Canadian inflation jumps in July, raising prospect of another interest rate hike

Moonbox · August 18, 2023

49 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

So can't dispute what i've posted at all eh? Just trying to distract from the truth? Well - typical liberal. Of course you can't dispute the numbers, they're real and proven.

I've disputed virtually all of it, because you've pulled it out of your ass.

49 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

So now that you've accepted you can't dispute the BoC's claims of about 1.5 - 3 percent of inflation (and at this point probably 3.5 on the upper end as i noted) being due to carbon tax and trudeau's sptending - lets move on and look at his immigration policy's effect

Let's not, because I haven't accepted anything of the sort, and you haven't provided any evidence or any source whatsoever that support these numbers.

There you go again with a full page essay of useless carrying on, completely avoiding the actual debate and point of contention:

Where are these numbers coming from? Show some evidence for them.

Edited August 18, 2023 by Moonbox

CdnFox · August 18, 2023

58 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

I've disputed virtually all of it,

You haven't disputed any of it - despite being asked numerous times.

But hey - if you want to now then thats great! Nice to see you finally wanting to actually discuss the issue! So - if you dispute the numbers lets hear what you feel is accurate and why.

because you've pulled it out of your ass.

Let's not, because I haven't accepted anything of the sort, and you haven't provided any evidence or any source whatsoever that support these numbers.

Quote

There you go again with a full page essay of useless carrying on, completely avoiding the actual debate and point of contention:evidence for them.

The point is that trudeau's policies radically increased our inflation rate. I've already shown how he raised it between 1,5 and 3 (arguably 3.5) percent - and you were unable to argue otherwise.

That is literally the point being discussed I realize you want to talk about ANYTHING else - but that was the point

So now i've shown how his immigration policy is affecting inflation. If we got rid of justin our inflation/interest rates would drop dramatically.

Feel free to post anything showing the numbers are incorrect if you like ROFLMAO - but we both know they're not

Moonbox · August 18, 2023

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

The point is that trudeau's policies radically increased our inflation rate. I've already shown how he raised it between 1,5 and 3 (arguably 3.5) percent - and you were unable to argue otherwise.

The point is that you've completely made up these numbers, and you've not shown anything to support them.

Instead, you've spent pages and pages and multiple threads carrying on like a dumb muppet about why you're not going to show them. Considering how many things you've posted that don't verify your claim, wouldn't it be easier to post a single thing that does? ?

Edited August 18, 2023 by Moonbox

CdnFox · August 18, 2023

57 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

The point is that you've completely made up these numbers,

But i didn't - provided all the sources, they're all easily confirmed - the numbers are entirely real. Those are 100 percent official numbers All i did was gather them together in one place

If there's something you disagree with or a source that i quoted that you feel is inaccurate then point it out. But those numbers are all from official source, in some cases more than one.

Sorry Nothing made up - all verified But - of course like a typical liberal you're going to ignore facts and figures from official sources that you don't agree with

So according to the official stats, Justin is responsible for about half of our inflation. You can claim a small amount of that is due to covid spending that had to happen no matter who was in power. But most of it was avoidable

Sucks to be you kiddo - LOLOL! Inflation is a 'trudeau' thing, and the official numbers don't lie

Moonbox · August 18, 2023

17 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

But i didn't - provided all the sources, they're all easily confirmed - the numbers are entirely real. Those are 100 percent official numbers All i did was gather them together in one place.

Surely you can provide a link, if you've gathered them in one place? ?

A couple of articles speaking generally about inflation factors, followed by CdnFox's hand-woven balogna math doesn't count, and that's all we've seen so far.

27 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

So according to the official stats, Justin is responsible for about half of our inflation.

Where are these official stats? ?

CdnFox · August 21, 2023

On 8/18/2023 at 1:46 PM, Moonbox said:

Surely you can provide a link, if you've gathered them in one place? ?

LOL - this thread is littered with them. Go back and read.

You couldn't even wait for a new thread to pretend i haven't posted sources

On 8/18/2023 at 1:46 PM, Moonbox said:

A couple of articles speaking generally about inflation

Umm no, that was statcan for example. But sure - statcan's a pretty bias source and just uses opinions not facts right?

And reports and analysis from the financial post and BMO and SCOTIABANK are not 'generally speaking' for that matter.

Quote

Where are these official stats?

Above and now as usual you pretend that no official sources were given

Once again - if you disagree with any of the sources or stats or ANY number - lets see yours? Where are those?

As the official stats show - justin is responsible for over half of our inflation. Can't lie your way out of it.

Moonbox · August 21, 2023

11 hours ago, CdnFox said:

LOL - this thread is littered with them. Go back and read.

You posted three links, none of which supported your claim. ?

11 hours ago, CdnFox said:

As the official stats show - justin is responsible for over half of our inflation. Can't lie your way out of it.

It's official, but you can't present anything that says so. ?

11 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Umm no, that was statcan for example. But sure - statcan's a pretty bias source and just uses opinions not facts right?

And reports and analysis from the financial post and BMO and SCOTIABANK are not 'generally speaking' for that matter.

but here's what scotiabank actually said:

a. Around 50% of the increase in inflation observed since the end of 2019 can be ascribed to global or foreign factors. These include US inflation, commodity prices and movements in the exchange rate.

b. Supply challenges that largely reflect developments at the global level account for another 35% of the rise in inflation.

d. While the impact of these programs on the output gap is large, the empirical impact of the output gap on inflation is modest, leading us to estimate that government transfers account for around 0.45 percentage points of the rise in inflation we have observed since the end of 2019.

https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.inflation-reports.causes-of-inflation--december-5--2022.html

So yet again, you're caught cluelessly bullshitting. ??

myata · August 21, 2023

So when the "global factors" ease off, the prices will go down here. Like, "global" bread or potato prices. Right? Right?!!!

CdnFox · August 21, 2023

3 hours ago, Moonbox said:

You posted three links, none of which supported your claim. ?

They all support my claims and i explain why in plain english That's why you're having another little hissy fit

ANd lets look at some of the quotes you present from my sources:

Quote

Around 50% of the increase in inflation observed since the end of 2019 can be ascribed to global or foreign factors

And so the rest are inside canada. Thanks justin!

Quote

Supply challenges that largely reflect developments at the global level account for another 35% of the rise in inflation.

Largely reflect - but are not caused by.

Quote

While the impact of these programs on the output gap is large, the empirical impact of the output gap on inflation is modest, leading us to estimate that government transfers account for around 0.45 percentage points of the rise in inflation we have observed since the end of 2019.

Sure - but not today.

Remember that link Mike provided? Said the same thing - The INITIAL spike in interest rates was caused by outside sources and the like.

But - it has continued to grow since then and is NOT caused by those external factors as much.

So yeah if this was 2019.....

But lets look at what the bank says about the gov't and interest rates since

https://www.scotiabank.com/content/dam/scotiabank/sub-brands/scotiabank-economics/english/documents/inflation-reports/inflation-report_2022-06-19.pdf

the Bank of Canada is also fighting the lagged and ongoing impact of
fiscal support measures. Given this, the output losses that the BoC must engineer to rein in
inflation are falling disproportionately on the private sector. In effect, high levels of fiscal
expenditures are necessitating a crowding out of private spending. A less supportive fiscal
policy would take some adjustment burden away from the private sector, but also have a
much more immediate impact on inflation.

achieving the 2% target is a joint responsibility between the government and the Bank of Canada.

In our macro model, a fall of Canadian government
expenditures in goods and services decreases the output gap and, therefore, inflation. Consequently, the Bank of Canada would need to
tighten its policy rates by less to achieve the same path of inflation if governments persistently reduce their consumption expenditures
(chart 1)

image.png.9c96f68d417ee69493d1b9e115b0abe3.png

So yeah -TODAY, (not 2019) - TODAY the gov't is responsible for much more of the inflation rate. Or interest rate depending how you look at it seeing as that's what's needed to reduce inflation

But hey - instead of lying about MY links - go ahead and present your own numbers then Well, lets see them - even you agreed that justin's responsible for a percent of our inflation, so lets see your percent

Betcha can't. Betcha when you try to look it up or work it out you come up with my numbers

Sorry little guy - as the facts and links i've provide show justin is responsible for a little over half our inflation/interest rate issues.

Edited August 21, 2023 by CdnFox

CdnFox · August 21, 2023

BTW - the TLDR for M

3 hours ago, Moonbox said:

You.....

Oh - btw. There's the TL:DR for you as we all know you struggle with anything more than 3 sentences

THe stuff you quoted explained interest in the early 2020-2021 period just after the end of 2019.

And sure, like the video mike posted says - initially the spike in interest rates we saw was from covid and the world's reaction - but now it isn't.

The gov't didn't do enough to fight that inflation jump - and now it's carbon tax. monetary and spending policy and immigration makes up about half of the inflation we're experiencing, and a significant portion of the interest rate hikes we experienced and likely are about to in order to fight it.

Edited August 21, 2023 by CdnFox

Moonbox · August 21, 2023

58 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

So yeah if this was 2019.....

The link was from December 2022, muppet.

16 hours ago, CdnFox said:

As the official stats show - justin is responsible for over half of our inflation. Can't lie your way out of it.

As of Dec 2022, Scotiabank (who you brought up, funny enough) had this to say:

"government transfers account for around 0.45 percentage points of the rise in inflation we have observed since the end of 2019."

If you have something relevant and specific to counter this, post a link and a quote that supports it. Nobody's interested in reading your longwinded pseudo-economic bullshit. ?

CdnFox · August 21, 2023

3 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

As of Dec 2022, Scotiabank (who you brought up, funny enough) had this to say:

The report is Dec 22. The data they use will be before that of course.

And sure i brought them up - i posted the report from them that notes that the gov't is responsible for the inflation not coming down as it should do to excessive spending.

Quote

government transfers account for around 0.45 percentage points of the rise in inflation we have observed since the end of 2019."

Sure. Now add the gst. Now add gov't program spending which isn't included in that. Now add immigration pressures

THe BoC puts the cost of inflation at the carbon tax at .5 percent and that was before the latest rise. So even just teh TWO factors have justin responsible for 1 percent of the inflation direclty. Now add the others

And most of those got worse AFTER the initial spike. That's why that same bank wrote a report saying the gov't is seriously shirking it's duties to get inflation under control.

Quote

If you have something relevant and specific to counter this,

Not at all - it tends to prove my point. JUST THAT ONE factor is worth a half percent and it's gotten worse since then. When you start to add up all the other factors.... coupled with the fact that the same bank notes inflation would be lower if justin quit spending at this point ... proves my point nicely

Moonbox · August 21, 2023

6 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Sure. Now add the gst. Now add gov't program spending which isn't included in that. Now add immigration pressures

The beauty of the Scotiabank report is that you can't hide behind your usual vague hand-waving. Not only do they minimize the impact of transfer spending from stimulus etc, they also specifically explain 85% of inflation from Dec 2019 to Dec 2022 was from global factors and supply chain bottlenecks. ?

CdnFox · August 21, 2023

16 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

The beauty of the Scotiabank report is that you can't hide behind your usual vague hand-waving. Not only do they minimize the impact of transfer spending from stimulus etc, they also specifically explain 85% of inflation from Dec 2019 to Dec 2022 was from global factors and supply chain bottlenecks. ?

No, they explain that during that time 50 percent was, and 35 percent 'REFLECTED' global conditions. Not the same. And most of that was 'transitory' and at this point it's not a factor.

ALSO - they note that while transfers alone increased inflation only about a half point, they represented 125 basis points for the bank interest rate increases - meaning that they reduced the amount of those increases by increasing interest rates. ANd i was quite clear in my previous posts on this that you could look at it as rise in inflation or interest rates as one drives the other. :

While the resulting increase in the output gap only accounts for less than half a
percentage point of the rise in inflation since the end of 2019, it accounts for up to
125 basis points of the total tightening expected by the Bank of Canada.

And that was from data almost a year old. So if the bank hadn't jacked it's interest rates that inflation rate would be higher. Or - without trudeau's crap interest rates would be lower and woudln't have shot up as dramatically.

So - lets say we take that old figure of half a percent - as noted immigration wasn't an issue during lockdown - how much of our inflation and interest rates today are due to that? (dee the notes and sources previously provided) And then add the gst - as noted the boc says that's now .51 percent this year. I've posted thsi before several times:

https://globalnews.ca/news/8681032/bank-governor-carbon-tax-boosted-inflation-rate-by-nearly-half-a-point/

Are you claiming that inflation toady is not impacted by rising accomodation costs? or that immigration drives that? I've provided plenty of proof to the contrary

The problem here is you can't do math. And your english comprehension isn't great.

Once you account for the other variables we see today. trudeau is responsible for at least half of the inflation/interset rate issues we see today.

Especially food and housing - two of the biggest factors.

Edited August 21, 2023 by CdnFox

Moonbox · August 21, 2023

3 hours ago, CdnFox said:

The problem here is you can't do math. And your english comprehension isn't great.

I know that 50% + 35% > 50%, which is weird because you said:

20 hours ago, CdnFox said:

As the official stats show - justin is responsible for over half of our inflation. Can't lie your way out of it.

Who is having math problems here? ?

a. Around 50% of the increase in inflation observed since the end of 2019 can be ascribed to global or foreign factors. These include US inflation, commodity prices and movements in the exchange rate.

b. Supply challenges that largely reflect developments at the global level account for another 35% of the rise in inflation.

https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.inflation-reports.causes-of-inflation--december-5--2022.html

CdnFox · August 21, 2023

1 hour ago, Moonbox said:

I know that 50% + 35% > 50%, which is weird because you said:

That would be more to do with your english problem. First off - it's not 50 plus 35 - it's just 50. As was explained to you previously .

But more importantly - as both the report and I have explained that was initially when inflation began to run rampant - If you actually read through everything that is using data up to i believe sept or oct of 2022 at the latest - about a year ago. When I gave those figures i was very specifically talking about now.

And WHY that's changed has been explained by several sources. Please try to keep up.

Quote

Who is having math problems here?

That would be you

Quote

Around 50% of the increase in inflation observed since the end of 2019 can be ascribed to global or foreign factors.

That would be 2021-mid/late 2022. This is mid/late 2023.

Quote

Supply challenges that largely reflect developments at the global level account for another 35% of the rise in inflation.

Largely reflect. Not caused by. ANd again - in 2021, sure. This is 2023. Seems like addition's a challenge for you.

This has all been explained to you. I notice tho that you IGNORE the OTHER scotia bank report that notes the only reason the gov't share APPEARS low is due to higher interest rates Funny how you like to pick and choose

So - You were all excited about the gov't being respnosible for .5 percent for it's transfers. Carbon tax adds another .51 percent.

Sooooo - immigration wasnt a factor during covid but it is now - so how much is that worth'?

Simply quoting old data and ignoring the questions just makes you look bad. Soooo - once again, if we accept your .5 and the BoC's ,5 - what effect does immigration have again? I did provide some data on that.

Moonbox · August 22, 2023

6 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Simply quoting old data and ignoring the questions just makes you look bad. Soooo - once again, if we accept your .5 and the BoC's ,5 - what effect does immigration have again? I did provide some data on that.

The data is from end-of-year 2022, and all it does is clearly show how clueless all of your squawking has been.

Once again:

On 8/20/2023 at 8:45 PM, CdnFox said:

As the official stats show - justin is responsible for over half of our inflation. Can't lie your way out of it.

Clueless bullshit, because:

a. Around 50% of the increase in inflation observed since the end of 2019 can be ascribed to global or foreign factors. These include US inflation, commodity prices and movements in the exchange rate.

b. Supply challenges that largely reflect developments at the global level account for another 35% of the rise in inflation.

Asking questions about immigration doesn't make you any less embarrassingly wrong. ?

CdnFox · August 22, 2023

18 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

The data is from end-of-year 2022, and all it does is clearly show how clueless all of your squawking has been.

Don't be stupid. How could they possibly write a report IN december including December's numbers? Even you're not that dumb.

Once again - The SAME BANK notes that 120 points of the interest rate hikes to that point where to offeset the gov't caused inflation. Which is why the gov't inflation appears low. They expressly note that's why the gov'ts figure is lower for that time.

Now - immigration wasn't a factor then because the country was shut down. The housing increases are a direct result of that - and as noted in my previous links that 30-40 perent of people's CURRENT inflation.

Simply repeating old out of date figures and ignoring the banks' comments about the interest rate doesn't change the truth.

Or do you prefer to pretend like those numbers don't exist?

Moonbox · August 22, 2023

10 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Simply repeating old out of date figures and ignoring the banks' comments about the interest rate doesn't change the truth.

They're not out of date figures, lol. They cover the time period when we experienced most of the inflation. You've been squawking that over half, (or more specifically 3.00-3.5%) of 2022's inflation was Justin's fault, but the economists say that over 85% of it were from global/external factors. That's the truth, however inconvenient it is for your clueless narrative.

10 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Or do you prefer to pretend like those numbers don't exist?

They don't make your made-up bullshit any less made-up. ?

CdnFox · August 22, 2023

2 hours ago, Moonbox said:

They're not out of date figures, lol. They cover the time period when we experienced most of the inflation.

Of course they're out of date. And i was very careful to specifically refer to inflation AND interest hikes - we've traded one for the other. So we still have a lot of inflation but we use interest rate hikes to surpress it,

And of course the report i posted notes that 120 basis points of that already by 2022 were specifically to fight liberal policy driven inflation. Now it's worse. The scotabank says the feds are shirking their responsibility to fight inflation and if they cut spending there wouldn't be any interest rate hikes OR if there were interest rate hikes there wouldn't be inflation.

Justin is responsible for the majority of the inflation we have today. Using figures from covid 2021 to apply to our non covid world in 2023 is out of date.

In our macro model, a fall of Canadian government expenditures in goods and services decreases the output gap and, therefore, inflation. Consequently, the Bank of Canada would need to tighten its policy rates by less to achieve the same path of inflation if governments persistently reduce their consumption expenditures

Scotiabank.

The gov't spending is driving up inflation. If they spent less it wouldn't be there. And that's before we even talk about immigration

Moonbox · August 22, 2023

49 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Of course they're out of date. And i was very careful to specifically refer to inflation AND interest hikes - we've traded one for the other. So we still have a lot of inflation but we use interest rate hikes to surpress it,

You told us that Justin was responsible for 3-3.5% of our inflation in 2022. You weren't careful about anything. That's some funny revision now that we have a couple easy quotes showing how clueless and blustering you've been. ?

CdnFox · August 22, 2023

33 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

You told us that Justin was responsible for 3-3.5% of our inflation in 2022. You weren't careful about anything. That's some funny revision now that we have a couple easy quotes showing how clueless and blustering you've been. ?

Where did i say anything about '2022'. Making stuff up again are we? And are you claiming i did NOT say inflation and interest rates? I never used that term anywhere?

If you have to lie to make a point you don't have a very good point.

However - amusingly that figure would still be about right. We know from the BoC that the carbon tax added about .5 percent. we know even from the scotiabank report that transfers was another .5 - so right off the bat we're at one percent.

We also know that the gov'ts share was reduced thanks to a 120 point increase in interest rates. So the actual rate would have been closer to the 1 - 1,5 the BoC previously noted . That gives us about 2 right there.

Now - in 2022 immigration started again and rents started to rise - so add that in, plus add in the gov't spending that is mentioned in the other scotiabank report you so studiously ignore.

You're probably over 3.5 percent at that point. i'd do the math for you again but you'll just claim i never did

So - even tho you're not being honest and even tho i've said repeatedly that hes' responsible for the inflation and/or interest climbs you're STILL right.

ANd that makes sense with the scotia report - 50 percent of the inflation is from foreign and global issues. The rest is internal, although 35 percent of that reflects issues that lots of gov'ts had to deal with. but it's still internal.

46 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

You told us that Justin was responsible for 3-3.5% of our inflation in 2022. You weren't careful about anything. That's some funny revision now that we have a couple easy quotes showing how clueless and blustering you've been. ?

Funny that you didn't quote me saying that a bunch of times then LOL. I've said again and again - current interest/inflation rates,

Moonbox · August 23, 2023

5 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Where did i say anything about '2022'. Making stuff up again are we? And are you claiming i did NOT say inflation and interest rates? I never used that term anywhere?

I am claiming you said this:

On 8/17/2023 at 12:28 AM, CdnFox said:

I've shown the math before with various stories and other facts - the low end says he's responsible directly for 1.5 percent of the inflation increase and the higher end put it at 3 and it's probably closer to 3.5 on the high end. So we were at 2, which is appropriate, and we jumped up 6 more - 2 -3 percent of which is his fault.

Given that you were responding to a chart I posted showing 2022 inflation figures, and that Canada only saw inflation over 6% in 2022, it's retarded to pretend you were talking about a different time period. ?

CdnFox · August 23, 2023

1 hour ago, Moonbox said:

I am claiming you said this:

Ahhh - so you lied. You claimed i said 2022 and i didn't. Well - there you go.

Quote

Given that you were responding to a chart I posted showing 2022 inflation figures, and that Canada only saw inflation over 6% in 2022, it's retarded to pretend you were talking about a different time period. ?

Hardly - if you go back and read what i wrote it makes perfect sense. I address that very clearly several times.

So - once again you've realized you're wrong and you're trying to pretend i made statements i never made.

Sigh. I take it we're about at the hissy fit stage? You realize you've lost the argument yet again and so you'll freak out, fake statements from me and then blow up? Is there a meme in my immediate future?

Moonbox · August 24, 2023

On 8/18/2023 at 12:04 PM, CdnFox said:

So when inflation hit 8 percent - about 2.4 percent of that was directly due to trudeau's increasing immigraiton policy.

When we add the original amount - between 1.5 and 3 (which again is generous) and say average it to 2 - then we find that at our 8 percent inflation about 4.5 percent of it is directly 1 to 1 related to justin's policies.

Just saw this post, hahaha. What a bunch of total out-of-your-ass made-up nonsense.

a. Around 50% of the increase in inflation observed since the end of 2019 can be ascribed to global or foreign factors. These include US inflation, commodity prices and movements in the exchange rate.

b. Supply challenges that largely reflect developments at the global level account for another 35% of the rise in inflation.

https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.inflation-reports.causes-of-inflation--december-5--2022.html