.

[Canada_First]

Even the National Post is mocking the Conservatives desperate reach-out to the Ford brothers here and here.

The paper (or at least its owner) is still endorsing them, though. Pathetic.

Lol.

I'm hoping that progressives will see that only the NDP is the correct choice if the left. The Liberals are already in hot water for the new lobbyist scandal. Same old Liberals. Not new. Not ready. Vote for Mulcair. He's a real leader.

[Canada_First]

Who are they going to do a deal with? An interim leader that won't be around to live up to his/her end? A headless caucus? Stephen Harper?

Mulcair may be PM with cpc in opposition with the Liberals remaining in third place.

Let's go with the third choice. The real choice. The orange choice. The NDP.

[blueblood]

My seat prediction

CPC 0-338

LPC 0-338

NDP 0-338

GRN 0-338

BQ 0-78

OTH 0-338

Too funny

[ReeferMadness]

Mulcair may be PM with cpc in opposition with the Liberals remaining in third place.

Let's go with the third choice. The real choice. The orange choice. The NDP.

Yeah, that's gonna happen.

[nerve]

It looks increasingly likely that it will be a liberal minority - however the liberals should put serious weight into a coalition - this may only be possible if they have a low seat count - but whomever wins get a senate pot.

If there are 25 open seats it will insure that if the liberals get a minority they will have the majority of the senate too unless I am counting wrong (not accounting for the fact liberal senate seats arn't always completely partisan) however if there was a coalition perhaps we would see some NDPish senate appointments in addition to liberal appointments. The liberals seem to be the only ones who want to fill the senate. So it is likely something that will be done very early on. There is probably already a list somewhere. My predition essentially remains the same at this point but if basing on polls the seat fallout in Alberta will be more than I first suspected.

Edited October 18, 2015 by nerve

[Vancouver King]

It looks increasingly likely that it will be a liberal minority - however the liberals should put serious weight into a coalition - this may only be possible if they have a low seat count - but whomever wins get a senate pot.

It looks increasingly likely that it will be a liberal majority. Two respected pollsters have them at 38% - majority territory.

[Big Guy]

It looks increasingly likely that it will be a liberal majority. Two respected pollsters have them at 38% - majority territory.

I think that would be the worst possible result for both the Liberals and Canada. Going from one majority government to an opposite majority government creates chaos. A new government requires some checks and balances so that the more passionate inexperienced people placed into Cabinet have an opportunity to learn their job before making too many major changes.

It does look like a Liberal victory but I hope they are limited to a minority and have to moderate their more contentious policy decisions by working with another party.

[Vancouver King]

I think that would be the worst possible result for both the Liberals and Canada. Going from one majority government to an opposite majority government creates chaos. A new government requires some checks and balances so that the more passionate inexperienced people placed into Cabinet have an opportunity to learn their job before making too many major changes.

It does look like a Liberal victory but I hope they are limited to a minority and have to moderate their more contentious policy decisions by working with another party.

I couldn't agree more - but for different reasons.

A Liberal minority propped up by the NDP ensures Liberals will have less opportunity to rule from the right after it's campaign on the left, a favorite Grit trick. The NDP will likely demand Trudeau stick to his campaign promises.

Also there is less likelihood the 'pigs at the trough' insider crowd will make an early move against the treasury. A minority gov't implies, as you stated, a period of Liberal rule under effective checks and balances to make the adjustment after a decade of one man Harper gov't.

Liberals ruling from a minority is very much in the public interest.

[Exegesisme]

Six Estes. of New Distribution of Seats After Election 2015

Con NDP Lib Green Bloc

Seats 338

My EST(1) 114+-15 47+-10 153+-20 2+-1 22+-12

THE GLOBE'S ELECTION FORECAST​(2)

101 63 170 1 3

The Huffington Post Canada(3)

​120 76 133 1 8

CBC polls analyst(4)

122 73 137 1 5

Trading Statistics and Predictions(5)

113 65 151 2 7

election prediction(6)

119 86 120 2 5 6(?)

Reference

(1)http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums/topic/18384-federal-election-polls/page-369

(2)http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/globe-election-forecast-2015/article25377958/

(3)​http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/10/18/election-2015-seat-projections-liberals-trudeau_n_8325024.html

(4)http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html

(5)https://predictionmarkets.ca/CA15.php

(6)​http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/index.php

Edited October 18, 2015 by Exegesisme

[ReeferMadness]

It looks increasingly likely that it will be a liberal majority. Two respected pollsters have them at 38% - majority territory.

Liberals won't take a majority unless they get over 40% and that's completely unlikely. You should be more worried about the Conservatives sneaking back in with a minority and then playing their famous games.

[Exegesisme]

Liberals won't take a majority unless they get over 40% and that's completely unlikely. You should be more worried about the Conservatives sneaking back in with a minority and then playing their famous games.

A Liberal minority is much more likely than a Conservative minority, although Liberal also has a low chance to get a majority.

Edited October 18, 2015 by Exegesisme

[ReeferMadness]

A Liberal minority is much more likely than a Conservative minority.

Yes. And aside from the Conservative base, most people agree that is the best possible outcome at this time.

[Vancouver King]

Liberals won't take a majority unless they get over 40% and that's completely unlikely. You should be more worried about the Conservatives sneaking back in with a minority and then playing their famous games.

I recall Chretien winning a majority with 38%.

[Exegesisme]

Yes. And aside from the Conservative base, most people agree that is the best possible outcome at this time.

Some voters seemingly enjoy a Liberal minority, to make the power more balance.

[ReeferMadness]

I recall Chretien winning a majority with 38%.

You seem to be the only one calling for a Liberal majority.

[Big Guy]

Anybody get the feeling that there are just too many seats in Ottawa?

[Smallc]

I wouldn't be surprised looking at the just out IPSOS poll. The NDP is crashing and he Liberals are still on their way up.

[Smallc]

Anybody get the feeling that there are just too many seats in Ottawa?

How do you mean?

[ReeferMadness]

I wouldn't be surprised looking at the just out IPSOS poll. The NDP is crashing and he Liberals are still on their way up.

According to Polltracker, a Liberal majority is an outside possibility. But so is a Conservative majority.

[Smallc]

According to Polltracker, a Liberal majority is an outside possibility. But so is a Conservative majority.

The poll tracker does not yet include the IPSOS poll.

[Vancouver King]

You seem to be the only one calling for a Liberal majority.

If Chretien can do it with 38% so can son of PET. Chances are tomorrow we will all be toasting a Liberal gov't - however, I am the only one talking up why a Liberal majority is not in Canadians interest.

Your fear of Harper somehow resuscitated from his death bed is irrational.

[ReeferMadness]

If Chretien can do it with 38% so can son of PET. Chances are tomorrow we will all be toasting a Liberal gov't - however, I am the only one talking up why a Liberal majority is not in Canadians interest.

Your fear of Harper somehow resuscitated from his death bed is irrational.

I would take my chances with a Liberal majority before I accepted a Conservative minority - but I don't think it will come to that. In order of likelihood, here's how I see tomorrow's results

1. Liberal minority

2. Conservative minority

3. Liberal majority

4. Conservative majority

5. NDP minority

I don't see any potential for an NDP majority.

[Big Guy]

How do you mean?

Do we really need 338 folks in Ottawa to adequately represent all Canadians? How about 170 or maybe 676?

[ReeferMadness]

The poll tracker does not yet include the IPSOS poll.

I balance the poll projections (which are mostly top down mathematical models that have historically underestimated Conservative numbers) with electionprediction.org, which is bottom up analysis. Also, IIRC, polling on voting from advance polls show a Conservative lead at this point.

Nobody really knows what happens when people show up to vote tomorrow but a Liberal majority is very unlikely.

[Smallc]

Do we really need 338 folks in Ottawa to adequately represent all Canadians? How about 170 or maybe 676?

It's approximately 1 representative per 100K people. It's just a ratio we use. I do feel that there is major over representation in Atlantic Canada and minor over representation in the Prairies, but other than that I'm fine with the ratio.