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Bernier's Party at 13% in the polls


-1=e^ipi

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http://abacusdata.ca/will-max-bernier-be-a-spoiler-for-the-conservative-party/

 

Maxime Bernier is at 13% nationally and beats the Conservatives, Bloc Quebecois, and NDP in Quebec.

 

So much for the claims that his support won't amount to anything.

 

Do you think this poll is too early to be reliable, or does it suggest that Maxime Bernier is a serious contender for 2019?

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1 hour ago, -1=e^ipi said:

http://abacusdata.ca/will-max-bernier-be-a-spoiler-for-the-conservative-party/

 

Maxime Bernier is at 13% nationally and beats the Conservatives, Bloc Quebecois, and NDP in Quebec.

 

So much for the claims that his support won't amount to anything.

 

Do you think this poll is too early to be reliable, or does it suggest that Maxime Bernier is a serious contender for 2019?

So early that one wonders what the motivation might be. No party to "vote" for? No problem. Look into Abacus Data and Bruce Anderson and you will find a pretty tight thread to Summa Strategies and Earnscliffe Strategies - both conveniently tied to the Liberal Party. The poll is so hypothetical and speculative as to be meaningless.

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1 hour ago, -1=e^ipi said:

http://abacusdata.ca/will-max-bernier-be-a-spoiler-for-the-conservative-party/

 

Maxime Bernier is at 13% nationally and beats the Conservatives, Bloc Quebecois, and NDP in Quebec.

 

So much for the claims that his support won't amount to anything.

 

Do you think this poll is too early to be reliable, or does it suggest that Maxime Bernier is a serious contender for 2019?

They've added together those who say they would vote for such a party and those who say they'd consider it. But they only gave three policies, and none of those policies are among the top policies which generally guide Canadians' voting intentions. Once you add other policies into the mix, and his halting English and background and the attacks the other parties will be making on him, not to mention once he tries to develop new policies, well.... Plus he's got no money to run a party with and no time to raise millions of dollars to do it.

There is certainly dissatisfaction from conservative about the degree to which their principles are being ignored because the Tory party takes their votes for granted and softens their stance on everything in hopes of drawing in more centrist and undecided voters. I think that's a mistake by the party, personally. I think instead of hiding their conservative principals so as to not offend the media they should stand behind them and explain them.

For example. All the Tories will say about the border crossers is we should renegotiate a safe third party agreement with the US - which I think most of us realize has no incentive to do so and is unlikely to want to oblige us. What then? The tories won't suggest anything else in case it seems harsh or offends the media or the lefties (who won't be voting for them anyway). They certainly won't suggest setting up camps to hold them, or passing new legislation under the notwithstanding clause to speed hearings along. That might be controversial! Ooooo! Scary, scary!

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4 hours ago, -1=e^ipi said:

http://abacusdata.ca/will-max-bernier-be-a-spoiler-for-the-conservative-party/

 

Maxime Bernier is at 13% nationally and beats the Conservatives, Bloc Quebecois, and NDP in Quebec.

 

So much for the claims that his support won't amount to anything.

 

Do you think this poll is too early to be reliable, or does it suggest that Maxime Bernier is a serious contender for 2019?

The only numbers that matter pertaining to Bernier are in his own riding.

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5 hours ago, -1=e^ipi said:

Maxime Bernier is at 13% nationally and beats the Conservatives, Bloc Quebecois, and NDP in Quebec.

So much for the claims that his support won't amount to anything.

Do you think this poll is too early to be reliable, or does it suggest that Maxime Bernier is a serious contender for 2019?

I think the interesting aspect of this poll is that the Libs are down to 34 percent support. It's almost impossible to imagine they could win another majority with this level of support. It also suggests that Bernier's party, if it comes to fruition, could peel supporters away from both the Libs and NDP. If recent polling indicating significant dissatisfaction with immigration levels and other fairly recent polling indicating concerns about multiculturalism are indicative of broader trends, there's an appetite for change among supporters of all three traditional mainstream parties. And Bernier's economic and trade policies, once fleshed out, could well appeal to a broad constituency. The fact that Bernier's proposed party is starting off with the support of more than one-in-eight voters when a lot of Canadians don't yet know much, if anything, about it suggests that the movement has a lot of room for growth. According to the Abacus polling, 49 percent of respondents indicate they'll either vote for Bernier's party or consider doing so, which is a stunning result for a party that doesn't even exist at this point. I think it's far too early to write off the project even though MSM commentators have been tripping over each other to declare it ill-fated before Bernier has a chance to develop the idea.

Edited by turningrite
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1 hour ago, turningrite said:

But if he starts a new national party you will have an opportunity to vote for it, provided of course that you're entitled to vote in Canadian elections.

Sometimes a local candidate can be very different from the leader. For example, the leader might prove competent whereas the local candidate is just a bench warmer or viced versa. It's hard to say I'll vote for an abstraction like a party.

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Here are some conclusions we can draw from this poll of 1000 canadians.

  • Bernier is already a serious contender, even though he has not even picked a name for his new party yet.
  • Half the support for the new party comes from left-leaning canadians.

DlipyjrXgAIkA6E.thumb.jpg.296fa7ada5236228702f6a4c2284dd5f.jpg

  • Fully 33% of respondents say they would consider voting for Maxime. This hints at immense dissatisfaction for the choices were currently have.

Slide14-2.thumb.png.19b584e72cc17fc453adb5dfe88d10fa.pngH

  • Most Canadians agree with Max that the Conservative party is too corrupt to be saved.

Slide11-1.thumb.png.d56ea896638826951b3385be56442ba9.png

  • Bernier's strongholds are Quebec and the prairies.

1535300203367.thumb.png.56be07500b2a8aecba71d28318dfd889.png

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17 hours ago, Lentils said:

Here are some conclusions we can draw from this poll of 1000 canadians.

  • Bernier is already a serious contender, even though he has not even picked a name for his new party yet.
  • Half the support for the new party comes from left-leaning canadians.

I have pointed out in some of my posts that the Abacus polling indicates that up to 49% of Canadian voters would at least consider supporting Bernier's proposed party, which is a stunning result. Further, I've noted that his proposed party appears to pull support from both sides of the political spectrum. CPC supporters on here seem apoplectic about Bernier's impact on their party's prospects, however at present the most important single impact would appear to be to reduce Lib support from near-majority to minority status. If Bernier actually does form a party, and given that there's a year to go until the next election, the entire Canadian political landscape could be reshaped. For those who are tired of the lack of choice afforded by the traditional tri-party arrangement in Ottawa, Bernier's proposal seems a breath of fresh air.

 

Edited by turningrite
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1 hour ago, turningrite said:

I have pointed out in some of my posts that the Abacus polling indicates that up to 49% of Canadian voters would at least consider supporting Bernier's proposed party, which is a stunning result.

And I have pointed out that you cannot have a political party with only three narrow policies, especially when those three involve NAFTA, which will have been dealt with by election time, Dairy marketing boards, which may well also have disappeared, and a vague suggestion about too much diversity - with no policies or ideas of what to do or not do about it. Bernier's party, if it ever exists, will have to develop and flesh out a whole host of policies on the economy, on bilingualism, immigration, and the environment. And as these are fleshed out they will turn off any number of people.

1 hour ago, turningrite said:

Further, I've noted that his proposed party appears to pull support from both sides of the political spectrum. CPC supporters on here seem apoplectic about Bernier's impact on their party's prospects,

I've seen no apoplexy, just common sense posts pointing out the inability of such a party to win much support, and that what support it does win will mostly help Justin Trudeau.

1 hour ago, turningrite said:

however at present the most important single impact would appear to be to reduce Lib support from near-majority to minority status.

No it would not. You're making that presumption based on the present political structure. With a second right leaning party pulling far more votes from the Tories than the Liberals this will enable Liberal candidates to win across the country with a lower percentage of the vote than it would otherwise require.

1 hour ago, turningrite said:

If Bernier actually does form a party, and given that there's a year to go until the next election, the entire Canadian political landscape could be reshaped. For those who are tired of the lack of choice afforded by the traditional tri-party arrangement in Ottawa, Bernier's proposal seems a breath of fresh air.

And if if it had a more charismatic leader, someone like Kevin O'Leary, and we had a proportional rep system I'd vote for it. But we have neither of those things.

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1 hour ago, Argus said:

1.) And I have pointed out that you cannot have a political party with only three narrow policies, especially when those three involve NAFTA, which will have been dealt with by election time, Dairy marketing boards, which may well also have disappeared, and a vague suggestion about too much diversity - with no policies or ideas of what to do or not do about it. Bernier's party, if it ever exists, will have to develop and flesh out a whole host of policies on the economy, on bilingualism, immigration, and the environment. And as these are fleshed out they will turn off any number of people.

2.) I've seen no apoplexy, just common sense posts pointing out the inability of such a party to win much support, and that what support it does win will mostly help Justin Trudeau.

3.) No it would not. You're making that presumption based on the present political structure. With a second right leaning party pulling far more votes from the Tories than the Liberals this will enable Liberal candidates to win across the country with a lower percentage of the vote than it would otherwise require.

4.) And if if it had a more charismatic leader, someone like Kevin O'Leary, and we had a proportional rep system I'd vote for it. But we have neither of those things.

1.) Three policies that involve NAFTA? How did you pull that out of the air. Sure, supply management intersects with NAFTA negotiations, but immigration, refugee and multicultural policies are entirely separate. You're correct that Bernier's party, if it comes to fruition, will have to flesh out its policies. At least give it the chance to do so.

2.) I don't think you're looking at all the Abacus polling. Bernier's entry pushes Trudeau's party into minority position while it retains near majority support without the new party. I believe that a minority Trudeau government would be much better than another majority Trudeau government and it appears unlikely at this point that Scheer's CPC can overtake the Libs. Bernier's entry would upset the apple cart, for sure, but give us a real possibility for change.

3.) See previous point. Bernier's entry, while perhaps more dangerous to the CPC in terms of peeling off supporters, also cuts into Lib and NDP support. Could the Libs win a majority with, say, 32 or 33 percent of the popular vote? I suspect it's an unlikely prospect and if it ever happened would certainly put the final nail in the coffin of the FPTP system.

4.) Kevin O'Leary? Really? The American reality show guy? Hasn't that kind of thing been tried elsewhere? And he doesn't speak French.

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On 8/26/2018 at 3:28 PM, -1=e^ipi said:

http://abacusdata.ca/will-max-bernier-be-a-spoiler-for-the-conservative-party/

 

Maxime Bernier is at 13% nationally and beats the Conservatives, Bloc Quebecois, and NDP in Quebec.

 

So much for the claims that his support won't amount to anything.

 

Do you think this poll is too early to be reliable, or does it suggest that Maxime Bernier is a serious contender for 2019?

Bernier is going to screw up what could be a majority win for the conservative party. Bernier is going to let kid Trudeau stay in power for another four years. This guy needs to think about what he is doing here. This is no time to try this stunt out. :unsure:

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On 8/26/2018 at 8:40 PM, turningrite said:

I think the interesting aspect of this poll is that the Libs are down to 34 percent support. It's almost impossible to imagine they could win another majority with this level of support. It also suggests that Bernier's party, if it comes to fruition, could peel supporters away from both the Libs and NDP. If recent polling indicating significant dissatisfaction with immigration levels and other fairly recent polling indicating concerns about multiculturalism are indicative of broader trends, there's an appetite for change among supporters of all three traditional mainstream parties. And Bernier's economic and trade policies, once fleshed out, could well appeal to a broad constituency. The fact that Bernier's proposed party is starting off with the support of more than one-in-eight voters when a lot of Canadians don't yet know much, if anything, about it suggests that the movement has a lot of room for growth. According to the Abacus polling, 49 percent of respondents indicate they'll either vote for Bernier's party or consider doing so, which is a stunning result for a party that doesn't even exist at this point. I think it's far too early to write off the project even though MSM commentators have been tripping over each other to declare it ill-fated before Bernier has a chance to develop the idea.

Trudeau could still slide up the middle if there are two conservative party's fighting it out in the next election. This does not look good at all. The thought of another four years of Trudeau scares the chit out of me. :( 

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3 hours ago, turningrite said:

1.) Three policies that involve NAFTA? How did you pull that out of the air.[/quote]

You misunderstood. I said three which involve NAFTA, marketing boards and diversity.

3 hours ago, turningrite said:

 You're correct that Bernier's party, if it comes to fruition, will have to flesh out its policies. At least give it the chance to do so.

Your major hope for Bernier seems to me to be on his talk about too much diversity. I do not think he is going to come out and demand a lowering of immigration, or anything like that. Remember that when he was running for the leadership he condemned Kellie Lietch's proposal for a values test for potential immigrants. That does not strike me as someone interested in going after the anti-immigration vote.

3 hours ago, turningrite said:

. Could the Libs win a majority with, say, 32 or 33 percent of the popular vote?

It depends on how the votes lie, but I do not see a Liberal/NDP coalition as being any better for Canada. In fact, I see it as being worse for Canada, as the two would be elbowing each other to demonstrate their progressive creds and constantly one-upping each other in calling for more and more spending and diversity. A better chance for Canada would be another year for Canadians to get fed up with selfy boy and his constant strutting about his superior nobility, and a strong election from Conservatives.

3 hours ago, turningrite said:

.) Kevin O'Leary? Really? The American reality show guy? Hasn't that kind of thing been tried elsewhere? And he doesn't speak French.

He could mobilize people like no one else. If he had his own party he would get a significant chunk of conservative votes. If he or someone like him, had his own party and was calling for a complete reworking of things like health care and immigration, I think he could get more seats than the Conservative party.

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2 hours ago, taxme said:

This is no time to try this stunt out. :unsure:

It's the perfect time the start a new party. All of Canada's trade with the US is about to get destroyed and the only way to pursue free trade is to vote in a Bernier government 2019. Trudeau and Scheer are too in bed with the dairy cartel to support what is in the national interest.

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