The Rumoured Summer Cabinet Shuffle... who is in? Who is out?

[UofGPolitico]

So most major pundits are predicting a government "reset" this summer with a revamped cabinet and most likely a new speech from the throne to open up the fall session. So, what changes will be made? I have read some articles suggesting Harper will start bringing more women into his cabinet and into more high profile positions.

Candice Bergen (formeally Hoeppner) I think will be one of those women, most likely taking Vic Toews spot as Minister of Public Safety. Vic probably is not going to run again, and given his troubles in that portfolio, he will most likely be demoted or maybe even shuffled entirely out.

Joan Crockatt didn't run in that hot by-election just to be a backbencher. I think she is definitely going to get into cabinet, the question is what position? Probably something midlevel to start.

Shelly Glover seems like a likely candidate to get a cabinet seat too given how visible she has been since 2011 as parliamentary secretary to the Minister of Finance.

In terms of whose out, I already mentioned Vic Toews, but I think the axe will finally fall on Peter MacKay. I mean, he will remain in cabinet most likely, but he will lose defence. Peter Kent I think may be on the chopping block, but with the Harper government's dminished focus on the envrionment, they are maybe fine with him there. Jim Flaherty is a possibility, but only by choice. He has that position for as long as he wants it as long as Harper is PM. Flaherty probably won't run again in 2015 though and then there is the health concerns.

Any other thoughts?

[Newfoundlander]

I agree with Candice Bergen and Shelley Glover as ones who may get promoted, though both are from Manitoba. I'd prefer to see Glover go into cabinet than Bergen, but either would be better than Toews.

I doubt Joan Crockatt will go into cabinet. Michele Rempell is a far more deserving person for a cabinet post than Crockatt and there can only be so many from Calgary in cabinet. She could get something though.

Eve Adams, Kellie Leitch and Chris Alexander are also good choices. Ontario, particularly the GTA, have a lot of great people who could go into cabinet but sadly your region trumps your résumé. It will also depend on how many people retire.

Steven Blaney I think is someone who could be a good Qubec Lieutenant and Environment Minister.

[UofGPolitico]

I agree with Candice Bergen and Shelley Glover as ones who may get promoted, though both are from Manitoba. I'd prefer to see Glover go into cabinet than Bergen, but either would be better than Toews.

I doubt Joan Crockatt will go into cabinet. Michele Rempell is a far more deserving person for a cabinet post than Crockatt and there can only be so many from Calgary in cabinet. She could get something though.

Eve Adams, Kellie Leitch and Chris Alexander are also good choices. Ontario, particularly the GTA, have a lot of great people who could go into cabinet but sadly your region trumps your résumé. It will also depend on how many people retire.

Steven Blaney I think is someone who could be a good Qubec Lieutenant and Environment Minister.

Re: Joan Crockatt, even if she doesn't make cabinet, I think she will become a parliamentary secretary. Her media background would make her a great government spokesperson.

[Topaz]

I doubt if you'll send anything different for Leitch, because she already has two jobs, one in Ottawa and the other rushing back home to perform operations at the hospital in her area. Adams, is a little too close to the robocalls in Guelph and Alexander, well he was the Ambassador in Afhganistan, when the toruring was going on. It doesn't really matter about the changes anyway because Canadians are onto this party, what it has done and want it will probably try to do.

[RNG]

I doubt if you'll send anything different for Leitch, because she already has two jobs, one in Ottawa and the other rushing back home to perform operations at the hospital in her area. Adams, is a little too close to the robocalls in Guelph and Alexander, well he was the Ambassador in Afhganistan, when the toruring was going on. It doesn't really matter about the changes anyway because Canadians are onto this party, what it has done and want it will probably try to do.

I'm not being challenging at all, an honest question. Do you really think the Afghan torture is an issue for Alexander?

[shortlived]

Maybe its time to start reducing the size of cabinet, rather than a large bloated and more costly cabinet. Why is cabinet increasing in size and as large as it is if the government is suppose to be trimming 5 to 10 % that is a good 2-4 cabinet positions to remove. With government departments being pared back, so too should cabinet. An easy way to reduce staffing is to consolidate extra cabinet positions. Example putting defence and veterans affairs under one minister. Putting status of women into canada heritage, Putting health and environment ministries together. Putting skills development and labour and industry together, Putting national revenue and finance together, perhaps the tresury board also, putting international trade with foreign affairs and removing the 10 minister of state positions. That sounds like it should make up for any cabinet departures.

Edited March 24, 2013 by shortlived

[Newfoundlander]

I doubt if you'll send anything different for Leitch, because she already has two jobs, one in Ottawa and the other rushing back home to perform operations at the hospital in her area. Adams, is a little too close to the robocalls in Guelph and Alexander, well he was the Ambassador in Afhganistan, when the toruring was going on. It doesn't really matter about the changes anyway because Canadians are onto this party, what it has done and want it will probably try to do.

Why is Adams "a little to close to the robocalls in Guelph"?

[UofGPolitico]

Why is Adams "a little to close to the robocalls in Guelph"?

He is alluding to Michael Sona, who was working for Ms. Adams when the scandal broke, which rightly or wrongly, forced him to resign.

[August1991]

I'm not being challenging at all, an honest question. Do you really think the Afghan torture is an issue for Alexander?

Anyone who knows anything about this would say otherwise - but politics can be a weird game.

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I'll stick with my first idea: Harper will put Chris Alexander on the front bench in preparation for the next election.

If Harper doesn't do this, I'll conclude that Harper's a weak, badly calculating PM - and internal party politics will quickly overtake him, as they did Chretien/Diefenbaker.

Edited March 25, 2013 by August1991

[PIK]

Kenney to fiance.

[Newfoundlander]

He is alluding to Michael Sona, who was working for Ms. Adams when the scandal broke, which rightly or wrongly, forced him to resign.

Still doesn't place any involvement of what happened in Guelph on her.

Kenney to fiance.

I don't really know who else but him would go there. The job requires an effective communicator who is bilingual, and it's unlikely Harper would take a risk and not go with someone who is among the top ministers at the moment. I think there are some other interesting people but they'd probably be too risky. Shelly Glover could been an interesting person for example.

Edited March 26, 2013 by Newfoundlander

[Guest Derek L]

Still doesn't place any involvement of what happened in Guelph on her.

I don't really know who else but him would go there. The job requires an effective communicator who is bilingual, and it's unlikely Harper would take a risk and not go with someone who is among the top ministers at the moment. I think there are some other interesting people but they'd probably be too risky. Shelly Glover could been an interesting person for example.

Maybe her to replace Vic Toews.....Might be something to put a cop at justice instead of a lawyer........Perhaps a better perspective on laws pertaining to child abuse and youth gangs………

[Newfoundlander]

^ Agreed, I think she'd be good there as well. It's likely her best fit, the reason I mentioned finance is because she is the Parliamentary Assistant to the Minister if Finance.

[Guest Derek L]

^ Agreed, I think she'd be good there as well. It's likely her best fit, the reason I mentioned finance is because she is the Parliamentary Assistant to the Minister if Finance.

Fair enough.

[August1991]

Kenney to fiance.

Jamais de la vie.

I think Flaherty will stay at Finance. And Mackay at Defence. I think Kenney will stay at Immigration. I think Baird or Kent will move, but I'm not sure where. Maybe Alexander will become MFA.

If you want to know Harper's thinking, I would look rather at Clement. What happens to him?

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And the critical question (in English or French) is whether Maxime Bernier returns to cabinet, even as a secretary.

Edited March 27, 2013 by August1991

[Newfoundlander]

Bernier is in cabinet.

[shortlived]

Bernier is in cabinet.

Perhaps he could do status of women?

There is more humour to that than some people know.

Who would take over "small business and tourism though?"

Edited March 30, 2013 by shortlived

[Newfoundlander]

Perhaps he could do status of women?

Why?

[shortlived]

Why?

Why?

Move beyond that question my son.

[Newfoundlander]

You can't say why?

[August1991]

Bernier is in cabinet.

You may be a Newfoundlander, but you understand Canada.

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My bet too. We may both be wrong.

Edited March 31, 2013 by August1991

[shortlived]

You can't say why?

You can't handle the truth.

[Newfoundlander]

You may be a Newfoundlander, but you understand Canada.

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My bet too. We may both be wrong.

What?

[Smallc]

You may be a Newfoundlander, but you understand Canada.

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My bet too. We may both be wrong.

He meant that he's already in Cabinet.

[August1991]

He meant that he's already in Cabinet.

I interpreted Newfoundlander's post to mean that Maxime Bernier's return to cabinet in the next shuffle is a foregone conclusion.

Harper knows that he has a good grasp of the old Social Credit rump in Quebec. Unlike Mulroney, Harper is not a high flier. And unlike Clark, Harper gets along with people (and can count).