Layton Overtakes Harper Second Most Popular Leader

mirror · August 15, 2005

L - 39%

C - 25%

N - 19%

mirror · August 15, 2005

The NDP are now within 6% of the Conservatives. With Layton's popularity, he has now overtaken Harper as second most popular leader, I would not be surprised to see the NDP close the gap with the Conservatives before too much longer. Harper's BBQ circuit this past summer sure has backfired on him. And now Harper has to bribe people with $5. to come and talk with him. Jeez!

Mad_Michael · August 15, 2005

Without a doubt, Jack Layton is rather television-friendly and in person he's extremely likeable.

Neither is apparently true with Harper. No doubt if ideology were put aside, Layton would probably be the next Prime Minister.

mirror · August 15, 2005

Well there is a message here for the NDP. If they moderate their policies somewhat they will do better at the polls. We'll see what they decide to do, as we may well be having an election this Fall, especially if the Liberals feel they have a shot at a majority government.

Shady · August 15, 2005

No doubt if ideology were put aside, Layton would probably be the next Prime Minister

Exactly. The problem is, ideology is the most important part of a leader of a political party. What Jack doesn't have going for him are his positions on issues, and his affiliation to the NDP. Both are highly unfavourable. He also has the Canadian leftist media in love with him, as opposed to Harper, who they dislike immensely because of his political views.

mirror · August 15, 2005

No doubt if ideology were put aside, Layton would probably be the next Prime Minister
Exactly. The problem is, ideology is the most important part of a leader of a political party. What Jack doesn't have going for him are his positions on issues, and his affiliation to the NDP. Both are highly unfavourable. He also has the Canadian leftist media in love with him, as opposed to Harper, who they dislike immensely because of his political views.

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Actually it is Harper and the Conservative ideology that is killing Conservatives with the Canadian voters. Their positions on SSM, abortion, capital punishment, crime, security, war in Iraq, the US, taxes, etc. are diametrically opposed to what the average Canadian wants.

Shady · August 15, 2005

Actually it is Harper and the Conservative ideology that is killing Conservatives with the Canadian voters. Their positions on SSM, abortion, capital punishment, crime, security, war in Iraq, the US, taxes, etc. are diametrically opposed to what the average Canadian wants

That's factually incorrect. The majority of Canadians were opposed to the SSM legislation rammed through by the federal liberals. That's a fact. The majority of Canadians are against abortion on demand, and are against late-term and partial-birth abortions. The majority of Canadians are frustrated with the level of taxation in this country. And the majority of Canadians are against the revolving door prision system that's evolved under the liberal government.

Slightly more than half – 52 per cent – of the 1,203 respondents said they disagreed with the Liberal government's plan to change the definition of marriage to include same-sex couples.

Nearly as many people – 44 per cent of respondents – said they supported Bill C-38, the legislation that would make the change law.

CBC

(BTW, you gotta love the CBC/liberal spin on the poll. Apparently 44% is nearly the same as 52%, ah the good'ol liberal media).

Mad_Michael · August 15, 2005

Well there is a message here for the NDP. If they moderate their policies somewhat they will do better at the polls. We'll see what they decide to do, as we may well be having an election this Fall, especially if the Liberals feel they have a shot at a majority government.

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This lesson has been on the table for 30 years. The NDP have ignored it at every opportunity.

Indeed, the same lesson is on the table for the Conservatives now for 15 years. They apparently are doing their best to ignore it.

Bottom line is, addressing the electorate is considered secondary to ideological purity. Apparently ideological purity is of the highest importance.

Leader Circle · August 15, 2005

The Star should change it's name to "The Toronto Liberal News". Again we are back to bias and worthless newspapers. People who waste their time with this trash, need to find a better hobby.

Mad_Michael · August 15, 2005

(BTW, you gotta love the CBC/liberal spin on the poll. Apparently 44% is nearly the same as 52%, ah the good'ol liberal media).

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Actually, depending on how much you know about statistics and polling - 44% and 52% are pretty much the same thing. Change a word or two in the question or change the word order and you can have that much swing. Change the order of the offered choice answers and you can swing the results that much. If you use a nice confusing poll question with "partly satisfied" or "mostly satisfied" or "totally satisfied" (and the negative opposites) you can really swing the results in any direction you want.

And spinning the results in the direction you want is the whole purpose of polls.

Polls are not used to measure public opinion or to inform the government what the people want (or don't want). Polls are published in the hope of creating the desired opinions (to make them real, as it were). Thus, large amounts of money and efforts are expended to construct polls in just the right way to support the chosen political agenda.

mirror · August 15, 2005

Well said.

Mad_Michael · August 15, 2005

The Star should change it's name to "The Toronto Liberal News". Again we are back to bias and worthless newspapers. People who waste their time with this trash, need to find a better hobby.

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Why? The Toronto Star is quite successful in selling advertising pages.

What more could you possibly want from a newspaper? Like, what else do newspapers do?

Is there any other standard for judging newspapers? Either they are successful in selling advertising pages or they are not.

The ultimate perfect newspaper is one with only advertising in it and no editorial crap. No doubt our corporate masters are still working on this one.

On this basis, I should think the people who need to find a better hobby might be those who rant about newspapers successfully selling advertising. Talk about a waste of time. Are you suggesting that the Toronto Star ought to not sell advertising pages? Are you an investor in this corporation or a competitor?

Shady · August 15, 2005

Actually, depending on how much you know about statistics and polling - 44% and 52% are pretty much the same thing

No, 52% and 44% are not the same thing. How about we split a million dollars? I'll take 52% and you take 44%. And then tell me how equal they are. When a politician finds themselves down 52% to 44%, they don't say "gee, I'm even". That's ridiculous. However, my problem with the poll was CBC's biased headline. Because, if the percentages were reversed, you just know that the headline of the story would have been "Majority of Canadians Support Liberal's SSM Legislation."

Change a word or two in the question or change the word order and you can have that much swing

True. But I'm not talking about changing anything related to this poll. I'm talking about the results. Yes, if someone polled using a differently worded question, they could/would get different results.

Polls are not used to measure public opinion or to inform the government what the people want (or don't want)

Actually, some polls are used to measure public opinion.

shoop · August 15, 2005

Actually, depending on how much you know about statistics and polling - 44% and 52% are pretty much the same thing. Change a word or two in the question or change the word order and you can have that much swing. Change the order of the offered choice answers and you can swing the results that much. If you use a nice confusing poll question with "partly satisfied" or "mostly satisfied" or "totally satisfied" (and the negative opposites) you can really swing the results in any direction you want.
And spinning the results in the direction you want is the whole purpose of polls.

Polls are not used to measure public opinion or to inform the government what the people want (or don't want). Polls are published in the hope of creating the desired opinions (to make them real, as it were). Thus, large amounts of money and efforts are expended to construct polls in just the right way to support the chosen political agenda.

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Holy crap you are an arrogant prick Mikey.

From the sounds of your reply you think you know a lot about statistics and polling. An 8% swing is pretty big, and any reputable pollster will tell you so.

Your urban intellectual spin on the possible misuses of polls comes straight out of a textbook. In reality very little money is spent 'to construct polls in just the right way'. All pollsters use the same basic type of questions, for ethical and cost reasons. i.e. it is a lot cheaper to just use the same standard questions. Reputable pollsters use randomization programs to eliminate question order problems and the potential to actually drive public opinion with poll results is little

to none.

I expected better from a self-proclaimed urban Toronto intellectual.

btw, you still haven't answered the question. Do you work at Starbucks or Chapters? :rolleyes:

Black Dog · August 15, 2005

No, 52% and 44% are not the same thing. How about we split a million dollars? I'll take 52% and you take 44%. And then tell me how equal they are. When a politician finds themselves down 52% to 44%, they don't say "gee, I'm even". That's ridiculous. However, my problem with the poll was CBC's biased headline. Because, if the percentages were reversed, you just know that the headline of the story would have been "Majority of Canadians Support Liberal's SSM Legislation."

Let me explain it to you:the margin of error on the poll is +/- 2.9 percentage points. That means the 52 per cent figure could be as high as 55 or as low as 49 per cent. The 44 per cent figure, thenm, could be as low as 41 or as high as 47. Statisticaly speaking, that's a very slim margin. It certainly is in line with othe rpolls on the matter which have shown an almost even split on the SSM issue.

That's a fact. The majority of Canadians are against abortion on demand, and are against late-term and partial-birth abortions.

Wrong. Most polls on abortion show that most Canadians are pro-choice.

In a Leger poll taken September 2001, 46.6% of respondents say they are personally "for" abortion, while 37.6% say they are personally "against" abortion. In the same poll, 54.5% of respondents agreed with the idea that "only women should have the right to decide to have an abortion," while 38.5% disagreed.

A Gallup poll in December 2001 asked respondents: "Do you think abortions should be legal under any circumstances, legal only under certain circumstances or illegal in all circumstances and in what circumstances?" The results showed that 32 percent of Canadians believed abortion should be legal in all circumstances (down from 37% in 2000), 52 percent believed abortion should only be legal in certain circumstances and 14 percent thought abortions should be illegal in all circumstances, (up 9 percent from 2000).

In a Leger poll taken January 2002, 47% of respondents said abortion was "not immoral," while 41.8% said it was.

In a poll conducted by the National Post in November 2002, 78 per cent of respondents answered "yes" to the question: "Should women have complete freedom on their decision to have an abortion?".

A poll in October 2003 conducted by Leger asked about prenatal legal protection, and several abortion-related topics. 63% said they favoured legal protection for human life before birth and 69% favour informed consent legislation on abortion.

In a Gallup Canada poll taken September 2004, 54% of respondents said they personally thought abortion was "morally acceptable."

In a Gallup Canada poll taken April 2005, 52% of respondents say they would like to see Canadian abortion laws "remain the same," 20% say they would like the laws to be "less strict," while 24% say they would like the laws to be "more strict."

Among provinces, British Columbia and Quebec have the highest percentage who are pro-choice, and the Prairies have the highest percentage who are pro-life. (Thank you wikipedia!)

The majority of Canadians are frustrated with the level of taxation in this country

Public opinion polls consistently place health care, education and intergovernmental cooperation at the top of the list of Canadians' priorities, far ahead of taxation. And while people may grumble about it, most would rather see their tax dollars put to good use (democratic reform also tops tax cuts as a prority).

mirror · August 15, 2005

- from SES Research

To follow are the results of our latest national poll completed last week.
Our national survey completed Monday August 8, 2005 shows the Liberals with a 14 point lead over the Conservatives. Martin leads Layton as best PM by 16 points and 39% of Canadians would describe Liberal government performance as average.

"The big Liberal gains were in Quebec where they increased their support from 21% to 34% while the Conservatives have dropped from 11% to 4%."

"Polling clearly shows that Stephen Harper's image is in a free fall. In the past 90 days the percentage of Canadians who believe he would make the best Prime Minister has dropped from 27% to 14%. Jack Layton has mathematically placed second, the first time in SES Best PM tracking."

"The other dramatic move has been the number of Canadians who chose ënone of the aboveí as their best PM. This has more than doubled from 8% to 19%. This is truly our summer of discontent. Paul Martin still rates as the first choice of Canadians at 31%, 16 points ahead of his nearest rival."

Polling August 4th to August 8th, 2005 random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Canada - Ballot (Change from Previous Quarter, N= 865 Decided voters, MoE ± 3.4%, 19 times out of 20)

LIB - 39% (+3)

CP - 25% (-5)

NDP -19% (+1)

BQ - 13% (+1)

GP - 5% (+1)

*14% were undecided (+2)

Best PM (Change from Previous Quarter, N=1,000)

Martin - 31% (-1)

Layton - 15% (0)

Harper - 14% (-13)

Duceppe - 8% (+2)

None - 19% (+11)

Undecided - 13% (+4)

Government Performance (Change from Previous Quarter, N=1,000)

Very good - 6% (0)

Somewhat good - 21% (+4)

Average - 39% (+8)

Somewhat poor - 17% (-1)

Very poor - 16% (-9)

Unsure - 2% (-1)

Mad_Michael · August 15, 2005

Holy crap you are an arrogant prick Mikey.

Arrogant yes, prick sometimes, Mikey never.

From the sounds of your reply you think you know a lot about statistics and polling. An 8% swing is pretty big, and any reputable pollster will tell you so.

Yes, that's because the reputable pollster wants you to believe in his polls. He/she has a vested interested in such.

Your urban intellectual spin on the possible misuses of polls comes straight out of a textbook.

Yes, textbooks are good for teaching skepticism. Is there anything wrong with this?

Btw, does this specific poll report support your personal views?

In reality very little money is spent 'to construct polls in just the right way'. All pollsters use the same basic type of questions, for ethical and cost reasons. i.e. it is a lot cheaper to just use the same standard questions. Reputable pollsters use randomization programs to eliminate question order problems and the potential to actually drive public opinion with poll results is little
to none.

Well, every one is entitled to disagree. I've stated my view of how polls are constructed in order to advance a goal. I've seen ample evidence of this over the years.

Your assertion is apparently valid, though I've never seen anything to actually support your contention - besides your contention (always the same from those who want to believe the results of the polls). Perhaps we ought to have this discussion involving a poll with results you don't like?

I expected better from a self-proclaimed urban Toronto intellectual.

Then the failure is yours entirely.

btw, you still haven't answered the question. Do you work at Starbucks or Chapters?

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Bemused giggles. Forgive me, I didn't see the question posted earlier. In case you are curious, I run a mid-sized printing & graphics company.

shoop · August 15, 2005

Arrogant yes, prick sometimes, Mikey never.

Credit for having a sense of humour.

Yes, that's because the reputable pollster wants you to believe in his polls. He/she has a vested interested in such.

The reputable pollster, by definition, has a vested interest in providing credible results.

Yes, textbooks are good for teaching skepticism. Is there anything wrong with this?

Textbooks don't teach you about real life. If you had ever actually seen a poll constructed, performed or analyzed you wouldn't come off so misinformed.

Btw, does this specific poll report support your personal views?

I am one of the rare people who could give a rat's ass one way or the other about SSM. I honestly don't care. So I dunno, does this poll support my personal view? As a supporter of the CPC I honestly wish Stephen Harper would just let the issue die because it is helping to keep him stagnant and reinforces the Alberta, redneck stereotype.

Well, every one is entitled to disagree. I've stated my view of how polls are constructed in order to advance a goal. I've seen ample evidence of this over the years.
Your assertion is apparently valid, though I've never seen anything to actually support your contention - besides your contention (always the same from those who want to believe the results of the polls). Perhaps we ought to have this discussion involving a poll with results you don't like?

One link to one piece of this ample evidence you talk about?

As I stated I am a supporter of the CPC and don't like the 12 percent lead the Liberals have in the most recent strategic council poll. But, Allan Gregg is a reputable pollster. So while I don't like those results I accept them at face value.

In case you are curious, I run a mid-sized printing & graphics company.

Ahhh, see that's where we disagree. I would call myself an 'intellectual' only if I worked in academia or a think tank perhaps. But denial ain't just a river in Egypt...

mirror · August 15, 2005

If the Conservatives were smart they would do two things right away:

1 Dump Harper

2 Lost some of their unpopular social policies

But who says Conservatives are smart, eh!

shoop · August 15, 2005

If the Conservatives were smart they would do two things right away:
1 Dump Harper

2 Lost some of their unpopular social policies

But who says Conservatives are smart, eh!

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Dumping Harper before the next election only plays into the hands of the Liberals. A new leader would give the Liberals the opportunity to call an election before he/she could introduce him/herself to the Canadian public.

The only unpopular social policy left is SSM. I completely agree it should be dumped.

They have dumped the abortion plank. They have committed to saving medicare. They have a workable plan for a national daycare program.

The key to the next election for the CPC is to make it all about medicare. They are the only credible national governing party that will invoke the notwithstanding clause to save medicare. A brilliant move which wins them the election. Will they do it though?

Riverwind · August 15, 2005

If the Conservatives were smart they would do two things right away:
1 Dump Harper

2 Lost some of their unpopular social policies

Maybe they could draft Jack Layton as their leader

Mad_Michael · August 15, 2005

If the Conservatives were smart they would do two things right away:
1 Dump Harper

2 Lost some of their unpopular social policies

Maybe they could draft Jack Layton as their leader

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Unlikely. If changing the leader was the solution to the problem, then why didn't dumping Preston work? Or dumping Stockwell?

If dumping Preston or Stockwell didn't work, why would anyone expect dumping Harper to miraculously catapult the Reform-Conservative-Alliance party into power?

The problem is the platform, not the leader - though Harper is too stiff to sell on tv and that is the only criteria I think that is relevant for a political leader in todays day and age.

In other words, the Reform-Alliance-Conservatives can install the most charismatic leader around and they will still lose the next election. The problem is the policy.

Mad_Michael · August 15, 2005

Dumb question... what is this "CPC" I see people talking about. I've never heard of that acronym.

Is that the Conservative Party of Canada?

Argus · August 15, 2005

Actually it is Harper and the Conservative ideology that is killing Conservatives with the Canadian voters. Their positions on SSM, abortion, capital punishment, crime, security, war in Iraq, the US, taxes, etc. are diametrically opposed to what the average Canadian wants.

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Actually, not.

Conservative party positions on those issues are pretty much in the mainstream. Anywhere from 40%-65% of Canadians agree with them on all those issues. And if you eliminate the rabid left, those Canadians, like yourself, who wouldn't vote Conservative if the hand of God himself came down and placed a halo around his head, then the numbers are even higher.

Then again, since you said that anyone against SSM doesn't even qualify as a person you are probably simply counting only those who agree with you on those issues as "Canadian". So then yes, I suppose you could indeed say tory positions were diamatetrically opposed to what the "average" Canadian wants.