The future of Canadian/American Relations

[JAmotue]

This is an odd thought I know. And Im not sure if everyone here will agree with it.

But lets take a quick look into the future. The United States is soon going to fall back in status to at the very least Global Power but not Super Power. (If you're not sure what I mean there that would be one step lower where Canada would be Great/Regional Power) Or, what is less likely but still a possibility, a total collapse of the American state. Ie: What happened to the USSR or possibly worse. (I cant see this as bloodless.)

But seeing as how Canada and the Canadian people have always had to deal with an eternal and nearly all encompassing relationship with the United States. How will we handle it with the United States being possibly weaker than us. If it existence at all.

I think in the end the first situation would likely be less beneficial for Canada over all. A weakened but not dead united states could very well take a incredible right wing turn. I wont say Fascism, because Fascism is dead. But I can see it springing from the American longing to remain powerful and important as well as to reattain their standard of living which is likely to drop as the American economy slips into the red. America could very well turn even more isolationist and militarist. In the end, as America starts to choke on its lack of natural resources to feed its always growing hunger it would inevitably look for the softest closest target.

I also do not think that anyone would back Canada up in this situation if it were to occur. They would be to afraid of step in the way of what would be a much weaker US but still probably able to destroy most nations militarily with out even trying. As for the European Union and our friends and allies in Asia they would have more to gain economically from a United North America under the US than a joint occupation of a former Super Power.

The second situation is still rather ruff. If the US broke unto Civil War, or even collapsed into several States or Unions fighting one another. Domestically I'm not sure what would happen in the North. But Im sure things will change. If things get too chaotic in the US I could see the CAF being used to make sure that the instability doesn't consume Canada as well. In the end in the wake of an American collapse Canada would likely need to occupy the Northern States (I don't think we are capable of occupying more than that) possibly having to set up a New American Government. Turning around the way North America has been for the last 200 years and placing Canada at the rains. This would likely end however in a Republican dominated nation in the Southern US. And I don't think that would end well.

I know that its impossible to predict what may happen as the US falls more and more into the shadows but it will be an interesting and monuments event in world history. And millions of times more important than that to Canada.

Does anyone agree with my thoughts? If not why?

Edited August 3, 2011 by JAmotue

[M.Dancer]

This is an odd thought I know. And Im not sure if everyone here will agree with it.

But lets take a quick look into the future. The United States is soon going to fall back in status to at the very least Global Power but not Super Power.

Lets start with your premise. Not by a long shot. The US is still the world most powerful economy....and still the world's most powerful adversary.

Does anyone agree with my thoughts? If not why?

Your thoughts border on fantasy.

[Topaz]

The US has a very high debt level and it will only keep growing, its like a cancer. Once the US $$ is NOT the world's reserve currency, all that printing the US has been doing will make the US$$ worthless. China has been reproted to know this is going to happen and its trying to get rid of the US treasury bills it has. Nothing last forever and sooner or later, down the road the US $$ will fall. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/23183a78-a0c6-11e0-b14e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1TyTeSBNB

[Oleg Bach]

Lets start with your premise. Not by a long shot. The US is still the world most powerful economy....and still the world's most powerful adversary.

Your thoughts border on fantasy.

No matter what the pirates to the south do - prosper or not - super power or just a common power - One thing you can be sure of is that they will never give up their domestic arms or their ability to project power into the world with their big guns - the pirates will never put down their swords...and they will always have more and bigger swords than we - it's tradtion. So what if their ship needs a paint job and the pirates don't have the status of the past....No matter how they decline - they will aways be capable of causing great pain and destruction....Once a pirate - always a priate...a rusty sword can still take off a head.

[Guest American Woman]

The future of Canadian/American relations will continue as it always has - among the best in the world.

From the Canadian government:

Canada and the United States enjoy a bilateral relationship unique in the world. It is forged by shared geography, similar values, common interests, deep social connections and powerful, multi-layered economic ties. The result is a long-standing, deep and enviable partnership.

The two countries are intimately linked by family ties, have similar immigrant cultures, and embrace common political and democratic values of freedom, democracy, human rights and the rule of law.

Since the Ogdensburg Agreement of 1940, which called for closer Canada-U.S. military cooperation, Canadian strategy has been that the two countries must defend the continent through joint efforts. This partnership has reinforced Canada’s national sovereignty and has provided Canada with security in times both of trouble and of peace.

Over the years, the Canada-U.S. relationship has deepened through a shared commitment to build a world of peace and security. During the first and second world wars, and again in the Korean War, Canadian and U.S. soldiers fought and died together. Today, they are working together to help bring peace, stability and a decent life to the long-suffering people of Afghanistan.

But the true strength and resilience of the relationship is perhaps best illustrated when Canada and the U.S. disagree. As sovereign nations, with at times divergent interests, the two countries are sometimes confronted by difficult issues. Disagreements, such as those on softwood lumber and on beef imports, have tested the relationship. But on every occasion, because they are good neighbours and have so much in common, solutions have been found. At its core, the Canada-U.S. relationship is so strong, so mutually important, that the two nations realize the common interests that unite them are far greater than the irritants that may momentarily divide them.

From the U.S. government:

The relationship between the United States and Canada is among the closest and most extensive in the world.

U.S. defense arrangements with Canada are more extensive than with any other country.

While bilateral law enforcement cooperation and coordination were excellent prior to the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, they have since become even closer through such mechanisms as the Cross Border Crime Forum.

In fields ranging from law enforcement to environmental protection to free trade, the two countries work closely on multiple levels from federal to local. In addition to their close bilateral ties, Canada and the United States cooperate in multilateral fora.

The United States and Canada also work closely to resolve trans-boundary environmental and water issues, an area of increasing importance in the bilateral relationship.

Canada is a large foreign aid donor and targets its annual assistance of C$4.4 billion toward priority sectors such as good governance; health (including HIV/AIDS); basic education; private-sector development; and environmental sustainability. Canada is a major aid donor to Iraq, Haiti, and Afghanistan.

The United States and Canada share the world's largest and most comprehensive trading relationship, which supports millions of jobs in each country.

Canada and the United States have one of the world's largest investment relationships.

Those are but a few highlights of our relationship. I agree with the assessment of both nations - our relationship is unique and among the closest in the world.

[JAmotue]

We cant ever assume that Canadian American relations will continue on as they always have. Simply because something is profitable right now, does not mean that it will be like that forever. Seeing how hard the Republican party and American right resist change in general is not a good sign for if the US keeps falling back on the world stage.

[bush_cheney2004]

We cant ever assume....

This fantasy works both ways....there is no guarantee that Canada will remain stable internally given separatist factions and an export economy 75% dependent on the USA. The actual history (not fantasy) since WW2 finds America as today's lone superpower while Canada had actually lost far more international leverage and capabilities. PM Harper's efforts to get back Canada's "seat at the table" are just now getting traction, and a return to former middle power status remains elusive.

[dre]

http://christianjenny.com/Images/Jesusland.jpg

Things will probably end up looking something like that.

[jacee]

This fantasy works both ways....there is no guarantee that Canada will remain stable internally given separatist factions and an export economy 75% dependent on the USA. The actual history (not fantasy) since WW2 finds America as today's lone superpower while Canada had actually lost far more international leverage and capabilities. PM Harper's efforts to get back Canada's "seat at the table" are just now getting traction, and a return to former middle power status remains elusive.

My perception is that Harper has damaged Canada's international diplomatic strength with his inflexible approach. Kind of the opposite of what you are saying.

On the larger issue of a possible tumultuous change to the south ... we Canadians know we sit on a wealth of desirable natural resources including water and we are vulnerable to the south. However, we can only hope that diplomacy and respect continues between our two nations, more like extended family than just neighbours.

[bush_cheney2004]

My perception is that Harper has damaged Canada's international diplomatic strength with his inflexible approach. Kind of the opposite of what you are saying.

Then you are in denial when it comes to Canada's actual "middle power" status and complicity post WW2.

On the larger issue of a possible tumultuous change to the south ... we Canadians know we sit on a wealth of desirable natural resources including water and we are vulnerable to the south. However, we can only hope that diplomacy and respect continues between our two nations, more like extended family than just neighbours.

Don't bet on it...nation states have interests...not sentiments for extended family. For the record, the Americans helped Canada develop those desirable resources with big time capital investment, along with a the biggest market in the world.

[M.Dancer]

Then you are in denial when it comes to Canada's actual "middle power" status and complicity post WW2.

too vague....status and complicity post suez crisis...before then we were a solid middle power...after that...decline and world wide indifference.

For the record, the Americans helped Canada develop those desirable resources with big time capital investment, along with a the biggest market in the world.

And we thanked them by closing down the VSE...much to the delight of honest investors and mortification of stock promoters everywhere....

[Jack Weber]

This is an odd thought I know. And Im not sure if everyone here will agree with it.

But lets take a quick look into the future. The United States is soon going to fall back in status to at the very least Global Power but not Super Power. (If you're not sure what I mean there that would be one step lower where Canada would be Great/Regional Power) Or, what is less likely but still a possibility, a total collapse of the American state. Ie: What happened to the USSR or possibly worse. (I cant see this as bloodless.)

But seeing as how Canada and the Canadian people have always had to deal with an eternal and nearly all encompassing relationship with the United States. How will we handle it with the United States being possibly weaker than us. If it existence at all.

I think in the end the first situation would likely be less beneficial for Canada over all. A weakened but not dead united states could very well take a incredible right wing turn. I wont say Fascism, because Fascism is dead. But I can see it springing from the American longing to remain powerful and important as well as to reattain their standard of living which is likely to drop as the American economy slips into the red. America could very well turn even more isolationist and militarist. In the end, as America starts to choke on its lack of natural resources to feed its always growing hunger it would inevitably look for the softest closest target.

I also do not think that anyone would back Canada up in this situation if it were to occur. They would be to afraid of step in the way of what would be a much weaker US but still probably able to destroy most nations militarily with out even trying. As for the European Union and our friends and allies in Asia they would have more to gain economically from a United North America under the US than a joint occupation of a former Super Power.

The second situation is still rather ruff. If the US broke unto Civil War, or even collapsed into several States or Unions fighting one another. Domestically I'm not sure what would happen in the North. But Im sure things will change. If things get too chaotic in the US I could see the CAF being used to make sure that the instability doesn't consume Canada as well. In the end in the wake of an American collapse Canada would likely need to occupy the Northern States (I don't think we are capable of occupying more than that) possibly having to set up a New American Government. Turning around the way North America has been for the last 200 years and placing Canada at the rains. This would likely end however in a Republican dominated nation in the Southern US. And I don't think that would end well.

I know that its impossible to predict what may happen as the US falls more and more into the shadows but it will be an interesting and monuments event in world history. And millions of times more important than that to Canada.

Does anyone agree with my thoughts? If not why?

I think you're correct in your assumption that US is headeding for a permanent fall in global stature.The question is ,"How far?"...And certain areas of Canada,at least economically,are going o go with it.The reason for that is simple,in that, we really have nerver diversified our economy in terms of trade the way we have talked about since the Trudeau era.

The US will probably end up alot like the country it defeated,ironically enough,to win its independence.Like The UK...A country with some global clout,but nothing like it used to have.It will soon be surpassed by China and probably India.This is going to be very hard for the "Manifest Destiny" types to take.As this relates to Canada,I think our natural resource sector could very well sell its goods to other places in the world if the US is'nt going to have the capability or necessity to buy from us.

Now,you've made an interesting point about Fascism being dead.I would'nt say it's dead..I would say that it takes different forms but it's based on the same old thing...

Forms of it can be found in Radical Islam...More political forms of it can be found in the 3rd World...Sadly,the most obvious modern form of it is China.China is hardly Chairman Mao's agricultural/workers paradise (if it ever was),in fact,I think the nutty Chairman would hardly recognize his country.China does'nt resemble a "leftist" state at all anymore.It,at least to me,has all the hallmarks of a modern corporate Fascist state.And I think this is weher the fall of the US is going to hurt the most...

"Developing" countries are always asked,at least from the political side of things,if they want "western" aid they have to democratize.But with US power waning globally,and with the ascension of Chinese power globally,we have a far different (and far more stark) scenario on our hands.The Chinese have a policy of never meddling in the internal affairs of another country.As if they're going to lecture authoritarian regimes on the treatment of their populous's.They simply invest in countries and then get agreements to get at natural resources (for example).They don't care if the Nigerian government massacres a thousand people...We'll build the bridge/you give us access to your oil...It's pretty straight forward with Bejing..

The real problem I see with the rise of China globally is the decline of democracy itself globally...There's no doubt Fascism is efficient and I think alot of authoritarian regimes in the 3rd World will simply see this as a green light to do whatever they want so long as the Chinese are willing to do business with us.Conversely,the problem with democracy is that it's slow...You actually have to listen to other points of view...You have to debate things...Democracy has been described as the "Politics of the half loaf"...There's no debate in Fascist China...You just do what you're told or you get sent to a "re-education camp" or you get a firing squad.

[Yukon Jack]

The uber-patriotic Canadian hatred for anything American has never been at a higher pitch.

[Oleg Bach]

The uber-patriotic Canadian hatred for anything American has never been at a higher pitch.

We suck on the American tit...it's like hating your mother...which might not be a bad idea seeing she eats her young.

[Jack Weber]

The uber-patriotic Canadian hatred for anything American has never been at a higher pitch.

Unlike the constant slurping of all thing "Americana" by a few yank wannabe members here...