What happens if the power goes off?

[Derek 2.0]

Okay, but how is that relevant? The cost to mitigate against EMPs is far, far lower.

What is the cost?

The cost is minimal compared to the cost of not doing so if something happens. A couple of billion would probably do it. The Liberals will skim that much off in graft in just a year or two.

Again, where do you get a couple of billion as cost? The US DoD paid a couple of billion to upgrade their EMP protected E-4 fleet a decade ago......a fleet of four aircraft........and you want to upgrade the entire power grid of North America for 2 billion?

[Argus]

What is the cost?

Again, where do you get a couple of billion as cost? The US DoD paid a couple of billion to upgrade their EMP protected E-4 fleet a decade ago......a fleet of four aircraft........and you want to upgrade the entire power grid of North America for 2 billion?

Those are the figures I've seen on various sites for upgrading the US power grid. Canada's would be cheaper.

The Congressional EMP Commission estimated in 2008 it would cost $2 billion to harden the grid’s critical nodes (i.e., roughly 2,000 large and medium-sized transformers and their associated SCADA systems, etc.) Modest when compared with the unimaginably high costs associated with trying to remediate after an EMP event. Yet, it has been an excuse for inaction.

http://securethegrid.com/emp-technologys-worst-nightmare/

Edited February 1, 2016 by Argus

[Derek 2.0]

Those are the figures I've seen on various sites for upgrading the US power grid. Canada's would be cheaper.

Ahh no.........Change trillion(s) with billion and you might be closer....here is the actual Commission report to help better understand the scope of actually protecting against an EMP attack (far better that blogs, Alex Jones and the Sun).....far more costly and complex, balanced with the fact that very few nations would have the ability to actually conduct such an attack, and those that could, would be on the receiving end of the US nuclear triad, and the ending of their culture and civilization inside an hour.

[bush_cheney2004]

EMP is a lesser included event from a much larger conflagration. It's like worrying about having clean underwear for a hospital emergency room visit.

[Argus]

Ahh no.........Change trillion(s) with billion and you might be closer....here is the actual Commission report to help better understand the scope of actually protecting against an EMP attack (far better that blogs, Alex Jones and the Sun)...

Your cite doesn't list a cost, but it does say it's not feasible to protect everything. I certainly acknowledge that, but that doesn't mean you can't protect the most critical elements. And it also says the following:

On the other hand, a geographically widespread blackout that involves physical damage to thousands of components may produce a persistent outage that would far exceed historical experience, with potentially catastrophic effect. Simulation work sponsored by the Commission at the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) has suggested that, after a few days, what little production that does take place would be offsetby accumulating loss of perishables, collapse of businesses, loss of the financial systems and dislocation of the work force. The consequences of lack of food, heat (or air conditioning), water, waste disposal, medical, police, fire fighting support, and effective civil authority would threaten society itself.

Of course, this presumes you actually give a damn about society collapsing, and I often get the impression you would actually prefer it to. After all, you've got your collection of guns and ammo and your six year food supply. How great it would be to be free of the 'dem guberment' and on your own, right?

As to your sneering at the Sun. The same story, or variations of it have appeared in everything from he Wall Street Journal to National Geographic, and the last cite I posted listed everyone from the former head and chief science adviser to the EMP commission you are citing to a former director of the CIA and a former NATO supreme commander.

..far more costly and complex, balanced with the fact that very few nations would have the ability to actually conduct such an attack, and those that could, would be on the receiving end of the US nuclear triad, and the ending of their culture and civilization inside an hour.

Few nations? We'll soon have private corporations capable of doing as much. It's not that complicated. Not to mention that the chance of a widespread EMP event from the sun is hardly negligible. We almost had one a couple of years ago.

Edited February 1, 2016 by Argus

[Argus]

EMP is a lesser included event from a much larger conflagration. It's like worrying about having clean underwear for a hospital emergency room visit.

EMP doesn't have to come from war. It could also come from a solar event. According to NASA the odds of being hit by a massive EMP from the sun is about 12% in the next 10 years. Of course, the odds rise the further forward you go.

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/23jul_superstorm/

Edited February 1, 2016 by Argus

[Derek 2.0]

Your cite doesn't list a cost, but it does say it's not feasible to protect everything. I certainly acknowledge that, but that doesn't mean you can't protect the most critical elements. And it also says the following:

On the other hand, a geographically widespread blackout that involves physical damage to thousands of components may produce a persistent outage that would far exceed historical experience, with potentially catastrophic effect. Simulation work sponsored by the Commission at the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) has suggested that, after a few days, what little production that does take place would be offsetby accumulating loss of perishables, collapse of businesses, loss of the financial systems and dislocation of the work force. The consequences of lack of food, heat (or air conditioning), water, waste disposal, medical, police, fire fighting support, and effective civil authority would threaten society itself.

There is no need to spend huge sums of money guarding against a remote (at best) threat.

The calculus is simple: If a nation state launches a nuclear attack on the United States, the United States will respond with their own nuclear weapons. If a nation State explodes a nuclear device several hundred KMs above the United States, the United States will respond with nuclear weapons. Deterrence has worked for over 60 years.

Of course, this presumes you actually give a damn about society collapsing, and I often get the impression you would actually prefer it to. After all, you've got your collection of guns and ammo and your six year food supply. How great it would be to be free of the 'dem guberment' and on your own, right?

Of course I do, but then I don't succumb to very remote threats and suggest we as nations states spend a fortune to guard against it, when there is already a significant deterrent in place.

As to your sneering at the Sun. The same story, or variations of it have appeared in everything from he Wall Street Journal to National Geographic, and the last cite I posted listed everyone from the former head and chief science adviser to the EMP commission you are citing to a former director of the CIA and a former NATO supreme commander.

Sure, and I cited the actual Commissions report.........your point?

Few nations? We'll soon have private corporations capable of doing as much. It's not that complicated. Not to mention that the chance of a widespread EMP event from the sun is hardly negligible. We almost had one a couple of years ago.

Yes few nations, as in three. The United States, Russia and probably the Chinese to a limited degree.......let me know when "private corporations" develop their own thermonuclear devices..........If we were to receive a geomagnetic storm (solar flare) of a magnitude of a NEMP over North America, lack of electricity will be the least of our worries.

[Derek 2.0]

EMP doesn't have to come from war. It could also come from a solar event. According to NASA the odds of being hit by a massive EMP from the sun is about 12% in the next 10 years. Of course, the odds rise the further forward you go.

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/23jul_superstorm/

That is subjective.......if the Sun releases a "massive EMP", in the region of over 50 MeV+ ( the amount of energy needed to start screwing things up on Earth) the accompanying radiation will be of far more concern........when you're dying of radiation sickness, not been able to play on your smartphone will be the least of your worries.

[ReeferMadness]

I have not been able to find anything which indicates any portion of the Canadian government or the provinces is even aware of the possibility of the threat, much less has even considered doing anything about it.

This is not the first global threat, it won't be the last and it's not even close to being the worst. Nuclear weapons, biological weapons, climate alteration, cyber threats, all of these and more are or are becoming accessible to small, unstable states. As time goes on and technology improves, it becomes easier and cheaper to cause massive casualties and economic damage. You think a suitcase nuke is scary? Wait for the day when it's feasible to carry a suitcase anti-matter bomb. One kilogram of anti-matter would pack the equivalent power of a 43 megaton nuclear warhead. It isn't feasible today but it's only a matter of time.

The bottom line is that focusing solely on military measures and counter-measures ensures that sooner or later, things are going to end badly. In the wake of WWII and the invention of the atomic bomb, there was a world federalist movement that looked to grow some meaningful measure of world governance. Unfortunately, the ideological divide between the east and west coupled with American triumphalism resulted in distrust that was too great to bridge. So, instead what we have is world plutocracy, through mechanisms like the United Nations, WTO, IMF and the WEF.

[bush_cheney2004]

Still no big deal, and it appears that the only thing Canada can do about it is to watch and see what the Americans are doing/not doing about it.

Typical....

[cybercoma]

Still no big deal, and it appears that the only thing Canada can do about it is to watch and see what the Americans are doing/not doing about it.

Typical....

How's buying all that hydro from Quebec working out for New England? I guess they'll just sit back and wait and see what Quebec does when the shit hits the fan.

[Derek 2.0]

This is not the first global threat, it won't be the last and it's not even close to being the worst. Nuclear weapons, biological weapons, climate alteration, cyber threats, all of these and more are or are becoming accessible to small, unstable states. As time goes on and technology improves, it becomes easier and cheaper to cause massive casualties and economic damage. You think a suitcase nuke is scary?

Exactly, every dollar spent on guarding against an EMP attack, is a dollar not spent on ports of entry security.....a terror group getting a nuclear/chemical/biological weapon is far more likely than an EMP attack.

[Army Guy]

I found your article interesting Argus....which promoted me to do some more reading, seems that it does have some traction with the US government as they have produced some alarming reports as well, in fact it was the them who produced the 90 % death rate.....

I remember taking some classes on EMP and it's effects part of my NBCW course a while back, never really paid much attention to EMP portion, as I was concentrating on the stuff that killed you in milliseconds...

It is the US governments report that has spun up the prepers and cash in on the latest scare that concerns me....a lot of bad info out there...

For what I understand it is not just EMP from a device that is the concern, it also mention solar flares , such as the one that happened in 1924, apparently it was the worse one on record, however at that period of time there was no real reliance on electrical power as there is today....it was said to be of enough strength to seriously knock out most of our todays power grid....

The report goes on to say even the largest device today could be packed into a rocket and launch off the coast....but as everyone has said MAD would be in effect if anything such as that happened, problem being is not with nations, but radical groups with no nation attached to them....that would be a problem.....like a dirty nuke situation....Yes they would cease to exist as every one brought their militaries to bare....but the damage would be done....

from what I have found, is that an EMP burst travels so fast that any equipment such as surge protectors could not react fast enough to stop the massive surge....it would fry everything with the blast radius, plugged in or not, unless shielded by other means , such as a complete electronic shield...

not only does it destroy the sensitive electronic components but also fires the wiring as well, to include telephone , power lines, plug ins to all our devices such as toaster, or dvd.....as the wiring acts like an antenna of sorts....

Now they did said it would be impossible to cover the entire US of A, and the effects would decrease the further you traveled from the point of impact , but the entire grid would come down, due to over loading etc....those grids further out would be able to reset....but those that were in the radius would have to rebuild from scratch, replacing all the infra structure such as power lines telephone lines etc....

I do agree that the death rate is way to high, but I can also see our society as we know it knocked to it's knees.....not out but US and Canada would need some help for sure.....it would take some time to bring back law and order....over all I think US citizens would fair a little better in a man eat man world....as they take that prepper thing very serious in a lot of areas....I think what scared me the most about the whole EMP thing is lack of mobility, not being able to get out of the danger zone , unless we walked....

It has made me at least take a second look a at my families preparations for natural or man made disasters.....at least on the food, and water front, along with camping and other survival goodies....I do have a full weeks of food in the house, and 2 weeks of water, but not enough... don't get me wrong still have a lot of military gear around the house, military maps, compasses, clothing made for survival....but way to under prepared for my liking....

[Army Guy]

Now us older guys could adjust pretty rapidly to no power, infact I love going to the cabin , as it has no modern anything, water is drawn from lake, toilet is an outhouse out back, and no power............it's the kids today that would have a mental break down in any such event....last power outage we had was 3 days and I thought I would have to put down my son, and daughters because they were driving me crazy...could not use their phones laptops nothing.....I could not imagine losing everything of power, vehs ,generators, as well.... shit i'm lucky my son knows how to use a shovel....but if they had to walk, or do things by hand....I think I would have to shot myself rather than to listen to their bitching and moaning....

[Derek 2.0]

The report goes on to say even the largest device today could be packed into a rocket and launch off the coast....but as everyone has said MAD would be in effect if anything such as that happened, problem being is not with nations, but radical groups with no nation attached to them....that would be a problem.....like a dirty nuke situation....Yes they would cease to exist as every one brought their militaries to bare....but the damage would be done....

And that is the major fault of the article.......launching a ballistic missile from a vessel brings about a whole host of complexities....launching a ballistic missile and being able to deploy a thermonuclear device into low Earth orbit to generate a NEMP is even more complex .......as I said, you can count on one hand the nations States that are able, and can afford, to do this.

If a Terrorist group was able to obtain a hydrogen bomb, they would detonate it in a city....not attempt to launch it into low Earth orbit over the United States.

from what I have found, is that an EMP burst travels so fast that any equipment such as surge protectors could not react fast enough to stop the massive surge....it would fry everything with the blast radius, plugged in or not, unless shielded by other means , such as a complete electronic shield...

The majority of modern military equipment is EMP protected, be it through isolation, insulation and redundancy......and very expensive silicon carbide computer chips..........For instance, you could produce a EMP protected Smartphone, but it would cost as much as your car.

The reason military equipment is EMP protected is because there was/is an expectation it could operate on a nuclear battlefield.........if you want a nations civilians infrastructure to be EMP protected, you will pay military prices for it..........and that doesn't make sense, as said, any nation that could launch such an attack on the United States would be precipitating a nuclear war on itself.

Is it a threat? Sure, the writers of The Day After even used it as plot device over 30 years ago. Is it a probable threat? No more so than a nuclear war and far less likely than the threat posed by a terrorist groups obtaining a nuke (or biological or chemical weapon) and deploying it in a large North American City.

[bush_cheney2004]

Most homes with conventional water heaters have a ready made source for 30 - 60 gallons (113 - 227 liters) of safe drinking water. That enough to last weeks in an emergency. Most people just don't realize it.

[Argus]

Part Two of the Sun report.

Recently, four states — Maine, Virginia, Florida and Arizona — have hardened their electrical grid. National legislation almost came to pass after Democrats and Republicans in Congress teamed up to unanimously pass the 2009 Grid Act. However, it failed to pass the Senate.

http://www.torontosun.com/2016/01/31/how-to-protect-canada-from-a-crippling-attack

[Argus]

Exactly, every dollar spent on guarding against an EMP attack, is a dollar not spent on ports of entry security.....a terror group getting a nuclear/chemical/biological weapon is far more likely than an EMP attack.

Really? Is the possibility 12% over the next decade? I'm guessing no. Further, the damage caused would be orders of magnitude worse with an EMP.

[Argus]

Now us older guys could adjust pretty rapidly to no power, infact I love going to the cabin , as it has no modern anything, water is drawn from lake, toilet is an outhouse out back, and no power............

How well do you think you could adjust to no food, or to crazed, desperate people killing you for what you do have?

[Derek 2.0]

Really? Is the possibility 12% over the next decade? I'm guessing no. Further, the damage caused would be orders of magnitude worse with an EMP.

And that returns to the probability of an EMP attack......those nations that could attack the United States also have nuclear arsenals of their own.....and there is no expectation that they would attempt to attack the United States and not expect a nuclear response.......as such, any EMP attack would be followed with the aggressors own nuclear weapons.

[Argus]

And that returns to the probability of an EMP attack......those nations that could attack the United States also have nuclear arsenals of their own.....and there is no expectation that they would attempt to attack the United States and not expect a nuclear response.......as such, any EMP attack would be followed with the aggressors own nuclear weapons.

You are ignoring the possibility no one will know where who fired the missile if not launched from the country who launched it. You are also (again) ignoring the damage of a massive solar flare.

Edited February 2, 2016 by Argus

[Derek 2.0]

You are ignoring the possibility no one will know where who fired the missile if not launched from the country who launched it. You are also (again) ignoring the damage of a massive solar flare.

The Americans can currently track any orbital launch from around the globe, and could continue to do so even after said attack......and they very much so have the means to respond.

And I'm not ignoring a massive solar flare, any more than a killer asteroid or alien invaders, but putting it into context.......if a solar flare powerful enough to halt all modern electrical systems on Earth were to occur, organic life on the planet would forever be altered.

[Derek 2.0]

How well do you think you could adjust to no food, or to crazed, desperate people killing you for what you do have?

Simple......natural selection. In such a scenario, those with chronic illnesses and the (frail) elderly would die off in weeks......those that require prescriptions, like heart medicine or insulin, would follow once their supplies were exhausted within a ~month.......in the interim, many would start to die off from infections and other "third world" diseases related to sanitation, contaminated water and food.......depending on the time of year, many would die from exposure......and then starvation.......in essence, the first couple of months would return society to the animal kingdom.

The way to avoid said calamities, is to avoid said people, or, as is more common since the dawn of man, reformation of "tribal groups" of like minded people, born out of geographic location, restoring a semblance of society among their "tribal" group........history would simply rinse and repeat, until civilized society was restored, either by the Government or through the creation of "new" governments.

[Argus]

Simple......natural selection. In such a scenario, those with chronic illnesses and the (frail) elderly would die off in weeks......those that require prescriptions, like heart medicine or insulin, would follow once their supplies were exhausted within a ~month.......in the interim, many would start to die off from infections and other "third world" diseases related to sanitation, contaminated water and food.......depending on the time of year, many would die from exposure......and then starvation.......in essence, the first couple of months would return society to the animal kingdom.

The way to avoid said calamities, is to avoid said people, or, as is more common since the dawn of man, reformation of "tribal groups" of like minded people, born out of geographic location, restoring a semblance of society among their "tribal" group........history would simply rinse and repeat, until civilized society was restored, either by the Government or through the creation of "new" governments.

Or we could just stockpile some spare transformers and harden up key parts of the damned power grid... wouldn't that be just a LITTLE smarter?

[Derek 2.0]

Or we could just stockpile some spare transformers and harden up key parts of the damned power grid... wouldn't that be just a LITTLE smarter?

No, because spending a fortune on addressing a remote problem is a waste of money, money that would be better spent on far more likely threats.