192 Seats for the liberals wow.

[AlienB]

I was really suprised to find this poll

44% majority for Liberals according to the latest poll.

20% for NDP..

First time i have seen a poll with the Conservatives under 30% support in some time. They are polling under where the NDP were polling prior to Trudeau's election. Stephen Harper's CPC is trailing by close to 10 points 27% only.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/05/23/trudeaus-liberals-hit-historic-highs-as-senate-scandal-has-drastic-effect-on-tories-poll/

I know still what 2 years away (just under 2 and a half years) not too much room left to fall, I'd just be suprised if people actually were waking up. I know someone in Quebec claimed the English were waking up, but can this really be?

Perhaps some of it will blow over but I can't see votes going from the CPC to the NDP is that possible?

A better question might be, what can a Liberal government do sitting on its hands for 3 years waiting for Senator's to die or get terminal illnesses and other personal tragedies.

Oh but wait the CPC wants an elected senate right, so would that involve everyone vacating their seats and standing for election? What is Stephen Harper waiting for? When will they get another chance for a super majority like this.

These will be the last senators be replaced sans new scandals should the ship stay affloat until the next 'fixed' election.

Marjory LeBreton

Suzanne Duplessis

Asha Seth

Noël Kinsella

Andrée Champagne

Donald Oliver

Fernand Robichaud (Lib)

Catherine Callbeck (Lib)

Pierre de Bané (Lib)

Only three more seats for the conservatives to gain without any issues arising such as deaths, illness etc..

That is 63 seats of 105. meaning only about 10 senators to be replaced after the next election before it is parity again assuming a Liberal election victory.

That's only about 7 or 8 years until the senate can be brought back to parity and not be a conservative majority. That's only 5 years after the next election or two elections from now. Here is looking at 2020-2021 when the conservatives loose their legislative veto in the senate should they not return to power in the house in the next two elections.

Edited May 24, 2013 by AlienB

[Moonlight Graham]

It's not really fair to look at any polling like this during a scandal, especially if the scandal negatively affects the Cons given that Harper can call an election at any time between now and when his limit it up, and guaranteed he'll call it during a politically advantageous time for the CPC (or disadvantageous for the NDP/Liberals).

[AlienB]

It's not really fair to look at any polling like this during a scandal, especially if the scandal negatively affects the Cons given that Harper can call an election at any time between now and when his limit it up, and guaranteed he'll call it during a politically advantageous time for the CPC (or disadvantageous for the NDP/Liberals).

No he can't. There is the fixed election law remember. He'd have to change that law and I think that might be negatively viewed for him to do that.

"In 2007, the Parliament of Canada passed a law which introduced fixed-date elections at the federal level."

source: http://www.parl.gc.ca/ParlInfo/Compilations/ProvinceTerritory/ProvincialFixedElections.aspx

The GG is a separate entity from the PM, they if acting as GG take advice on behalf of the Queen from all privy Councillors, atleast that is the precedent that was the basis of the Privy Council on its inception and onward. They don't have to obey the PMs advice, they act as counsel as acting regent, and can consult further if required with the Monarch. This republican notion that the GG is just a rubber stamp is false and continues to be false. Rule of Law is suppose to be respected in Canada. The PM is a political adviser, they are not the head of the executive, they are effectively a general manager, the GG is the President and the Queen is the CEO in corporate terms. Various Ministers are managing directors of various departments, while they have actual managers run the departments. Various agents are also managers of various organs. This notion the PM is the beginning and end is just republican propaganda. There are reservation that make the citizens able to defend their right to a free and democratic society, and that is through providing legal protections to individuals against abuse by the state by rule of force as opposed to rule of law. The PM cannot call their own elections, they can request them but not according to the elections act, and the Governor general has at their privilege the ability to grant that request or not.\

Powers of Governor General preserved

• 56.1 (1) Nothing in this section affects the powers of the Governor General, including the power to dissolve Parliament at the Governor General’s discretion.

• Marginal note:Election dates

  (2) Subject to subsection (1), each general election must be held on the third Monday of October in the fourth calendar year following polling day for the last general election, with the first general election after this section comes into force being held on Monday, October 19, 2009.

• 2007, c. 10, s. 1.

Marginal note:Alternate day

• 56.2 (1) If the Chief Electoral Officer is of the opinion that a Monday that would otherwise be polling day under subsection 56.1(2) is not suitable for that purpose, including by reason of its being in conflict with a day of cultural or religious significance or a provincial or municipal election, the Chief Electoral Officer may choose another day in accordance with subsection (4) and shall recommend to the Governor in Council that polling day be that other day.

• Marginal note:Publication of recommendation

  (2) If the Chief Electoral Officer recommends an alternate day for a general election in accordance with subsection (1), he or she shall without delay publish in the Canada Gazette notice of the day recommended.

• Marginal note:Making and publication of order

  (3) If the Governor in Council accepts the recommendation, the Governor in Council shall make an order to that effect. The order must be published without delay in the Canada Gazette.

• Marginal note:Limitation

  (4) The alternate day must be either the Tuesday immediately following the Monday that would otherwise be polling day or the Monday of the following week.

• Marginal note:Timing of proclamation

  (5) An order under subsection (3) shall not be made after August 1 in the year in which the general election is to be held.

• 2007, c. 10, s. 1.

Edited May 24, 2013 by AlienB

[TimG]

The BC election should remind people that midterm polling numbers don't mean much.

That said, the country wants change but Trudeau has to cater to the right of center vote.

If he decides to compete with the NDP for left wing votes then the conservatives will likely win again.

Edited May 24, 2013 by TimG

[BubberMiley]

The conservatives have been such a corrupt train wreck, I'm surprised their numbers are as high as they are.

[Newfoundlander]

No he can't. There is the fixed election law remember. He'd have to change that law and I think that might be negatively viewed for him to do that.

"In 2007, the Parliament of Canada passed a law which introduced fixed-date elections at the federal level."[/size]

source: http://www.parl.gc.ca/ParlInfo/Compilations/ProvinceTerritory/ProvincialFixedElections.aspx

The GG is a separate entity from the PM, they if acting as GG take advice on behalf of the Queen from all privy Councillors, atleast that is the precedent that was the basis of the Privy Council on its inception and onward. They don't have to obey the PMs advice, they act as counsel as acting regent, and can consult further if required with the Monarch. This republican notion that the GG is just a rubber stamp is false and continues to be false. Rule of Law is suppose to be respected in Canada. The PM is a political adviser, they are not the head of the executive, they are effectively a general manager, the GG is the President and the Queen is the CEO in corporate terms. Various Ministers are managing directors of various departments, while they have actual managers run the departments. Various agents are also managers of various organs. This notion the PM is the beginning and end is just republican propaganda. There are reservation that make the citizens able to defend their right to a free and democratic society, and that is through providing legal protections to individuals against abuse by the state by rule of force as opposed to rule of law. The PM cannot call their own elections, they can request them but not according to the elections act, and the Governor general has at their privilege the ability to grant that request or not.\

He called an election in 2008 despite there being a fixed term election law in place. He has his loopholes, plus a majority to change laws.

[ReeferMadness]

I'm not sure the Libs would be much better but they can't possibly be any worse. And I think that most of the country is arriving at the same conclusion.

[Moonlight Graham]

No he can't. There is the fixed election law remember. He'd have to change that law and I think that might be negatively viewed for him to do that.

"In 2007, the Parliament of Canada passed a law which introduced fixed-date elections at the federal level."

source: http://www.parl.gc.ca/ParlInfo/Compilations/ProvinceTerritory/ProvincialFixedElections.aspx

The GG is a separate entity from the PM, they if acting as GG take advice on behalf of the Queen from all privy Councillors, atleast that is the precedent that was the basis of the Privy Council on its inception and onward. They don't have to obey the PMs advice, they act as counsel as acting regent, and can consult further if required with the Monarch. This republican notion that the GG is just a rubber stamp is false and continues to be false. Rule of Law is suppose to be respected in Canada. The PM is a political adviser, they are not the head of the executive, they are effectively a general manager, the GG is the President and the Queen is the CEO in corporate terms. Various Ministers are managing directors of various departments, while they have actual managers run the departments. Various agents are also managers of various organs. This notion the PM is the beginning and end is just republican propaganda. There are reservation that make the citizens able to defend their right to a free and democratic society, and that is through providing legal protections to individuals against abuse by the state by rule of force as opposed to rule of law. The PM cannot call their own elections, they can request them but not according to the elections act, and the Governor general has at their privilege the ability to grant that request or not.\

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Canada#Fixed_Dates

Although, under Section 4 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, each parliament has a maximum term of five years after the return of the writs of the last election, on November 6, 2006, the Parliament of Canada passed Bill C-16, An Act to Amend the Canada Elections Act. It requires that each general election is to take place on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the previous poll, starting with October 19, 2009.

Nevertheless, the law does not curtail the power of the governor general to dissolve parliament at any time, meaning the prime minister may advise such a move whenever he or she feels is prudent.

Also, how many times has the GG gone against the advice of the PM regarding dissolving Parliament and calling an election?

Edited May 25, 2013 by Moonlight Graham

[g_bambino]

No he can't. There is the fixed election law remember.

This republican notion that the GG is just a rubber stamp is false and continues to be false. Rule of Law is suppose to be respected in Canada. The PM is a political adviser, they are not the head of the executive, they are effectively a general manager... The PM cannot call their own elections, they can request them but not according to the elections act, and the Governor general has at their privilege the ability to grant that request or not.\

The so-called "fixed election law" makes no limits on the Royal Prerogative, which includes the ability to dissolve parlaiment and drop the writs for an election. Those prerogative powers are almost always exercised on the advice of the prime minister; only if the advice is blatantly unconstitutional or threatens the continuation of lawful government can the governor general refuse; and nothing in the Elections Act makes it illegal for the prime minister to advise the govenror general to call an election before the prescribed date. For the governor general to refuse such advice more than six months following the previous election would be tantamount to reversing 300 years of conventional evolution and a total disregard for the core operational concept of responsible government, as well as a clear indication that he no longer feels the prime minister can guide him in his exercise of his executive powers, which would invariably lead either to the prme minister advising the Queen to replace the governor general (which would not only drag the sovereign into the mess but also take time during which the executive would be paralysed) or to the prime minister's resignation. In other words: not a good idea.

[August1991]

It's not really fair to look at any polling like this during a scandal, especially if the scandal negatively affects the Cons given that Harper can call an election at any time between now and when his limit it up, and guaranteed he'll call it during a politically advantageous time for the CPC (or disadvantageous for the NDP/Liberals).

The poll was taken in the midst of the scandal. Many LIV were not paying attention. For example, in Quebec few people noticed this.

Yet, the poll in Quebec is remarkable: The federal Tories would be lucky to keep one seat (Maxim Bernier) while Couillard would likely win a majority.

-----

I may be wrong but I think that this Duffy scandal will hit the federal Tories hard. It has touched their base in English Canada. I would expect that in the future, the federal Tories under Harper will continue to poll under 30, and as low as 25.

This $90,000 personal cheque will cost Harper dearly. It is a terrible political miscalculation. It is in the order of Nixon's: "I gave them a sword... "

-----

Harper has two hopes/fears:

1) Like a bridge player playing trump, he hopes for a fair break: between the NDP and the Liberals. So far, it appears that the break is uneven, the Liberals have stronger cards.

2) How will Ontario's immigrant suburbs react to this scandal, and Justin Trudeau's name? With Duffy, Harper looks like another corrupt third-world dictator who buys his way to power using other people's money.

Edited May 26, 2013 by August1991

[AlienB]

He called an election in 2008 despite there being a fixed term election law in place. He has his loopholes, plus a majority to change laws.

No he didn't call the election.

He discussed with the Governor General and after some time he convinced the governor general to call the election. This in part because an alternative government was suggested by the opposition. Or whatever other reasons the public did not get to hear as that very important discussion has not been made public.

Its funny how you republicans like to reinvent the Canadian legal system and authority structure to meet with your idolization of America bemusing the PM to be the chief executive able to leap tall buildings in a single bound..

Effectively the government killed itself and if not for the NDP and bloc supporting that motion there probably would not have been that 2008 election.

The liberals had "bemused" confidence in the conservative government, or parliament.

I can picture the PM meeting with the GG early, well the liberals are polling less than a majority this week I'd like to have the election because the public is drunk. We forecast we won't remove the deficit and people might start realizing the deficit is not a french word for public debt, its the amount added to the debt.

GG: sounds about right to me how bout you ring that bell and the Chief electoral officer will be right up with the writ and this time I'll let you roll the magic 8 ball when it narrows down the date.\

I should remind you that the PM is not a publicaly elected post and has nothing to do with democracy, even less so than the US where there is an electoral college. None the less the GG can refuse to call an election. The fixed election law is sort of a little redundant as a democractic tool, and actually quite frankly y'all s rationality is very undemocratic, so I'm quite shocked you would be egging for dictorial powers. You really are lessor people for doing so.

It is a little assinine to have a fixed election law that is used to jockey power to the PM as opposed to remove political instability in parliament.

Since May 2007, the Canada Elections Act provides that a general election be held on a fixed date: the third Monday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous general election. As the last election took place on May 2, 2011, the next fixed election date is October 19, 2015. The Chief Electoral Officer may recommend an alternate day for a fixed-date general election if the date set for polling is not suitable for that purpose.

Election dates

(2) Subject to subsection (1), each general election must be held on the third Monday of October in the fourth calendar year following polling day for the last general election, with the first general election after this section comes into force being held on Monday, October 19, 2009.

S.C. 2007, c. 10, s. 1.

Source Elections Canada,

so what law is this early election being run under, lets fix another conservative election victory law?

Does the chat go. hey gg I really want to have an election rigged so we can publically ruin the oppositions street cred, can we set this thing for the next open date and get some marked ballots printed off in time to line the boxes with?

It is just insulting to just basically ssay " yeah well get more votes if we call it early... " ding dong.

more votes for the incumbent, should I put the RCMP on notice?

Edited May 26, 2013 by AlienB

[Sandy MacNab]

I'm not sure the Libs would be much better but they can't possibly be any worse. And I think that most of the country is arriving at the same conclusion.

I am sure the Liberals can be and have been worse. Go back and look at the scandals under Cretch.

[cybercoma]

It's grossly premature to be making seat projections and polling data that exists is terribly inaccurate at predicting seat counts anyway. The entire premise of this thread is a non-starter.

[jbg]

He called an election in 2008 despite there being a fixed term election law in place. He has his loopholes, plus a majority to change laws.

The law implicitly doesn't apply to a minority government. Otherwise the non-government parties could withdraw confidence at any time, whereas the Government would be helpless to do likewise. In all but name the Parliament, pre-September 2008 was demonstrating no confidence.

[jbg]

No he didn't call the election.

He discussed with the Governor General and after some time he convinced the governor general to call the election. This in part because an alternative government was suggested by the opposition. Or whatever other reasons the public did not get to hear as that very important discussion has not been made public.

Dead wrong.

In September 2008 he indeed called an election which was, if I recall, held in October 2008. The CPC increased its seat count from, working off memory, 128 to 143. In December, in the wake of a "fiscal update" that included abolishing public funding for campaigns, the Liberal Party, NDP and, subliminally the Bloc entered into a coalition agreement and were apparently preparing to approach the GG about forming a government. Harper advised that the GG prorogue Parliament, which she did. The coalition deal fell apart.

I am not precise on the dates here since I am working off memory, not Google or Wikipedia, and my memory is usually poor.

[AlienB]

Dead wrong.

In September 2008 he indeed called an election which was, if I recall, held in October 2008. The CPC increased its seat count from, working off memory, 128 to 143. In December, in the wake of a "fiscal update" that included abolishing public funding for campaigns, the Liberal Party, NDP and, subliminally the Bloc entered into a coalition agreement and were apparently preparing to approach the GG about forming a government. Harper advised that the GG prorogue Parliament, which she did. The coalition deal fell apart.

I am not precise on the dates here since I am working off memory, not Google or Wikipedia, and my memory is usually poor.

Go back to America Yankee.

The GG most certainly called the election.

GTFO

[jbg]

Go back to America Yankee.

The GG most certainly called the election.

GTFO

OK, I should have edited my post to say that the GG, on Harper's advice, called the election. That doesn't change the fact that the coalition effort post-ceded the fall 2008 election, whoever called it.

Note, I didn't respond with a personal attack.

[MadX]

I'm surprised support for the NDP is way down, I wonder what they did wrong to lose all that support.

[AlienB]

I'm surprised support for the NDP is way down, I wonder what they did wrong to lose all that support.

I'm pretty sure Mulcair did not give birth to Trudeau so probably not all too much.

Quebecois are religious folks, following thier Messiah to lead them out of the path of darkness is in their blood.

Edited May 29, 2013 by AlienB

[UofGPolitico]

I think before this senate thing is over the Liberals may fall back down to earth. I think Mulcair has finally found something to latch onto and shine.... his performance in QP this week has been amazing. Justin has hardly made a dent. Comments that the senate favours Quebec does not help either.

[VanRob]

The Liberals will most certainly fall back down to earth. The Conservatives will easily recoup to their traditional level of support in the polls (36-40). In Western Canada particularly, Liberal polling numbers are inflated to a level that is frankly silly. The Conservatives are in the midst of a huge scandal...just wait till it blows over. Also, once the Supreme Court comes back with its answers to the senate questions (probably next year) the Conservatives will announce and quickly put in the works a much-awaited reform plan. This whole senate thing could actually end up working in their favor in the long run. The Liberals are an empty shell of a party and are relying solely on Trudeau who is largely void of substance. The West and suburban Ontario will tire of him quicker than others but that's all the Conservatives need to happen to be sitting pretty for next election. I fully expect a re-elected Stephen Harper in 2015 and I would not at all be surprised if the Conservatives move up past the 40% mark.

[AlienB]

The Liberals will most certainly fall back down to earth. The Conservatives will easily recoup to their traditional level of support in the polls (36-40). In Western Canada particularly, Liberal polling numbers are inflated to a level that is frankly silly. The Conservatives are in the midst of a huge scandal...just wait till it blows over. Also, once the Supreme Court comes back with its answers to the senate questions (probably next year) the Conservatives will announce and quickly put in the works a much-awaited reform plan. This whole senate thing could actually end up working in their favor in the long run. The Liberals are an empty shell of a party and are relying solely on Trudeau who is largely void of substance. The West and suburban Ontario will tire of him quicker than others but that's all the Conservatives need to happen to be sitting pretty for next election. I fully expect a re-elected Stephen Harper in 2015 and I would not at all be surprised if the Conservatives move up past the 40% mark.

I guess that other 60% are the ones who said he shouldn't run again.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/01/04/stephen-harper-polls-nanos-ipsos-reid_n_2409443.html

Of course things like minor election fraud really are just a brain fart

right

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/05/25/305314/confirmed-canada-2011-polls-fraudulent/

Hey if the Iranian press doesn't like him, he is a win for Canadians right.. hold on are those facts true?

heres one from the Hill Times...

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2013/06/03/tory-mps-slam-federal-court%E2%80%99s-findings-of-fraud-%E2%80%98concerted-campaign%E2%80%99-to/34881

I'm sure that all the hardcore conservatives out there love the fact that the conservatives Quebec rump is said to have no chance of survival. http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/05/31/harper-conservatives-quebec-poll_n_3365852.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-politics

Hey maybe you are right, maybe not, when is that next budget due?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/31/us-politics-poll-idUSBRE94U0S920130531

This shows the Liberals at 44% same poll? How long do scandals last?

Wow an 8% drop in one week? But hold on how is it the consevatives are still dropping in both polls?

Lets see what happens in the next one...

I never realized the media masses just said a boo or yeah cause they like to be with the crowd. My gosh a gerbel could probably get elected with enough media support if this were true.

The people have chosen you oh furry one.

http://i1142.photobucket.com/albums/n602/devlog/sleepy.jpg

opposition: oh damn you Furry, you and your teflon deflection of our questions with that smug look and silence how is this democracy?

government whip, there is no such obstruction of parliamentary process here, Furry won with a super majority of votes so he doesn't need to listen to your nonsense about non democratic process in the manner of its responses.

Edited June 4, 2013 by AlienB

[Sandy MacNab]

I think before this senate thing is over the Liberals may fall back down to earth. I think Mulcair has finally found something to latch onto and shine.... his performance in QP this week has been amazing. Justin has hardly made a dent. Comments that the senate favours Quebec does not help either.

He is setting the stage for the Liberals' new policy of complete transparency.

[AlienB]

apparently the latest polling reports are saying at his midway he has suffered the third largest marjority government drop in polls in Canada's history only outdone buy mulrooney/mulrooney and I'm not sure if the other was Louis St. Laurent. It was a globe and mail article though.

Edited June 14, 2013 by AlienB

[PIK]

Poll today says harper has moved up in the poll and would have a minority gov today. The honeymoon is over for the boy wonder, people are starting to realize what a flake this kid is. Take away his last name and what have you got , a part time drama teacher. lol