked to draw maps of Canada that defined what this country was to each student (as opposed to just drawing the provinces, etc.)

Most of the maps were just silly drawings of the prairies with farmers and Quebec with maple syrup, etc. But one student drew a map of Canada all in red with devil's horns on top and bleeding into the U.S.

The image stuck with me for years...we are not a country defined by a certain culture. Instead, all we say wherever we are in this country is that "We are not Americans." In recent years, the Liberals played this message over and over and over and we bought it. "Americans don't like us," etc. and other crap.

I spent time living in the States and realized that Americans don't dislike Canadians, they are just frustrated (and many times) quite ignorant of this country. And the Liberals like it like that.

Well I don't. Anytime someone says, "We are respected around the world." I say, "No we are not." The Liberal Party has reduced us to such second-tier status that other countries do not know what to think of us. They created our social programs then they cut them. They created our myths and let us face the harsh reality of their falsity.

So why am I voting Conservative? Because Canada deserves to be strong again. We should work with the Americans who don't hate us, but rather want a closer partnership with us. And most of all, we need a government that won't lie to us because they want power and a legacy.

Is the Liberal Party finished? I doubt it, but I would like to keep their MPs out of 24 Sussex for years to come...

[Hicksey]

Great thoughts everyone! Especially the two other gaffes I missed.

When I get back from voting I'll give you my take on the 4) NWC Nonsense. 5) Scott Reid.

[sage]

I actually would like to take back me previous post.

The question could more properly be asked, "What element of the Liberal camapign did not lead to the Liberal's demise?"

Honestly, when I got thinking about things some more, their whole campaign was just crazy. Did anyone see Martin's comments questioning Harper on his lack of international travel? I believe the comment was something (and I am not quoting) like "Stephen Harper has admitted to not travelling outside of North America. How can someone with such limited experience be the Prime Minister."

The problem was that Harper had travelled out of North America 3 times in the last 9 months, all of them with Martin!

My point in including this comment in this thread is that Martin really has no credibility at all and this perhaps more then anything led to his downfall.

Lastly, we may be a little premature in implying that the Liberals are defeated. If there's anythng I've learned in the past its not to underestimate the stupidity and gullability of the Canadian electorate.

[Harare]

I would add a few other items.

#5 The media could always be counted on to sway hordes of Lemmings to vote Liberal.

This time they had only PC platform announcements to report on before christmas.

And after christmas they had plenty of Liberal dirt and gaffes to report on.

The bloggers forced them to be more balanced and honest.

#6 The Libs "ace in the hole" - attack ads were blunted and backfired. PC gaffes did not happen.

The RCMP factor - after Gommery the Libs could not afford a single hint of any more wrong doing - but they appeared almost daily.

The more Martin spoke and dithered the less Prime Ministerial he looked. eg NWC.

Net result - Fear Factor Failed

Which is how I feel about the Libs and the corrupt folks who still support the crooks - F F F !!

#7 The Quebec factor

PC seats in Quebec - a renewed hope for Federalists in Quebec at the hands of an Anglo Albertan- go figure.

#8 The Toronto shootings = Crime factor is a huge item for vast numbers of law abiding, hard working voters just SEETHING at the Justice system built and run by Libs.

[kimmy]

In terms of campaign strategy, I think the Liberals' biggest mistake was not starting until after New Years. A number of writers have suggested that when Canadians got together with their families and friends over the holidays, they talked politics... and the Conservatives had given them a number of policies to talk about. The Liberals had given them nothing to talk about at that point, except for their own record.

But I think the crummy campaign is hardly the cause of the Liberal Downfall, it's just another symptom. I think thick books could (and will) be written about the downfall of the party, and I think it'll have a lot to do with Chretien, Martin, and Chretien Vs Martin. Commenting on Chretien is hardly fair because of my pure hate for Chretien's smug, arrogant, autocratic, confrontational style... but I think that problems in accountability during his reign (including and not limited to the sponsorship program) put the skeletons in the closet. With Paul Martin... he's just not a prime minister. I've written on that over and over again... others have done it better; Paul Wells in particular has written a couple of good essays about Martin's personal shortcomings. Warren Kinsella's quip that Martin is a perfect example of "the Peter Principle" is stunningly accurate.

-k

[cybercoma]

I think Canadians were mostly willing to look past the Gomery scandal as something that was perpetrated by a few "bad apples" of the Liberal Party and move on. The biggest problem with the Liberal campaign was that they handed the Conservatives the ball day after day until about 2 weeks ago. Paul Martin offered very little in terms of a platform, meanwhile Stephen Harper clearly outlined his entire policy before Martin even got started. To the average Canadian, Stephen Harper was bringing policy and leadership to the table, while Paul Martin was busy putting out fires. I believe if Martin ran a stronger campaign and tried to show that he could handle leadership and business while putting out the fires, he would've been re-elected. Canadians wanted to see that government could operate and get things accomplished throughout these scandals and the Liberal Party did not offer them that. Let's not count our chickens before they hatch though. You never know what will happen in the 12th hour.

[Hicksey]

Great thoughts everyone! Especially the two other gaffes I missed.

When I get back from voting I'll give you my take on the 4) NWC Nonsense. 5) Scott Reid.

4) The Nonsense of the Notwithstanding Clause.

I actually believe that this one was made up mid-debate by a frustrated Martin that wasn't able to get any real traction. Martin had previously promised to use the NWC himself to prevent churches and other religious from having to marry homosexuals should the supreme court rule as such. That's not to mention the landmark decision in Quebec regarding Canadians' access to private healthcare that the supreme court could use extend that decision to force the government to fund private healthcare or some other such ruling that could mean the end of public healthcare as we know it. Without the NWC our government would be powerless to guard our interests. Of all promises made this was Martin's most irresponsible by a long shot.

5) Scott Reid.

As much as Scott Reid's comments were inflammatory, they weren't really that bad in the grande scheme of things. Sure they made Reid look like an ass, but I don't think that even the Liberals are that arrogant. I think Martin would have looked better had he brought the axe down on him, but I don't think he hurt Martin as bad as some others think. I do think that between Reid and the Military ad, the Martin campaign opened the door to their own failure by letting people see that Harper likely wasn't as scary as he was being made out to be.

[geoffrey]

I'm completely responsible. My critical review of the Liberals in this forum alone has dissolved their support base by 10%.

[speaker]

I believe the Libs have suffered another cycle of arrogance, corruption, incompetence, and promise breaking. The same malaise that hit the last Conservative government, and the liberals before that, and the conservatives this time around. And all because there are people out there who are so partisan that they don't care if a better candidate comes along in their riding they will vote for a party. And a party will come to rely on that blind stupidity to protect them from the law, ethics commissioners, and the voters in the next election. Cycles keep going around and around but their is only one party on the wheel. ... it is the libcons.

I am a little dissapointed before the results even come in.

[tml12]

I believe the Libs have suffered another cycle of arrogance, corruption, incompetence, and promise breaking. The same malaise that hit the last Conservative government, and the liberals before that, and the conservatives this time around. And all because there are people out there who are so partisan that they don't care if a better candidate comes along in their riding they will vote for a party. And a party will come to rely on that blind stupidity to protect them from the law, ethics commissioners, and the voters in the next election. Cycles keep going around and around but their is only one party on the wheel. ... it is the libcons.

I am a little dissapointed before the results even come in.

That and Chretien using his Quebec team to get the vote out for the Conservatives.

It was in the paper today. Former Chretien Liberals are now working for the Quebec Conservative wing.

I mean, don't get me wrong. I don't care what he does as long as it helps the CPC. But it does show you what an odious jerk he is.

[Murray B.]

Do not think that you have power because you choose a name from a list. Real power lies with those that make the list.

This is a paraphrase of the words of the great Republican President, Teddy Roosevelt. He was the one that broke up the trusts (monopolies and oligopolies) and made utilities public. His ideas are timeless.

[Wilber]

I believe the Libs have suffered another cycle of arrogance, corruption, incompetence, and promise breaking. The same malaise that hit the last Conservative government, and the liberals before that, and the conservatives this time around. And all because there are people out there who are so partisan that they don't care if a better candidate comes along in their riding they will vote for a party. And a party will come to rely on that blind stupidity to protect them from the law, ethics commissioners, and the voters in the next election. Cycles keep going around and around but their is only one party on the wheel. ... it is the libcons.

I am a little dissapointed before the results even come in.

That and Chretien using his Quebec team to get the vote out for the Conservatives.

It was in the paper today. Former Chretien Liberals are now working for the Quebec Conservative wing.

I mean, don't get me wrong. I don't care what he does as long as it helps the CPC. But it does show you what an odious jerk he is.

Why on earth would the Conservatives want anything to do with the man responsible for Adscam. I hope they would have nothing to do with that scumbag.

[tml12]

I believe the Libs have suffered another cycle of arrogance, corruption, incompetence, and promise breaking. The same malaise that hit the last Conservative government, and the liberals before that, and the conservatives this time around. And all because there are people out there who are so partisan that they don't care if a better candidate comes along in their riding they will vote for a party. And a party will come to rely on that blind stupidity to protect them from the law, ethics commissioners, and the voters in the next election. Cycles keep going around and around but their is only one party on the wheel. ... it is the libcons.

I am a little dissapointed before the results even come in.

That and Chretien using his Quebec team to get the vote out for the Conservatives.

It was in the paper today. Former Chretien Liberals are now working for the Quebec Conservative wing.

I mean, don't get me wrong. I don't care what he does as long as it helps the CPC. But it does show you what an odious jerk he is.

Why on earth would the Conservatives want anything to do with the man responsible for Adscam. I hope they would have nothing to do with that scumbag.

They say they are "innocent." Oh well, they may not know it but by helping the CPC at least they are cleaning up government.

I do hope they put that jerk Chretien in jail though.

[kimmy]

The article doesn't say the CPC has joined forces with Jean Chretien. It says:

Among those who agreed to talk with The Gazette, the tale is remarkably similar. They would be backing Liberals right now if it weren't for the decision by Prime Minister Paul Martin's team to sideline them after he won the leadership of the party.

Each recounts how they were approached by the leadership team to back Martin but chose to either wait for Chretien to leave or backed another candidate.

In many cases, when they later offered their services, it was as if they had missed some imaginary deadline to back Martin and no longer were wanted.

Kinsella says the same. Martin's war within the party against the Chretienites has come back to bite him in the ass, rather literally.

While some say they are willing to stay with the Conservatives for a few years to see what the party can do, others make it clear they will only be with the Tories for as long as it takes to get a new Liberal leader.

Quebec journalist Michel Auger (is he the one who got shot by the Hell's Angels?) identifies what he believes are the 4 crucial moments of the campaign:

Mississauga, Dec. 1, 2005 -- Stephen Harper proposes to lower the GST: After his only really bad day of the campaign, when he was unable to come up with the names of his Quebec City candidates, Harper rebounds. He proposes to lower the GST to 6% immediately and 5% in the course of his mandate.

This was strategically brilliant because it reminded everyone of the Liberals' promise of the 1993 campaign to "scrap" the GST -- an infamous invention of the Mulroney government.

This promise is the start of a campaign in which Harper will set the agenda and the other parties will follow.

Quebec City, Dec. 19, 2005 -- Harper proposes his Quebec platform: This speech, given at the Quebec City Chamber of Commerce, is to be credited with the turnaround in Tory fortunes in Quebec during this campaign.

This is also the time Harper started attacking the Bloc Quebecois directly, accusing it of being a "spectator" in Ottawa, unable to solve problems or prevent scandals.

Ottawa, Dec. 29, 2005 -- The RCMP announces it has launched an investigation involving Finance Minister Ralph Goodale: This was probably the turning point in the campaign. Before, the Liberals and Conservatives were about tied in the polls; after this, the Tories took a lead they would never relinquish.

Montreal, Jan. 9, 2006 -- Martin proposes to scrap the "notwithstanding" clause of the Constitution: A constitutional amendment is a long and complicated process. This is a case where governments should seek consensus and not try to score political points. He proposed this policy in the middle of a leader's debate, showing how desperate the Liberals were.

Two strong tactical moves by Harper. One disasterously timed appearance of impropriety. And one boneheaded move by Martin.

-k

[tml12]

Hey Kimmy,

I did not mean to imply they "joined forces" with the CPC but rather that they are helping them in this election.

Overall, I think they are waiting for a new leader and then I'll be happy to see them go back to their old party.

[Canuck E Stan]

What do I think contributed to Martin's lack of success?

John Duffy/Scott Reid and a the Liberal crew of wantabees who thought Plan A from 2004 would replicate itself in 2006.

[tml12]

What do I think contributed to Martin's lack of success?

John Duffy/Scott Reid and a the Liberal crew of wantabees who thought Plan A from 2004 would replicate itself in 2006.

Apparently the Liberals don't know the old saying: "Fool me once..."

[scribblet]

What do I think contributed to Martin's lack of success?

John Duffy/Scott Reid and a the Liberal crew of wantabees who thought Plan A from 2004 would replicate itself in 2006.

Apparently the Liberals don't know the old saying: "Fool me once..."

I'd like to think that the voters finally saw through the arrogance and corruption, but mainly do not buy into the campaign of fear mongering. IMHO I think that ad they pulled contributed.

Fortunately Harper is a stellar and capable leader and will have similar people in his cabinet. This will be the opportunity to really show the voters how much the liberal campaign was based on innuendo, lies and fear. I think too that that voters are fed up with that kind of rhetoric.

We have interesting times ahead, but it would be nice to take a breather for a while and coast -