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How long will it take for the USA to ditch Zelensky and the Ukraine and move on to China?


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The leaked documents reveal that the White House doesn't think Ukraine can win the war and suggest the US administration may lack confidence in supporting Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. Many of the documents appear to be part of briefing slides for the Joint Chiefs of Staff at the Pentagon, which could include analysis from the Defense Intelligence Agency, Central Intelligence Agency, National Security Agency and other intelligence agencies.

Also, the narrative is shifting and more attention is being paid to China and what's happening in their neck of the woods.

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17 hours ago, Contrarian said:

However, supporting Ukraine and standing up to Russian aggression remains a vital part of maintaining stability and security in the region. The Americans invested a lot of money in that area. They will not allow for it to be destabilized by having a Russian-controlled Ukraine. The Russian bear needs to pay the consequences one way or another for their medieval invasion, disregarding international law, is my take on this. 

You can support Ukrainian by negotiating a cease fire, and having them join NATO.

Russia will not back out of this without some of their interests met.

So, either you promise to stay out of NATO, or you give up some land as buffer. How much land will depend on who has best leverage in the conflict. Right now, that would be Russia.

Russia knew what it was doing in entering Ukraine.

While they had heavier losses than anticipated, they will come out if this with some of their demands met, or this war will last for a very long time.

Russia has a high tolerance for death tolls of its own. The west does not, nor will they have the appetite to invest trillions of dollars into this war.

Russia likely bet heavily on this and 2024. A conservative government almost certainly will force Ukraine to the negotiation table.

This war can only be stopped at the negotiation table. It cannot be won on the ground, and you would have to be delusional to think otherwise (not you personally, but any party pumping billions into it thinking this).

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7 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

Russia knew what it was doing in entering Ukraine.

Clearly they did not, else they wouldn't have done it.  

7 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

While they had heavier losses than anticipated, they will come out if this with some of their demands met, or this war will last for a very long time.

Heavier losses than anticipated is the biggest understatement of the year.  This war very well could end with "none" of their irrational demands met.  

7 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

This war can only be stopped at the negotiation table. It cannot be won on the ground, and you would have to be delusional to think otherwise (not you personally, but any party pumping billions into it thinking this).

Delusional how?  It's impossible that Russians tire of dying for absolutely nothing ?  It's delusional to think Putin could be ousted?  Did you see the same Parade I did yesterday?  

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If you've ever seen what the parade usually looks like, contrast that with a single T-34-85 tank (a late WW2 model) rolling through red square in a muted procession.  They're calling it the "lonelist tank in the world". 

I'm starting to think that the drone "strike" on the Kremlin was staged to give them an excuse for not doing the usual "Rah rah Russia Stronk!" parade.  Having a big victory day parade with all your cool hardware is kind of hard when it's all committed and/or knocked out in your failed invasion of choice.  

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23 hours ago, Moonbox said:

Clearly they did not, else they wouldn't have done it.  

They calculated that US leadership was weak. They weren't wrong. Them entering Ukraine as boldly as they did is a testament as to how weak the US leadership is perceived, globally.

23 hours ago, Moonbox said:

This war very well could end with "none" of their irrational demands met.  

With China's support, the only way Russia accepts a cease fire, is with some of their demands met.

23 hours ago, Moonbox said:

It's impossible that Russians tire of dying for absolutely nothing ?

Russia has an immense appetite for death for the motherland.

As long as Putin can frame wins through propaganda, that won't change.

"Waiting this out", only helps him. 

A republican president in the US, flips the script, as pressure would be then to stop wasting money, and pressuring Ukraine to take a deal.

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8 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

They calculated that US leadership was weak. They weren't wrong.

They weren't?  What part of the Ukraine invasion looks like it's going well for Russia, exactly?  

8 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

Them entering Ukraine as boldly as they did is a testament as to how weak the US leadership is perceived, globally.

The myopic and self-aggrandizing perceptions of dictators on the weakness of western leadership has a long and storied history of proving catastrophic for them.  

8 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

A republican president in the US, flips the script, as pressure would be then to stop wasting money, and pressuring Ukraine to take a deal.

A Trump return might.  Let's see how things go over the next two years.  

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3 hours ago, Moonbox said:

What part of the Ukraine invasion looks like it's going well for Russia, exactly?  

Nobody is winning this war.

Death tolls that aren't hiding the other side, show a rather even clash. 

Propagandists may want you to believe Russia is winning on one side of the pond, or Ukraine on our side, because the reality would be too much to accept for the general population. Tens of thousands of people have been slaughtered on both sides.

This isn't a win for Russia, but it has the funds and the heart to play the long game in this, as Putin's popularity is still very high in Russia, despite the west's trying to paint the scenario for the opposite.

3 hours ago, Moonbox said:

A Trump return might. 

Several conservative leaders running, have eluded to a lack of an appetite for continuing to throw money at this problem.

The left want to view this as winning or losing. The right are framing this, as wanting to end the conflict.

Somewhere along the middle in my opinion, is the sensible solution. Ending the conflict on acceptable terms for Ukraine. Those terms in my opinion, may involve the loss of some land. However, the volume of land that Russia wants (essentially 3/4's of it's ocean front land), is unacceptable.

Putin likely would take an exit ramp handed to him that he could frame as a win.

The fact the US is refusing to negotiate, and are using this war as a proxy war to fight Russia and deplete them, ignores the fact that Russia is using a mere portion of its force to fight.

Russia has hundreds of thousands of inmates they can throw into this to buy time. Actual Ukrainian soldiers are dying.

Russia doesn't care about death.

Anyone trying to frame this war as a win for anyone is delusional. We all knew Putin was, when he started the assault.

Significant infrastructure loss, thousands of women and children who have been raped, abducted or slaughtered, is not a win.

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I like how western media hides the horrific situations that Ukrainian soldiers have faced in cities like Bahkmut.

There is no framing this other than hell on earth, and a free for all fire fight. 

I won't post the immensely available footage, but anyone who has seen any of it, and still feel like either side is winning to me, is crazy.

For months, Russia has been sending waves of inmates to hold the line, knowing these people were being sent to be slaughtered. 

I saw footage of the Wagner boss in front of hundreds of coffins of his own, laughing as he stated that their "service is now done". 

Almost realizing he was on camera, when he corrected to "please make sure they are buried in a dignified manner".

This is what you're fighting against. 

Its like fighting a crackhead with super human strength, breaking their nose and sending them to the ground, and thinking you're winning the fight. You're fighting a crackhead. You already lost.

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5 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

Nobody is winning this war.

Death tolls that aren't hiding the other side, show a rather even clash. 

Death tolls that aren't coming out of Russia don't.  Even so, with a 4:1 population advantage, Russia can afford to take bad exchanges.  The question is whether Russian men and their families are willing to keep taking those casualties for nothing but one man's vanity.  

5 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

This isn't a win for Russia, but it has the funds and the heart to play the long game in this, as Putin's popularity is still very high in Russia, despite the west's trying to paint the scenario for the opposite.

Not a win for Russia - a gross miscalculation, which was what we were talking about.   It does not have the funds to play a long game, since they're already using early Cold War tanks on the front and their economy is smaller than Canada's.  They have the manpower, and Putin's popularity in Russia isn't something you or I actually know.  

5 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

Several conservative leaders running, have eluded to a lack of an appetite for continuing to throw money at this problem.

Some have, some say the opposite.  One of them, however, is a wholehearted Putin fanboi and he happens to be the current forerunner.  

5 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

The left want to view this as winning or losing. The right are framing this, as wanting to end the conflict.

This doesn't have much to do with the left or the right, but the "just wanting to end the conflict" is mealy-mouthed code for "screw Ukraine, give Putin what he wants".  

Talk about the Russian appetite for death and self-sacrifice all you want.  The reality is that Ukraine has this tolerance for suffering baked into their DNA after hundreds of years of abuse (usually at the hands of Russians).  The difference is that they actually have something to fight for.  

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4 hours ago, Moonbox said:

Death tolls that aren't coming out of Russia don't.  Even so, with a 4:1 population advantage, Russia can afford to take bad exchanges.  The question is whether Russian men and their families are willing to keep taking those casualties for nothing but one man's vanity.  

While I am in full agreement here, it will not matter as long as Putin keeps the powers that be, happy. The general population will matter little, as he has tightened the noose on things after he had his first such political scare early in his career.

4 hours ago, Moonbox said:

It does not have the funds to play a long game, since

Of course Russia does not, but expect China and countries like Iran, India to help with back channels. 

Like I said. Russia can play the long game with this. It definitely isn't planned, but regardless, will not hurt their image as long as they have something to provide to propagandists.

4 hours ago, Moonbox said:

Some have, some say the opposite. 

Putin can be his career on this one, that the next leader will want to end the war.

4 hours ago, Moonbox said:

"screw Ukraine, give Putin what he wants".  

Or, this isn't our war, and we shouldn't have to spend trillions of dollars on it when we desperately need these funds domestically. 

Losing little land, and having NATO guarantees which includes budgets to help rebuild may not be palatable to Ukraine, but 2-3 more years of this and coming to the same resolution won't be helping, either.

 

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13 minutes ago, Perspektiv said:

While I am in full agreement here, it will not matter as long as Putin keeps the powers that be, happy. The general population will matter little, as he has tightened the noose on things after he had his first such political scare early in his career.

Yes, and that works for most dictatorships... until it doesn't.  

13 minutes ago, Perspektiv said:

Of course Russia does not, but expect China and countries like Iran, India to help with back channels. 

Not that simple.  Iran is near-irrelevant.  China and India could support Russia with arms, but they probably won't.  Both depend far more on the West than vice-versa, with Western countries accounting for the vast majority of their international trade isn't something they're keen to jeopardize.  

Edited by Moonbox
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19 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Yes, and that works for most dictatorships... until it doesn't.  

In my opinion its wisest to proactively try to end this. If all you have is hope, it won't be much to go by with Putin needing the illusion of a win at very least, to save his own bacon. He will never stop this war until this is the case and has way too much to lose to back down.

21 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

with arms

I meant with trade. Let's not kid ourselves here, Russia took a massive financial hit with this catastrophic miscalculation, but its in its best interests to boost trade with China and India, who are willing to invest in bilateral investments, but not in war.

China wouldn't risk its global standing to send arms to Russia, nor would India. They gain nothing, and lose too much. Iran and North Korea wouldn't hesitate, however.

What I was eluding to, was Russia finding means to stabilizing their financial position and avoiding the type of crashes the US were predicting.

Putin's a crook. He will find legal or illegal means to get by.

Their only issue would be how quickly they could produce weapons.

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Just now, Perspektiv said:

In my opinion its wisest to proactively try to end this.

Proactively ending this means giving Putin want he wants and kicking the can down the road for the next episode of the same thing.  

Just now, Perspektiv said:

If all you have is hope, it won't be much to go by with Putin needing the illusion of a win at very least, to save his own bacon. He will never stop this war until this is the case and has way too much to lose to back down.

Sure, but it's not impossible for him to lose.  When the Ukrainians themselves decide it's hopeless, your point might be me more valid.  At this point I don't there's any floor on how poorly the Russian military will perform.  

Just now, Perspektiv said:

China wouldn't risk its global standing to send arms to Russia, nor would India. They gain nothing, and lose too much. Iran and North Korea wouldn't hesitate, however.

Iran and North Korea already do, but they're not not exactly titans of industry.  

Just now, Perspektiv said:

What I was eluding to, was Russia finding means to stabilizing their financial position and avoiding the type of crashes the US were predicting.

Putin's a crook. He will find legal or illegal means to get by.

Their only issue would be how quickly they could produce weapons.

Putin will find means to "get by", but that's a vague and not very helpful term.  The Russian economy hasn't completely collapsed, it's far worse than they're publishing, with a lot of military spending covering for a disappearing private and consumer industry.  

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2 hours ago, Moonbox said:

Proactively ending this means giving Putin want he wants and kicking the can down the road for the next episode of the same thing.  

Proactively, means making concessions that are reasonable to Ukraine, to end hostilities. No agreement without an immediate entry into NATO.

Only a NATO membership would make Putin think twice.

A promise from him is meaningless, so you need to put protections that ensure devastating consequences to him if he ever attempted it, again.

Sorry, but you don't win wars like this. You negotiate them to a stop.

Ukraine is outgunned by Russia. Should they become desperate, Russia has the weapons to wipe Kyiv off the face of the earth. If you had a no holds barred war, Russia would win in seconds.

There is a tightrope dance being done by all parties who clearly do not seek escalation with any of the big boys.

Russia has no choice but to fight a war that favors Ukraine, who knows their terrain better than anyone. Only reason their president isn't dead. There was a close call, but western propagandists don't want to give that much light.

2 hours ago, Moonbox said:

Sure, but it's not impossible for him to lose. 

Nothing is impossible at war. You shouldn't be operating off of hope in war. You need to be calculated.  What is the likeliest way to end the conflict. Not hoping Putin gets overthrown.

Thats as foolish as Putin hoping for a red wave in 2024 which would help his cause.

2 hours ago, Moonbox said:

Iran and North Korea already do, but they're not not exactly titans of industry.  

Of course not, but North Korea and Russia have enough chemical weapons to cause disastrous human loss of life. They tested a few similar such weapons, which were more types to burn flesh within a radius, to maximize death toll, without a care for collateral.

Putin backed firmly against a wall  is an abusive husband aware the police is on its way. 

The gravity of their mistake is now impossible to escape. Walls closing in, sink or swim.

This is when someone like this will be insanely dangerous.

2 hours ago, Moonbox said:

Putin will find means to "get by", but that's a vague and not very helpful term. 

Brought to his knees, would have meant him having to take a deal that humiliated him.

He is still standing, so is still in a position to call shots that the US and Ukraine are not.

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20 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

Proactively, means making concessions that are reasonable to Ukraine, to end hostilities. 

Sure, but I'll leave that up to Ukraine to decide how much of their territory being lost is "reasonable", particularly in the face of Putin's atrocities.  

20 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

Only a NATO membership would make Putin think twice.

and also make him refuse negotiations in the first place.  

 

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1 hour ago, Moonbox said:

Sure, but I'll leave that up to Ukraine to decide how much of their territory being lost is "reasonable"

Of course, but Zelensky stating all territory that has been taken including Crimea, would be returned to Ukraine is insanely bold, considering that their negotiating hand is compromised.

The US made false promises to him before the invasion, emboldened him, and now he is begging them for weapons. The costlier this becomes, the more people will demand a solution. Especially so, when deep corruption is popping up in his government we are sending assets to without asking any questions.

Documents have proven the dire prognosis the US feels are Ukraine's chances.

Putin is a master at chess. War is a game of chess. Take emotions out of the equation. In what world does Ukraine have a strong hand here?

Russia has an equally weak hand, in that they couldn't demand a significant portion of Ukraine's coast line. Last must be given away, and Ukraine can only bolster its hand prior to negotiations but don't have what it takes to win the war on the ground. 

2 hours ago, Moonbox said:

and also make him refuse negotiations in the first place.  

This is and would be the only means of Ukraine accepting some land lost.

Anything less, is unacceptable as a Russian guarantee is like a crackhead telling you they will pay you back. 

Ukraine needs to think of its security. Losing a little land, in exchange for security to me is the deal that should be made. Both parties should be pressured to make this deal.

The longer this war lingers, the more they are hurt (Ukraine). Russia isn't under widespread attack, and seeing entire cities turned to ruin.

Very easy to ignore this war, when your city isn't being shelled.

I have spoken to several Ukrainian people who barely escaped the war, and many just want the war to stop. Some have zero idea what is left of their families. 

Nobody wins in war. Framing this as winning, is delusional.

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On 5/13/2023 at 4:30 PM, Perspektiv said:

Of course, but Zelensky stating all territory that has been taken including Crimea, would be returned to Ukraine is insanely bold, considering that their negotiating hand is compromised.

That remains to be seen.  If the Ukrainians are convinced they can take back territory, I'll reserve judgement and see if they can.  The one reliable constant through this entire conflict has been that perceptions of Russian strength have proven grossly exaggerated, every step of the way.  

On 5/13/2023 at 4:30 PM, Perspektiv said:

Putin is a master at chess. War is a game of chess. Take emotions out of the equation. In what world does Ukraine have a strong hand here?

Putin's not even a master of checkers.  His self-cultivated image of genius crumbled the moment his army faceplanted into Ukraine.

Ukraine's hand has:

- The strength of the Western MIC behind it.  As big as the dollar numbers sound for military aid to Ukraine, it's peanuts to the countries sending it - much of it surplus equipment that would otherwise be retired.  Still, that's been enough to shatter Russia's best.  

- The moral high ground and something actually worthwhile to fight for.  

- Much, much much better leadership

On 5/13/2023 at 4:30 PM, Perspektiv said:

I have spoken to several Ukrainian people who barely escaped the war, and many just want the war to stop. Some have zero idea what is left of their families. 

No offense, but this is utterly worthless commentary.  I've spoken to several Russian people and they're sharpening their knives for Putin's back.  ?‍♂️

On 5/13/2023 at 4:30 PM, Perspektiv said:

Nobody wins in war. Framing this as winning, is delusional.

I am sure that if Ukraine were given the choice, they'd happily have to decided to not be invaded.  When that choice is take away/not offered, however, these sorts of bromidic statements count for little.  You're quoting Neville Chamberlain here, btw.  

Edited by Moonbox
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7 hours ago, Moonbox said:

That remains to be seen. 

Leaked intel shows a vastly different image than the one you, and the western media are painting.

There is very low faith that this war can be won by Ukraine, all the more reason to try to negotiate with a high hand.

There is even that looming thought of a Zelensky assassination (something he is very aware of), which would take Ukraine by its head. The body would soon follow.

Kyiv was almost taken by Russia. A last second hail Mary flooding of a river by destroying a dam, is the only thing that stopped this.

Catastrophic failure by Russia, but also exposed vulnerabilities they can exploit once conditions allow for it.

7 hours ago, Moonbox said:

perceptions of Russian strength have proven grossly exaggerated

They still vastly outnumber Ukraine by multiple times. This favors Russia, long term. How poorly Russia has performed is irrelevant, when they continue to destroy Ukraine.

7 hours ago, Moonbox said:

The moral high ground

Moral high ground is meaningless, when you run state media, and the propaganda machine is in full swing. They are the moral high ground to many in Russia. For the many who don't buy it, 15 years in prison, has proven to be sufficient to keep such thoughts to oneself to avoid being tried for secession. 

Let it not be a mistake. Putin is desperate. However as long as he toes the line with those that pull his strings, he is essentially bulletproof in terms of his grip on power.

8 hours ago, Moonbox said:

Much, much much better leadership

Joe Biden isn't on Putin's level, sorry. If you were talking about European leaders who also are lending a hand to Ukraine, you may have a better argument among some of them. Biden is fish food to Putin.

8 hours ago, Moonbox said:

I am sure that if Ukraine were given the choice, they'd happily have to decided to not be invaded. 

They had that choice. They were surrounded by Russia. This was a critical moment to dial down tensions, not fan the flames.

I want the war over. Anyone rational will think the same.

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2 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

Leaked intel shows a vastly different image than the one you, and the western media are painting.

There is very low faith that this war can be won by Ukraine, all the more reason to try to negotiate with a high hand.

Western analysts also assumed that Ukraine would be quickly defeated in 2022.  If there's one thing the Russians are good at, it's boasting about and wildly inflating their strength beyond reality.  

2 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

There is even that looming thought of a Zelensky assassination (something he is very aware of), which would take Ukraine by its head. The body would soon follow.

Assassinating Zelensky would make a martyr out of him.  This point is a dud.  

2 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

Kyiv was almost taken by Russia. A last second hail Mary flooding of a river by destroying a dam, is the only thing that stopped this.

If one of the oldest military tactics in book (contesting natural defensive barriers like rivers) was all that stopped Kiev from being captured, that tells you how poor Russian planning must have been.  Regardless, this point is also misinformed because literally everything about the push towards Kiev was a debacle.  A river didn't chase the Russian army out of northern Ukraine.  

2 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

They still vastly outnumber Ukraine by multiple times. This favors Russia, long term. How poorly Russia has performed is irrelevant, when they continue to destroy Ukraine.

This is basically the only advantage they do have, and it doesn't count for nearly as much as it used to.  

2 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

Moral high ground is meaningless, when you run state media, and the propaganda machine is in full swing. 

and yet it continues to be the Russian units melting away and underperforming.  It's almost like cowed and bullied conscripts thrown callously and ill-equipped into a foreign invasion don't have the same sort of élan as people defending their homeland.  

2 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

Let it not be a mistake. Putin is desperate.

Putin might be desperate, but so is Ukraine.    

2 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

Joe Biden isn't on Putin's level, sorry. 

That's a resounding compliment to Joe Biden, because anyone still pretending Putin's "leadership" is worth anything is deluding themselves.  The myth of your strength and wisdom doesn't hold up when you've just faceplanted into the worst geopolitical disaster of a generation.  

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1 minute ago, Moonbox said:

Western analysts also assumed that Ukraine would be quickly defeated in 2022.

Luck is the only thing that stood between Kyiv being taken and fighting off Russia. 

A desperate hail marry move by swift military personel, is what Zelensky owes his life to. Same reason he knew when making a few calls to some leaders, that they may never speak to him again.

Nobody in this war, are in a position to be boastful. Especially not Russia.

They should be ashamed.

4 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Assassinating Zelensky would make a martyr out of him. 

It would also destabilize the region.

This helps nobody, and makes the area unpredictable. 

34 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

that tells you how poor Russian planning must have been. 

They were highly incompetent. I highly doubt they would try to lose on their second attempt after what they have learned.

35 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

as people defending their homeland. 

The fear is similar. They don't fight, they die, albeit one side is motivated to fight like you said.

36 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Putin might be desperate, but so is Ukraine

Everything is riding on this gamble from Putin. He literally holds the keys to the future to both his country and Ukraine.

37 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

when you've just faceplanted into the worst geopolitical disaster of a generation.  

George Bush is a close second, albeit he killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqi soldiers and innocent civilians, over nothing. The beauty of propaganda. Same reason I don't think for a second Putin will lose popularity anytime soon.

There is not a chance Bush will face consequences for what he has done, and highly unlikely that Putin will either.

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1 hour ago, Perspektiv said:

Luck is the only thing that stood between Kyiv being taken and fighting off Russia. 

So luck and a river made the Russians flee northern Ukraine.  Okay....?

1 hour ago, Perspektiv said:

They were highly incompetent. I highly doubt they would try to lose on their second attempt after what they have learned.

So maybe it was luck, a river and Russian incompetence....and maybe 8 years of preparation for it on the Ukrainian side.  

1 hour ago, Perspektiv said:

Everything is riding on this gamble from Putin. He literally holds the keys to the future to both his country and Ukraine.

If he's gambling then he doesn't really hold any keys.  He's playing chicken with a losing hand now, hoping that his opponents abroad give up before he does, and that things don't go poorly for him domestically. The fact that he hasn't properly mobilized for war tells you everything you need to know about how strong he perceives his grip on the average Russian to be.  

1 hour ago, Perspektiv said:

George Bush is a close second, albeit he killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqi soldiers and innocent civilians, over nothing. The beauty of propaganda. Same reason I don't think for a second Putin will lose popularity anytime soon.

The invasion of Iraq was over and done with quickly, and the US lost ~5000 dead in around 8 years, including the long insurgency.

Comparatively, the Ukraine invasion has failed miserably and surpassed that cost within the first month.  

1 hour ago, Perspektiv said:

There is not a chance Bush will face consequences for what he has done, and highly unlikely that Putin will either.

Bush didn't lead his armed forces into a slaughter.  A quagmire is not the same thing as a faceplant.  

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