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Should Canada play the long game with Trump?


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We know Trump can hold a maximum of two terms according to the US Constitution. Should Canada choose to not retaliate against US tariffs and instead just emphasize the unfairness of Trump's tariffs against Canada, Canada may be able to win much more support in the US against Trump. In fact, even many Republican Senators have spoken out in defense of Canada against Trump as it is. Should Canada not retaliate, this would win Canada even more support. Sure it might hurt our economy for the next eight years, but it will hurt the US one just as much and any retaliatory tariffs will only hurt us all even more anyway. So why not just ride this one out and show Trump for the fool that he is?

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No, because Canada's retaliation tariffs are intended for domestic politics, not the well being of the Canadian consumer.   If higher prices and taxes in Canada were a big concern, then they wouldn't be purposely aggravated by supply management, provincial policies (remember Kathleen Wynne ?), inter-provincial trade barriers (what beer ?), and a longstanding dependence on export trade to a single nation, which makes Canada so much more vulnerable to Trump's trade decisions in the first place.

Canada has been challenged for tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade by other U.S. administrations and nations (e.g. New Zealand, Brazil, EU).   Trump's strategy is not only directed at Canada...Canada is not special in regard to his anti-globalist agenda.

Trump cannot be pressured with conventional political maneuvering, inside or outside his Republican party.    Trudeau and Freeland will have to continue what they have been doing for more than a year in the U.S., with no success to date.   Also better figure out how to assist Canadian interests impacted by the tariffs, or they may go under for good.  (This has happened before, having nothing to do with Trump.)

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Hello Canucks, greetings from your southern neighbor in Texas! Full disclosure I'm a Trump supporter. I would not worry too much about it canadian friends, trump is simply bargaining for "true free trade" across Nato countries. This means no tariffs or subsidies from either parties. Unfortunately, trump felt he needed to play his strong hand to rush these negotiation along. Fact of the matter is this, the trade deficit has allowed trump to use it as a bargaining chip. Not saying that there is a large deficit between US and Canada, just pointing to the fact that a trade deficit exist. Tarrifs hurts those relying on export to America (Canada, Mexico EU etc...) alot more than it hurts the American economy as we only export a few billion dollars worth of goods every year. This gives the US the upper hand in trade negotiation and Trump is simply doing that. Look you guys are our allies and friends, I wouldn't worry too much about these trade negotiation tactics. At the end of the day, you want true free trade, this helps both countries, ask any economics expert and they would point to the same thing. Think of this move not as a protectionist policy from the US (despite the rhetoric affirming so) , it is simply a move to make our alliance stronger through the practice of free trade. We are doing what is best for you Canada. No need to thank us. 

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2 minutes ago, paxrom said:

Hello Canucks, greetings from your southern neighbor in Texas! Full disclosure I'm a Trump supporter. I would not worry too much about it canadian friends, trump is simply bargaining for "true free trade" across Nato countries.

 

Agreed...Trump wants to "blow-up" existing globalism and he has to break some trade eggs to do that, and that includes Canada.   Trump is being consistent with his campaign rhetoric and election promises.    Canada has not been singled out....many nations are in for a bumpy ride, including the U.S., but we have survived far worse in the past.

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On June 13, 2018 at 7:38 PM, paxrom said:

Hello Canucks, greetings from your southern neighbor in Texas! Full disclosure I'm a Trump supporter. I would not worry too much about it canadian friends, trump is simply bargaining for "true free trade" across Nato countries. This means no tariffs or subsidies from either parties. Unfortunately, trump felt he needed to play his strong hand to rush these negotiation along. Fact of the matter is this, the trade deficit has allowed trump to use it as a bargaining chip. Not saying that there is a large deficit between US and Canada, just pointing to the fact that a trade deficit exist. Tarrifs hurts those relying on export to America (Canada, Mexico EU etc...) alot more than it hurts the American economy as we only export a few billion dollars worth of goods every year. This gives the US the upper hand in trade negotiation and Trump is simply doing that. Look you guys are our allies and friends, I wouldn't worry too much about these trade negotiation tactics. At the end of the day, you want true free trade, this helps both countries, ask any economics expert and they would point to the same thing. Think of this move not as a protectionist policy from the US (despite the rhetoric affirming so) , it is simply a move to make our alliance stronger through the practice of free trade. We are doing what is best for you Canada. No need to thank us. 

For those that were conned by trump again.here are the facts

Canada and USA signed a trade agreement called NAFTA. 

Whenever there is a dispute there is a resolution process that both countries abide by. It has been used whenever there is a disagreement . Honorable and legal.

Trump broke the agreement and he did it by lying that it was a national security concern

We know what we are dealing with. Dishonesty and deceit not integrity or principle.

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4 hours ago, Jimwd said:

For those that were conned by trump again.here are the facts

Canada and USA signed a trade agreement called NAFTA. 

Whenever there is a dispute there is a resolution process that both countries abide by. It has been used whenever there is a disagreement . Honorable and legal.

Trump broke the agreement and he did it by lying that it was a national security concern

We know what we are dealing with. Dishonesty and deceit not integrity or principle.

Eh national security concern is a wide sweeping umbrella under the president's power. Look if it makes you feel better all of us Americans feel bad about doing this to you but it's for the greater good. Just get your PM to hurry up and sign the new trade agreement. The faster you are on board with this the less issue this will make. Your national security is ours as well, we are one and the same so no need to have discord.

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6 hours ago, paxrom said:

Eh national security concern is a wide sweeping umbrella under the president's power. Look if it makes you feel better all of us Americans feel bad about doing this to you but it's for the greater good. Just get your PM to hurry up and sign the new trade agreement. The faster you are on board with this the less issue this will make. Your national security is ours as well, we are one and the same so no need to have discord.

It all depends on what Putin orders Trump to do. We'll see.

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1 hour ago, Jimwd said:

It all depends on what Putin orders Trump to do. We'll see.

I wonder if putin ordered all those sanctions on him self and his buddies. Or did he ordered us to shoot our cruise missiles in syria at his allies.  

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4 hours ago, paxrom said:

I wonder if putin ordered all those sanctions on him self and his buddies. Or did he ordered us to shoot our cruise missiles in syria at his allies.  

sanction thats were passed by congress in veto proof legislation trump refused to enact for several months and still hasn't enacted them all? Those sanctions? 

chuckle 

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2 hours ago, Jimwd said:

sanction thats were passed by congress in veto proof legislation trump refused to enact for several months and still hasn't enacted them all? Those sanctions? 

chuckle 

I find no evidence of what you mentioned. Must be fake news you were reading. But here is real news. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/06/us/politics/trump-sanctions-russia-putin-oligarchs.html

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4 minutes ago, Jimwd said:

Has it occured to you half baked intellectual that maybe the delay of implementing sanctions is part of a negotiating tactic with russia over some issue? 

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4 minutes ago, paxrom said:

Has it occured to you half baked intellectual that maybe the delay of implementing sanctions is part of a negotiating tactic with russia over some issue? 

But you said it was fake news.  Pavlovs dog does have  merit doesn't it....

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On 6/13/2018 at 7:38 PM, paxrom said:

Hello Canucks, greetings from your southern neighbor in Texas! Full disclosure I'm a Trump supporter. I would not worry too much about it canadian friends, trump is simply bargaining for "true free trade" across Nato countries. This means no tariffs or subsidies from either parties. Unfortunately, trump felt he needed to play his strong hand to rush these negotiation along. Fact of the matter is this, the trade deficit has allowed trump to use it as a bargaining chip. Not saying that there is a large deficit between US and Canada, just pointing to the fact that a trade deficit exist. Tarrifs hurts those relying on export to America (Canada, Mexico EU etc...) alot more than it hurts the American economy as we only export a few billion dollars worth of goods every year. This gives the US the upper hand in trade negotiation and Trump is simply doing that. Look you guys are our allies and friends, I wouldn't worry too much about these trade negotiation tactics. At the end of the day, you want true free trade, this helps both countries, ask any economics expert and they would point to the same thing. Think of this move not as a protectionist policy from the US (despite the rhetoric affirming so) , it is simply a move to make our alliance stronger through the practice of free trade. We are doing what is best for you Canada. No need to thank us. 

Why don't Canada and America both get rid of tariffs altogether and let the free market do their thing. Why do we need or allow both of our governments to quibble of tariffs all the time. We are both great neighbors so why are we fighting over this sillyness called tariffs? The only benefit I see for tariffs is that both governments make money from it in the form of taxes from it all and a total waste of time and effort and money from those two. I must admit that I am not all that much up on tariffs but it seems to me that there should be an easier way to stop all this nonsense going on between our two countries over tariffs. Are we friends and neighbors or not?  I say let the market place do it's thing. Just saying. 

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16 hours ago, paxrom said:

Eh national security concern is a wide sweeping umbrella under the president's power. Look if it makes you feel better all of us Americans feel bad about doing this to you but it's for the greater good. Just get your PM to hurry up and sign the new trade agreement. The faster you are on board with this the less issue this will make. Your national security is ours as well, we are one and the same so no need to have discord.

National security is important, Precisely why trump shouldn’t lie about it.

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Honestly, I oppose supply-management and tariffs. If I had my way, Canada would just adopt unilateral free trade and I supported this idea long before Trump came to power.

 

The problem with Trump though is that he doesn't understand basic psychology. By launching a trade war against Canada, he creates a toxic environment that feeds the flames of protectionist Canadians while putting pro-free-trade Canadians in a difficult situation. Should the Government of Canada  consider adopting unilateral free trade (or even show the slightest hint of anything that could appear to be defeat before Trump), it then has to seriously consider if it's prepared to accept the potential backlash. In other words, how does it do the right thing while saving face in a trade war?

 

A few solutions exist:

 

1. Canada fights back as a way to preserve its dignity and save face even if it just hurts everyone involved in the end.

2. Canada could admit defeat which would only feed future Canadian resentment against the US which could surface sometimes even years into the future when the US needs help in a war or other matter.

3. Canada could still do the right thing and adopt unilateral free trade while simply clarifying in no unambiguous terms that it is doing this in spite of Trump's actions and not because of them, that some Canadians supported such a position long before Trump came to power and that, if anything, Trump's attacks may have even  delayed this move and could even have derailed it and so he can take no credit for it.

I'd favour the third solution as a way to do the right thing while still saving face, but even that one could be a tough pill for many Canadians to swallow. Again, Trump doesn't understand the most basic points of human psychology.

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1 hour ago, Machjo said:

Honestly, I oppose supply-management and tariffs. If I had my way, Canada would just adopt unilateral free trade and I supported this idea long before Trump came to power.

 

The problem with Trump though is that he doesn't understand basic psychology. By launching a trade war against Canada, he creates a toxic environment that feeds the flames of protectionist Canadians while putting pro-free-trade Canadians in a difficult situation. Should the Government of Canada  consider adopting unilateral free trade (or even show the slightest hint of anything that could appear to be defeat before Trump), it then has to seriously consider if it's prepared to accept the potential backlash. In other words, how does it do the right thing while saving face in a trade war?

 

A few solutions exist:

 

1. Canada fights back as a way to preserve its dignity and save face even if it just hurts everyone involved in the end.

2. Canada could admit defeat which would only feed future Canadian resentment against the US which could surface sometimes even years into the future when the US needs help in a war or other matter.

3. Canada could still do the right thing and adopt unilateral free trade while simply clarifying in no unambiguous terms that it is doing this in spite of Trump's actions and not because of them, that some Canadians supported such a position long before Trump came to power and that, if anything, Trump's attacks may have even  delayed this move and could even have derailed it and so he can take no credit for it.

I'd favour the third solution as a way to do the right thing while still saving face, but even that one could be a tough pill for many Canadians to swallow. Again, Trump doesn't understand the most basic points of human psychology.

What ever you want canucks, big bro understands.Eventually free trade will be establish between our countries, its only a matter of time. The sooner we get this chapter behind us the better.  Besides you guys are our neighbors, its only natural we maintain our unity. 

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14 minutes ago, paxrom said:

What ever you want canucks, big bro understands.Eventually free trade will be establish between our countries, its only a matter of time. The sooner we get this chapter behind us the better.  Besides you guys are our neighbors, its only natural we maintain our unity. 

Just last week, the leader of Canada's opposition party demoted one of Canada's most outspoken proponent of free trade from the shadow cabinet to a backbencher, and Trump is partly to blame for that by raising the ante on both sides.

 

I very much disagree with the united stance all of Canada's political parties have presented to fight a trade war. There is no denying that Trump galvanized them in that direction.

 

If I were PM, I'd be pushing for unilateral free trade, but I can guarantee that Trump would have made it just multiple times more difficult for me to do so without looking like I was somehow waiving the white flag of defeat to the US. I could repeat as many times as I wanted that I would be proposing unilateral free trade in spite of Trump and not because of him. Yet because of the toxic environment Trump created, even if someone like Bernier was PM right now and proposed such a thing, his own party would replace him.

I'm for Canada adopting unilateral free trade and have supported it long before Trump rose up. Had Trump been willing to save Canada face, unfortunately most Canadians still don't support unilateral free trade but they might have supported edging a step closer to free trade than is presently the case. Trump has since polarized both sides so much as to undo decades of progress by raising the walls of protectionism. I dislike Canadian protectionism. I thought even Harper was way too protectionist. And now, to my surprise, we have a president in the White House who makes even Trudeau look like a free-trade enthusiast!

 

Just to give you an idea of what Trump has done, just read my posts of about a week ago. I was proposing an all-out trade war against the US come hell or high water while knowing full well that that would just hurt both sides. Now I like to think more rationally so after a few days to calm down, I regret my previous threads. But that's my personality. Not all Canadians can control their emotions in the same way. The way I reacted last week is now most Canadians had. Unlike me though, most are still thinking like I was last week and are still proposing that we escalate to a full-on trade war even if it hurts us. It's not about saving our jobs, but saving our pride so as to not look like we just backed down in a fight.

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2 hours ago, Machjo said:

Just last week, the leader of Canada's opposition party demoted one of Canada's most outspoken proponent of free trade from the shadow cabinet to a backbencher, and Trump is partly to blame for that by raising the ante on both sides.

 

I very much disagree with the united stance all of Canada's political parties have presented to fight a trade war. There is no denying that Trump galvanized them in that direction.

 

If I were PM, I'd be pushing for unilateral free trade, but I can guarantee that Trump would have made it just multiple times more difficult for me to do so without looking like I was somehow waiving the white flag of defeat to the US. I could repeat as many times as I wanted that I would be proposing unilateral free trade in spite of Trump and not because of him. Yet because of the toxic environment Trump created, even if someone like Bernier was PM right now and proposed such a thing, his own party would replace him.

I'm for Canada adopting unilateral free trade and have supported it long before Trump rose up. Had Trump been willing to save Canada face, unfortunately most Canadians still don't support unilateral free trade but they might have supported edging a step closer to free trade than is presently the case. Trump has since polarized both sides so much as to undo decades of progress by raising the walls of protectionism. I dislike Canadian protectionism. I thought even Harper was way too protectionist. And now, to my surprise, we have a president in the White House who makes even Trudeau look like a free-trade enthusiast!

 

Just to give you an idea of what Trump has done, just read my posts of about a week ago. I was proposing an all-out trade war against the US come hell or high water while knowing full well that that would just hurt both sides. Now I like to think more rationally so after a few days to calm down, I regret my previous threads. But that's my personality. Not all Canadians can control their emotions in the same way. The way I reacted last week is now most Canadians had. Unlike me though, most are still thinking like I was last week and are still proposing that we escalate to a full-on trade war even if it hurts us. It's not about saving our jobs, but saving our pride so as to not look like we just backed down in a fight.

You guys and the rest of europe have been drinking that anti trump haterade too long. I agree galvanizing you guys was a bad idea because it puts everyone in a bad spot. But trump likes to get things done. He doesn't have two terms to get a trade deal going. He is doing everything at break neck speed because he doesn't think he will get two term. This is the real reason he has upset the status quo so early on, he has nothing to loose in his mind. But a lot of us neo con actually support this and the chances for him to get re elected will be high. He has gain more follower not loose them despite what poll number or liberal media opinion exhume. Beside these trade negotiation will take years to sort out unless pressure is applied. The us economy is the envy of the world. It will hurt everyone else alot more than it will hurt us. If tariffs remain in place then american enginuity will prevail, we will find a way to reduce production cost as more producer will come to market. It will speed up the modernization of our production capability. To summarize, we have nothing to loose and everything to gain. Eventually the world economy will revert to automation of manufactured good and the need for import will reduce. So get on board canada its for your own good. 

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13 minutes ago, paxrom said:

You guys and the rest of europe have been drinking that anti trump haterade too long. I agree galvanizing you guys was a bad idea because it puts everyone in a bad spot. But trump likes to get things done. He doesn't have two terms to get a trade deal going. He is doing everything at break neck speed because he doesn't think he will get two term. This is the real reason he has upset the status quo so early on, he has nothing to loose in his mind. But a lot of us neo con actually support this and the chances for him to get re elected will be high. He has gain more follower not loose them despite what poll number or liberal media opinion exhume. Beside these trade negotiation will take years to sort out unless pressure is applied. The us economy is the envy of the world. It will hurt everyone else alot more than it will hurt us. If tariffs remain in place then american enginuity will prevail, we will find a way to reduce production cost as more producer will come to market. It will speed up the modernization of our production capability. To summarize, we have nothing to loose and everything to gain. Eventually the world economy will revert to automation of manufactured good and the need for import will reduce. So get on board canada its for your own good. 

You have more to lose than you realize, and so do we. I'm very pro-free-trade but I can tell you that Trump's behaviour is actually galvanizing Canadians (and even the Conservative Party) to dig in its heels. You are right that Canada will hurt ten times more than the US. If the US really applies pressure, Canada might raise the white flag of defeat and drop its agricultural tariffs under pressure. I would favour Canada to voluntarily and willingly drop those tariffs over time through gentle persuasion and not through national humiliation on the world stage.

 

Even if Trump succeeds in finally forcing Canada to open up its agricultural market, he will also galvanize Canadian voters to elect more anti-US politicians for decades to come. He might win on the trade front, but then future Canadian governments might start to try not only to diversify Canada's trade but also to distance Canada slowly and gradually from the US militarily. It might not mean an immediate end to NATO, but it could mean very hard feelings among NATO partners for years to come. This could affect NATO's reliability and effectiveness.

Also, other countries would take note of Canada's humiliating defeat in the trade war on the world stage. Basic psychology suggests that that could raise other countries' willingness to build closer economic ties with Canada and would they too might then want to gradually shift trade away from the US too. In other words, even if the US wins this trade war, other countries including Canada will react slowly and subtly to try to prevent the same from happening to them again. Trump would win the initial battle, but future presidents for the next few decades will need to work to rebuild trust. You don't humiliate another country on the world stage and not expect a negative reaction over the long term. National humiliation does not heal over night.

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6 minutes ago, Machjo said:

You have more to lose than you realize, and so do we. I'm very pro-free-trade but I can tell you that Trump's behaviour is actually galvanizing Canadians (and even the Conservative Party) to dig in its heels. You are right that Canada will hurt ten times more than the US. If the US really applies pressure, Canada might raise the white flag of defeat and drop its agricultural tariffs under pressure. I would favour Canada to voluntarily and willingly drop those tariffs over time through gentle persuasion and not through national humiliation on the world stage.

 

Even if Trump succeeds in finally forcing Canada to open up its agricultural market, he will also galvanize Canadian voters to elect more anti-US politicians for decades to come. He might win on the trade front, but then future Canadian governments might start to try not only to diversify Canada's trade but also to distance Canada slowly and gradually from the US militarily. It might not mean an immediate end to NATO, but it could mean very hard feelings among NATO partners for years to come. This could affect NATO's reliability and effectiveness.

Also, other countries would take note of Canada's humiliating defeat in the trade war on the world stage. Basic psychology suggests that that could raise other countries' willingness to build closer economic ties with Canada and would they too might then want to gradually shift trade away from the US too. In other words, even if the US wins this trade war, other countries including Canada will react slowly and subtly to try to prevent the same from happening to them again. Trump would win the initial battle, but future presidents for the next few decades will need to work to rebuild trust. You don't humiliate another country on the world stage and not expect a negative reaction over the long term. National humiliation does not heal over night.

We didn't want it to come to this, we don't want to embarrass anyone or create any hard feelings, we even feel bad about it, we gave everyone an extended deadline but everyone seems to want to drag their feet. Your PM should have agreed to the trade deals being propose well before trump came to office. But enough of what could have have been. Fact of the matter is this, we need those trade deals to be finalize as soon as possible. When a more efficient economy is establish people will see the long term benefit it brings and realize that the hard choice was the right choice. Those who criticize america and what it stands for will continue to do so, but remember our people have more in common than differences. So despite your initial objection to the medicine being taken its still has to be done. 

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4 minutes ago, paxrom said:

We didn't want it to come to this, we don't want to embarrass anyone or create any hard feelings, we even feel bad about it, we gave everyone an extended deadline but everyone seems to want to drag their feet. Your PM should have agreed to the trade deals being propose well before trump came to office. But enough of what could have have been. Fact of the matter is this, we need those trade deals to be finalize as soon as possible. When a more efficient economy is establish people will see the long term benefit it brings and realize that the hard choice was the right choice. Those who criticize america and what it stands for will continue to do so, but remember our people have more in common than differences. So despite your initial objection to the medicine being taken its still has to be done. 

I agree with the economics of what you're saying. Canada's protectionism hurts Canadian consumers more than it hurts anyone else. In fact, one part of me would love to see Trump apply so much pressure on Canada as to destroy Canada's agricultural cartel. But that's only on the economic front.

 

On the psychological front, Trump will feed anti-US sentiment for at least a few decades until it heels. In the mean time, maybe even for the next few decades, the US could find itself in a far more ineffective NATO as a result of hard feelings. For at least the next few decades, the US might find other countries more willing to play hard ball with it in trade negotiations while being more willing to lower barriers between each other. This could isolate the US relatively speaking for the next few decades. Trump does not understand human psychology. He does not understand how a person or a nation reacts to public humiliation. People and nations will react to save face, and not always in a healthy manner.

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I'll take a more basic example. Imagine a high-school bully beating up a weaker kid in the school yard. He might be stronger and might win the fight. But other kids in the yard will notice it, fear him, and so distance themselves from him and interact with one another instead. Trump promoting fear of the US does not help the US in the long run. Maybe in the short term, but not in the long term.

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