2015 Federal Election Prediction

[WWWTT]

was that 'Orange Crush' made up of typical swing voters... or a rather one-time anomoly? Cause like, who crushed the crush?

Polls are still giving the NDP the same support levels (within margin of error)

But that could change come campaign time.

WWWTT

[WWWTT]

Quebec's Orange Crush was probably an anomaly. I can't see them supporting Mulcair like they did Layton. And in any case, the problem for the Liberals was that Layton brutally destroyed Ignatieff in the campaign by pointing out how much time he was away from Parliament. It doesn't matter how much you F up in Parliament, people don't want to get the impression that you're not doing anything there. Layton's narrative was also helped by the Tories campaign saying Ignatieff doesn't give a crap about Canada. Well, not showing up to work proved it. So people went for the alternative and that was the NDP. Quebec this time will swing to Trudeau, where they've traditionally supported the Grits as their non-separatist party of choice. Stephen Harper seems completely out of touch with Québec politics. He'll continue to take a beating there and it doesn't matter. He has proven for the first time in history that you don't need Québec to win. With gerrymandering and the new seat counts, he'll ensure it.

From what I remember that latest poll puts the NDP in the lead in Quebec.

Unless you can show a poll that puts the liberals ahead, I don't believe it.

WWWTT

[PIK]

You're both being really stupid.

Worrying about margin of error over whether the numbers are actually accurate is like saying "yeah, we lost, but we covered the spread." Margin of error is a useful metric for tracking where you went wrong. If your numbers are literally more accurate than the other guys', he did NOT predict better just because he covered his MOE.

Funny how polls are gold if they show trudeau is up there. But once it changes..... Edited April 24, 2014 by PIK

[waldo]

Polls are still giving the NDP the same support levels (within margin of error)

But that could change come campaign time.

WWWTT

no, they are not... and have not for the better part of a year! This explains much on your part...

From what I remember that latest poll puts the NDP in the lead in Quebec.

Unless you can show a poll that puts the liberals ahead, I don't believe it.

WWWTT

see polls presented in this thread; see the latest, see here:

[waldo]

Funny how polls are gold if they show trudeau is up there. But once it changes.....

funny how a year's worth of polls showing Harper Conservatives are down are meaningless. But once a single poll, an outlier poll, comes forward... Harper Conservative supporters really like that single poll. Why they even start new threads with 'wild excitement' claiming in the thread title, "Voters are starting to pay attention".

[Bryan]

Man I find it funny that you clearly do not see that these polls only prove that there is a "swing vote" out there that jumps ship on the drop of a hat!

We saw this swing vote having an impact that gave Harper his majority in the first place!

WWWTT

I never said anything of the kind. I said that A-R's polling in the 2011 election most accurately predicted the final outcome. Because it it did.

This particular poll absolutely could be just an outlier -- I made no comment to the contrary.

[waldo]

I never said anything of the kind. I said that A-R's polling in the 2011 election most accurately predicted the final outcome. Because it it did.

keep telling yourself margin of error means nothing in polling! Again, when factoring pp margin of error, the Nanos Research poll was... is... the most accurate final prediction for the 2011 election.

[Bryan]

keep telling yourself margin of error means nothing in polling! Again, when factoring pp margin of error, the Nanos Research poll was... is... the most accurate final prediction for the 2011 election.

Margin of error measures confidence, not accuracy. You can have a big MOE when you're not sure of the data, and still come in bang on. Get back to be when you learn what you're talking about.

[guyser]

Margin of error measures confidence, not accuracy.

Margin of error is irrelevant

Is

Isnt

Is

Isnt

Get back to be when you learn us when you decide what side of your mouth you are talking out of.

[WWWTT]

no, they are not... and have not for the better part of a year! This explains much on your part...

see polls presented in this thread; see the latest, see here:

LOL!

This coming from a single poll without a date!

http://www.angusreidglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/21.04.2014-ARG-National-Voter-Intention.pdf

Here's the comment from the link:

In spite of a majority win for the Quebec Liberals in April’s provincial election, at the federal level, it is the NDP that continues to lead all four parties (36%), well more than two-to-one over the CPC (14%).

And here's a recent from 308.

http://ri.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=A0LEViD2bFlTrGQA_gMXFwx.;_ylu=X3oDMTByMG04Z2o2BHNlYwNzcgRwb3MDMQRjb2xvA2JmMQR2dGlkAw--/RV=2/RE=1398398326/RO=10/RU=http%3a%2f%2fwww.threehundredeight.com%2fp%2fcanada.html/RK=0/RS=1y82r5OeypHlzyJaIFGlQfxpkpk-

Don't know where your getting your numbers from?

But clearly there is strong support to the NDP in Quebec!

Maybe you can go back and try a little harder to support your case, or better yet give it up buddy!

WWWTT

[waldo]

Margin of error measures confidence, not accuracy. You can have a big MOE when you're not sure of the data, and still come in bang on. Get back to be when you learn what you're talking about.

it reflects sample size as well. Like I said, you're quite prepared to work a differential number based on respective per party prediction numbers... but you're not willing to acknowledge that the AR poll did not meet it's expressed margin of error in all of those respective per party prediction numbers. The margin of error you simply want to 'wish away' describes how well the polling sample size reflects upon the greater population.

Edited April 24, 2014 by waldo

[Bryan]

Is

Isnt

Is

Isnt

Get back to be when you learn us when you decide what side of your mouth you are talking out of.

Quoting me out of context, awesome.

MOE is irrelevant in a discussion over who's final polls most accurately predicted the actual voting result.

[waldo]

LOL!

This coming from a single poll without a date!

Maybe you can go back and try a little harder to support your case, or better yet give it up buddy!

educate yourself! It's not a single poll... it's an aggregate poll of all available polls. In fact, it's the most recent prior aggregate poll from 308. You know... the same polling reference company you just provided. More pointedly, if you actually bothered to read your own linked reference, 308 attributes that NDP Quebec rise number to this very 'single poll' AR result... the outlier result that has now skewed the entire aggregate result.

[WWWTT]

educate yourself! It's not a single poll... it's an aggregate poll of all available polls. In fact, it's the most recent prior aggregate poll from 308. You know... the same polling reference company you just provided. More pointedly, if you actually bothered to read your own linked reference, 308 attributes that NDP Quebec rise number to this very 'single poll' AR result... the outlier result that has now skewed the entire aggregate result.

Oh you mean by I should have eliminated the date???

308 is one of the more pro liberal polls out there and they don't provide any links to the polls that they claim they are averaging, so you have to take their word for it.

Only posted it to prove that you are using old data! The one I showed a much closer split (well within margin of error) between the liberals and NDP! Clearly you're using old data and intentionally eliminate to date to fabricate!

Also posted more than one poll, so in other words, go back and do some homework, maybe you'll get it right this time. But that's a big??????

WWWTT

[cybercoma]

From what I remember that latest poll puts the NDP in the lead in Quebec.

Unless you can show a poll that puts the liberals ahead, I don't believe it.

WWWTT

I'm just throwing stuff around. Nobody knows what's going to happen until the campaign anyway. Like I said, if one thing is certain, it's that Canadians tend to make up their minds during the campaign.

[cybercoma]

Funny how polls are gold if they show trudeau is up there. But once it changes.....

You know that really has nothing to do with anything. Waldo posted a graphic showing you exactly why this poll is problematic. I also conceded that it may be a trend beginning, but we won't know until a couple more polls come out. You don't know if this is legit and I don't know if it's an anomaly. One thing is for certain though, there's more evidence indicating that it's an anomaly (take a look at the chart waldo posted from 308 again) for now.

[WWWTT]

I'm just throwing stuff around. Nobody knows what's going to happen until the campaign anyway. Like I said, if one thing is certain, it's that Canadians tend to make up their minds during the campaign.

Not necessarily true.

I believe that there are a certain percentage that your comment holds true for.

What that percentage is, I'm not really sure?

Is it 10% of actual voters that may be persuaded by a televised debate? Or is it 20% that will change their vote if one party/candidate makes an exceptional performance during the campaign? (I'm only guessing at these numbers so please don't hold me to them if they do not prove right)

I'm sure all the parties are into this very heavily and spend an exuberant amount of time and money with this!

I'm also sure that there are solid core voters that tend to slowly change(if ever) parties over several elections.

WWWTT

[waldo]

Oh you mean by I should have eliminated the date???

308 is one of the more pro liberal polls out there and they don't provide any links to the polls that they claim they are averaging, so you have to take their word for it.

Only posted it to prove that you are using old data! The one I showed a much closer split (well within margin of error) between the liberals and NDP! Clearly you're using old data and intentionally eliminate to date to fabricate!

Also posted more than one poll, so in other words, go back and do some homework, maybe you'll get it right this time. But that's a big??????

WWWTT

why keep on with your idiocy... emphasizing "an eliminated date"? Again, the poll was the latest prior 308 poll... if you knew anything you'd recognize that poll comes out regularly; typically monthy depending on the activity of other polling companies. But since you didn't even know the aggregate makeup nature of the poll, is it any wonder you're in full bluster mode?

308 isn't "liberal"... isn't "conservative"... it's a company providing an aggregate representation of all other available polls. If you actually spend a few cycles and INVESTIGATE, you'll find the complete methodology and component makeup of all the respective aggregate poll summations presented.

geezaz! I didn't use old data... it was the most current poll at the time I presented it. You asked for examples... I pointed you to this very thread and provided the most recent prior example. In fact, if you actually LOOK, you'll see the link I provided you includes both the 308 aggregate as well as one of it's component makeup polls (from EKOS) - as I said in that post: "the latest 308 aggregation and the recent representative EKOS poll within that overall aggregate:"

like I said, educate yourself and save yourself further embarassment!

Edited April 24, 2014 by waldo

[waldo]

I'm sure all the parties are into this very heavily and spend an exuberant amount of time and money with this!

and there's a year's worth of aggregate polling from the same company that you just linked/referenced... that shows the significant drop in NDP support in Quebec. More pointedly, as an aggregate, there's a year's worth of polls from companies making up that aggregate that speak to that decline in NDP support in Quebec. You can either choose to answer my question on 'what crushed the Orange crush'... or you can take solace in that single latest 308 poll that, by 308's own words, has the Quebec numbers (the NDP rise) influenced (aka skewed) by the outlier AR poll being discussed here/elsewhere.

[WWWTT]

and there's a year's worth of aggregate polling from the same company that you just linked/referenced... that shows the significant drop in NDP support in Quebec. More pointedly, as an aggregate, there's a year's worth of polls from companies making up that aggregate that speak to that decline in NDP support in Quebec. You can either choose to answer my question on 'what crushed the Orange crush'... or you can take solace in that single latest 308 poll that, by 308's own words, has the Quebec numbers (the NDP rise) influenced (aka skewed) by the outlier AR poll being discussed here/elsewhere.

Hey buddy, I wasn't even commenting on your post!

I was discussing the strength of the NDP in Quebec with cybercoma!

And from what I saw, the trend clearly shows that the honeymoon with Justin is over and polls were returning to more how they looked like before after the NDP cleaning house in Quebec.

I give a rats ass about your "questions" and "polls without a date" (which you still haven't backed up yet).

Go find another poster that has some interest in debating with you!

WWWTT

[waldo]

Hey buddy,

And from what I saw, the trend clearly shows that the honeymoon with Justin is over and polls were returning to more how they looked like before after the NDP cleaning house in Quebec.

hey buddy, a, as you say, "TREND" isn't determined by a single poll, outlier or otherwise. Like I said, educate yourself.

.

[WWWTT]

hey buddy, a, as you say, "TREND" isn't determined by a single poll, outlier or otherwise. Like I said, educate yourself.

.

Still no "dates" yet hey?

Ya those "dates" really get in the way of fabrication hey!

Just because you say "educate yourself" does not mean that you are good to use OLD DATA as if it was recent as you implied!

Not really into backing up your opinion are you, hey waldo?

WWWTT

[waldo]

Still no "dates" yet hey?

Ya those "dates" really get in the way of fabrication hey!

Just because you say "educate yourself" does not mean that you are good to use OLD DATA as if it was recent as you implied!

Not really into backing up your opinion are you, hey waldo?

WWWTT

nothing fabricated... how desperate are you? As I said, when posted, it was the most current 308 aggregate poll available. The reference you so objected to, so bristled against, was a reference to the prior year's poll results. You asked for an example... I pointed you to the most relevant/recent post within this thread - again, the one that referenced the most current prior 308 poll aggregate... and also the most recent prior EKOS poll within that aggregate.

of course, I could have linked you to this one... an earlier post to the one you take such exception to. Oh, will you accept this one... or is it another of your claimed fabrications?

[guyser]

Quoting me out of context, awesome.

That would suck if it were true.

But we know better....dont we?

[Shady]

Arguing over polls now is about as pointless of an exercise as possible.