2006 Election Predictions

[willy]

Here it is a Conservative Majority:

155 seats

The Liberals are creating their own perfect storm.

Negative comments Chow, and Beer and Pop corn.

In the back drop of entitlements and Gomery.

No vision campaign. With little room to move as the Conservatives have laid out a moderate path on most major policy planks.

And to cap it off a RCMP investigation of the Finance Department.

Come on even the die hards have to admit this can't be good for momentum.

I see a split and the NDP will pick up in Vancouver and Toronto. The Conservatives will pick up else where.

Wow, can Goodale loose the last seat in Sask.

The perfect storm I tell you. And Copps is on the war path.

The story is far from over but they are digging a hole.

[Vancouver King]

Just trying to help.

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[Vancouver King]

Post your predictions here. 

So far only six posters have made a prediction on how many seats the CPC will end up with, and five of these are so ridiculously low it isn't even funny.

Slavik44 ................ 102

Colby Cosh ............ 105

tml12 ..................... 106

Vancouver King ...... 110

August1991 ............ 113

Now if you were all to increase those numbers by at least a third before the end of this year, you won't have to endure ridicule at the start of the next one.

Just trying to help.

_____________________________________________________

My crystal ball is still cloudy on one point. Will the predicted carnage in Quebec materialize and wipe a dozen or more seats off the Liberal total? The Bloc is sounding almost inclusive this election appealing to ethnic minorities and disillusioned federalists.

Harper's perfect campaign to date is further bolstered by news of RCMP investigation of Finance Dept income trust leak. Nothing like a renewed stench of corruption to skewer Liberal hopes.

We've been told since the outset that the real campaign - the main event - begins Janaury 1st. My revised numbers after the preliminary round are:

CPC: 116

Liberal: 103

Bloc: 63

NDP: 26

I'm ready to endure ridicule.

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[Biblio Bibuli]

Judging by the poll presented on the mapleleaf web site, a higher percentage of people here plan to vote CPC (37%) and a lower percentage plan to vote Liberal (28%) than will do so in the general population.  Could it be wishful thinking that makes people predict outcomes that are inconsistent with current polling data?

Probably.

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Shoop Shoop Shoop ....... tsk tsk tsk!

[shoop]

Yeah, my bad.

But if memory serves correctly I said that before beer and popcorn, Kander's blog and the RCMP investigation.

Things are definitely moving in the right direction for the CPC.

Shoop Shoop Shoop    ....... tsk tsk tsk!

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[Biblio Bibuli]

Yeah, my bad. 

But if memory serves correctly I said that before beer  ...

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That explains it.

I too need to down a few before I'm on the ball and sharp.

But yesterday I had few too many. I had so many beers last night that today I actually understand what Martin meant when he said ... "You're not drunk if you can lie on the floor without holding on."

GO STEPHEN GO!

[Biblio Bibuli]

Canuck E Stan's  predictions:

CONSERVATIVE PARTY:                            141

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No bookie shop will give you more than 1 to 9 odds on that.

My (and Willy's) 155 still sits at a very generous 2 to 1 at the moment.

This won't last! I suspect that within a week or so the above odds will be pretty much reversed, so, if anybody here wants to get in on a good bet ... better do it now.

[Biblio Bibuli]

I actually understand what Martin meant when he said ... "You're not drunk if you can lie on the floor without holding on." 

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I'm sorry I forgot to mention that that was Dean who said that, not Paul.

Not sure if they are related.

[scribblet]

Never bet against the stupidity or complacency of the Canadian electorate.

The Liberals have held onto power through most of the 20th century by playing to stupidity and complacency.

I wouldn't get over-confident though, when cornered, the Libs get desperate. They will likely get extremely nasty, or start promising the moon in order to win. The CPC should fight this election as if they are at least 5 points behind.

[Canuck E Stan]

Canuck E Stan's predictions:rev:1

LIBERAL PARTY: 75

CONSERVATIVE PARTY: 141( including 1 from Quebec)

BLOC: 62

NDP: 29

Independent 1(Manitoba)

revised to:

LIBERAL PARTY: 75

CONSERVATIVE PARTY: 141( including 1 from Quebec)

BLOC: 61

NDP: 29

Independent 2

1(Manitoba)

1(Quebec)

[shoop]

Absolutely.

Here is the key to winning the election from this point on for the Conservatives.

*Change nothing in the campaign plan!*

The daily policy announcements are keeping the CPC at the lead of the agenda. Honestly, there have been no redneck MPs or candidates saying things that have gotten the party in trouble. Harper has run a gaffe free national campaign.

The "They'll go negative" ads are brilliant. Not really offensive. Understandable given the way the Liberals have gone negative in the past. Now, if the Liberals do go negative, the Conservatives are totally justified with those ads. It makes it very easy for any Liberal negative ads to backfire. If the Liberals are scared off of using negative ads, that much the better.

Never bet against the stupidity or complacency of the Canadian electorate.

The Liberals have held onto power through most of the 20th century by playing to stupidity and complacency. 

I wouldn't get over-confident though, when cornered, the Libs get desperate.  They will likely get extremely nasty, or start promising the moon in order to win.  The CPC should fight this election as if they are at least 5 points behind.

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[betsy]

Conservatives = 140

Liberals = 90

Bloc = 50

NDP = 22

Green = 6

[Melanie_]

Woohoo, Betsy! A bold prediction for the Green party! I for one would really like to see them get a few seats, but my riding is pretty safe for Reg Alcock, so I know it won't be here.

[Biblio Bibuli]

Never bet against the stupidity or complacency of the Canadian electorate.

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Canadians who want to bet on the winner aren't stupid. Quite the opposite. They know that the press will steer them towards the winner every time.

That's what I'm doing!

[Biblio Bibuli]

Woohoo, Betsy! A bold prediction for the Green party!

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Aaaah ........ Betsy is just trying to fool you into believing that she doesn't know what she's talking about.

She obviously didn't lay down her money on the winner yet and she doesn't want us to screw up her odds.

[Guest eureka]

If the Liberals play to the stupidity or complacency of the Canadian electorate, they have to do a better job.

Almost 30% of the electorate seem to be planning to vote Conservative in spite of their stupidity and complacency.

That would seem to be a great failing for the Liberals when the stupid portion is not swayed.

[scribblet]

Never bet against the stupidity or complacency of the Canadian electorate.

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Canadians who want to bet on the winner aren't stupid. Quite the opposite. They know that the press will steer them towards the winner every time.

That's what I'm doing!

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Your right about the press, which years ago gave up reporting and informing about the news. They now shape and mold the news to their line of thinking.

Betsy: 6 seats for the greens? I think under proportional rep. they would have had more than that, but I still won't bet on them getting any seats. At this point it is looking like a conservative minority, but it can still go anyway - the worst is yet to come.

[Biblio Bibuli]

If the Liberals play to the stupidity or complacency of the Canadian electorate, they have to do a better job.

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Everyone, including Don Martin in his NP column today, seem to think that "a bagel shop is no place to turn up the heat." Don goes on to say that "Martin picks an odd place to kick-start a wobbling campaign."

Thinking that Kettleman's bagel shop owner would be Jewish I shared Don's sentiments, but when I found out that an East Indian cabdriver, Mr. Sharma, has recently bought the place I knew right away what Mr. Dithers was up to.

You know ... there's goning to be a grave shortage of cab drivers in Canada if Paul Martin wins. We'll have an abundance of doctors though. Sharma's bagel shop may turn into a medical clinic too.

Stay healthy, Eureka! Just in case.

[shoop]

Completely agreed. For whatever reason the MSM, save the CBC of course, has turned friendly towards the Conservatives. Who knows why this happened. Let's just be happy that it has.

Your right about the press, which years ago gave up reporting and informing about the news.  They now shape and mold the news to their line of thinking.

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[Riverwind]

Completely agreed. For whatever reason the MSM, save the CBC of course, has turned friendly towards the Conservatives. Who knows why this happened. Let's just be happy that it has.

Do you actually listen to the CBC? The CBC is jumping on the Harper bandwagon like every other media outlet (provided you don't listen to that god forsaken show called the 'The Current')

[Biblio Bibuli]

Your right about the press, which years ago gave up reporting and informing about the news.  They now shape and mold the news to their line of thinking.

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You know what they say about the press.

"Freedom of the press is guaranteed only to those who own one."

[shoop]

Don't *listen* to the CBC. Probably catch the National about half the time and usually check out their Web site a couple times a day. I remember George Strombapopadolous accusing Harper of flipflopping a couple weeks ago. But that guy is an unabashed Liberal booster.

Do you actually listen to the CBC? The CBC is jumping on the Harper bandwagon like every other media outlet (provided you don't listen to that god forsaken show called the 'The Current')

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[Biblio Bibuli]

Never bet against the stupidity of the Canadian electorate.

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We are not stupid, Scriblett.

The last election we wanted change so badly we could taste it .... but Paul Martin, that little rascal, persuaded us that he WAS the change.

He had ME fooled.

This time around we AGAIN crave change SO bad we can taste it.

Our message to Mr. Martin?

"Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me."

CPC ............... 156 (beat it Willy!)

[Duke]

CPAC poll today puts the Conservatives leading with 36%. This may be the start of something GOOD!!!!!!!!

[Biblio Bibuli]

CPAC poll today puts the Conservatives leading with 36%. This may be the start of something GOOD!!!!!!!!

I think the rules of the game on this thread is to predict how many seats the winner will get without going over.

That's why Canuck E Stan's prediction of 141 seats for CPCers looks so good, because if the CPCers get even as many as 154 seats, my and Willies' prediction of 155 seats will lose.

I wish it were played on whoever gets closer, then Willy & I couldn't lose.

What's your bet?

PS - I have since bumped my bet to 156 seats.