Poll shows NDP losing out to the Liberals

Boges · November 13, 2012

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/11/13/ndp-support-dropping-as-liberals-conservatives-gain-ground-in-new-poll/

The Conservative Party has a comfortable lead in support from Canadians while the Liberals have gained support at the expense of the second-place NDP, according to a new poll.

The Tories have 36% support from decided voters versus 29% for the NDP and 22% for the Liberals in the Abacus Data poll, conducted in November.

The Bloc Quebecois garnered 7% support nationally and the Greens, 6%

Again, I don't believe polls this far out from an election matter much but it does seem there'll be significant vote splitting in the next election if the Libs elect a somewhat competent leader.

Fletch 27 · November 13, 2012

Its called splitting the vote... With Mulcair totally abscent (and off his rocker) and Justin coming in, Splitting the Vote has ensured another Harper Majority...

cybercoma · November 13, 2012

The NDP are probably losing ground right now, due to the mythos of Trudeau. However, Abacus has been really inaccurate in the past.

Fletch 27 · November 13, 2012

The NDP are probably losing ground right now, due to the mythos of Trudeau. However, Abacus has been really inaccurate in the past.

They are losing ground simply due to Mulcair..

cybercoma · November 13, 2012

For instance they write, "Since the online survey was not a random, probability based sample, a margin of error could not be calculated."

Then they go on to say, "The margin of error for a survey of 1,068 respondents using a probability sample [my note: which this survey did not use] is +/- 3.0%, 19 times out of 20."

It's this kind of sloppy reporting that gets them into trouble. They shouldn't be reporting the margin of error for a survey using a probability sample when they did not use a probability sample. It's misleading.

Regardless, like I said, there's no doubt in my mind that the Liberals will gain at the NDP's expense during their leadership race.

cybercoma · November 13, 2012

They are losing ground simply due to Mulcair..

How so? You have anything to back this up?

Fletch 27 · November 13, 2012

Nope, just popular opinion and trends in polls.... Thats all

Boges · November 13, 2012

How so? You have anything to back this up?

The story I read said the NDP are doing poorly in Alberta because of Mulclair's position on the oilsands. Not that they would have expected to win anymore than that token Edmonton seat they have.

Fletch 27 · November 13, 2012

The story I read said the NDP are doing poorly in Alberta because of Mulclair's position on the oilsands. Not that they would have expected to win anymore than that token Edmonton seat they have.

Facts be Danmed!!!!

cybercoma · November 13, 2012

The story I read said the NDP are doing poorly in Alberta because of Mulclair's position on the oilsands. Not that they would have expected to win anymore than that token Edmonton seat they have.

That's only a single province where they don't do well anyway.

Facts be Danmed!!!!

What facts, you couldn't provide facts. Just opinion as you stated above.

Nope, just popular opinion

cybercoma · November 13, 2012

Boges,

Also, I don't see where the NDP is losing ground in Alberta since Mulcair's nomination. Maybe you have information I don't, but here are the trendlines.

Monthly+Federal+Polls.PNG

bleeding heart · November 13, 2012

My guess all along has been that the NDP"s success in the last election will ultimately amount to a two steps forward, one step back scenario. That is, the Liberals will likely gain, and likely overtake them in the next election (at the very least, the one after). The NDP's seats will drop considerably.

But I don't think they'll drop all the way back to what they were before the last election.

Sleipnir · November 13, 2012

http://news.national...nd-in-new-poll/

Again, I don't believe polls this far out from an election matter much but it does seem there'll be significant vote splitting in the next election if the Libs elect a somewhat competent leader.

Try this site

http://www.threehundredeight.com/

Edited November 13, 2012 by Sleipnir

scribblet · November 13, 2012

This should stop the speculation about merging the two parties. The Liberals can and will come back eventually at the expense of the NDP.

Destroyer25 · November 13, 2012

My guess all along has been that the NDP"s success in the last election will ultimately amount to a two steps forward, one step back scenario. That is, the Liberals will likely gain, and likely overtake them in the next election (at the very least, the one after). The NDP's seats will drop considerably.

But I don't think they'll drop all the way back to what they were before the last election.

The NDP without a doubt will be unable to maintain their current strength. It's pretty obvious that they got to where they are thanks to Jack and Jack alone, it wasn't because Canadians woke up and decided that they like Socialism; although their success in Quebec can be attributed to a degree to similarities between BQ and NDP policy. Jack was an honorable man despite his faults, and although I despised his politics I still have a great deal of respect for him. He wasn't you average politican, although he certainly wasn't above the typical partisan BS and whatnot, he was certainly a better man than most other politians, especially many of Harper's ilk.

So, with regard to the next election, I think it's fair to say that the Liberals will certainly regain some strength at the NDP's expense regardless of who they choose. Nobody has any confidence in Mulcair's ability to combat the Conservatives; he's not Jack.

All good news for the country, after the next election in 2015 we'll have another 4 years of sustained economic growth and fiscal responsibility.

Sleipnir · November 13, 2012

The NDP without a doubt will be unable to maintain their current strength.

1.5 years later, NDP still ahead of the liberals on average.

It's pretty obvious that they got to where they are thanks to Jack and Jack alone, it wasn't because Canadians woke up and decided that they like Socialism; although their success in Quebec can be attributed to a degree to similarities between BQ and NDP policy.

Neither the NDP or the Bloc advocates socialism.

So, with regard to the next election, I think it's fair to say that the Liberals will certainly regain some strength at the NDP's expense regardless of who they choose. Nobody has any confidence in Mulcair's ability to combat the Conservatives; he's not Jack.

Unless Trudeau manage to implode. People said the same at the beginning with confident on how Ignatieff will regain strength from the NDP. One election later, the Liberals are holding by a thread. The election in 2015 will be the do or die moment for the Liberals.

All bad news for the country, after the next election in 2015 we'll have another 4 years of disastrous economic growth and fiscal irresponsibility.

Fixed it for you

Merlin · November 13, 2012

Seems like the left vote will be split amongst the NDP and Liberals which will once again allow the Tories to cruise through the middle. It's obvious that the only thing that can save the moderates is to merge together and make one centre - centre/left party.

cybercoma · November 14, 2012

Seems like the left vote will be split amongst the NDP and Liberals which will once again allow the Tories to cruise through the middle. It's obvious that the only thing that can save the moderates is to merge together and make one centre - centre/left party.

Yup. It's pretty clear exactly how people will vote 2 years from now.

wyly · November 14, 2012

Boges,

Also, I don't see where the NDP is losing ground in Alberta since Mulcair's nomination. Maybe you have information I don't, but here are the trendlines.

ndp support in alberta hasn't changed any, the conservatives strength is skewed by the FPTP system about 1.5 million albertans support the ndp and liberals but that just doesn't translate into seats because of the screwed up electoral system...

Fletch 27 · November 14, 2012

Your the polls guy... Well, maybe not today? It's "trending".....

Fletch 27 · November 14, 2012

wyly.... It's just screwed up now? Or cuz your idea of democracy doesn't match everyone else's?

Sleipnir · November 14, 2012

ndp support in alberta hasn't changed any, the conservatives strength is skewed by the FPTP system about 1.5 million albertans support the ndp and liberals but that just doesn't translate into seats because of the screwed up electoral system...

NDP has Edmonton Strathcona.

wyly · November 14, 2012

there's the traditional upsurge in polling during a leadership race and as yet no one other than JT is running, any speculation how that will translate into votes 2-3 yrs from now is very premature...308.com canada's version of Mr silver in the US has the CPC in much weakened minority government(128 seats) should elections be held today, the NDP even stronger(115) and the liberals a very respectable 3rd(92)...so according to 308.com the liberals will be taking seats from the cpc not the NDP ...but again we're a long way off from an election...

Fletch 27 · November 14, 2012

Ahhhhhhhhh. 308..... A fine blog

cybercoma · November 14, 2012

there's the traditional upsurge in polling during a leadership race and as yet no one other than JT is running, any speculation how that will translate into votes 2-3 yrs from now is very premature...308.com canada's version of Mr silver in the US has the CPC in much weakened minority government(128 seats) should elections be held today, the NDP even stronger(115) and the liberals a very respectable 3rd(92)...so according to 308.com the liberals will be taking seats from the cpc not the NDP ...but again we're a long way off from an election...

I wouldn't compare 308 with Nate Silver. ThreeOhEight is a polling aggregate, but I don't think they get as in depth about polling accuracy and history as Mr. Silver does. I think 308 just gives a simple average.