What happens if the power goes off?

[Argus]

It's fairly easy to shield electronics from EMP.

Would enormous numbers of electrical transformers blow out in an EMP, man-made or solar? If they do that shuts down the whole grid until you can repair them with new parts. I hope you have lots on hand because it's hard to make them without power. And in the winter....

[Argus]

90% of the population seems a little on the high side, and more along the lines of the aftermath 1 year+ nuclear exchange with the Soviets.

Furthermore, vehicles with carburetors, minus electronic ignitions (~early 70s and older or some newer diesels), or gas powered gen sets or tools (with pull starts) would also still function.....a

Generally speaking, its my understanding that large cities have about a three day supply of food. If the trucks and trains stop moving, bringing in more food every day, people start starving very quickly.

[Derek 2.0]

Still nothing like the alarmist nonsense described in the OP.

No, but catastrophic none the less......as bad as nuclear war? No, but it would result largely in our society taking a giant leap backwards.

U.S. defense contractors began compliance with mil-spec EMP hardening requirements before that, all the way down to integrated circuits and discrete components. Going back to vacuum tubes was not an option.

Its a moot point with civilian infrastructure though.

Take for example the railroads, now versus the later 1800s. Back then, railroads required intense manual labor to run, outside the actual physical attributes with steam trains. Namely logistics, things like scheduling, the compiling of loads, tracking and delivery etc. Then there was the actual running of the railways, with a reliant human hand to switch tacks, signal trains, make way-points etc...

Then there was the distribution of freight at the destinations. Then, they relied largely upon local consumption, in that goods wouldn't go further from the train stations then it could be taken by horse drawn wagons......as a result, cities grew-up around the railways (those not already connected to seaports etc).......even still, railways didn't really gain their critical importance until the advent of the telegraph (built along railway lines).....

Now apply this to North American railroads today. Though the physical infrastructure would still be there (trains, cars, tracks and stations), their ability to carry on without (or limited) modern communications would greatly restrict their ability to operate how they do today...........and this would have catastrophic effects in the near term.

[Argus]

This is complete nonsense....especially for Mexico ! More "north Americans" die each year from other causes than would die from one "EMP" event.

Really? How do you know? Shut down the power grid, shut down a significant number of trucks and trains and computers and communications... do it in winter. No food, no heat... You have chaos within a couple of days.

[Argus]

Still not buying it...how many people died from Hurricane Katrina.....about 2,000 ? How many deaths were related to power outages and other "grid" failures ? Far less....

Even a direct "nuclear strike" will not kill 90% of North America's population. I was in the business of doing such things and it is a lot harder than many people realize. During all of WW2, about 8% of Europe's population perished.

Did they find food? How much food is in New York city? LA and a LV need pumps to draw water, right? What happens when the pumps stop?

[Derek 2.0]

Generally speaking, its my understanding that large cities have about a three day supply of food. If the trucks and trains stop moving, bringing in more food every day, people start starving very quickly.

Without a doubt, and further to that, cities without a nearby water source would literally dry up once all the bottle water was looted out of stores.

[Derek 2.0]

No, anything electronic would not necessarily die. More electronics are impacted by ordinary lightning strikes and power surges each year.

Again a moot point, a lightning strike will generate a radio pulse upwards of 10 Mhz, a thermal nuclear device would be measured in the hundreds of MHz.

[Argus]

And said "period of time" is the key factor, and the ensuing economic damage, to determine the end result.

What you guys forget is the degree to which modern societies rely on their electronics and electrical aids. It wouldn't require a long period of time for most cities to degenerate into bloody chaos without food being brought in and water being pumped in. If significant numbers of vehicles don't work, including trains, for more than a few days you're going to get mass starvation. If the power is out for several days in winter you're going to start getting a lot of people freezing to death. Very few homes today have wood burning or coal burning stoves or fireplaces. Very few can even cook food without ovens and stoves and microwaves. Anyone have a paper map any more? No more google or GPS to tell you where the food collection points are. Without police communications security would break down almost immediately.

Edited January 31, 2016 by Argus

[Argus]

How many people even have food or water stored to get them through a couple of weeks without new supplies? I'm guessing less than 5%.

Edited January 31, 2016 by Argus

[Derek 2.0]

What you guys forget is the degree to which modern societies rely on their electronics and electrical aids.

I don't forget that at all.....quite the opposite.

[bush_cheney2004]

.... Anyone have a paper map any more? No more google or GPS to tell you where the food collection points are. Without police communications security would break down almost immediately.

Seriously ? No Google or GPS ? Gee, I wonder how we ever survived without those and many other "modern" things.

[Derek 2.0]

Seriously ? No Google or GPS ? Gee, I wonder how we ever survived without those and many other "modern" things.

Agreed, if the ability to (own) read a map to find locations of food "collection points" is the plan, social Darwinism will come into play severely....and quickly.

Simply put, in such a scenario, the majority will rush the grocery stores.....those slightly smarter will rush the warehouses and distribution points.....and those even smarter will avoid the chaos with the supplies they have on hand at home.

Those expecting a semblance of civility should study a phenomenon know as the "blue flu", an infliction that effects the emergency services in major disasters or civil unrest (see Katrina for example), in which said officers/paramedics/firefighters/doctors/military etc bugger off and look after their own families.........as made evident by the New Orleans police department, it shouldn't be a surprise to find in such scenarios the first responders looting alongside the rest of society.

[GostHacked]

The 2003 east coast blackout was an example of the cascade effect caused by operator failure in one utility. The same effect could, in theory, triggered by a hack. That said, the utilities have been working to isolate their systems from that kind of event so I would expect the effects of such an attack to be more geographically limited today.

I believe the opposite is happening where these systems are getting more integrated and accessible via the 'internet of things' connectivity. Increasing the risk of a cascading effect. I've talked about this before in other threads dealing with technology and connectivity.

[GostHacked]

Without a doubt, and further to that, cities without a nearby water source would literally dry up once all the bottle water was looted out of stores.

Of if you are Flint Michigan the water from the river will be enough to do serious harm if not kill you.

[Derek 2.0]

Of if you are Flint Michigan the water from the river will be enough to do serious harm if not kill you.

Without a doubt, waterborne viruses found in untreated water would off lots of people.......dying from dysentery wouldn't be a pleasant way to go out.

[Argus]

Seriously ? No Google or GPS ? Gee, I wonder how we ever survived without those and many other "modern" things.

We had maps. We had phone books. You have a phone book? I don't. When was the last time you looked at a paper map?

[Derek 2.0]

We had maps. We had phone books. You have a phone book? I don't. When was the last time you looked at a paper map?

Last fall during hunting season........if a person doesn't have a map, or know how to read one, see Darwinism.

The best maps are easily purchased (or even downloaded and printed) from your Province's forestry/natural resources ministry......in the United States, it would the USGC.

[Argus]

Without a doubt, waterborne viruses found in untreated water would off lots of people.......dying from dysentery wouldn't be a pleasant way to go out.

And yet from what this article suggests, and what I've read elsewhere, this is hardly an impossible scenario to mitigate against. The costs would not be enormous, nor the timelines. Neither Canada nor the US would have any problem hardening their electrical power grids against EMPs. They just... aren't doing it. I think Maine is the only place where that's actually happening, though Texas is at least seriously talking about it. But the federal government, in both the US and Canada, has ignored the issue.

On May 14, a bi-partisan group of over 30 former high-level military, intelligence, national security policy makers, and scientists requested that the President initiate an effort to harden critical civilian electrical grid infrastructure to withstand the same catastrophic events for which the military has hardened its own critical infrastructure.

http://securethegrid.com/2015/05/20/national-security-community-asks-for-executive-action-on-electrical-grid-security/

I have not been able to find anything which indicates any portion of the Canadian government or the provinces is even aware of the possibility of the threat, much less has even considered doing anything about it.

http://mackenzieinstitute.com/emp-threat-canada-2/

[Argus]

Last fall during hunting season........if a person doesn't have a map, or know how to read one, see Darwinism.

You think having a largely useless article for anyone other than rural hunters is an example of Darwinism? How much food and water do you store in your home?

Edited February 1, 2016 by Argus

[bush_cheney2004]

...I have not been able to find anything which indicates any portion of the Canadian government or the provinces is even aware of the possibility of the threat, much less has even considered doing anything about it.

Americans and Mexicans anxiously await the strong leadership and direction from Canadian government(s) to save our continent to build more autos in Mexico.

[Derek 2.0]

And yet from what this article suggests, and what I've read elsewhere, this is hardly an impossible scenario to mitigate against. The costs would not be enormous, nor the timelines. Neither Canada nor the US would have any problem hardening their electrical power grids against EMPs. They just... aren't doing it. I think Maine is the only place where that's actually happening, though Texas is at least seriously talking about it. But the federal government, in both the US and Canada, has ignored the issue.

Cost is subjective........public/private utilities are only one part of the problem, the end users grids would be far more costly..........you have any idea how much it would cost to rewire your own home and replace most of your electronics?

----------

As to Texas, its far easier and already is to an extent, as the State itself is already isolated from the North American power grid..........one of the reasons the American military has a large footprint in the State, and its home to major military/aerospace/hightech/energy industries.

[Derek 2.0]

You think having a largely useless article for anyone other than rural hunters is an example of Darwinism? How much food and water do you store in your home?

I don't know how you consider a map useless.....don't you have roadmaps in your car?

--------

Five years worth of food, 6 months of water and water treatment tablets and filters for a decade+.

Edited February 1, 2016 by Derek 2.0

[Argus]

Cost is subjective...

Compared to mass death? I don't think so.

.....public/private utilities are only one part of the problem, the end users grids would be far more costly.

Maybe so but if the electric grid worked, then we'd have hospitals, water treatment, police, fire, schools and governmental communication just to start.

[Derek 2.0]

Compared to mass death? I don't think so.

The cost to mitigate the after effects of a nuclear war for the entire population in the 50s and 60s, through civil defense measures, was too much for most countries then.....when it was far more likely then we'd see a nuclear exchange with the Soviets, versus a massive EMP attack today.

Maybe so but if the electric grid worked, then we'd have hospitals, water treatment, police, fire, schools and governmental communication just to start.

Not unless you hardened those facilities too........in BC, the ,majority of public buildings wouldn't even survive an earthquake.........so again it returns to cost.

[Argus]

The cost to mitigate the after effects of a nuclear war for the entire population in the 50s and 60s, through civil defense measures, was too much for most countries then.....when it was far more likely then we'd see a nuclear exchange with the Soviets, versus a massive EMP attack today.

Okay, but how is that relevant? The cost to mitigate against EMPs is far, far lower.

Not unless you hardened those facilities too........in BC, the ,majority of public buildings wouldn't even survive an earthquake.........so again it returns to cost.

The cost is minimal compared to the cost of not doing so if something happens. A couple of billion would probably do it. The Liberals will skim that much off in graft in just a year or two.