NAFTA negotiations.

[bush_cheney2004]

1 hour ago, Zeitgeist said:

Any moves that stem trade where trade flows are balanced are bad moves. 

 

But trade flows are not balanced for the United States with many other nations, including NAFTA partner Mexico.   The political context for the current U.S. administration are just as valid as Trudeau's efforts to preserve the status quo advantages for Canada (tariffs, non-tariff barriers, IP theft, dumping, transshipments, duty limits, etc.).    Canada is impacted historically for softwood lumber and because NAFTA is one piece of the Trump administration's larger narrative of getting more balanced trade flows, even if it means bi-lateral deals.

Trudeau and Nieto did not lead on re-negotiating a tired/obsolete NAFTA...Trump did.

[Argus]

On 8/22/2018 at 11:28 AM, paxamericana said:

Yes which is why canada and many other countries got slapped with a steel and alum tariff, with the exception of australia and Brasil. We're definitely screening our border alright, the question is does canada want to screen its own border to get tariff removed.... 

You seem to be forgetting once again that the US enjoys a trade surplus with Canada in steel...

Edited August 27, 2018 by Argus

[Argus]

So the US has apparently reached agreement with Mexico in NAFTA negotiations. The big blowhole then threatened Canada with auto tariffs - threatening thousands if not tens of thousands of American jobs in a determined push to get a couple of hundred dairy farmers a little more work. 

The interesting aspect of this isn't what an economic illiterate like Trump has to say, though, but whether Trudeau will find himself with a Mexican knife in the back. Remember that this whole thing about NAFTA was aimed at Mexico since the US enjoys a surplus in trade and services with Canada. The US made that clear some time ago in trying to get an agreement with Canada so it could then deal with its real target - Mexico. Trudeau refused, citing our ancient bonds of brotherhood and longstanding alliance with Mexico (kidding. We have none). We and Mexico would stand together, he said. Well, the Mexicans have now reached a separate agreement so if that leaves us standing in the cold Trudeau is going to have a huge mass of egg on his shiny face.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/trump-touts-trade-deal-with-mexico-threatens-new-tariffs-on-canadian-cars-1.4069471

[bush_cheney2004]

38 minutes ago, Argus said:

You seem to be forgetting once again that the US enjoys a trade surplus with Canada in steel...

 

Still doesn't mean that Trump should not go after Canadian tariffs, non-tariff barriers, IP theft, dumping, and transshipments.   Balanced trade does not mean Canada's anti-trade practices should be tolerated any longer.

[paxamericana]

2 hours ago, Argus said:

You seem to be forgetting once again that the US enjoys a trade surplus with Canada in steel...

Fact of the matter is this, Canada has been left out to dry in the sun. The fact that they keep insisting on NAFTA as a three way deal shows the level of desperation. We're not the one desparate to trade with Canadians.

[Argus]

38 minutes ago, paxamericana said:

Fact of the matter is this, Canada has been left out to dry in the sun. The fact that they keep insisting on NAFTA as a three way deal shows the level of desperation. We're not the one desparate to trade with Canadians.

What has that got to do with my statement? It seems like just more cock waving, like that moron BC does to make his miserable life feel meaningful. Are you that desperate, too?

[bush_cheney2004]

Canada:  "But our tariffs, non-tariff barriers, dumping, transshipments, and IP theft cheating are just a small part of CanAm trade.   Can't America just ignore our cheating ? "

Trump:   No.

[bush_cheney2004]

Mexico and USA getting the deal done....Canada still playing with its "feminist agenda" and virtue signaling.   Trudeau and Freeland are incompetent on trade.

 

 

 

[Zeitgeist]

You keep on talking about IP theft and dumping as though these are real things that Canada does.  It doesn't.  If there's a glut of steel that the Chinese are trying to get into the U.S., it's the Chinese doing this.  We don't have tariffs on Chinese steel and the U.S. never sent us a memo or had a conversation with our Foreign Affairs and Trade people to say, "Guys, this is our plan, to impose tariffs on China, will you join us in this, so that we present a unified front and have an easier time settling our own trade relationship?"  Let's suppose for a moment that Canada has a few areas to seriously consider opening up, such as dairy.  I caution you that the next question Canadian negotiators, and in fact negotiators from Europe and the rest of the world, are going to ask the U.S. is, "Are you going to remove all your farm subsidies?"  As long as the answer is something like "No", "not much", or "maybe later", the U.S. has no business calling the kettle black on government support of agriculture.  There needs to be an honest accounting of government supports on both sides.  If a country simply feels the protection of a particular sector or group is too important to expose, that has to be part of the conversation.

Also, I don't see the value in turning this into a question of who is impacted more in a reduction of trade between the two countries, Canada or the U.S..  We all know that both countries will see roughly the same number of workers and businesses impacted on both sides of the border.  If you're in a state or industry in the U.S. that relies heavily on trade with Canada, you have as much reason to be concerned as Canadian companies that sell into the U.S.  Both countries need a solid trade deal.  Let's start being constructive about this.

Edited August 28, 2018 by Zeitgeist

[bush_cheney2004]

58 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

You keep on talking about IP theft and dumping as though these are real things that Canada does.  It doesn't. 

 

Yes it does....Canada is weak on IP theft for lots of Hollywood film and television content produced in the United States or in other nations by American studios.  It is considered a Charter Right to steal and watch American "content" for free.   CRTC carriage rules openly encourage stealing content from broadcasters in American cities from all time zones without compensation, and ruled against simsub for Super Bowl® broadcasts.  Counterfeit products (e.g. from China) that routinely violate U.S. copyright are exported from Canada into the United States.

Canada also dumps wood and wood pulp products into the U.S. market (e.g. newsprint), and fake pharma, just like China.   Just because Canada likes to chop down every tree on public land (low stumpage fees), doesn't mean the U.S. has to import it.

 

Quote

 Let's suppose for a moment that Canada has a few areas to seriously consider opening up, such as dairy.  I caution you that the next question Canadian negotiators, and in fact negotiators from Europe and the rest of the world, are going to ask the U.S. is, "Are you going to remove all your farm subsidies?"

 

Only commensurate with the value of Canadian tariff and non-tariff barriers, not the entire U.S. ag industry.   Canada's market is not the same size as America's, but Canada thinks it should have equal access ???

Quote

  If a country simply feels the protection of a particular sector or group is too important to expose, that has to be part of the conversation.

 

That's fine, but be prepared to pay the price (tariffs).   U.S. banking and telcom providers are not allowed in Canada, but there are Canadian bank branch offices in my city right now.

 

Quote

Also, I don't see the value in turning this into a question of who is impacted more in a reduction of trade between the two countries, Canada or the U.S..  We all know that both countries will see roughly the same number of workers and businesses impacted on both sides of the border.  If you're in a state or industry in the U.S. that relies heavily on trade with Canada, you have as much reason to be concerned as Canadian companies that sell into the U.S.  Both countries need a solid trade deal.  Let's start being constructive

 

This is not the make nice phase of negotiations...there is no state that "relies heavily" on export trade with Canada compared to the province of Ontario (50% to USA).   Trump has leverage, and he damn well intends to use it.   Once the dust settles it will be time for make nice.  

Frankly, I would like to see all American owned automakers out of Canada for good because it is the highest area for production costs.   This already started in Ontario long before Trump came along, and those jobs are not coming back.

Edited August 28, 2018 by bush_cheney2004

[bush_cheney2004]

Chrystia Freeland has ended her trip to Europe early to sprint back to Washington D.C. for a NAFTA rescue mission, now that Mexico has thrown Canada under the bus.

Trudeau called Trump of course, to ask "What about Canada ?"

Trump probably replied, "What about Canada ?"

 

 

[Zeitgeist]

2 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

Yes it does....Canada is weak on IP theft for lots of Hollywood film and television content produced in the United States or in other nations by American studios.  It is considered a Charter Right to steal and watch American "content" for free.   CRTC carriage rules openly encourage stealing content from broadcasters in American cities from all time zones without compensation, and ruled against simsub for Super Bowl® broadcasts.  Counterfeit products (e.g. from China) that routinely violate U.S. copyright are exported from Canada into the United States.

Canada also dumps wood and wood pulp products into the U.S. market (e.g. newsprint), and fake pharma, just like China.   Just because Canada likes to chop down every tree on public land (low stumpage fees), doesn't mean the U.S. has to import it.

 

 

Only commensurate with the value of Canadian tariff and non-tariff barriers, not the entire U.S. ag industry.   Canada's market is not the same size as America's, but Canada thinks it should have equal access ???

 

That's fine, but be prepared to pay the price (tariffs).   U.S. banking and telcom providers are not allowed in Canada, but there are Canadian bank branch offices in my city right now.

 

 

This is not the make nice phase of negotiations...there is no state that "relies heavily" on export trade with Canada compared to the province of Ontario (50% to USA).   Trump has leverage, and he damn well intends to use it.   Once the dust settles it will be time for make nice.  

Frankly, I would like to see all American owned automakers out of Canada for good because it is the highest area for production costs.   This already started in Ontario long before Trump came along, and those jobs are not coming back.

Most of what you said is bullshit.  In Canada companies buy rights to fell trees. Stumpage fees are a U.S. concoction.  It’s like a fake intermediary taking a cut of the price and raising the price for consumers, as in the Japanese distribution network.  

Canadian and American radio and television have broadcasted freely into the other’s territory from the start.  Good luck trying to stop that.  You want more barriers to US content in Canada?  The CanCon fascists will love you for it.

Auto production is cheaper in some ways, more expensive in other ways in Canada. Stop insulting people’s intelligence.  Our health costs are lower for companies, as is our dollar.  Some other inputs are more expensive.  

As for what you’re saying about telecom, I don’t see an issue with letting in more competition.  I’ve never understood why Rogers and Bell deserve to be protected.  The limits to banking relate to our much wiser and stricter banking regulations.  Remember your big U.S. commie bailout of the banks?

[bush_cheney2004]

7 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

Most of what you said is bullshit.  In Canada companies buy rights to fell trees. Stumpage fees are a U.S. concoction.  It’s like a fake intermediary taking a cut of the price and raising the price for consumers, as in the Japanese distribution network. 

 

May be "bullshit" to you, but Trump's newsprint tariffs say otherwise.   Dump that crap somewhere else.

 

Quote

Canadian and American radio and television have broadcasted freely into the other’s territory from the start.  Good luck trying to stop that.  You want more barriers to US content in Canada?  The CanCon fascists will love you for it.

 

CanCon is a perfect example of another Canadian non-tariff barrier to protect "Canadian culture" (because Canadian programming sucks so bad).   Like I said, stealing U.S. content is a Charter Right, going back to the first cable cheater boxes and satellite receivers.   Your response confirms this.

 

Quote

Auto production is cheaper in some ways, more expensive in other ways in Canada. Stop insulting people’s intelligence.  Our health costs are lower for companies, as is our dollar.  Some other inputs are more expensive. 

 

Canada is now highest cost producer, regardless of such excuses.   Ontario has lost much automotive production already, and will lose lots more....Trump or no Trump.

 

Quote

As for what you’re saying about telecom, I don’t see an issue with letting in more competition.  I’ve never understood why Rogers and Bell deserve to be protected.  The limits to banking relate to our much wiser and stricter banking regulations.  Remember your big U.S. commie bailout of the banks?

 

Canada had bailouts too....but thank you for admitting to another non-tariff trade barrier.    Because...Canada is so "special", right ?

 

 

 

 

[Zeitgeist]

Well Canada exports a lot of media.  I agree that CanCon protection isn’t as necessary as it used to be, but that’s because Canadian content now really sells itself. Most of my kids’ favourite music happens to be Canadian, because they like it and it’s successful.  

With regard to bank bailouts, I’m not saying they weren’t necessary.  I’m saying don’t pretend that your government doesn’t prop up the economy.  We’ve always known government has do do some of this, yet the one percenter Republicans talk up the free market until of course their own seven figure salaries are threatened, as in 2008.  Then government is encouraged to step in. 

[bush_cheney2004]

3 hours ago, Zeitgeist said:

Well Canada exports a lot of media.  I agree that CanCon protection isn’t as necessary as it used to be, but that’s because Canadian content now really sells itself. Most of my kids’ favourite music happens to be Canadian, because they like it and it’s successful. 

 

The merits of CanCon isn't the issue....it is just another example of Canada's non-tariff barriers enforced by government.

 

Quote

With regard to bank bailouts, I’m not saying they weren’t necessary.  I’m saying don’t pretend that your government doesn’t prop up the economy.  We’ve always known government has do do some of this, yet the one percenter Republicans talk up the free market until of course their own seven figure salaries are threatened, as in 2008.  Then government is encouraged to step in. 

 

There is no "free market'...even one percenter Liberals in Canada know this, and they really crave American capital investment as national policy (FDI).

[Zeitgeist]

Just now, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

The merits of CanCon isn't the issue....it is just another example of Canada's non-tariff barriers enforced by government.

 

 

There is no "free market'...even one percenter Liberals in Canada know this, and they really crave American capital investment as national policy (FDI).

Canadian attitudes towards FDI are mixed.  Conservatives generally like it, the left not so much.  They would rather see government ownership of key resources a la Norway.  

[bush_cheney2004]

3 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

Canadian attitudes towards FDI are mixed.  Conservatives generally like it, the left not so much.  They would rather see government ownership of key resources a la Norway.  

 

Attracting FDI has been a cornerstone policy for many Canadian governments regardless of party (Investment Canada Act).   Mulroney's support for FTA/NAFTA is directly related to FDI, and the "left" has now fully embraced NAFTA after initially opposing it (e.g. union automotive jobs, defense contracts at U.S. subsidiaries like General Dynamics Land Systems).

[bush_cheney2004]

Remarkable...even Canadian news media has turned on the epic Trudeau/Freeland NAFTA negotiation failure.   Apparently they spent more time attacking Trump than watching what Mexico and the USA were doing to strike a deal.     Canadian leadership was clueless....and now is "backed into a corner":

 

Quote

Essentially it has no choice. Ottawa is backed into a corner. It can’t afford to see NAFTA collapse while Washington and Mexico work to ratify a bilateral package, which is extremely difficult given U.S. trade laws. Such an outcome would constitute one of the biggest negotiating failures in Canadian history. Another predicament is the timing. Given complications arising with a new Mexican government taking office Dec. 1, a deal has to be made quickly.

The situation raises all kinds of fears that the Trudeau government will cave on on any number of U.S. demands to avoid disaster. While it has won plaudits for its handling of the manic Trump administration, the realty is that it has little to show for it. Trade negotiations started a year ago. There’s been little progress. Steel and aluminum tariffs have been levied. The Trudeau-Trump relationship has gone downhill. There’s the threat of auto tariffs.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-us-mexico-double-cross-puts-canada-on-the-defensive/

 

 

[paxamericana]

3 hours ago, Zeitgeist said:

Canadian attitudes towards FDI are mixed.  Conservatives generally like it, the left not so much.  They would rather see government ownership of key resources a la Norway.  

As we've been telling you before, Canada has no real leverage over US interest when it comes to trade. It would have been a wiser decision to negotiate like mexico before the midterms. Afterwards you won't find as much of an incentive for Trump to negotiate as he would no longer need voter approval on trade. Look at the stock market reaction after the preliminary deal with mexico was announced. The majority of Americans who are tied up in wal-street want to see a quick resolution to these trade dispute. This was the main impetus of why trump wanted to  conclude trade negotiation BEFORE the midterms. Should have taken the free-trade deal during the G7,  Canada will have but two choice  after the midterms, to sit out of NAFTA and see the collapse of the Canadian economy or wait until a new administration to come into power and negotiate for the scraps at the NAFTA table. Either way,  its going to be painful for everyday Canadians. Should have done away with supply management long ago Canada...

Edited August 28, 2018 by paxamericana

[Argus]

9 minutes ago, paxamericana said:

As we've been telling you before, Canada has no real leverage over US interest when it comes to trade. It would have been a wiser decision to negotiate like mexico before the midterms. Afterwards you won't find as much of an incentive for Trump to negotiate as he would no longer need voter approval on trade.

No. Instead he'd need the approval of a likely Democratic controlled congress. 

[bush_cheney2004]

So yet again, Canada's hopes lie with what the Americans will do in the U.S. mid-term elections after Trudeau & Freeland have fumbled NAFTA so badly.

Mexico figured it out...Canada didn't.

 

[Zeitgeist]

The wisest move is to wait until Trump’s bandits are either voted out or marched off to prison before proceeding any further with negotiations.  Trudeau will strike a much better chord with Democrats.  Remember the bromance with Obama?  I’m not a Trudeau fan, but Trump represents a darker vision for humanity.  There will be no “collapse” of the Canadian economy.  Stop with the fear mongering drama.  Trump hasn’t stopped trade with Canada.  He’s made it more costly for businesses and consumers in both countries, and that truth is quickly becoming evident.  The U.S. has made a mess of trade with many longstanding partners.  They’ll win though right?  No country would ever put counter-tariffs on the U.S..

Edited August 28, 2018 by Zeitgeist

[paxamericana]

5 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

The wisest move is to wait until Trump’s bandits are either voted out or marched off to prison before proceeding any further with negotiations.  Trudeau will strike a much better chord with Democrats.  Remember the bromance with Obama?  I’m not a Trudeau fan, but Trump represents a darker vision for humanity. 

HA! That's a good one. Let me put on my canada hat on for once. What if the democrats fail again and again in 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 how would that make you "feel" . What would you do? Wait america out?

Edited August 28, 2018 by paxamericana

[Zeitgeist]

3 minutes ago, paxamericana said:

HA! That's a good one. Let me put on my canada hat on for once. What if the democrats fail again and again in 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 how would that make you "feel" . What would you do? Wait america out?

Sure why not?  We might get a conservative government that plays better with US conservatives anyway. 

Edited August 28, 2018 by Zeitgeist

[paxamericana]

55 minutes ago, Argus said:

No. Instead he'd need the approval of a likely Democratic controlled congress. 

What? Last I checked, congress would still need executive power to enact any international treaty.  Congress can't negotiate or start treaties only ratify/adopt.  Or are you suggesting to wait trump out and let NAFTA along with the Canadian economy collapse. 

"[The President] shall have Power, by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties, provided two thirds of the Senators present concur..."

Edited August 28, 2018 by paxamericana