Ontario Budget 2014 -- Election

[Boges]

Yes, I'm sure Karl Rove thought that. Thoughtful polling, though, fed into a strategy to use budget more efficiently and most likely delivered the 2012 presidential win for the democrats.

Telling me how Polling successfully predicted the BC and Alberta elections? Oh and the election of Rob Ford.

Parties are free to do internal polling to see where they need to focus their efforts. BUT these published polls that prove only to tell people what their thinking is a travesty. It actually influences people's opinions more than anything else.

Our polling says this person X is doing poorly therefore they must be a bad candidate.

Edited May 5, 2014 by Boges

[cybercoma]

It's all bullcrap. Polling is a faux science that's only goal is to create news.

Whatever you say. The explanation is there. A basic understanding of statistics will tell you why this is accurate. Nate Silver has been insanely accurate with his forecasting. I think the part that you might have glossed over at the link is that the further away from election day we are, the less meaning the polls have. They're a cross-sectional snapshot of the electorate at any given moment in time. People's opinions and views change constantly. So they're not bullshit. They're just trying to hit a moving target. Nevertheless, they are hitting the target at the time the polls are taken, unless there are some fundamental flaws in the methodology. There usually isn't.

[cybercoma]

Our polling says this person X is doing poorly therefore they must be a bad candidate.

Someone doing poorly in a poll doesn't mean they're a bad candidate. It means the electorate doesn't support them.

[Scotty]

You say they're approaching $90k, but the link I provided says half of the firefighters in Canada make less than $58000. Do you have a source showing the median firefighter income in Ontario is near $90k?

As I said, firefighter salaries seem to be highest in Ontario, though they're generally high across Canada. I've already given cites for a number of Ontario municipalities. I tried to find out what Ottawa firefighters make but apparently the city is doing its best to keep that off the web. However, I found stories saying hundreds of Ottawa firefighters were on the sunshine list. Here is another cite listing Toronto, Windsor, Owen Sound, and Cambridge.

You have to remember that the mandator arbiteration system in Ontario for both police and firefighters is not based on the muncipalities offer or ability to pay. It's based on what other other police/firefighters earn elsewhere in Ontario. Therefore, the odds of there being any substantial difference in salaries (unlike in New York) between what is being paid are pretty low.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/a-nation-of-100000-firefighters/article13647608/#dashboard/follows/

[Boges]

Firefighters routinely hold municipalities hostage. They are assisted by insurance companies that require a certain response time for giving a good rate for contents insurance.

In Toronto there was a huge PR campaign to protest the removal of 4 trucks and one station. The chief countered by saying that up to 5 trucks are routinely out of service due to absenteeism.

Firefighting is continually becoming less needed but because of constantly growing nature of the civil service the Fire budgets continue to grow exponentially.

Edited May 5, 2014 by Boges

[Michael Hardner]

Telling me how Polling successfully predicted the BC and Alberta elections? Oh and the election of Rob Ford.

3 different questions:

1 ) Is polling a faux sicence ?

2 ) Does it work all the time ?

3 ) Does it work when used intelligently ?

1 ) No

2 ) No

3 ) Most of the time

[Boges]

So it's used intelligently when correct? How did the polling companies F-Up Ford, Alberta and BC.

Regardless, I guess there's a way they can project seat counts but I don't believe in them.

The headlines are the PCs are ahead in the polls but the headline is that the Liberals stand to form a government PERFECT!!!

[Boges]

Why doesn't Wynne sue Horvath?

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/05/05/wynne_accuses_horwath_of_making_it_up_on_ttc_privatization.html

Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne is railing against the New Democrats for claiming she would privatize the Toronto Transit Commission.

In the wake of NDP Leader Andrea Horwath telling CBC Radio’s Metro Morning that Wynne would expand the privatization of such public services, the Grit chief was seeing red.

“Let’s just be clear: that’s a made-up comment because we have never ever — I have never ever — talked about privatizing the TTC so I have no idea where Andrea Horwath is getting that idea,” she said.

“She’s making it up. It’s just not true.”

[Michael Hardner]

So it's used intelligently when correct? How did the polling companies F-Up Ford, Alberta and BC.

I'm not sure - we would have to do a post-mortem on it.

The headlines are the PCs are ahead in the polls but the headline is that the Liberals stand to form a government PERFECT!!!

Well, you do understand how that could happen though ?

[Boges]

Well, you do understand how that could happen though ?

Certainly, it's the flaw in the FPTP system.

But no riding to riding analysis has been done as far as I know, so regardless of what the pollsters say, projecting seats counts is reckless reporting.

[Michael Hardner]

Certainly, it's the flaw in the FPTP system.

Flaw or feature ?

The feature might be that once we're through with one form of government, the next flavour has the power to make real change.

But no riding to riding analysis has been done as far as I know, so regardless of what the pollsters say, projecting seats counts is reckless reporting.

Um... really ? Wait. I thought it had. Maybe not, though.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2011/03/methodology-of-projection-model-and.html

That's the methodology. It's pretty loooong, but the first few paragraphs don't engender confidence, IMO. I'll have a look when I have time.

[Boges]

Simple math could reveal why riding to riding or seat projections is faulty. 1,800 is a large poll, I'll concede. Some published polls only canvass 500 people. But divide that by 107 (the number of seats up for grabs) And you're assigning 17 people per riding. No way that's an accurate measure of how each riding will vote.

[Michael Hardner]

Simple math could reveal why riding to riding or seat projections is faulty. 1,800 is a large poll, I'll concede. Some published polls only canvass 500 people. But divide that by 107 (the number of seats up for grabs) And you're assigning 17 people per riding. No way that's an accurate measure of how each riding will vote.

I concur.

[Michael Hardner]

Let's follow how well these folks do by taking the last poll before election day and seeing how it turns out.

[Boges]

Let's follow how well these folks do by taking the last poll before election day and seeing how it turns out.

Which means all this pre-election polling is a giant waste of time. It gives journalists something to write about.

[Michael Hardner]

Maybe but not for certain.

[Michael Hardner]

http://globalnews.ca/video/1311719/tim-hudak-kicks-off-campaign-with-awkward-photo-op

Hudak lost out on that one.

[cybercoma]

Which means all this pre-election polling is a giant waste of time. It gives journalists something to write about.

you need polls over time to identify trends

[Bob Macadoo]

http://globalnews.ca/video/1311719/tim-hudak-kicks-off-campaign-with-awkward-photo-opHudak lost out on that one.

.....each and every one. Time to draft Gazebo Tony.

[Michael Hardner]

.....each and every one. Time to draft Gazebo Tony.

I had to ask a politico what happened. Apparently, he was too obvious in not answering, and didn't have a plan B so ... he just walked away. It strikes me that all 3 leaders may be a little bit bad at politics.

[Bob Macadoo]

I had to ask a politico what happened. Apparently, he was too obvious in not answering, and didn't have a plan B so ... he just walked away. It strikes me that all 3 leaders may be a little bit bad at politics.

Just like his about face on Right to Work......mumble mumble.....scurry away.

[Argus]

Just like his about face on Right to Work......mumble mumble.....scurry away.

He's no great prize, I'll grant you.

But what's the altnerative? Katherine Wynne, who will boldly, forthrightly, and with great sincerity, tell you lies while she screws up the economy even further?

[Big Guy]

I believe that Tim Hudak is really between the rock and the hard place. He was a guaranteed winner during the last campaign and fumbled the ball. He was supposed to be the favorite during this coming election until his “right to work” declaration. I know, I know – he has backed off that but you know it is going to be front and center during the campaign. Anything short of a PC majority and Hudak is history.

Years ago, those Harris heavy hitters fled Ontario when they saw that Harris and then Eves had lost all popular support, saw a Liberal long term majority coming in Ontario and decided to go to Ottawa to ride the Harper coattails to positions of power. Now the Harper political comet is starting to lose its momentum and those Harris favorites will be looking to go back to Ontario to finish their political lives.

John Baird, Tony Clement and Jim Flaherty made a very smart political shift to Ottawa. Jim is gone but Baird and Clement will soon be looking for a job. I do not believe that Baird has a chance at the Ontario PC leadership because he is gay and Ontario is not ready to elect (I said elect) an openly gay leader of a political party..

That leaves Clement. I think that the next Ontario election will result in either a Liberal minority or a PC minority. Either way, Hudak is history and the old Snobolen et al group will be looking to Clement as the next leader.

Edited May 7, 2014 by Big Guy

[Wayward Son]

That leaves Clement. I think that the next Ontario election will result in either a Liberal minority or a PC minority. Either way, Hudak is history and the old Snobolen et al group will be looking to Clement as the next leader.

In 2009 the PCs should have picked Klees as leader instead of Hudak. Klees was a close second the first ballot. Hillier was eliminated and threw his support to Hudak. When Elliot was eliminated after the second round her supporters split between Hudak and Klees, so Hillier's support of Hudak is what won the nomination.

I think that Klees' 2004 leadership platform (which was won by Tory) would not have appealed outside the PC base, but his 2009 leadership platform had unconventional ideas that may have won him wide support (things like university/college/trade school grads being exempt from paying income tax their first 4 years). Klees was also a long-time rebel within the party so he would not have been as associated with Harris/Eves as Hudak is. I think the loss of Klees this election is a blow to the PCs, but if they don't win, and they end up looking for a new leader, I hope that Klees can be convinced to run again.

Edited May 7, 2014 by Wayward Son

[WWWTT]

I believe that Tim Hudak is really between the rock and the hard place. He was a guaranteed winner during the last campaign and fumbled the ball. He was supposed to be the favorite during this coming election until his “right to work” declaration. I know, I know – he has backed off that but you know it is going to be front and center during the campaign. Anything short of a PC majority and Hudak is history.

Years ago, those Harris heavy hitters fled Ontario when they saw that Harris and then Eves had lost all popular support, saw a Liberal long term majority coming in Ontario and decided to go to Ottawa to ride the Harper coattails to positions of power. Now the Harper political comet is starting to lose its momentum and those Harris favorites will be looking to go back to Ontario to finish their political lives.

John Baird, Tony Clement and Jim Flaherty made a very smart political shift to Ottawa. Jim is gone but Baird and Clement will soon be looking for a job. I do not believe that Baird has a chance at the Ontario PC leadership because he is gay and Ontario is not ready to elect (I said elect) an openly gay leader of a political party..

That leaves Clement. I think that the next Ontario election will result in either a Liberal minority or a PC minority. Either way, Hudak is history and the old Snobolen et al group will be looking to Clement as the next leader.

Tony Clement????

That guy has a long losing steak!

He left the progressive conservative party because he couldn't win as one anymore!

He had a hard time federally as well.

Either way, I care less about those guys. Good riddance, the sooner the better!

WWWTT