Québec Provincial Election

[capricorn]

With 5 weeks to go until the October 1 election, the latest poll shows Philippe Couillard`s Parti Libéral du Québec (PLQ) trailing François Legault`s Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ). Legault is leading as best leader. The other parties, including the Parti Québecois (PQ), are not in the running. In terms of appetite for change, 83% want a change in government.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2018/201808/23/01-5193963-sondage-ipsos-la-presse-la-caq-part-en-tete.php

Sensing impending defeat, Couillard is desperate to improve the PLQ`s numbers and win votes, so he has promised a cheque of $150.00 to $300.00 per child.

It`s interesting to note that the CAQ has many of the characteristics of a conservative party.

A win by the CAQ and a PLQ defeat would set an interesting tone to next year`s federal election. Certainly not something that would be welcome by Trudeau and his Liberals.

[capricorn]

The money promised by Couillard would be paid annually.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2018/201808/24/01-5194097-un-cheque-de-150-a-300-par-enfant-promet-le-plq.php

[capricorn]

Quote

The Liberals have traditionally benefited from the anti-sovereigntist vote and played on federalists' fear of another referendum. With that issue off the table, Mr. Couillard recast the threat from the opposition by presenting Mr. Legault as a figure seeking conflict.

Mr. Couillard’s challenge is that Quebec voters have voiced a strong desire for change, and the Liberals have been in power for 15 nearly uninterrupted years.

So far, polls suggest Quebeckers see Mr. Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) as their political vehicle for that wish.

Mr. Legault gave a glimpse into his campaign themes by attacking the Liberal record on areas like integrity, health and education, noting Quebec’s worsening drop-out rate. Speaking at his campaign launch, he cast the Liberal government as tired.

“After 15 years in power, we have a party that is worn out, a party with a 15-year record that is depressing,” Mr. Legault said. “Quebeckers have a unique opportunity to get rid of the Liberal government, and it’s now.”

Mr. Legault promised that a CAQ government would seek more powers from Ottawa, including in the fields of language and immigration. He called for “a Quebec that will remain inside Canada, but it’s Quebec first. We are a nationalist party.”

----

Quebeckers will elect 125 members to the National Assembly (MNAs). At dissolution, the Liberals had 68 seats, the PQ had 28, the CAQ, 21, and Québec Solidaire, three. Five MNAs were sitting as independents.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-voters-voice-strong-desire-for-change-as-quebec-election-kicks-off/

Here is the English media article on Couillard's desperate attempt to buy votes by dishing out money per child, to be paid annually plus his other campaign promises.

https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec-liberals-up-to-300-per-child-per-year-offered-to-families

 

[turningrite]

2 hours ago, capricorn said:

With 5 weeks to go until the October 1 election, the latest poll shows Philippe Couillard`s Parti Libéral du Québec (PLQ) trailing François Legault`s Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ). Legault is leading as best leader. The other parties, including the Parti Québecois (PQ), are not in the running. In terms of appetite for change, 83% want a change in government.

Sensing impending defeat, Couillard is desperate to improve the PLQ`s numbers and win votes, so he has promised a cheque of $150.00 to $300.00 per child.

It`s interesting to note that the CAQ has many of the characteristics of a conservative party.

A win by the CAQ and a PLQ defeat would set an interesting tone to next year`s federal election. Certainly not something that would be welcome by Trudeau and his Liberals.

Given that Quebec's finances and economy are generally in good shape it's kind of surprising that Couillard's party isn't more popular. It would be interesting to know why this is the case. It's also interesting that Francophone Quebecers appear to be shifting to the right. With a population that's ageing more quickly than is the case in the rest of the country, with the exception of Atlantic Canada, you have to wonder if this suggests a trend? I've noticed that with sovereignty at a low ebb in Quebec there's less interest in the current election than has in recent decades generally been the case. There seems to be very little discussion about it here in Ontario even among my friends and acquaintances who are exiled Quebecers.

[capricorn]

20 hours ago, turningrite said:

Given that Quebec's finances and economy are generally in good shape it's kind of surprising that Couillard's party isn't more popular. It would be interesting to know why this is the case

The PLQ has been in power for 15 years. Legault (CAQ) said they are a "tired" government and a change is needed.

Quote

. It's also interesting that Francophone Quebecers appear to be shifting to the right.

Well a right wing party did make its way to opposition in 2002. The Action Démocratique du Québec (ADQ) did not survive and it merged with the CAQ in 2012 which is more centrist than was the ADQ.

[Machjo]

On 8/24/2018 at 11:26 AM, capricorn said:

With 5 weeks to go until the October 1 election, the latest poll shows Philippe Couillard`s Parti Libéral du Québec (PLQ) trailing François Legault`s Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ). Legault is leading as best leader. The other parties, including the Parti Québecois (PQ), are not in the running. In terms of appetite for change, 83% want a change in government.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2018/201808/23/01-5193963-sondage-ipsos-la-presse-la-caq-part-en-tete.php

Sensing impending defeat, Couillard is desperate to improve the PLQ`s numbers and win votes, so he has promised a cheque of $150.00 to $300.00 per child.

It`s interesting to note that the CAQ has many of the characteristics of a conservative party.

A win by the CAQ and a PLQ defeat would set an interesting tone to next year`s federal election. Certainly not something that would be welcome by Trudeau and his Liberals.

I vote candidate, not party. That said, I've been reading the platform of the Conservative Party of Quebec lately and there is at least a possibility that I could end up voting for its candidate. The Conservative party of Quebec, in spite of its name, is more of a classical liberal party I think.

 

Unfortunately, I have a bad track record of voting for the losing candidate (since I refuse to vote strategically and will always vote for who I believe to be the best local candidate), and it looks like this year might be no exception.

[August1991]

Impossible to predict.

Likely CAQ/PLQ minority - but either could win a majority. Heck, even the PQ could win.

It's a three-way race (CAQ/PLQ/PQ) in most places but also four-way in urban Montreal (QS/CAQ/PLQ/PQ).

Mark Steyn would probably argue that this is Socialist Party A against Socialist Party B, C, D.

[Machjo]

34 minutes ago, August1991 said:

Impossible to predict.

Likely CAQ/PLQ minority - but either could win a majority. Heck, even the PQ could win.

It's a three-way race (CAQ/PLQ/PQ) in most places but also four-way in urban Montreal (QS/CAQ/PLQ/PQ).

Mark Steyn would probably argue that this is Socialist Party A against Socialist Party B, C, D.

The Conservative Party of Quebec seems to have a mostly libertarian-leaning platform.

[capricorn]

The latest poll has the CAQ at 37%, the PLQ at 32%, the PQ at 19% and QS at 8%. Still lots of time for these numbers to change.

https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/quebec-election-caq-leading-but-liberals-still-in-the-game-poll-shows

 

[turningrite]

1 hour ago, capricorn said:

The latest poll has the CAQ at 37%, the PLQ at 32%, the PQ at 19% and QS at 8%. Still lots of time for these numbers to change.

 

Those are interesting numbers but CAQ support among Francophone voters no doubt gives the party a distinct advantage. My guess at this point is that the election is the CAQ's to lose. The PQ/SQ numbers are interesting as well because it suggests that even if the overtly nationalist vote weren't divided its support would clearly rank in third place. Of course, the old axiom is that most Francophone Quebecers are in reality nationalists of one version or another, however they appear to be shifting to the right rather than left.

[August1991]

On 8/29/2018 at 12:58 AM, Machjo said:

The Conservative Party of Quebec seems to have a mostly libertarian-leaning platform.

Every viable political party in Quebec agrees to spend other people's (Albertans) money: about $10 billion, every year.

Even the so-called right-wing CAQ is not saying that it objects to equalization payments (péréquations).

======

Fundamentally, Quebec (unlike Icelande) is not a sustainable society.

Edited September 3, 2018 by August1991

[Machjo]

3 hours ago, August1991 said:

Every viable political party in Quebec agrees to spend other people's (Albertans) money: about $10 billion, every year.

Even the so-called right-wing CAQ is not saying that it objects to equalization payments (péréquations).

======

Fundamentally, Quebec (unlike Icelande) is not a sustainable society.

Have you read the Conservative Party of Quebec's platform? It even supports a Swedish-style school-voucher program and the freedom of any English-speaking parent to send their child to school in English. It also favours allowing any shop to put up a sign in any language in the same size as French.

 

By Quebec standards, that's quite libertarian-leaning.

[August1991]

On 8/29/2018 at 11:27 AM, turningrite said:

... My guess at this point is that the election is the CAQ's to lose. The PQ/SQ numbers are interesting as well because it suggests that even if the overtly nationalist vote weren't divided its support would clearly rank in third place. Of course, the old axiom is that most Francophone Quebecers are in reality nationalists of one version or another, however they appear to be shifting to the right rather than left.

"Nationalist" vote? Would you say that Trump is appealing to the "nationalist" vote?

===

The Quebec MSM predicts - as you - that faute de mieux the CAQ may win by default.

I disagree, sorta.

Off the island, in many places, it is a 3 way race: PQ, PLQ, CAQ. (True, the PLQ is weak.)

On the island, east, it is QS, PQ, PLQ - possibly CAQ - depends on riding. West? PLQ.

I haven't looked at specific ridings yet but I reckon that overall (island, province) the CAQ, PLQ will win a majority/minority. Heck, even with a good break, the PQ could be a minority.

The PLQ/PQ/CAQ could each receive 30% of the vote overall. To determine which party has the most seats, it depends how these numbers break in specific ridings.

In Canadian provinces, the Lieutenant-Governor decides who is PM/Chief minister/premier and can present a government to the National Assembly: Quebec's name for parliament.

====

For any American readers, only the PLQ/PQ are vociferously in favour of dairy quotas. The QS are wacky San Francisco bio-urbans. Gawd knows what they think about a rural issue. The CAQ sorta favours the quotas - but doesn't need the votes.

Edited September 3, 2018 by August1991

[capricorn]

There will be a leaders' debate on Thursday. Looks like immigration will be the main issue.

Quote

The main economic challenge facing Quebec is a province-wide labour shortage that is hampering companies’ ability to seize business opportunities, especially in outlying regions, Liberal Leader Philippe Couillard said Monday.

To overcome that shortage, it’s essential to maintain and possibly even increase current immigration levels, Couillard said at a press conference in suburban Quebec City.

His two rivals, the Coalition Avenir Québec’s François Legault and the Parti Québécois’s Jean-François Lisée, propose dropping immigration levels from the current 52,000 arrivals per year to 40,000 for Legault and 35,000 to 40,000 for Lisée.

Couillard slammed those proposals Monday, as he has throughout the campaign, reiterating that slashing immigration would be an economic disaster that would stymie growth and make it even harder for employers to recruit staff.

“The main question, the ballot box issue, with the labour shortage we have, is whether it’s appropriate to propose a reduction in the number of workers who come to Quebec,” he said.

Reducing immigration “is not only an anti-economic measure, but it will limit the long-term development of Quebec,” Couillard hammered.

https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/liberals-would-help-regions-attract-and-keep-immigrant-workers

The CAQ wants immigrants to learn French within a given timeline or leave Quebec. Not surprising, the party is at only 11% of support in the latest poll.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/caq-would-give-immigrants-3-years-to-learn-french/ar-BBN08VX

The latest polling.

https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/quebec-election-liberals-slipping-in-latest-poll-as-war-for-nationalist-votes-rages

 

[August1991]

Watched the debate - not all - most.

=====

Given world events, there are two elephants in this Quebec election:

1. Quebec as Iceland = an island, alone in the world

2. Quebecers as people who share among themselves.

Edited September 15, 2018 by August1991

[Michael Hardner]

8 hours ago, August1991 said:

Given world events, there are two elephants in this Quebec election:

1. Quebec as Iceland = an island, alone in the world

2. Quebecers as people who share among themselves.

What are the choices that the various factions are offering ?  Truly it seems like Quebec has broken the ice on old politics by hosting a spectrum of parties with policies from all over the old political map.  You should be proud that you have some choices.

Unfortunately, the rest of Canada has no idea what goes on in Quebec.  Help us out with some details, friend...

[Michael Hardner]

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2018/09/quebec-solidaire-election-caq-montreal-sovereignty

Here's a survey from a left-of-centre mag that laments the current choices.  

[taxme]

On 8/24/2018 at 8:26 AM, capricorn said:

With 5 weeks to go until the October 1 election, the latest poll shows Philippe Couillard`s Parti Libéral du Québec (PLQ) trailing François Legault`s Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ). Legault is leading as best leader. The other parties, including the Parti Québecois (PQ), are not in the running. In terms of appetite for change, 83% want a change in government.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2018/201808/23/01-5193963-sondage-ipsos-la-presse-la-caq-part-en-tete.php

Sensing impending defeat, Couillard is desperate to improve the PLQ`s numbers and win votes, so he has promised a cheque of $150.00 to $300.00 per child.

It`s interesting to note that the CAQ has many of the characteristics of a conservative party.

A win by the CAQ and a PLQ defeat would set an interesting tone to next year`s federal election. Certainly not something that would be welcome by Trudeau and his Liberals.

Isn't that called bribery? 

[taxme]

On 8/25/2018 at 6:03 PM, Machjo said:

I vote candidate, not party. That said, I've been reading the platform of the Conservative Party of Quebec lately and there is at least a possibility that I could end up voting for its candidate. The Conservative party of Quebec, in spite of its name, is more of a classical liberal party I think.

 

Unfortunately, I have a bad track record of voting for the losing candidate (since I refuse to vote strategically and will always vote for who I believe to be the best local candidate), and it looks like this year might be no exception.

If your candidate is for less immigration but the leader of the party is in favor of more immigration well then it will be tough titties for your candidate. The leader of the party is the boss and not your candidate. Your candidate goes by what the leader of that party says and does or else. Voting for a candidate means dik all. At times it does appear as though voting for a candidate or party has become a useless waste of time. Especially for me because all the issues and concerns that I would like to see discussed and debated on will never get to see the light of day. I guess all of my issues and concerns are all to politically incorrect for any party or any candidate to dare want to discuss or debate about. Aw well. Carry on Canada. 

[Machjo]

17 minutes ago, taxme said:

If your candidate is for less immigration but the leader of the party is in favor of more immigration well then it will be tough titties for your candidate. The leader of the party is the boss and not your candidate. Your candidate goes by what the leader of that party says and does or else. Voting for a candidate means dik all. At times it does appear as though voting for a candidate or party has become a useless waste of time. Especially for me because all the issues and concerns that I would like to see discussed and debated on will never get to see the light of day. I guess all of my issues and concerns are all to politically incorrect for any party or any candidate to dare want to discuss or debate about. Aw well. Carry on Canada. 

Did the people who voted Bernier because they liked his ideas, whatever they thought of his party's, waste their vote?

[taxme]

4 minutes ago, Machjo said:

Did the people who voted Bernier because they liked his ideas, whatever they thought of his party's, waste their vote?

I like the idea that Bernier is willing to talk about immigration and diversity but are Canadians all that much concerned about those two issues? They should be but are they? 

[Machjo]

2 minutes ago, taxme said:

I like the idea that Bernier is willing to talk about immigration and diversity but are Canadians all that much concerned about those two issues? They should be but are they? 

Bernier's not in my riding, so I can't vote for him anyway. That's why I vote candidate, not party.

 

And by the way, Bernier is not against immigration. If you think that, then you haven't read much of what he's written. yes, he's for reducing the numbers back to the Harper era, but that's it. He's not looking for what you're looking for. You might fit in better with the Nationalist Party of Canada.

Edited September 15, 2018 by Machjo

[capricorn]

18 hours ago, taxme said:

Isn't that called bribery? 

Sure it is. All politicians do it to up their chances of being elected.

[taxme]

 

Bernier's not in my riding, so I can't vote for him anyway. That's why I vote candidate, not party.

 

And by the way, Bernier is not against immigration. If you think that, then you haven't read much of what he's written. yes, he's for reducing the numbers back to the Harper era, but that's it. He's not looking for what you're looking for. You might fit in better with the Nationalist Party of Canada.

I never said that Bernier was against immigration. Just the numbers which I have a problem with also. But what I would really like to see is a moratorium put in place on immigration for at least a decade because Canada will do just fine without any more new immigrants, especially the legal and illegal ones. They are all a heavy burden on the taxpayer's and their tax dollars by the billions. But the taxpayer does not appear at this time that they really care about how their tax dollars are being blown. Besides there is a special tree planting ceremony happening today that thousands are planning on attending. That will be more important to attend than worrying about how their tax dollars are being wasted every day.  LOL. 

I am considering the Nationalist Party of Canada. The NPC is another option for Canadians who are getting fed up with the present day politically correct puppet on  a string politicians who have pretty much shown us all that they are masters in the art of being liars and cheats and thieves and who have been running and ruining Canada for umpteen decades now. If there is a candidate on the ballot for the NPC then I may just give that person my tick. Just saying. 

 

[taxme]

 

Sure it is. All politicians do it to up their chances of being elected.

Well then, I guess that we should fire the whole dam lot then?