betsy Posted February 23, 2024 Author Report Posted February 23, 2024 (edited) According to this, it's neck and neck in Quebec! Is Trudeau leading the Liberals to an election day shellacking? The Decibel The Globe and Mail Search that title on youtube! The video won't post here. Edited February 23, 2024 by betsy Quote
betsy Posted February 23, 2024 Author Report Posted February 23, 2024 (edited) Liberals face political oblivion with Trudeau at the helm Abacus has the two parties statistically tied in the historically Liberal bastion of Quebec, with the Bloc Québécois at 34 per cent, the Conservatives at 26 and the Liberals at 25. Provincial sample sizes are small, with a greater margin of error than the overall national count. That’s why a Léger poll released last week is so important. An online sampling of 1,032 Quebec voters released earlier this month showed the Bloc Québécois at 29 per cent, the Liberals at 28 per cent and the Conservatives at 24 per cent. That’s two polls showing the Conservatives competitive with the Liberals in Quebec. What does that mean? It means that if an election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would lose most of their 24 seats in Atlantic Canada and at least some of their 34 seats in Quebec. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/opinion/article-liberals-face-political-oblivion-with-trudeau-at-the-helm/ Edited February 23, 2024 by betsy Quote
CdnFox Posted February 23, 2024 Report Posted February 23, 2024 3 hours ago, betsy said: Liberals face political oblivion with Trudeau at the helm Abacus has the two parties statistically tied in the historically Liberal bastion of Quebec, with the Bloc Québécois at 34 per cent, the Conservatives at 26 and the Liberals at 25. Provincial sample sizes are small, with a greater margin of error than the overall national count. That’s why a Léger poll released last week is so important. An online sampling of 1,032 Quebec voters released earlier this month showed the Bloc Québécois at 29 per cent, the Liberals at 28 per cent and the Conservatives at 24 per cent. That’s two polls showing the Conservatives competitive with the Liberals in Quebec. What does that mean? It means that if an election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would lose most of their 24 seats in Atlantic Canada and at least some of their 34 seats in Quebec. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/opinion/article-liberals-face-political-oblivion-with-trudeau-at-the-helm/ It's amazing. The thing is, the conservative vote in quebec will be concentrated more in some areas while the lib vote will tend to be more spread out. So the real big winners might turn out to be the bloc. The libs could lose their seats and the cpc pick up a few but the block might have a very strong showing. Which works for the conservatives just fine. The conservatives don't really need to win quebec at all, they just need it denied to the libs. Honestly for the most part if the bloc took every seat in quebec that's fine - wiht quebec off the table and the west going mostly cpc then the libs have a serious disadvantage and have to strongly win ontario just to get a minority. The cpc only has to roughly tie in ontario to win a majority. If we happen to pick up extra seats in quebec at the same time on top of it If the polling holds till the election then the libs could wind up being in very real trouble. Like - lower than the ignatief loss trouble, They could conceivably come in 4th place with the bloc as official opposition and the ndp ahead of the libs. 1 Quote There are two types of people in this world: Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data
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