Trump's Poll Numbers Pose Challenge for Biden

[robosmith]

14 minutes ago, Deluge said:

Point out where I said it did. 

You posted a cite (rare, indeed) in the same post you laughed at "Harvard Poll."

Most (you esp) do not post irrelevant cites in combination with laughable claims.

AKA, you believed the cite was relevant to your claim, but it didn't prove anything you're claiming.

[impartialobserver]

Polling numbers this far out are not especially meaningful. This is akin to the "way too early top 25 rankings" sports experts issue for the upcoming year. These are done 6 to 7 months before the start of the season. 

[Fluffypants]

I am so tired about hearing about polls a year out, a whole lot can happen between now and then. Biden or Trump could die, they are both really old.

Trump could be found guilty and go to jail or be found guilty and win on appeals or he can even be found not guilty in all four cases and that will change the calculus.

We could find out that Biden was in fact corrupt as hell and taking money from foreign government for favors through his son

The economy could get better or we could fall into a recession with high unemployment that could change things.

Fact is polls in December a year before the election are useless.

[Deluge]

38 minutes ago, robosmith said:

You posted a cite (rare, indeed) in the same post you laughed at "Harvard Poll."

Most (you esp) do not post irrelevant cites in combination with laughable claims.

AKA, you believed the cite was relevant to your claim, but it didn't prove anything you're claiming.

YOU post irrelevant sites in conjunction with laughable claims every f*cking day. lol

What I did was point you to what looked to be a much better source than that left-wing rag you were using. 

Now, does my source say somewhere that it's superior to the Harvard poll? Of course not. Yet you, being the dumbass that you are, think I said that it does state that somewhere. 

Do you now understand how stoopid you are?

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, DUI_Offender said:

When a Presidential race is close, the incumbent has the advantage, since the people who are undecided tend to vote for what they are familiar with.  So the advantage definitely goes to Biden.

the incumbent usually enjoys the advantage before the election starts. In this case, it looks like biden isn't getting that benefit for whatever reason.

But the bigger concern for him has to be his approval trendline. He's trending much more like a preident who's been in for 7 years and people are tired of him. But it's just his first term.  Incumbents enjoy an advantage - right up until the public gets tired of them, and then it's a disadvantage. Which is why in canada most prime ministers get a second full term but very rarely a third.

And for whatever reason biden's numbers look like there's voter fatigue already.

As things stand right now, just under a year away from the election, biden looks like he's sinking a bit and trump looks like he's risen but now has hit a plateau and isn't advancing.  I would say based on the numbers and statistical history trump has a slight advantage.  But - it is FAR from decisive and if things remain the same it will definitely come down to the better campaign.

The only other advantage potentially that trump has is that he'll have to win the nomination. That tends to generate a little excitement and he gets to be in the papers a lot and will probably enjoy a lot of victories and that makes him look good. But - that only goes so far.  He's going to have to widen his appeal, he's basically hit  a ceiling and he'll have a struggle if he can't go at least a little higher.

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, robosmith said:

Your posted evidence does not say that Harvard polls are unreliable.

It says that Biden is leading based on the consensus of MULTIPLE POLLS. Duh.

Thanks for that.

It does show the harvard poll is inaccurate. 

ANd it doesn't show biden is leading - biden cannot win with the numbers he has.

remember - if you have trouble counting just take off your mittens

[NAME REMOVED]

5 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

the incumbent usually enjoys the advantage before the election starts. In this case, it looks like biden isn't getting that benefit for whatever reason.

It's 11 months from the election. I'm referring to the undecided voters in the final week of the election, who tend to vote for the incumbent. 

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, impartialobserver said:

Polling numbers this far out are not especially meaningful. This is akin to the "way too early top 25 rankings" sports experts issue for the upcoming year. These are done 6 to 7 months before the start of the season. 

Individual polls aren't meaningfull but multiple polls over time show trend lines and much can be gleaned from those. Which is why political parties pay close attention to them and pay for their own polling on top.

The trends appear to be biden sinking a bit more, voters aren't happy with him at all, and trump has gained support but has hit a ceiling and isn't picking up new people but isn't losing old ones.

Biden has to find a way to restore confidence or he'll lose, trump has to find a way to widen his appeal and climb above that ceiling or he'll lose. It's too close to say which is going to pull it off. There's probably more paths to victory for trump, but that doesn't mean he'll be able to walk them.

 

[CdnFox]

2 minutes ago, DUI_Offender said:

It's 11 months from the election. I'm referring to the undecided voters in the final week of the election, who tend to vote for the incumbent. 

Like i said - that depends on how fed up the voters are of the incumbent. The flip side to the 'comfort vote' or 'devil you know' vote is the "time for a change" vote which is one of the most successful platform themes.  You don't see that phenomenon in the us as much because voters get sick of an incumbent normally in year 7 or 8 - and by then the incumbent can't run again anyway. So you see it a little with the party (we've had dems/reps long enough time for a change).

Biden is showing signs of that.  People are thinking it's time for a change, which is a little surprising. If trump can offer them something they see worth changing to, the advantage completely flips to him.

Interestingly enough studies show that it's not enough for voters to be sick of one guy for them to make a switch - the other guy has to offer something half way decent to switch to.

Biden will run on his track record. Which isn't great. Trump will kind of run on his, but what he'll really probably run on is "whatever you thought of mine, it was better than biden" and that's arguably true.

Neither has a decisive advantage at the moment but there's little doubt that trump probably has the easier job convincing people as long as he runs a solid campaign. But i don't really see him as a good campaigner. So, we'll probably see it remain  tight and then at some point during the campaign it'll break one way or another and that person will win. Right now i'd say it's 52 - 48 for trump, which is basically saying it's even

[WestCanMan]

5 hours ago, impartialobserver said:

Another round of Biden vs. Trump..... about as appealing as a moldy pastrami sandwich served with a side of diarrhea. This is a sad moment for Americans. it is their fault as to why we have two subpar candidates. They want this.. so this is what they get. 

It's not even just that. It's Trump vs Hillary, Trump vs Biden, and Trump v Biden 2.0. 3 straight elections with no respectable candidates, and even Obama was a horrible president from 2013-2017.

There is a good case to be made though, that Americans deserve it. What do they expect to happen with "news stations" like MSNBC and CNN spewing invective, racial hatred and lies 24/7? 

They can't really run their mouths like that and that back a candidate who isn't just as awful as they are. 

Edited December 5, 2023 by WestCanMan

[Deluge]

16 hours ago, DUI_Offender said:

It's 11 months from the election. I'm referring to the undecided voters in the final week of the election, who tend to vote for the incumbent. 

The illegitimate incumbent will probably be convalescing by the next election. You may want to start leaning on his cement headed fake VP.  

Edited December 6, 2023 by Deluge