Getting it right

[B. Max]

http://www.canadafreepress.com/2005/klaus090105.htm

Currently there is a strong sentiment in the West to get out from under Eastern Canada’s thumb. A poll conducted by The Western Standard has found that over 1/3 of all Westerners are open to the idea of separating from Canada, while close to 50% of Albertans are in favor. All it will take is a few more outrages on the part of the buffoons running this country to take this sentiment beyond 50%. Unlike Quebec, the West has nothing to lose by separating and plenty to gain.

[Riverwind]

Unlike Quebec, the West has nothing to lose by separating and plenty to gain.

This is where you are deluding yourself - breaking up a country like Canada is an incredibly complex thing to do and extremely dangerous because there are no binding laws or courts that the parties can turn to in the case of disagreement. Theoretical calculations about how much Alberta would 'save' if it left federation are insignifcant compared to the real economic losses caused by higher interest rates and the general economic chaos that would follow.

I also find it laughable that people who advocate seperation think that a fair negotiated settlement is possible in the wake of a narrowly passing referendum on seperation when the same parties cannot agree on changes the constitution in the current, relatively calm environment. In other words, if we can't agree now on a new consitution then we will definately not be able to agree to negotiated break up of the country.

[B. Max]

Unlike Quebec, the West has nothing to lose by separating and plenty to gain.

This is where you are deluding yourself - breaking up a country like Canada is an incredibly complex thing to do and extremely dangerous because there are no binding laws or courts that the parties can turn to in the case of disagreement. Theoretical calculations about how much Alberta would 'save' if it left federation are insignifcant compared to the real economic losses caused by higher interest rates and the general economic chaos that would follow.

I also find it laughable that people who advocate seperation think that a fair negotiated settlement is possible in the wake of a narrowly passing referendum on seperation when the same parties cannot agree on changes the constitution in the current, relatively calm environment. In other words, if we can't agree now on a new consitution then we will definately not be able to agree to negotiated break up of the country.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

There is little or nothing to negotciate. The fact is, this will be the one instance where the east will have nothing to say about it. We could'nt give a rats behind what the east thinks or doesn't agree to.

Here's the push that will do it.

http://worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=46120

[Riverwind]

There is little or nothing to negotciate. The fact is, this will be the one instance where the east will have nothing to say about it. We could'nt give a rats behind what the east thinks or doesn't agree to.

Sorry, legally speaking Alberta is part of Canada. Any session must be negotiated. A UDI is a recipe for chaos and civil war. In all cases, the economic disruptions will be huge and it would take Alberta decades to make up the ground it losses dues to the economic chaos. In any case, we are only talking about Alberta here since it only in Alberta where the oil money has made some people blind to the consequences of their actions (very much like a drunk who thinks he is superman). So Alberta would be negotiating with BC and Saskatchewan as well.

[B. Max]

There is little or nothing to negotciate. The fact is, this will be the one instance where the east will have nothing to say about it. We could'nt give a rats behind what the east thinks or doesn't agree to.

Sorry, legally speaking Alberta is part of Canada. Any session must be negotiated. A UDI is a recipe for chaos and civil war. In all cases, the economic disruptions will be huge and it would take Alberta decades to make up the ground it losses dues to the economic chaos. In any case, we are only talking about Alberta here since it only in Alberta where the oil money has made some people blind to the consequences of their actions (very much like a drunk who thinks he is superman). So Alberta would be negotiating with BC and Saskatchewan as well.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Chaos in the east perhaps. However BC and sask. both have sizable oil reserves. Do you think they will hang around to be picked clean after AB. leaves. Not a chance. They will see their best interests lying with alberta. Negotciating a republic in the west i wouldn't rule out.

[Riverwind]

Chaos in the east perhaps. However BC and sask. both have sizable oil reserves. Do you think they will hang around to be picked clean after AB. leaves. Not a chance. They will see their best interests lying with alberta. Negotciating a republic in the west i wouldn't rule out.

Chaos everywhere. Oil brings in money but the real jobs are created in other industries that need private sector investment that would be put on hold or go to other countries until the mess is sorted out. The Canadian dollar would collapse in value and interest rates would skyrocket (who would loan any money to the Canadian govt, federal or provincial, in such circumstances). Everyone's standard of living would drop dramatically.

In any case, you are worried about nothing. A new NEP is not going to happen. Martin is not the brightest blub in Ottawa but he is not an idiot.

[crazymf]

Sparhawk,

Where would you go? You're on the wrong side of the mountains if the west goes. Would you move back east???

[B. Max]

Chaos in the east perhaps. However BC and sask. both have sizable oil reserves. Do you think they will hang around to be picked clean after AB. leaves. Not a chance. They will see their best interests lying with alberta. Negotciating a republic in the west i wouldn't rule out.

Chaos everywhere. Oil brings in money but the real jobs are created in other industries that need private sector investment that would be put on hold or go to other countries until the mess is sorted out. The Canadian dollar would collapse in value and interest rates would skyrocket (who would loan any money to the Canadian govt, federal or provincial, in such circumstances). Everyone's standard of living would drop dramatically.

In any case, you are worried about nothing. A new NEP is not going to happen. Martin is not the brightest blub in Ottawa but he is not an idiot.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This is what will lead to civil war. http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/2005/09...1203061-cp.html

and you're right, martin is not the brightest bulb in the package and being surround by other not so bright bulbs is what makes the situation dangerous.

[Riverwind]

Where would you go? You're on the wrong side of the mountains if the west goes. Would you move back east???

Good question, however, since I have lived most of my life in the west I could hardly go 'back' east. I am sure there are lot of people out there like me. That is why separation is a dumb option - too many people with too many different opinions. The status quo is not ideal but it is ensures stability. Change to the federation will happen - it just takes time.

[Riverwind]

This is what will lead to civil war. http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/2005/09...1203061-cp.html

and you're right, martin is not the brightest bulb in the package and being surround by other not so bright bulbs is what makes the situation dangerous.

That poll is a bit like asking someone who was just mugged if muggers should get the dealth penalty. You have to take it with a grain of salt.

Put it another way: Martin knows his only chance of a majority government requires him to pick up seats in BC and Manitoba since the Liberals will be lucky to hold on to their Quebec seats never mind increase them. This means the west will be relevant in the next few elections. Even Landslide Annie's seat in Alberta is critical to the Liberals - they need it for credibility.

[crazymf]

Where would you go? You're on the wrong side of the mountains if the west goes. Would you move back east???

Good question, however, since I have lived most of my life in the west I could hardly go 'back' east. I am sure there are lot of people out there like me. That is why separation is a dumb option - too many people with too many different opinions. The status quo is not ideal but it is ensures stability. Change to the federation will happen - it just takes time.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It was a tongue in cheek query obviously, but reflective of the fact that BC doesn't seem to have the western sentiment quite as much as the rest of us. As a matter of fact, I would suspect a great portion of Bc'ers, being fixed income retirees, wouldn't want any separation as it may disrupt their cushy lifestyle for longer than they have left on the planet. I can understand that attitude.

[Riverwind]

It was a tongue in cheek query obviously, but reflective of the fact that BC doesn't seem to have the western sentiment quite as much as the rest of us. As a matter of fact, I would suspect a great portion of Bc'ers, being fixed income retirees, wouldn't want any separation as it may disrupt their cushy lifestyle for longer than they have left on the planet. I can understand that attitude.

It has more to do with the urban/rural divide than age. Vancouver is a large multicltural city with many of the same issues that Toronto has. So it makes sense that Vancouverites find they have more in common with the people of Toronto than Calgary.

The same thing will happen to Calgary in about 10 or 15 years if the oil boom continues.

[Hawk]

First, Alberta could survive on its own EASILY. I mean, if we are already paying you all our oil revenues (around 8.6 billion 2004-2005, and we pay out over 9 billion to Ottawa than we recieve back in services) and our oil royalties aren't even included in the have/have-not equation... that means we are rich with or without the oil =p

Oh, and the 'urban/rural' divide isn't nearly so pronounced as you claim, since 4 out of 5 Albertans live in an urban location. The rednecks have always been pissed, now the city-folk are agreeing

PS More likely Vancouver is more like Toronto in the fact they both have enormous welfare budgets and serious homeless problems... another wonderful by-product of a socialist utopian failed experiment

[Riverwind]

First, Alberta could survive on its own EASILY. I mean, if we are already paying you all our oil revenues (around 8.6 billion 2004-2005, and we pay out over 9 billion to Ottawa than we recieve back in services) and our oil royalties aren't even included in the have/have-not equation... that means we are rich with or without the oil =p

If Alberta or Quebec tries tries to seperate then economic chaos will follow and everyone loses. You could make the case that Albertans will lose less than the rest of the country, however, Albertans will still end up further behind because the uncertainity will drive interest rates up and the Canadian dollar down. That, of course, assumes that you don't end in a open war with native groups that will likely claim most of Alberta's oil fields for themselves.

Oh, and the 'urban/rural' divide isn't nearly so pronounced as you claim, since 4 out of 5 Albertans live in an urban location. The rednecks have always been pissed, now the city-folk are agreeing

Calgary is still a relatively small homegenous city. It has half the size of Vancouver and only 20% of the size of Toronto. It does not have the large number of new immigrants which create unique challenges for these cities.

PS More likely Vancouver is more like Toronto in the fact they both have enormous welfare budgets and serious homeless problems... another wonderful by-product of a socialist utopian failed experiment

Vancouver collects homeless because of its weather. Toronto because of its size. Calgary will eventually have its own problem.

[B. Max]

If Alberta or Quebec tries tries to seperate then economic chaos will follow and everyone loses. You could make the case that Albertans will lose less than the rest of the country, however, Albertans will still end up further behind because the uncertainity will drive interest rates up and the Canadian dollar down. That, of course, assumes that you don't end in a open war with native groups that will likely claim most of Alberta's oil fields for themselves.

You make the mistake that all the nonsense that destroyed the country in the first place will continue as usual. It will not. The indians can claim what they want. That will not be the problem. The problem will be containing those who will want to get even for nonsense so far, and that won't be any small minority.

[August1991]

Chaos everywhere. Oil brings in money but the real jobs are created in other industries that need private sector investment that would be put on hold or go to other countries until the mess is sorted out. The Canadian dollar would collapse in value and interest rates would skyrocket (who would loan any money to the Canadian govt, federal or provincial, in such circumstances). Everyone's standard of living would drop dramatically.

Sparhawk, those kind of scary arguments don't really work in Quebec anymore, and I suspect they'll never work in Alberta. In the long run, a country cannot be held together by fear.

If Alberta or Quebec tries tries to seperate then economic chaos will follow and everyone loses.

I simply don't think that is true. In any case, the choice is not really between "separation" and "centralized state". When it comes, the choice will be between "loose federalism" and "devolution of some sort".

For example, I have the impression that many Albertans would have been quite happy if same-sex marriage had been left as a provincial question. And I think too that they would prefer to have more certain control over their oil and gas royalties.

[Black Dog]

Currently there is a strong sentiment in the West to get out from under Eastern Canada’s thumb. A poll conducted by The Western Standard has found that over 1/3 of all Westerners are open to the idea of separating from Canada, while close to 50% of Albertans are in favor. All it will take is a few more outrages on the part of the buffoons running this country to take this sentiment beyond 50%. Unlike Quebec, the West has nothing to lose by separating and plenty to gain.

Christ, what I wouldn't give to see a reliable poll done to guage seperatists sentiment. Because in the pols that matter (that is: elections) support for western separation is a non-entity.

I actually am starting to think that every single person in favour of western separation is posting to this board. Both of 'em.

[Riverwind]

Sparhawk, those kind of scary arguments don't really work in Quebec anymore, and I suspect they'll never work in Alberta.

The fact is these scenarios are quite likely. I can't help it if Quebec separatists want to live in denial. I certainly don't believe people who understand the realities of session should not warn people of the consequences.

Think about it: Canadians cannot agreed on a constitution how could they possibility agree on terms of secession?

The situation will be aggravated further if Quebec declares a UDI: that is an act of war that basically says "if Canada tries to enforce its sovereignty in any territory that we have unilaterally decide belongs to us then we will respond with force'. How can there be any fair resolution in that situation?

It is time separatists grew up an realized that breaking up a country is not a parlour game: it is serious business with serious consequences.

In the long run, a country cannot be held together by fear.

A family cannot reolve it problems if one or two members constantly pick up a gun and threaten to use it on everyone.

[B. Max]

Sparhawk, those kind of scary arguments don't really work in Quebec anymore, and I suspect they'll never work in Alberta.

The fact is these scenarios are quite likely. I can't help it if Quebec separatists want to live in denial. I certainly don't believe people who understand the realities of session should not warn people of the consequences.

Think about it: Canadians cannot agreed on a constitution how could they possibility agree on terms of secession?

The situation will be aggravated further if Quebec declares a UDI: that is an act of war that basically says "if Canada tries to enforce its sovereignty in any territory that we have unilaterally decide belongs to us then we will respond with force'. How can there be any fair resolution in that situation?

It is time separatists grew up an realized that breaking up a country is not a parlour game: it is serious business with serious consequences.

In the long run, a country cannot be held together by fear.

A family cannot reolve it problems if one or two members constantly pick up a gun and threaten to use it on everyone.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So far you are the only one making threats. Albertans will rise to any occasion they have to.

[Riverwind]

So far you are the only one making threats. Albertans will rise to any occasion they have to.

I have made no threats. I am simply stating what I believe to be obvious: breaking up a country is a nasty business and will have serious economic consequences. Why don't you try explain to me why triggering a run on the Canadian dollar and a huge spike in interest rates for at least 5 to 10 years will be good for the Alberta economy?

If you believe that such an outcome is unlikely then please explain what happened in 1997 during the Asian currency crises? Do you believe that the paltry oil wealth of Alberta will be able to stave off a similar disaster in the currency markets for Canada?

Please explain why you believe currency speculators would not dump the Canadian dollar like a hot potato if Quebec or Alberta declares a UDI?

[August1991]

So far you are the only one making threats. Albertans will rise to any occasion they have to.

I have made no threats. I am simply stating what I believe to be obvious: breaking up a country is a nasty business and will have serious economic consequences. Why do you try explain to me why triggering a run on the Canadian dollar and a huge spike in interest rates will be good for the Alberta economy?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Estonia has done very well with the break up of the Soviet Union.

[Riverwind]

Estonia has done very well with the break up of the Soviet Union.

Estonia's economy was a basket case to start with (as was the other SSRs). They had no where to go but up.

The 1997 currency crisis decimated the east asian economies. How can you seriously believe that a bitter squabble over the Canadian national debt would not trigger a similar crisis?

[newbie]

Currently there is a strong sentiment in the West to get out from under Eastern Canada’s thumb. A poll conducted by The Western Standard has found that over 1/3 of all Westerners are open to the idea of separating from Canada, while close to 50% of Albertans are in favor. All it will take is a few more outrages on the part of the buffoons running this country to take this sentiment beyond 50%. Unlike Quebec, the West has nothing to lose by separating and plenty to gain.

Christ, what I wouldn't give to see a reliable poll done to guage seperatists sentiment. Because in the pols that matter (that is: elections) support for western separation is a non-entity.

I actually am starting to think that every single person in favour of western separation is posting to this board. Both of 'em.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hear hear Black Dog. What a mindless lot of drivel.

[kimmy]

This means the west will be relevant in the next few elections.

I'll believe it when I see it...

Even Landslide Annie's seat in Alberta is critical to the Liberals - they need it for credibility.

Nonsense. They'll sleep just fine at night without a token Albertan in Cabinet. What credibility does having Landslide Annie in cabinet get them?

If the Liberals get stomped again in Alberta-- and they will-- it'll probably help their fortunes elsewhere in the country, in fact. There was a kernel of truth in one of the nutbar articles that whatsisname linked to: at a time like this, when energy prices are sky high and everybody hates the oil business, there's political gain to be made elsewhere by taking on "the Alberta oil barons".

You just threaten dem wit de "tough love," as a noted Shawiniganite once put it.

I actually am starting to think that every single person in favour of western separation is posting to this board. Both of 'em.

I think you've drastically underestimated the size of the Byfield clan

-k

[mirror]

I actually am starting to think that every single person in favour of western separation is posting to this board. Both of 'em.

Best quote of the year in the federal politics section of MLW

I think you've drastically underestimated the size of the Byfield clan

And best response!

And I thought it was just the Christies. The Byfields as well.

The numbers are starting to add up. This is more like it.

Canadians should be celebrating Alberta's good fortunes, and apparently there are job opportunities there as well. So those who are envious of Alberta's success get on your ski doo and come to Alberta. I think Jim Dinning will become premier and will be successful at it as he has some great ideas at least as far as keeping jobs in Alberta are concerned.