ReeferMadness Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 Is it too soon to start celebrating the end of the Harper era? Quote Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists. - Noam Chomsky It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
Exegesisme Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 OK, I am taking another revamp based on my correct observation of a Liberal majority. Liberals - 178 CPC - 100 NDP - 57 Bloc - 2 Grn - 1 I wonder if Harper's concession speech is written yet. Bloc may win much more than your prediction. Quote
The_Squid Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 Nanaimo area... Apparently, Greens are polling 2nd (tied with CPC) behind NDP in this riding. Quote
Exegesisme Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 Is it too soon to start celebrating the end of the Harper era? You can not start now, but you would like to prepare now. Quote
G Huxley Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 Good luck to Nanaimo. That would be awesome if the Greens could gain a number of seats on the island. Quote
ReeferMadness Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 Good luck to Nanaimo. That would be awesome if the Greens could gain a number of seats on the island. Unlikely but who knows. Quote Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists. - Noam Chomsky It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
G Huxley Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 (edited) Leger, Nanos, Ipsos, Mainstreet, Forum....none of them have what you're talking about. Well I certainly hope so. The last two EKOS polls had this phenomenon in Quebec: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/10/deadlock-broken-liberals-surging/ http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/10/penultimate-check-up-on-election-42/ I don't know if the other pollsters break it down by province vs. the country as a whole. This article shows the Bloc pretty high too: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-quebec-split-michelle-gagnon-1.3272915 Edited October 19, 2015 by G Huxley Quote
dre Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 Nanaimo area... Apparently, Greens are polling 2nd (tied with CPC) behind NDP in this riding. Went to Barsby LOL. Wow, quite a few islanders here. EB is from up north on the island somewhere too... Quote I question things because I am human. And call no one my father who's no closer than a stranger
The_Squid Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 Barsby had a bad rep when I went to school! Quote
SpankyMcFarland Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 FPTP is fun if you don't care about the result. A party's prospects can suddenly rise, like the BQ, when it reaches the threshold. Quote
Smallc Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 Well I certainly hope so. The last two EKOS polls had this phenomenon in Quebec: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/10/deadlock-broken-liberals-surging/ http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/10/penultimate-check-up-on-election-42/ I don't know if the other pollsters break it down by province vs. the country as a whole. This article shows the Bloc pretty high too: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-quebec-split-michelle-gagnon-1.3272915 EKOS has been all over the map this election. A 10% difference is outside of any margin of error for the province. All the posters I listed break down by province, btw. Quote
The_Squid Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 FPTP is fun if you don't care about the result. A party's prospects can suddenly rise, like the BQ, when it reaches the threshold. Good point. Unfortunately, I do care about the results. Some form of PR is needed. FPTP skews the results of elections and gives way too much power to a party that can't even get a majority of Canadians to support them. Quote
Smallc Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 Not some form, STV...that's the only workable solution (though I'm not sure what you do with the north). Quote
ReeferMadness Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 Not some form, STV...that's the only workable solution (though I'm not sure what you do with the north). Combine it into one enormous 3 seat riding? idk. Quote Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists. - Noam Chomsky It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
ReeferMadness Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 Combine it into one enormous 3 seat riding? idk. ETA: MMP would have similar issues because unless you increase the number of MP's, ridings need to be bigger. Quote Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists. - Noam Chomsky It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
SpankyMcFarland Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 (edited) Vancouver King, wrt your correct observation of a Liberal majority, are you from the future by any chance? Edited October 19, 2015 by SpankyMcFarland Quote
Smallc Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 Combine it into one enormous 3 seat riding? idk. I suppose for the territories, STV would have to function as AV. It should be that way for PEI too, but, we can't give it less seats without a big mess. Quote
G Huxley Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 EKOS has been all over the map this election. A 10% difference is outside of any margin of error for the province. All the posters I listed break down by province, btw. It might have to do with EKOS' land line only policy. e.g. the older voters would be more likely to say that they vote Bloc than young cell phone users. Quote
cybercoma Posted October 19, 2015 Author Report Posted October 19, 2015 The current polls have the Bloc neck and neck with the LPC and NDP in Quebec, so you might have to take that into consideration with your seat projection.No they don't. The Bloc is behind and neck and neck with the Tories. Quote
ReeferMadness Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 I suppose for the territories, STV would have to function as AV. It should be that way for PEI too, but, we can't give it less seats without a big mess. PEI has 4 seats - one riding. Quote Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists. - Noam Chomsky It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
SpankyMcFarland Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 The best thing about STV - you can get get rid of tools in your own party. No sitting MP can be too cocky. Quote
Smallc Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 PEI has 4 seats - one riding. I know...that's at least two too many...probably three too many. Quote
Smallc Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 Saskatchewan should have 11 - 12 seats Manitoba should have 12 - 13 New Brunswick should have 7 - 8 PEI should have 1 - 2 Nova Scotia should have 9 Newfoundland and Labrador should have 5 All of these provinces are over represented. Quote
cybercoma Posted October 19, 2015 Author Report Posted October 19, 2015 It might have to do with EKOS' land line only policy. e.g. the older voters would be more likely to say that they vote Bloc than young cell phone users. They don't have a land line only policy. This study was conducted using EKOS’ unique, hybrid online/telephone research panel, Probit. Our panel offers exhaustive coverage of the Canadian population (i.e., Internet, phone, cell phone), random recruitment (in other words, participants are recruited randomly, they do not opt themselves into our panel), and equal probability sampling. All respondents to our panel are recruited by telephone using random digit dialling and are confirmed by live interviewers. Unlike opt-in online panels, Probit supports margin of error estimates. We believe this to be the only probability-based online panel in Canada. Source: Page 18. But that methodology does present a number of problems. Quote
cybercoma Posted October 19, 2015 Author Report Posted October 19, 2015 New Brunswick should have 7 - 8 This would be just completely unworkable with New Brunswick, linguistically, culturally, politically, and historically. Quote
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