Extreme Heat/Cold Records in the US

[Keepitsimple]

This information surprised even me - thought for sure that more State records would have been set in the last decade - trumpeted as the warmest on record. In fact, there were only two states that tied earlier heat records - but there were also two states that set brand new cold records. State records seem to be a good indicator of "extreme" temperatures because records are set every day, month and year across the thousands of local readings. Have a look - the asterisk denotes that there was an identical record set earlier. It's interesting, isn't it?

Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_temperature_extremes

Edited January 13, 2014 by Keepitsimple

[Michael Hardner]

It's interesting, isn't it?

Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_temperature_extremes

Very interesting. I'm forever interested in stats - uses and misuses, as well as being intrigued about how people come up with these things.

[waldo]

climate variability exists at all times... you should not expect an absence of record lows; however, in keeping with your U.S. weather station reference:

- a 2009 Meehl et al study (Relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S.) detailed, per the following graphic, "a comparative ratio of record daily highs to record daily lows observed at about 1,800 weather stations in the 48 contiguous United States from January 1950 through September 2009. Each bar shows the proportion of record highs (red) to record lows (blue) for each decade. The 1960s and 1970s saw slightly more record daily lows than highs, but in the last 30 years record highs have increasingly predominated, with the ratio now about two-to-one for the 48 states as a whole".

- an update to that 2009 study inclusive of most of 2013 data:

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[Michael Hardner]

The clever thing, though, is that somebody has conceived of a grouping that can cloud the issue. I imagine that this is funded by one of the disinformation groups but it's still fascinating to imagine that somewhere strategists are brainstorming to come up with statistics that, while misleading, are supported by data.

[GostHacked]

What is the purpose of starting in 1950 for this data? Both those charts don't show much to me. I want to see charts for a couple hundred years, that would be a better indication of trends.

The chart does not show much really. Over all the years, you can average it out and 2011 is a spike, but overall won't make much of a difference in the overall average trend.

I know I know,... I don't know anything, denier ect ect...

[Michael Hardner]

What is the purpose of starting in 1950 for this data? Both those charts don't show much to me. I want to see charts for a couple hundred years, that would be a better indication of trends.

Here you are:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_graph

I applaud your desire to look for wider-reaching data.

[GostHacked]

And know we know that the end of the graph is not accurate, based on their climate models not properly predicting the rate of increase. The people who brought us this chart are also saying that it is not accurate, they made an error.

This climate thing has been shoved down people's throats for a long time, and when the data that they gather does not even really support their positions, people are going to take notice and then the the work/models/scientists need to be scrutinized more.

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/01/09/a-catastrophe-why-100000-dead-bats-rained-down-on-australia-and-a-warning-to-locals/

Watch out for lines like this.

The late arrival of the monsoon in northern Australia, which has a cooling effect, is contributing to the searing heat, said Karly Braganza, the manager of climate monitoring at the Bureau of Meteorology. Global warming also is playing a role, according to Braganza.

So a cooling effect is contributing to a heat wave. Make any sense to you? Contradictions within one single sentence.

[Michael Hardner]

And know we know that the end of the graph is not accurate, based on their climate models not properly predicting the rate of increase. The people who brought us this chart are also saying that it is not accurate, they made an error.

Prediction ? It ends at 2004 - I thought this reported past measurements.

This climate thing has been shoved down people's throats for a long time, and when the data that they gather does not even really support their positions, people are going to take notice and then the the work/models/scientists need to be scrutinized more.

This is past data and is peer-reviewed. There's not much opposition to the idea that temperatures are warming, even on MLW now.

So a cooling effect is contributing to a heat wave. Make any sense to you? Contradictions within one single sentence.

Right, which is why we don't ask - basically - the thermometer manager what's really going on. You misperceive bad MSM reporting for some kind of larger problem or dare I say... conspiracy ?

[waldo]

So a cooling effect is contributing to a heat wave. Make any sense to you? Contradictions within one single sentence.

comprehension much? For whatever worth that quote has, the reference was to "the late arrival" of the "cooling monsoon"

[waldo]

And know we know that the end of the graph is not accurate, based on their climate models not properly predicting the rate of increase. The people who brought us this chart are also saying that it is not accurate, they made an error.

could your quoted response be any more convoluted? Clarify/elaborate on your statements... and provide support for your claims.

[Keepitsimple]

Very interesting. I'm forever interested in stats - uses and misuses, as well as being intrigued about how people come up with these things.

The topic chart would appear to have no biases, cherry-picked summaries and graphs or the like - it simply presents each state's record high and record low temperature - going back into the 1800's. I don't mean to imply that we are not on an overall upward trend since 1850 with various dips, lulls and increases all along the way.....but the recent use of the term "extreme temperatures" seems a bit (a lot actually) overplayed to those of us old enough to have gone through heat waves, ice storms, record colds and record heat. That's what I drew from the State records.

[GostHacked]

comprehension much? For whatever worth that quote has, the reference was to "the late arrival" of the "cooling monsoon"

Please explain?

[Michael Hardner]

The topic chart would appear to have no biases, cherry-picked summaries

Yes, I agree. That's why I'm so fascinated that indeed it does have flaws built in that are so difficult to see.

I don't mean to imply that we are not on an overall upward trend since 1850 with various dips, lulls and increases all along the way.....

I didn't particularly infer that myself either.

[Keepitsimple]

Yes, I agree. That's why I'm so fascinated that indeed it does have flaws built in that are so difficult to see.

What flaws have you managed to see? Looked like pretty basic, neutral information to me.

Edited January 13, 2014 by Keepitsimple

[waldo]

What flaws have you managed to see? Looked like pretty basic, neutral information to me.

hey Simple... would you like an attaboy award for your recycling efforts?

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Did you know that in the US, not a single State temperature record has been broken since 1995? There were a few in the early 90's but most go back a long way. When some of these records start to fall, then we can talk about extremes.

not a single U.S. State temperature record broken since 1995? You need to update your talking points => South Carolina, 113°F - June 29, 2012. But, of course, this is a part of "the denier tactic" that I alluded to earlier. Somehow, in your choice to isolate on the contiguous U.S., you ignore that 2012 was the warmest year on record; that the decade as a whole (2000–2009) was the U.S.' warmest on record.

yours is certainly one way to selectively, in self-service, look at temperature "extremes"... by looking at a single temperature day record and declaring it the benchmark reference. Another more pertinent way to look at temperature within the contiguous U.S., is to look at annual average temperature records:

every one of the lower 48 states experienced an annual temperature average in 2012 that was higher than the 20th century average for that state. Nineteen U.S. states had their highest annual average temperatures on record; 26 others had years that ranked in the top-10 hottest ever.

[Michael Hardner]

What flaws have you managed to see? Looked like pretty basic, neutral information to me.

Well, states aren't exactly random distributions of temperatures, ie. Alaska gets 1 number, and Rhode Island/Connecticut/Mass get 3. Such assertions have also been made about the temperatures used by climate change, too, but those were challenged through literature and investigated. This is just a claim, albeit true, that seems to mean something but doesn't.

There's nothing false in the claim.

[TimG]

Yes, I agree. That's why I'm so fascinated that indeed it does have flaws built in that are so difficult to see.

It is not too hard to understand. The wiki chart is a list of all time highs/lows by state. In a 100 year time series the chances of breaking the all time high or low pretty low. However, if you look at the individual measurement stations you will find that the daily record high/low temperatures are broken quite regularly. There have been studies which claim the number of record highs exceeds the record lows but that is what one would expect with gradual warming.

What we can say about the all time record data is that whatever is happening to temperatures it is not happening very fast - at least not fast enough to move the probability distribution of the all time high/low records.

Your conspiracy peddling is rather silly.

Edited January 13, 2014 by TimG

[Accountability Now]

Well, states aren't exactly random distributions of temperatures, ie. Alaska gets 1 number, and Rhode Island/Connecticut/Mass get 3. .

I agree with you on the statistical level. If it's hot in Rhode Island then it's very likely Mass will be hot too. However, I still find it weird that 23 of the 50 states had their hottest record in the 30s.

[Michael Hardner]

Your conspiracy peddling is rather silly.

In the context of the messenger, perhaps not so much.

[BubberMiley]

Please explain?

The cooling monsoon arrived late so it stayed hot longer. You found that difficult to understand and, by your nature, figured there must be a conspiracy.

[TimG]

I agree with you on the statistical level. If it's hot in Rhode Island then it's very likely Mass will be hot too. However, I still find it weird that 23 of the 50 states had their hottest record in the 30s.

It is well known that the 30s were as hot as today in the US. The alarmists don't like it when people point that out because it undermines their 'warming is unprecedented' narrative. Edited January 13, 2014 by TimG

[waldo]

It is well known that the 30s were as hot as today in the US. The alarmists don't like it when people point that out because it undermines their 'warming is unprecedented' narrative.

no - but by the by... what do you attribute "30s" warming to? Try..... increased solar activity and lower volcanic activity. If you'd care to dispute this, please step-up, hey!

[waldo]

following up on the earlier study reference I provided (U.S. National focus), global references:

- per NASA GISS surface temperature data (1880-2010): Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperatures --- Dim Coumou, Alexander Robinson, Stefan Rahmstorf

[Michael Hardner]

no - but by the by... what do you attribute "30s" warming to? Try..... increased solar activity and lower volcanic activity. If you'd care to dispute this, please step-up, hey!

Could that also have been the reason for the MWP ?

[TimG]

Could that also have been the reason for the MWP?

This most bizarre assumption in this entire topic is the assumption that climate is static unless something "causes" it to change. Chaotic systems change because of internal variability. The only question is where the boundaries of the system are. I have not seen any compelling evidence that shows that the current warming is outside of those bounds (despite the fact that CO2 should, in theory, the be cause of some of the warming). Edited January 14, 2014 by TimG