Argus Posted May 20, 2015 Report Posted May 20, 2015 The best advice I think you can get, at least on the cheap, on Canadian stocks, is 5I Research. They have information on most Canadian stocks, and also have model portfolios of recommended stocks for balance, income or growth. It's not free, but I regard the $140 a year I spend for membership to be well worthwhile. It's also tax deductible, btw, as a cost of investing. Quote "A liberal is someone who claims to be open to all points of view — and then is surprised and offended to find there are other points of view.” William F Buckley
Argus Posted May 20, 2015 Report Posted May 20, 2015 Michael has been talking about mid May to late October as being a good time to seasonally get out of the market as it often goes down then. Also that oil(and I'm talking ETF's here) could typically be rising until the end of August. Anyway, I'll check out the BNN market call tonight, I need to get more familiar with the investment game. That's the "sell in May and go away" phiilosphy, which suggests all the big money is made between October and April. But that statistical fact hasn't held steady over the past five years. Quote "A liberal is someone who claims to be open to all points of view — and then is surprised and offended to find there are other points of view.” William F Buckley
bush_cheney2004 Posted August 13, 2015 Author Report Posted August 13, 2015 OK folks...time to make some more easy money as oil tanks below $40 US. The oil glut will continue and worsen as/when sanctions are eased against Iran. In addition to oil ETFs, I am also looking at currency shares, like FXC for the Canadian dollar, which closely follows oil/commodity prices. Pick your entry points and ride them back up to a handsome profit. "Greed is good". Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
Argus Posted August 16, 2015 Report Posted August 16, 2015 OK folks...time to make some more easy money as oil tanks below $40 US. The oil glut will continue and worsen as/when sanctions are eased against Iran. In addition to oil ETFs, I am also looking at currency shares, like FXC for the Canadian dollar, which closely follows oil/commodity prices. Pick your entry points and ride them back up to a handsome profit. "Greed is good". It certainly is, which is why I am staying far, far away from anything to do with oil, as I have been since last fall. Up almost fifteen percent on the year because of it. Quote "A liberal is someone who claims to be open to all points of view — and then is surprised and offended to find there are other points of view.” William F Buckley
sharkman Posted August 21, 2015 Report Posted August 21, 2015 They say oil could stay below $40 for years. If that's the case, then would other energy markets grow as a result? Quote
Argus Posted August 21, 2015 Report Posted August 21, 2015 They say oil could stay below $40 for years. If that's the case, then would other energy markets grow as a result? Other energy markets? What do you mean? Oil below $40 is bad for all energy markets, oil or otherwise. As someone said in the paper today, if alternative energy sources were uneconomical when oil was at $100 a barrel, how economical are they when oil is at $30-$40 a barrel? Quote "A liberal is someone who claims to be open to all points of view — and then is surprised and offended to find there are other points of view.” William F Buckley
Bonam Posted August 21, 2015 Report Posted August 21, 2015 Those silly Arabs hurrying to pump their only natural resource out of the ground as fast as they can and selling it at firesale prices. The lower the price goes, the more they have to keep pumping so they can keep their populations on the dole. It will only hasten how fast the whole region falls out of relevance. Quote
sharkman Posted August 21, 2015 Report Posted August 21, 2015 Other energy markets? What do you mean? Oil below $40 is bad for all energy markets, oil or otherwise. As someone said in the paper today, if alternative energy sources were uneconomical when oil was at $100 a barrel, how economical are they when oil is at $30-$40 a barrel? What I'm trying to get at in my usual inelegant way, is to ask if some other market/stock/ goes up when oil is down. Quote
msj Posted August 21, 2015 Report Posted August 21, 2015 Those silly Arabs hurrying to pump their only natural resource out of the ground as fast as they can and selling it at firesale prices. The lower the price goes, the more they have to keep pumping so they can keep their populations on the dole. It will only hasten how fast the whole region falls out of relevance. What's interesting is that the Saudi's are getting into solar power generation. They want to produce solar for the local grid which would allow them to export more oil. Makes sense. But I am still hoping for the day when natural gas/solar/wind breaks the back of the Middle East (and, presumably, Alberta but collateral damage is collateral damage so so be it). Quote If a believer demands that I, as a non-believer, observe his taboos in the public domain, he is not asking for my respect but for my submission. And that is incompatible with a secular democracy. Flemming Rose (Dutch journalist) My biggest takeaway from economics is that the past wasn't as good as you remember, the present isn't as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate. Morgan Housel http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/14/things-im-pretty-sure-about.aspx
msj Posted August 21, 2015 Report Posted August 21, 2015 What I'm trying to get at in my usual inelegant way, is to ask if some other market/stock/ goes up when oil is down. Yep, you can buy ETF's that are the inverse of oil and natural gas and certain other sectors/markets/commodities. For example, DWTI is a leveraged inverse fund that follows WTI. It is 3 times leveraged so if WTI goes down 2% it will go up 6% (it is not perfect though). You have to be careful with these funds because they decay over medium/long periods of time. Meaning, that over time the funds eventually will go to zero no matter what the market does (assuming the funds never split/reverse split and assuming they did not raise further funding). If you want to find similar funds I recommend you use the ETF screener and filter for inverse funds. I find them fun to use but I'm a terrible market timer so I have made and lost money on these things (using the gambling part of my portfolio). Quote If a believer demands that I, as a non-believer, observe his taboos in the public domain, he is not asking for my respect but for my submission. And that is incompatible with a secular democracy. Flemming Rose (Dutch journalist) My biggest takeaway from economics is that the past wasn't as good as you remember, the present isn't as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate. Morgan Housel http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/14/things-im-pretty-sure-about.aspx
Bonam Posted August 21, 2015 Report Posted August 21, 2015 I wouldn't hold leveraged and/or inverse funds for more than a few days tops, honestly. They decay pretty badly over time. Quote
bush_cheney2004 Posted August 21, 2015 Author Report Posted August 21, 2015 (edited) I wouldn't hold leveraged and/or inverse funds for more than a few days tops, honestly. They decay pretty badly over time. Right....triple the reward but triple the risk as well. I have a small position in an inverse oil ETF ==> SCO. It is up 300% in one year. I accumulated some shares just as a hedge for USO. None of these oil ETFs are a good long term strategy. Contango gets you too. Edited August 21, 2015 by bush_cheney2004 Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
Argus Posted August 22, 2015 Report Posted August 22, 2015 (edited) What I'm trying to get at in my usual inelegant way, is to ask if some other market/stock/ goes up when oil is down. Sure. Take a look at what's happened to airline stocks this year. Oil is a major expense for them, so cheaper oil means more profits. A lot of industries use a lot of oil and oil byproducts, such as the chemical industry. Tire makers would be another one. Those who benefit from more travel - and cheaper oil means more travel, would also do well. That's provided the economy is doing okay, of course. Consumers with more money in their pockets due to having to spend less on gas would also be spending more on other things. So consumer discretionary stocks have done well this year - well, up until August. Nobody has been doing well in August, particularly over the past week. Edited August 22, 2015 by Argus Quote "A liberal is someone who claims to be open to all points of view — and then is surprised and offended to find there are other points of view.” William F Buckley
SpankyMcFarland Posted October 4, 2015 Report Posted October 4, 2015 (edited) Argus, I would not want to be holding a big wad of Apple shares right now. There's a lot of glamour about that company which scares me. I should add I know absolutely nothing about the industry. How did the guys who talked about oil at the beginning of this thread do so far? Over the years, I have invested in a few dead cats strictly for entertainment, e.g. Irish banks, Nortel and Air Canada, and by dumb luck I happen to be up (although not on Air Canada which remains consistently disappointing in every possible way). I am tempted to take a punt on VW at the moment. However, I leave the serious stuff in my portfolio to people who seem to know what they are doing because I will never have a competitive advantage there and I am too old to take big chances. Edited October 4, 2015 by SpankyMcFarland Quote ‘How small we make our worlds. Gather them in, tighten them up into little castles of fear.’
msj Posted November 20, 2015 Report Posted November 20, 2015 Argus, I would not want to be holding a big wad of Apple shares right now. There's a lot of glamour about that company which scares me. I should add I know absolutely nothing about the industry. How did the guys who talked about oil at the beginning of this thread do so far? I'm doing fine. Still holding my Apple shares and they go up and they go down etc... One of these days I'm going to sell them but meh, I hate selling and love buying so it's hard. Only related oil purchase I have made is XEG - a Canadian ETF that focuses mainly on Alberta companies. I only have 200 units around a $12ish cost so I'm down a couple hundred. Really bought it to watch the industry closer and like to compare it to Kevin O'Leary's fund as when the NDP were elected in Alberta he cried for everyone to get out of Alberta. So that one is more for fun than profit. Other than that, bought FCG - natural gas ETF but US based. Got it on the cheap but it has gone up by 10% and down by 20% since I have owned it. I expect to hold that one for 5+ years so whatever. I think anything else I have bought since then is not related to the oil industry and I have not sold too much (at least not recently). USO is now on my short term watch/buy list. I would really prefer oil to go to $30 so I could comfortably just go all in. Oil could go to the $20 range and stay there for a brief period of time (say weeks, possibly a month or two). But I still expect some kind of trading range - $40 to $60. So, buy when it's below $40 and sell when it's above $50 would probably be an ok strategy. Quote If a believer demands that I, as a non-believer, observe his taboos in the public domain, he is not asking for my respect but for my submission. And that is incompatible with a secular democracy. Flemming Rose (Dutch journalist) My biggest takeaway from economics is that the past wasn't as good as you remember, the present isn't as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate. Morgan Housel http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/14/things-im-pretty-sure-about.aspx
bush_cheney2004 Posted November 20, 2015 Author Report Posted November 20, 2015 Bought 10K REXX today on the dip as oil prices crater near $40. Unleaded gasoline is now selling for under $2.00/gallon in my region. Buy low...sell high...rinse and repeat. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
bush_cheney2004 Posted November 24, 2015 Author Report Posted November 24, 2015 REXX crashed today below support on a downdrade...glad my stop loss order executed ! Saudis may reduce production, but we will still be swimming in oil for some time. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
ReeferMadness Posted December 16, 2015 Report Posted December 16, 2015 Sooooo, how are those oil ETF's working for you? Quote Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists. - Noam Chomsky It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
bush_cheney2004 Posted December 16, 2015 Author Report Posted December 16, 2015 ETFs are doing great...SCO is up 35% this month alone. REXX's penny stock volatility gives me $500 -$1000 opportunity each day. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
Big Guy Posted December 31, 2015 Report Posted December 31, 2015 Tanker with first U.S. crude export in 40 Years has set sail! http://fortune.com/2015/12/31/tanker-crude-exports/ What does that mean for Canadians? Quote Note - For those expecting a response from Big Guy: I generally do not read or respond to posts longer then 300 words nor to parsed comments.
bush_cheney2004 Posted January 6, 2016 Author Report Posted January 6, 2016 Wow! What a ride down today for WTI crude....$34 per barrel. I loaded up on oversold energy stocks, hoping for some recovery by end of the week. Hope that H-bomb was fake ! Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
bush_cheney2004 Posted January 24, 2016 Author Report Posted January 24, 2016 Oil may have bottomed and more QE & cheap money is promised by Europe. Currency ETF for Canadian dollar (FXC) should trend up. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
Argus Posted February 8, 2016 Report Posted February 8, 2016 (edited) Oil may have bottomed and more QE & cheap money is promised by Europe. You keep telling yourself that. Production has lowered by 0.1% after all, and now the Iranians are starting to pump out oil. The tank farms are starting to fill up. The world is flooded with oil. Edited February 8, 2016 by Argus Quote "A liberal is someone who claims to be open to all points of view — and then is surprised and offended to find there are other points of view.” William F Buckley
ReeferMadness Posted February 8, 2016 Report Posted February 8, 2016 lol Inventories are at an all time high, oil companies desperately need to continue to pump because they need cash to stay above water, Iran will ramp up production, economic growth is sluggish, growth in alternative energy will dampen demand, and there is a 4,000 well "fracklog" (shale wells that have been drilled but not completed) that will dampen any price upswing. On the flip side, big car sales are rising, new projects have been cancelled, shale wells are notorious for having steep rates of decline, there's always the possibility of war or instability in the middle east, at some point large mature oil pools that have been supplying the world for decades will go into decline and nobody knows when or if the world economy will take off again. IOW, nobody can tell when or if the price of oil will spike again. Don't bet the grocery money on it. Quote Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists. - Noam Chomsky It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
bush_cheney2004 Posted February 8, 2016 Author Report Posted February 8, 2016 You keep telling yourself that. No...I keep day trading oil stocks. Can make money no matter what oil does. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
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