BeaverFever Posted July 23, 2024 Author Report Posted July 23, 2024 On 7/19/2024 at 2:32 PM, Dougie93 said: considering the untold billions that Canada wastes on completely useless boondoggles I don't see what difference it would make if 431 "Iroquois" Aerobatic Demonstration Squadron "The Snowbirds" was equipped with 9 CF-18's The hatiten ronteriios (Warriors of the air) It’s not just the shortage of money it’s the people. Besides that would just be a replica of the Blue Angels. Quote
BeaverFever Posted July 23, 2024 Author Report Posted July 23, 2024 DND awards $35.8M Contract to GM Defense for Light Tactical Vehicles The Honourable Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence, announced that Canada is investing $35.8 million (including taxes) to deliver 90 Light Tactical Vehicles (LTVs) to Canadian Army personnel deployed in Latvia under Operation REASSURANCE – Canada’s mission in support of NATO’s assurance and deterrence measures. This announcement comes as Canada’s military footprint in Europe, including Latvia, is growing. As the Framework Nation for NATO’s Multinational Battle Group Latvia, soon to expand to NATO Multinational Brigade Latvia, Canada will have more than 2,200 soldiers persistently deployed by 2026. This new fleet of vehicles will enable the Canadian Army to operate more effectively in complex terrain and isolated locations that larger vehicles cannot access. They will also be used to transport combat equipment, which will reduce the loads carried by individual soldiers. To deliver these vehicles, Canada has finalized a contract with GM Defense Canada Company of Oshawa, Ontario, for 36 cargo and 54 personnel variants of the vehicle. The personnel variant is designed for teams of up to nine soldiers, while the cargo variant is designed for two to four soldiers and larger cargo. Light Forces equipped with a combination of cargo and personnel variants will be able to carry weapons, personal effects, and combat supplies for 72 hours of self-sufficient operation. The contract also includes integrated logistics support and up to two years of spare parts for the LTV fleet, as well as an option to procure up to an additional 18 LTV. The vehicles will be based on an off-the-shelf design so that they are delivered as quickly as possible. The first five vehicles are expected to arrive in Canada later this month, and will be used as the training fleet. Initial Cadre Training by the Canadian Army is expected to begin in late August 2024, with the remaining vehicles expected to arrive in Latvia by early October 2024. The LTV contract is the first phase of the Light Forces Enhancement (LFE) Project. LFE will deliver a specialized, new wheeled off-road vehicle capability to the Canadian Armed Forces’ Light Forces – which are rapidly deployable and optimized for terrain and conditions not suited to mechanized forces. The LFE Project Phase 2 will see up to 222 Tactical Mobility Platforms – also in cargo and personnel variants – and up to 23 light trailers, delivered to CA Regular and Reserve Forces in Canada. As the LFE project is in two phases, each will have a separate, competitive bidding process, which means different vehicles could be procured during each phase. “General Motors’ support of the Canadian Armed Forces with this contract is a prime example of the meaningful contributions GM makes in Canada. Whether it’s the supply of light tactical vehicles through GM Defense Canada, or the contributions of our Canadian Technical Centre in supporting the development of those vehicles, we are pleased GM can also make an impact in the defense space.” Kristian Aquilina, president and managing director of GM Canada “Canada’s commitment to Latvia’s security is steadfast. Through this procurement and other key investments, Canada is doing its part to help scale up the multinational NATO Battle Group in Latvia to a full-size brigade – strengthening our defensive and deterrent posture on the Alliance’s eastern flank. We will always do what it takes to provide Canadian Armed Forces members with the tools that they require to accomplish their increasingly vital missions.” The Honourable Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence “The procurement of the Light Tactical Vehicle for members of our Armed Forces deployed in Latvia is an example of our commitment to supporting the safety and modernization of our military, enabling it to better operate in a more complex and rapidly changing environment.” The Honourable Jean-Yves Duclos, Minister of Public Services and Procurement “This contract award demonstrate Canada’s steadfast commitment to bolstering our armed forces’ capabilities in Latvia. Our government is dedicated to equipping the Canadian Armed Forces with the equipment it needs to effectively carry out its mission, ensuring both immediate operational readiness and long-term economic benefits for Canadians. Through the application of Industrial and Technological Benefits Policy, this procurement will not only bolster Canadian innovation in our world class defence industry but also create high-value jobs and foster economic growth across the country.” The Honourable François-Philippe Champagne, Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry “The LTV contract is an important step toward revitalizing the Canadian Army (CA)’s Light Forces. It will enhance our range and response times both at home and abroad. Our Light Forces can be called to deploy on very short notice in any type of environment and the Army has been seeking that type of platform in larger numbers for many years. Once received, we intend to deploy most of these vehicles to Latvia in the fall. By being positioned on the eastern border of the Alliance, these platforms will enable the quick projection of a light infantry battle group to Latvia to reinforce the Forward Land Forces (FLF) Brigade led by Canada. Through this investment, the CA is not only improving its operational readiness, but is also enhancing its deterrence posture on the eastern flank of NATO.” Lieutenant-General Michael Wright, Commander Canadian Army GM Defense Canada’s light tactical vehicle solutions are based on the mid-size architecture of the Chevrolet Colorado ZR2, featuring a high percentage of Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) parts, including Chevrolet Performance components for enhanced off-road capability. Weighing less than 5000 pounds / 2232 kilograms, the light and agile tactical vehicles offer air transportability, in addition to ease of maintenance and sustainment with parts that may be accessed through GM’s global supply chain. Reliable and easy to operate, the light tactical vehicles also include active and passive safety features, meeting CAF requirements for performance and safety. ADDITIONAL INFO The Canadian Army’s Light Force infantry soldiers will be the primary users of the Light Tactical Vehicles and Tactical Mobility Platforms. The Light Forces Enhancement Project is split into two phases, and each will have a separate, competitive bidding process, which means different vehicles could be procured during each phase. Timelines for the second phase of this project will be confirmed as work progresses. The life expectancy for the new fleet is estimated at 15 years. Canada’s Industrial and Technological Benefits (ITB) Policy was applied to the LTV project in order to leverage economic benefits and grow the Canadian defence industry. GM Defense Canada Company will make targeted investments and business activity in Canada equal to the value of the contract. GM Defense Canada Company’s economic commitments are estimated to contribute $8.5 million annually to Canadian GDP and create or maintain 60 jobs annually over a five-year period. https://canadiandefencereview.com/dnd-awards-35-8m-contract-to-gm-defense-for-light-tactical-vehicles/ Quote
Army Guy Posted July 24, 2024 Report Posted July 24, 2024 (edited) Anyone really ask why these vehicles, when the troops in Latvia are a mechanized outfit, armed with LAV's...and the entire project of light tactical vehicles are not meant for mechanized forces but rather the likes of JTF or CSOR...or the light infantry Bn's.... to which we have 3 of....and none of them are in Latvia.... SO why is there mech forces without LAVS....what's wrong with the LSVW fleet, trick question... I know to many questions, no answers...shut up be grateful DND is getting some new equipment...It just sounds like Afghanistan all over again....lets not purchase something for the entire forces lets just piecemeal it....troops in Canada don't need anything... we need a government that can make sound decisions.... Edited July 24, 2024 by Army Guy Quote We, the willing, led by the unknowing, are doing the impossible for the ungrateful. We have now done so much for so long with so little, we are now capable of doing anything with nothing.
BeaverFever Posted July 24, 2024 Author Report Posted July 24, 2024 39 minutes ago, Army Guy said: Anyone really ask why these vehicles, when the troops in Latvia are a mechanized outfit, armed with LAV's...and the entire project of light tactical vehicles are not meant for mechanized forces but rather the likes of JTF or CSOR...or the light infantry Bn's.... to which we have 3 of....and none of them are in Latvia.... SO why is there mech forces without LAVS....what's wrong with the LSVW fleet, trick question... I know to many questions, no answers...shut up be grateful DND is getting some new equipment...It just sounds like Afghanistan all over again....lets not purchase something for the entire forces lets just piecemeal it....troops in Canada don't need anything... we need a government that can make sound decisions.... So in addition to the “mech” forces actually in Latvia, Canada’s contribution to the brigade also includes a Light Infantry battalion in Canada on high readiness that occasionally “surges” into the theatre, with all its vehicles and heavy kit pre-deployed and in storage. It would seem this procurement is for them, and allegedly is a limited interim acquisition within the scope of a larger LFE project. Quote
BeaverFever Posted July 24, 2024 Author Report Posted July 24, 2024 Fun video explainer on the vehicle from Task & Purpose, done a couple years ago Quote
ExFlyer Posted July 24, 2024 Report Posted July 24, 2024 9 hours ago, Army Guy said: Anyone really ask why these vehicles, when the troops in Latvia are a mechanized outfit, armed with LAV's...and the entire project of light tactical vehicles are not meant for mechanized forces but rather the likes of JTF or CSOR...or the light infantry Bn's.... to which we have 3 of....and none of them are in Latvia.... SO why is there mech forces without LAVS....what's wrong with the LSVW fleet, trick question... I know to many questions, no answers...shut up be grateful DND is getting some new equipment...It just sounds like Afghanistan all over again....lets not purchase something for the entire forces lets just piecemeal it....troops in Canada don't need anything... we need a government that can make sound decisions.... Being cynical, it has nothing to do with Latvia or even the Army but everything to do with making work in Oshawa. "Canada has finalized a contract with GM Defense Canada Company of Oshawa, Ontario". Truck sales are down and they would be laying off workers but, lets do a deal with GM. 1 Quote Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But you are not entitled to your own facts.
I am Groot Posted July 24, 2024 Report Posted July 24, 2024 15 minutes ago, ExFlyer said: Being cynical, it has nothing to do with Latvia or even the Army but everything to do with making work in Oshawa. "Canada has finalized a contract with GM Defense Canada Company of Oshawa, Ontario". Truck sales are down and they would be laying off workers but, lets do a deal with GM. Given these are basically pickup chassis with shitty seats and no doors, giving them $400k per unit seems more like a gift than a purchase. Quote
BeaverFever Posted July 24, 2024 Author Report Posted July 24, 2024 (edited) 1 hour ago, ExFlyer said: making work in Oshawa. I don’t think these are going to be made in Ottawa, probably it was just signed in Oshawa because that’s just where GM’s Canadian HQ is and I’m sure some political optics are at play…they mention GM making offsetting economic investments in Canada. The article briefly mentions when the vehicle ”will arrive in Canada” and along with the offsetting comments I assume they’re going to be made in the US where the rest are made. Edited July 24, 2024 by BeaverFever Quote
BeaverFever Posted July 24, 2024 Author Report Posted July 24, 2024 51 minutes ago, I am Groot said: Given these are basically pickup chassis with shitty seats and no doors, giving them $400k per unit seems more like a gift than a purchase. Plus suped-up engine, “integrated logistics support” (whatever that is) and up to two years of spare parts Quote
ExFlyer Posted July 24, 2024 Report Posted July 24, 2024 50 minutes ago, BeaverFever said: I don’t think these are going to be made in Ottawa, probably it was just signed in Oshawa because that’s just where GM’s Canadian HQ is and I’m sure some political optics are at play…they mention GM making offsetting economic investments in Canada. The article briefly mentions when the vehicle ”will arrive in Canada” and along with the offsetting comments I assume they’re going to be made in the US where the rest are made. For sure they will not be built in Ottawa LOL Because they are basically a Colorado pickup. I am quite sure they will be built in the Truck plant in Oshawa. But hey, who knows. Quote Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But you are not entitled to your own facts.
BeaverFever Posted July 24, 2024 Author Report Posted July 24, 2024 40 minutes ago, ExFlyer said: For sure they will not be built in Ottawa LOL Because they are basically a Colorado pickup. I am quite sure they will be built in the Truck plant in Oshawa. But hey, who knows. LOL! Meant to say Oshawa! They’re building a couple thousand of these for the US Army at a special plant in North Carolina, I expect our order of 90-108 vehicles will come from that production line 1 Quote
Army Guy Posted July 24, 2024 Report Posted July 24, 2024 10 hours ago, BeaverFever said: So in addition to the “mech” forces actually in Latvia, Canada’s contribution to the brigade also includes a Light Infantry battalion in Canada on high readiness that occasionally “surges” into the theatre, with all its vehicles and heavy kit pre-deployed and in storage. It would seem this procurement is for them, and allegedly is a limited interim acquisition within the scope of a larger LFE project. Canada does this all the time uses light Infantry Bn's in a Mech Bn role,due to manpower shortage as for equipment the light infantry Bns don't have all that much of it most of it is wheeled based, BV206, and those new polaris Side by sides.... My son just returned from Latvia, the only Vehicles in storage at the time are surplus LAV's and some wheeled vehicles( might be a x 2 companies worth of LAVs) ...It would make no sense to have a light infantry in a Multi national Mech Brigade... What is lacking is the LSVW which for some reason has not been purchased yet, Most of these trucks were taking out of service due to floors rusting completely out, tool boxes falling off the truck, it was a mess from the start.... They were talking about this program back before i got out, in 2014...I mean they are light trucks how hard could it be to make a contract to replace them...there is some media info from 2023 hinting at a new Mercedes LT truck...but nothing more... In case anyone missed it Latvia is an arctic country, i hope this veh has at least tarps or canvas to keep the weather out, that and a really good heater...i could not imigine driving this when it is 40 below. I think this is like Flyer said,a make work project to make up for how long the purchase of a few hundred vehicles is taking...or make it look like we actually do care about our NATO commitment and showing our allieds see we are spending ... 1 Quote We, the willing, led by the unknowing, are doing the impossible for the ungrateful. We have now done so much for so long with so little, we are now capable of doing anything with nothing.
Army Guy Posted July 24, 2024 Report Posted July 24, 2024 More good news from the Navy, seems that having an on board swimming pool is not one the navy asked for...It seems they have not fixed the problem....And we are letting Irving start to build the frigates, wonder how many swimming pools they get....Why are we so damn concerned about saving a dying shipbuilding industry....Why is it we can not give this to some major offshore company that can build boats without swimming pools...this is like some comedy show... One of Canada's new navy ships stopped in Hawaii after taking on water (msn.com) 1 Quote We, the willing, led by the unknowing, are doing the impossible for the ungrateful. We have now done so much for so long with so little, we are now capable of doing anything with nothing.
BeaverFever Posted July 24, 2024 Author Report Posted July 24, 2024 56 minutes ago, Army Guy said: It would make no sense to have a light infantry in a Multi national Mech Brigade. I HAVE been wondering what exactly their role would be if the security situation deteriorated and they had to surge into the theatre. Urban warfare? Trench warfare? Does Latvia have some complex terrain that only dismounted troops can defend? Apparently they have a specific mission set that they are/will be continuously training for but I haven’t seen anything that would suggest what it might be. 1 hour ago, Army Guy said: What is lacking is the LSVW which for some reason has not been purchased yet, Most of these trucks were taking out of service due to floors rusting completely out, tool boxes falling off the truck, it was a mess from the start.... They were talking about this program back before i got out, in 2014...I mean they are light trucks how hard could it be to make a contract to replace them...there is some media info from 2023 hinting at a new Mercedes LT truck...but nothing more... They awarded the contract earlier this year, I mentioned it on the thread. The Mercedes Zetros family of vehicles to replace LSVW and HLVW Quote
BeaverFever Posted July 24, 2024 Author Report Posted July 24, 2024 1 hour ago, Army Guy said: More good news from the Navy, seems that having an on board swimming pool is not one the navy asked for...It seems they have not fixed the problem....And we are letting Irving start to build the frigates, wonder how many swimming pools they get....Why are we so damn concerned about saving a dying shipbuilding industry....Why is it we can not give this to some major offshore company that can build boats without swimming pools...this is like some comedy show... One of Canada's new navy ships stopped in Hawaii after taking on water (msn.com) And what the hell is an AOPS doing at RIMPAC anyway. They’re big, slow effectively unarmed coastal constabulary vessels what could they possibly contribute to a Pacific show of force? In a real conflict with China I doubt anyone would find an AOPS anywhere near the theatre. Quote
Dougie93 Posted July 24, 2024 Report Posted July 24, 2024 1 hour ago, BeaverFever said: I HAVE been wondering what exactly their role would be if the security situation deteriorated and they had to surge into the theatre. Urban warfare? Trench warfare? Does Latvia have some complex terrain that only dismounted troops can defend? Apparently they have a specific mission set that they are/will be continuously training for but I haven’t seen anything that would suggest what it might be. the force in Latvia is simply a Tripwire it is structured to have as many NATO countries involved as possible, to shore up Article V but it is not structured nor does it have the logistics to fight as a cohesive formation in the event of war, the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army would be driving from Belarus to Kaliningrad via Lithuania with 6th Combined Arms Army attacking into Latvia & Estonia on the northern flank this would likely result in the Tripwire forces in Latvia & Estonia having to immediately withdraw south to Poland lest they be caught in a pocket behind the lines, encircled by the Russians by way of the Sulwalki Gap to wit, the mission in Latvia is political, not operational Quote
Dougie93 Posted July 24, 2024 Report Posted July 24, 2024 3 hours ago, BeaverFever said: They’re building a couple thousand of these for the US Army at a special plant in North Carolina, I expect our order of 90-108 vehicles will come from that production line indeed; at least they bought the same vehicle the US Army selected, so there is an American supply chain to support it Quote
Dougie93 Posted July 24, 2024 Report Posted July 24, 2024 3 hours ago, Army Guy said: Canada does this all the time uses light Infantry Bn's in a Mech Bn role,due to manpower shortage as for equipment the light infantry Bns don't have all that much of it most of it is wheeled based, BV206, and those new polaris Side by sides.... My son just returned from Latvia, the only Vehicles in storage at the time are surplus LAV's and some wheeled vehicles( might be a x 2 companies worth of LAVs) ...It would make no sense to have a light infantry in a Multi national Mech Brigade... What is lacking is the LSVW which for some reason has not been purchased yet, Most of these trucks were taking out of service due to floors rusting completely out, tool boxes falling off the truck, it was a mess from the start.... They were talking about this program back before i got out, in 2014...I mean they are light trucks how hard could it be to make a contract to replace them...there is some media info from 2023 hinting at a new Mercedes LT truck...but nothing more... In case anyone missed it Latvia is an arctic country, i hope this veh has at least tarps or canvas to keep the weather out, that and a really good heater...i could not imigine driving this when it is 40 below. I think this is like Flyer said,a make work project to make up for how long the purchase of a few hundred vehicles is taking...or make it look like we actually do care about our NATO commitment and showing our allieds see we are spending ... it's basically just a replacement for the old CUCV likely to spend most of its time driving around on exercise in Canada but you do have to drive something around on exercise in Canada and it sure beats the Iltis, CUCV or G-Wagon in that role Quote
Dougie93 Posted July 24, 2024 Report Posted July 24, 2024 3 hours ago, Army Guy said: More good news from the Navy, seems that having an on board swimming pool is not one the navy asked for...It seems they have not fixed the problem....And we are letting Irving start to build the frigates, wonder how many swimming pools they get....Why are we so damn concerned about saving a dying shipbuilding industry....Why is it we can not give this to some major offshore company that can build boats without swimming pools...this is like some comedy show... One of Canada's new navy ships stopped in Hawaii after taking on water (msn.com) thus is the pitfalls of trying to restart your shipbuilding program after leaving it dormant for 30 years shipbuilding is an art, and all the institutional knowledge is lost as soon as you shut the program down Quote
BeaverFever Posted July 24, 2024 Author Report Posted July 24, 2024 36 minutes ago, Dougie93 said: the force in Latvia is simply a Tripwire it is structured to have as many NATO countries involved as possible, to shore up Article V but it is not structured nor does it have the logistics to fight as a cohesive formation in the event of war, the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army would be driving from Belarus to Kaliningrad via Lithuania with 6th Combined Arms Army attacking into Latvia & Estonia on the northern flank this would likely result in the Tripwire forces in Latvia & Estonia having to immediately withdraw south to Poland lest they be caught in a pocket behind the lines, encircled by the Russians by way of the Sulwalki Gap to wit, the mission in Latvia is political, not operational The Baltics do seem to be pretty indefensible. But them why scale up to full brigade Quote
Dougie93 Posted July 24, 2024 Report Posted July 24, 2024 3 minutes ago, BeaverFever said: The Baltics do seem to be pretty indefensible. But them why scale up to full brigade again, it's political the point of a Tripwire is to put as many NATO countries in the line of fire to show resolve in terms of Article V but there's no depth there, nowhere to back off to, no way to defend in depth no way to resupply nor evacuate them except from or to Poland so in the event the Russians actually attack that Tripwire force has to flee on the spot, to get back to Poland, before the Russians could cut them off Quote
BeaverFever Posted July 24, 2024 Author Report Posted July 24, 2024 5 minutes ago, Dougie93 said: again, it's political the point of a Tripwire is to put as many NATO countries in the line of fire to show resolve in terms of Article V but there's no depth there, nowhere to back off to, no way to defend in depth no way to resupply nor evacuate them except from or to Poland so in the event the Russians actually attack that Tripwire force has to flee on the spot, to get back to Poland, before the Russians could cut them off But they already had that with the battle group before scaling up to brigade. In fact I think they lost a battle group member who is going to head up another brigade. I think the he scale up added size and complexity but not diversity Quote
Dougie93 Posted July 24, 2024 Report Posted July 24, 2024 (edited) 25 minutes ago, BeaverFever said: But they already had that with the battle group before scaling up to brigade. In fact I think they lost a battle group member who is going to head up another brigade. I think the he scale up added size and complexity but not diversity nobody said that the politicians have a clue as to what they are doing in terms of Canada, they are desperate to appease the NATO allies with what they have available I'm just pointing out that it would all be a disaster if the Russians actually attacked because there's no way you could evacuate by sea there, any attempt would be sunk by Russian torpedoes so they'd have to break and run for the Polish border, hopefully getting there before the Russians could seal it off otherwise you end up with multiple NATO Brigades encircled and forced to surrender therein you have to look to your lines of communication where is your fuel and ammo coming from ? if that line is cut; you are done, as within 24 to 48 hours, you will be out of fuel & ammo this is how mechanized forces are supposed to work you don't go head to head against the enemy defensive lines rather you go around them, to cut their supply lines ; war of encirclement 6th Combined Arms Army would be tasked with fixing NATO troops in Latvia & Estonia just pin them down there, hold them in place until 1st Guards Tank Army could close the Sulwalki Gap to the south thus NATO forces would be caught in the Baltic Pocket Edited July 24, 2024 by Dougie93 Quote
Dougie93 Posted July 24, 2024 Report Posted July 24, 2024 (edited) 3 hours ago, BeaverFever said: The Baltics do seem to be pretty indefensible. this was the debate all the way back to NATO expansion there in the first place in that, on the one hand, in the event of war, the Baltic States were not actually defensible whereas on the other hand, since the war would be won or lost at sea the Russians would go for broke to overrun them simply to defend the lines of communication to Kaliningrad Headquarters of the Baltic Fleet to wit, don't think of this as a land war ultimately, it is all going to come down to submarines to include Russian submarines cutting the Baltic States off from any and all assistance therein not just in the Baltic itself where Russian SSKs would prowl but the Russians would be bringing their nuclear powered submarine cruisers from Polyarny round the North Cape, to the Baltic Approaches on the western side effectively sealing the Baltic off in terms of any NATO maritime forces attempting to reinforce and/or evacuate Edited July 24, 2024 by Dougie93 Quote
BeaverFever Posted July 25, 2024 Author Report Posted July 25, 2024 3 hours ago, Dougie93 said: this was the debate all the way back to NATO expansion there in the first place in that, on the one hand, in the event of war, the Baltic States were not actually defensible whereas on the other hand, since the war would be won or lost at sea the Russians would go for broke to overrun them simply to defend the lines of communication to Kaliningrad Headquarters of the Baltic Fleet to wit, don't think of this as a land war ultimately, it is all going to come down to submarines to include Russian submarines cutting the Baltic States off from any and all assistance therein not just in the Baltic itself where Russian SSKs would prowl but the Russians would be bringing their nuclear powered submarine cruisers from Polyarny round the North Cape, to the Baltic Approaches on the western side effectively sealing the Baltic off in terms of any NATO maritime forces attempting to reinforce and/or evacuate On paper it looks that way, given that the 3 Baltic states collectively have a population the approximate size of the Greater Toronto Area and narrow territory. I will point out however the following factors: 1) Russian Navy doesn’t have free run of the Baltic Sea, which is increasingly referred to now as being practically a “NATO lake” given Sweden and Finland joining the alliance 2)The build up and mobilization Russian forces and logistics will tale weeks and months and will not go unnoticed by allies 3), NATO is not Ukraine, which Russia still can’t conquer 2.5 years and more than a half million casualties later despite the fact Ukraine is fighting with a hodge-podge of hand-me-down equipment from a dozen different countries and several different deadens. 4) A Russian invasion and attack on NATO would not be contained to just the Baltics. Russia would have to reserve most of its combat power to defend its entire territory on all fronts from a NATO counterattack and air/missile strikes that could come from Eastern Europe, Scandinavia, Alaska or over the North Pole 5) Realistically, enough people believe that any direct action between Russia and NATO could quickly escalate to Nuclear War so to make an actual war very unlikely. The name of the game is simply credible deterrence with the tripwire force is effectively a tripwire for nuclear war The tripwire force has to be big enough that its loss would be considered a direct attack on the alliance nations, and also large enough that it wouldn’t simply surrender or be captured without a fight (and therefore fail to ‘trip). The Russians probably calculate that a battalion-sized tripwire force that could be captured without a shot by a Russian division and chained to flagpoles as human shields a-la Former Yugoslavia wouldn’t trigger the tripwire and neither would a very small number of NATO casualties if a decisive Russian victory came quickly enough Therefore the tripwire need only be sufficient to ensure Russians understand that the defended territory has enough troops in enough places such that substantial casualties and major escalation will ensue if invaded, there will be no quick victories that can be diplomatically smoothed over afterwards Quote
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