"No Schedule" on Cannabis Legalization

overthere · May 30, 2016

Several significant - yet strangely unnamed - ways.

I've listed them all several times. In this thread. Read it or don't, I don't care.

The money just is not there for the govt in the regulated and taxed weed market. They cannot possibly expect to add several layers of tax, produce poor quality product, and expect to take anything away from a long established production, distribution and sales systems selling top quality product at reasonable prices. There is no incentive whatsoever for consumers to switch. It is nothing at all like alcohol sales. Even the most ignorant partisans can see that. Or maybe not. Shrug.

But Trudeau will bail out hard on this one, he has to or the poltical capital costs will be extreme.

?Impact · May 30, 2016

The money just is not there for the govt in the regulated and taxed weed market.

I think the only viable estimate would be to extrapolate from other jurisdictions. Colorado was $135 million in tax revenue last year, assuming it scales with population that would put Canada as a whole at about $890 million.

Boges · May 30, 2016

I think the only viable estimate would be to extrapolate from other jurisdictions. Colorado was $135 million in tax revenue last year, assuming it scales with population that would put Canada as a whole at about $890 million.

NO! the Colorado model will be completely different than the Canadian one. In the US they treat adults like adults and allow an open market people can actually sell the product in a private business. In Canada we'll see government owned dispensaries that will only utilize government sanctioned producers. Also the tax rate will likely but MUCH MUCH higher.

The incentive to move off of a tax-free version of the product is a lot less appealing unless cops start cracking heads like they did in Toronto last week.

Edited May 30, 2016 by Boges

Smallc · May 31, 2016

Start a new thread for me, will ya?

Review in the where have you travelled thread.

Boges · July 5, 2016

CALLED IT!!!

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/07/04/ottawa-might-try-to-prohibit-homegrown-pot.html

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government warns legalized recreational marijuana will be a strictly controlled substance — so much so that even homegrown weed may be prohibited.

Federal Health Minister Jane Philpott said the government is “taking a public health approach to the matter of the legalization and regulation of marijuana,” treating it like tobacco.

But in Ontario — despite strong anti-smoking laws — growing tobacco for personal consumption is allowed.

That raises questions about the efficacy of banning Canadians from cultivating marijuana at home for recreational use once it is legalized next year.

Massive enforcement effort will be required to ensure people don't grow their own pot. The government just wants people to use their highly taxed cannabis.

And I read this yesterday. About the Colorado model everyone holds up as a beacon of light.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/to-better-understand-pot-ottawa-should-look-to-colorado/article30716472/

Selling pot in stores and taxing it heavily hasn’t killed the black market – 79 per cent of respondents acquired their dope via non-legal means, and about one in 10 scored from someone with a medical marijuana licence.

Only one in ten people pay taxes for the weed they consume in a state where it's legal.

And their taxation level is much lower than anything Canada will propose.

This will be such a shit show.

Smoke · July 5, 2016

I think the only viable estimate would be to extrapolate from other jurisdictions. Colorado was $135 million in tax revenue last year, assuming it scales with population that would put Canada as a whole at about $890 million.

Wow a whole $890M! And how much will it cost to legalize and maintain the regulations that will come with it. Don't forget the poorly-thought-out gun registry cost over $2B (that we know about).

?Impact · July 5, 2016

Wow a whole $890M! And how much will it cost to legalize and maintain the regulations that will come with it. Don't forget the poorly-thought-out gun registry cost over $2B (that we know about).

Ah yes, the again repeated lie about the LGR. It never cost $2 billion, that was a lie spread by the liar Vic Towes who should be in jail and not at the bench. You don't take a budget for an entire department over 15 years, inflate it up by a billion or so, and then say that is what it cost to do one task. That is a lie, pure and simple.

Ok, so it cost whatever to legalize and maintain the regulations. What do you think it costs to criminalize and maintain the current regulations? I suggest it is significantly more by at least an order of magnitude, but regardless of whatever estimate you come up with the current system has to cost more.

Boges · July 5, 2016

Ok, so it cost whatever to legalize and maintain the regulations. What do you think it costs to criminalize and maintain the current regulations? I suggest it is significantly more by at least an order of magnitude, but regardless of whatever estimate you come up with the current system has to cost more.

Not if those laws are rarely enforced, or decriminalized. Which is basically what we have now.

I can see police services actually ramping up enforcement of current cannabis laws because they'll still be on the books under a legalized system as the only way one will be able to purchase the drug is from a government owned dispensary at a hugely inflated price due to taxation and to continue the social responsibility lie.

?Impact · July 5, 2016

I can see police services actually ramping up enforcement of current cannabis laws because they'll still be on the books under a legalized system as the only way one will be able to purchase the drug is from a government owned dispensary at a hugely inflated price due to taxation and to continue the social responsibility lie.

You are correct that the government does have the opportunity to screw up things and make it worse. They also have the opportunity to make things far better. The point is the current situation is so bad that they would have to be bumbling idiots to make it worse. The rest is all speculation about the future, tempered with partisan cheerleading.

Edited July 5, 2016 by ?Impact

Boges · July 5, 2016

You are correct that the government does have the opportunity to screw up things and make it worse. They also have the opportunity to make things far better. The point is the current situation is so bad that they would have to be bumbling idiots to make it worse. The rest is all speculation about the future, tempered with partisan cheerleading.

Well we know a legalized system is inevitable, but if it resembles the way we deal with alcohol and tobacco it won't work. Did you not see my posts where I cite a report that says almost 80% of people in Colorado admit to still use the black market.

And we get news today that the Feds plan to completely outlaw personal growing. How many law-breakers does that make, considering how many people are doing that currently and it's just not worth the time for police to prosecute? But once they start competing with the government, they'll have motivation to enforce those laws again.

Edited July 5, 2016 by Boges

Smallc · July 5, 2016

Well we know a legalized system is inevitable, but if it resembles the way we deal with alcohol and tobacco it won't work

It works for them pretty well.

Boges · July 5, 2016

It works for them pretty well.

Because there isn't much of a black market there already. AND there is a pretty vibrant black market tobacco market.

We've been through this before.

If the Feds ban growing for personal use, their laws will largely be ignored.

Edited July 5, 2016 by Boges

Smallc · July 5, 2016

Because there isn't much of a black market there already. AND there is a pretty vibrant black market tobacco market..

That's only because of indigenous tax status. It's still a small piece of the market, especially outside of Ontario. There is almost no black market for alcohol.

If the Feds ban growing for personal use, their laws will largely be ignored.

The idea that most people will still go to their dealer when they can just get it in the store is ridiculous.

Boges · July 5, 2016

The idea that most people will still go to their dealer when they can just get it in the store is ridiculous.

Not if it's a lot cheaper.

I'd buy black market Maker's Mark if it was cheaper. Problem is, it takes 3 years, minimum to make that and you need a still and a warehouse full of oak barrels.

Edited July 5, 2016 by Boges

Smallc · July 5, 2016

Not if it's a lot cheaper.

I'd buy black market Maker's Mark if it was cheaper.

What makes you think it will be significantly cheaper? Right now, it has the built in cost of being illegal.

As I said, it's only because of Indigenous tax status that a far lower price exists for tobacco.

Edited July 5, 2016 by Smallc

Boges · July 5, 2016

What makes you think it will be significantly cheaper? Right now, it has the built in cost of being illegal.

As I said, it's only because of Indigenous tax status that a far lower price exists for tobacco.

Well taxes, that's what. Plus the idea they'll have to have unionized government employees with generous pensions that will be selling it.

It'll be hilarious when people can't buy weed on a Sunday morning because of social responsibility.

Edited July 5, 2016 by Boges

Big Guy · July 5, 2016

It may be cheaper from a dealer but why would you trust that what an illegal "dealer" sells you and then ingest it?

Boges · July 5, 2016

It may be cheaper from a dealer but why would you trust that what an illegal "dealer" sells you and then ingest it?

Where do you think people get it from now? People talk about factory farming in regards to food and how it's bad for you. How do you think government sanctioned pot will be produced?

We had a dog and pony show in Toronto recently where cops shut down a bunch of pot dispensaries because the only way to get medical pot is through the mail from only 27 places across the country.

I wonder what the pending Canada Post lockout will do to that?

Edited July 5, 2016 by Boges

Smallc · July 5, 2016

Well taxes, that's what. Plus the idea they'll have to have unionized government employees with generous pensions that will be selling it.

It'll be hilarious when people can't buy weed on a Sunday morning because of social responsibility.

That will really be up to each province to implement - but right now alcohol is sold the same way you're talking about in many places, and there's almost no black market.

Smallc · July 5, 2016

Where do you think people get it from now?

I'm going to assume you know little about getting from a dealer. They're unreliable, and often shady people. Sometimes it's really easy to get, sometimes not. Legalization will drive most of them out of business, and make it even harder to get. Most importantly, it'll take money from organized crime.

We had a dog and pony show in Toronto recently where cops shut down a bunch of pot dispensaries because the only way to get medical pot is through the mail from only 27 places across the country.

I wonder what the pending Canada Post lockout will do to that?

Apparently, they're already switching to other methods.

Boges · July 5, 2016

That will really be up to each province to implement - but right now alcohol is sold the same way you're talking about in many places, and there's almost no black market.

Yeah and it's shitty. Again you can make your own wine or beer but it's not good. You currently have a system where people get pot the way they get it duty free. And you suddenly tell people they can't do that anymore. They'll have to go to an LCBO and pay lots more. And you expect people to just comply like sheep. I guess it's the Canadian way.

It takes a lot more effort to produce quality alcohol than pot. Especially spirits, which you can't produce in your own home.

Boges · July 5, 2016

I'm going to assume you know little about getting from a dealer. They're unreliable, and often shady people. Sometimes it's really easy to get, sometimes not. Legalization will drive most of them out of business, and make it even harder to get. Most importantly, it'll take money from organized crime.

Or you just know a guy that grows it himself and get him to hook you up.

You conveniently ignore the story I cited this morning saying that many people in Colorado still use the black market. But not in Canada, we'll do what we're told.

Smallc · July 5, 2016

Yeah and it's shitty.

What makes you think home grown pot is any better? You'd have to a horticulturalist to know what you were doing.

Big Guy · July 5, 2016

I would and will pay more for marijuana which is controlled by government than from illegal dealers. In my area, we still have a major problem with illegal drugs. The same folks who are selling marijuana are also selling Morphine, Fentanyl, Oxycodone and Codeine. Not sure I would trust them with what I intend to put into my body. BTW - My interest and need is in pain control and using the THC in marijuana for relief without the side effects of other pain medication.

Edited July 5, 2016 by Big Guy

Boges · July 5, 2016

What makes you think home grown pot is any better? You'd have to a horticulturalist to know what you were doing.

I'm not talking quality. I'm talking price, service, convenience, hours and wholesale nanny statism.

That's a different story that can be discussed in my LCBO thread in the Provincial forum. But I'm sure people who are avid weed smokers won't be thrilled to have to only deal with an organization like the LCBO. Which Premiere Kathleen Wynne has already hinted at.

Edited July 5, 2016 by Boges