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It looks like we're walking into another minority situation


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I'm guessing, and hoping that the Tories will lose seats. There were a number of Tory candidates that wouldn't go to debates and people were angry at that.

The candidates stopped going to the debates because they were attended largely by loud obnoxious morons who didn't have anywhere better to be. Going to a debate and being booed every time you opened your mouth by a partisan fringe group of unemployed wack-jobs or students is in no way productive. I know the debates in Guelph and the KW region were an absolute farce and nobody took them seriously because of how rude the attendees were. There's a reason the televised debate didn't have an audience.

He has support in Alberta, Saskatchewan and maybe Manitoba but that's it. It could be close and because of the polls, I think more voters, soft Tory and Liberals will vote NDP to get Harper out of there.

Aren't you forgetting Ontario, where the Tories have been polling @ 40%, with probably closer to 60% outside of the GTA? There's also Atlantic Canada, where they're polling around 30-35%.

Support for the CPC is far more widespread than any other party in Canada. LPC support is almost non-existant outside of Montreal and Toronto. The NDP is reviled in Ontario outside of dt Toronto, Hamilton and Northern Ontario. They'll get a smattering of seats west of Ontario and their support will largely be concentrated in Quebec, if at all.

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What a surprise, a conservative hack predicting an expanded CPC minority.

What a sage and intellectual response. :rolleyes: What about the article do you take issue with? You can rail against it all you want, but tell us why his predictions make no sense, rather than wet your bed over it because you don't like what he's saying.

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Does the NDP run candidates in a significant number of ridings in Quebec provincial elections?

The Quebec NDP separated from the federal in 1989, and now no longer exists.

I have a feeling it's going to come back strongly after this election... especially with Quebecois being tired of Charest but having tepid feelings of Marois.

Edited by nittanylionstorm07
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David Frum is predicting an expanded Conservative minority with an expanded NDP as official opposition.

Sounds reasonable, but I wouldn't discount the possibility of vote splitting in Ontario giving them a squeaker of a majority.

Though Intrade only has that possiblity at about 23%---the lowest of the campaign so far.

And I always believe Intrade.

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Nope. He will form a coalition with the Liberals and Bloc, or A Cooperative since signing anything with Duceppe would be a death sentence even for Jacko. It is the grand prize- governance. You are dreaming if you think Layton will bypass that at any price. Remember- it isn't his money that pays Quebec.

If the polls are right this is the start of the NDP Golden Era and death's door for the Libs and Bloc. Layton will first need to whip a lot of neophytes into a workable opposition party while the other two will be scrambling to find leaders so they can survive. The Tories would only be defeated when Layton felt he would be ready to possibly govern if asked by the GG - this of course would depend on the number of seats he gets today. If the Tories, Libs and Bloc then defeat him he has a great issue to campaign on for the ensuing election.

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The problem with wiping out the centrist party is that the centrist elements then scatter in opposite directions. The soft-liberal left would go to the NDP and the soft Liberal right would go to the tories. People for some reason seem to think that the collapse of the Liberals will lead to their entire base voting NDP all of the sudden. Jack Layton and the NDP are not well liked in large parts of the country, particularly in Ontario.

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Sounds reasonable, but I wouldn't discount the possibility of vote splitting in Ontario giving them a squeaker of a majority.

Unlikely but possible. They will lose seats in Quebec and perhaps a couple in Atlantic Canada. The vote splitting in Ontario would have to be spot-on though to pick up enough seats to form a majority and it would be a thin one.

As Harold Wilson said when he had a majority of four, "You don't want four MPs all in the same cab in the event of an accident".

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Unlikely but possible. They will lose seats in Quebec and perhaps a couple in Atlantic Canada.

They're looking to gain seats in Atlantic Canada as far as I can tell now that Whiney Williams is gone.

The vote splitting in Ontario would have to be spot-on though to pick up enough seats to form a majority and it would be a thin one.

As Harold Wilson said when he had a majority of four, "You don't want four MPs all in the same cab in the event of an accident".

They don't really need that many seats.

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What a sage and intellectual response. :rolleyes: What about the article do you take issue with? You can rail against it all you want, but tell us why his predictions make no sense, rather than wet your bed over it because you don't like what he's saying.

About as sage as your assessment of NDP support in Ontario. As mentioned in other threads, Ontario is too close to call in many areas, but the NDP hold ridings outside of Northern Ontario, the GTA and Hamilton. Now stop "trying" to be clever; condescension is unbecoming of a gentlemen. I've given my predictions in other threads, and the reasoning behind it. All we've seen out of you is nay saying and saber rattling, enough with the fluff give us some substance sir.

Let's just look at how much of a conservative hack David Frum is shall we? Here's some light reading penned by the man himself.

"Dead Right", "Comeback: Conservatism that can Win Again", "What's Right: The New Conservatism and What It Means for Canada" and the list goes on and on. Are you honestly saying he's not a conservative hack? If so please provide examples as to how he hasn't demonstrated overt partisanship.

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About as sage as your assessment of NDP support in Ontario. As mentioned in other threads, Ontario is too close to call in many areas, but the NDP hold ridings outside of Northern Ontario, the GTA and Hamilton. Now stop "trying" to be clever; condescension is unbecoming of a gentlemen. I've given my predictions in other threads, and the reasoning behind it. All we've seen out of you is nay saying and saber rattling, enough with the fluff give us some substance sir.

Let's just look at how much of a conservative hack David Frum is shall we? Here's some light reading penned by the man himself.

"Dead Right", "Comeback: Conservatism that can Win Again", "What's Right: The New Conservatism and What It Means for Canada" and the list goes on and on. Are you honestly saying he's not a conservative hack? If so please provide examples as to how he hasn't demonstrated overt partisanship.

Condemning David Frum for being a Conservative advocate is the same as condemning Layton for being an NDP advocate. What are you going on about?

David Frum in no way tries to hide his bias. Unlike the CBC, they are the hacks.

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Condemning David Frum for being a Conservative advocate is the same as condemning Layton for being an NDP advocate. What are you going on about?

David Frum in no way tries to hide his bias. Unlike the CBC, they are the hacks.

The difference I suppose is it can be demonstrated quite clearly that David Frum is biased and as such his "predictions" should be interpreted in that light, therefore if a riding is close he's going to interpret that for the CPC, or allocated a rather unwarranted allotment of the undecided vote to the CPC.

The CBC's apparent "liberal" bias is your perception and cannot be clearly demonstrated. I hear some people say things like the MSM is liberal but little to no evidence is ever provided.

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The NDP looked dead to many at start of the campaign, media only questions to him were why are so few supporters at events. Then suddenly the bloc mentioned sovereignty vote, bloc changed to Layton and a huge surge happened.

IMO it's Pauline Marois, leader of the Parti Quebecois who first stoked the fires of sovereignty at the outset of this campaign. She received 93% approval from her party. No doubt she then felt compelled to motivate the troops in anticipation of the next provincial election. Marois could not care less about any fallout of her actions on the fortunes of the Bloc at the federal level. The PQ is for the PQ and the goal is to unseat Charest at the first opportunity. At this particular time, Quebecers don't appear to want another sovereignty referendum for the moment and they are punishing the Bloc for getting on board with Marois and her drum beating.

Saying liberals are dead is extremely premature.

If they keep missing the target with their poor choice of leaders I'm afraid anything else they do will be for naught.

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About as sage as your assessment of NDP support in Ontario. As mentioned in other threads, Ontario is too close to call in many areas, but the NDP hold ridings outside of Northern Ontario, the GTA and Hamilton.

Sorry, I'll add London Fanshawe, Windsor and maybe one or two outside of that. 85% of the NDP's support is in those areas because they're largely dump ghettos economic wastelands desperately in need of subsidies. Outside of that their support plummets.

Now stop "trying" to be clever; condescension is unbecoming of a gentlemen. I've given my predictions in other threads, and the reasoning behind it. All we've seen out of you is nay saying and saber rattling, enough with the fluff give us some substance sir.

When your posts actually have some substance, rather than glib responses like, "Conservative hack - ignore what he says" perhaps I'll spare you my condescension and contempt. David Frum's prediction is, regardless of his bias, supported by most of the polls. Your disagreement is based on your dislike for the anticipated results.

Edited by Moonbox
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I think (hope) that the NDP do occupy the political void left by the demise of the LPC. I think, that we'll see the NDP move more toward the center and they may very well be the heirs to the lions share of the LPC support, given the CPC's penchant for social conservatism even blue grits would have a difficult time supporting them.

If the NDP wins a stint in opposition, accompanied by all that money for research allocated to the office of the opposition, IMO they will definitely move toward the centre left. Their MPs will gain valuable experience and knowledge in the process, and their front bench will be strengthened. They will not want to go back to being the third party.

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IMO it's Pauline Marois, leader of the Parti Quebecois who first stoked the fires of sovereignty at the outset of this campaign. She received 93% approval from her party. No doubt she then felt compelled to motivate the troops in anticipation of the next provincial election. Marois could not care less about any fallout of her actions on the fortunes of the Bloc at the federal level. The PQ is for the PQ and the goal is to unseat Charest at the first opportunity. At this particular time, Quebecers don't appear to want another sovereignty referendum for the moment and they are punishing the Bloc for getting on board with Marois and her drum beating.

If they keep missing the target with their poor choice of leaders I'm afraid anything else they do will be for naught.

Yup... Marois is a twit... and her and the BQ are going to be seriously regretting their inane actions if the NDP restarts their provincial party.

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Sorry, I'll add London Fanshawe, Windsor and maybe one or two outside of that. 85% of the NDP's support is in those areas because they're largely dump ghettos economic wastelands desperately in need of subsidies. Outside of that their support plummets.

Correct based on previous election results, however, current polls the ones you claim to be so very versed in but heretofore have provided on substance to back up your claims, indicate that even in Ontario NDP support is on the rise. To say less is to be utterly out of touch with reality. The fact remains, the CPC has been at best flat, and the NDP is rising. But I suppose your partisan blinders are preventing you from even acknowledging this fact. What poll/polls specifically are you referring to that shows this expanded CPC minority will materialize? What do you base your opinions on?

When your posts actually have some substance, rather than glib responses like, "Conservative hack - ignore what he says" perhaps I'll spare you my condescension and contempt. David Frum's prediction is, regardless of his bias, supported by most of the polls. Your disagreement is based on your dislike for the anticipated results.

Translation do as I say don't do as I do. So basically you are bereft of facts and are only armed with aspersions. Well done! I asked for evidence to the contrary that he isn't a conservative hack. His bias is demonstrated in any of his work. I did not once say "ignore what he says", merely his assessment is clearly not without bias, I'll grant you this was implicit, so I suppose I can't fault you for misunderstanding.

Glad to see I've made your contempt list, that's impressive and it only took me one small post! It appears that anyone who disagrees with you earns your contempt. Good for me. Be that as it may there is little evidence according to the polls that the CPC will make gains, if anything they will maintain status quo or go down in seat count ever so slightly.

Feel free to employ your vast powers to refute my opinions, or simply take pot shots at me without supporting evidence; Your call really.

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Not if theres an NDP led coalition.

Technically in that case we won't see another election untill 2016!

WWWTT

Iggy is pretty conservative on many issues (I never really understood why he ran as a Liberal other than expedience at the time) and he has more in common with Harper than he does with Layton/NDP.

If the NDP make considerable gains, I could see a CPC/LPC coalition (the horror!) before I could see one between LPC/NDP.

Not just because of policy alone, but out of bittnerness on the part of LPC for the NDP.

Edited by BC_chick
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Nope. He will form a coalition with the Liberals and Bloc, or A Cooperative since signing anything with Duceppe would be a death sentence even for Jacko. It is the grand prize- governance. You are dreaming if you think Layton will bypass that at any price. Remember- it isn't his money that pays Quebec.

The Liberals are not going to prop up Layton. It would be suicidal to their party. If Igantieff tried most of his MPs would rebel and he'd be booted out.

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Iggy is pretty conservative on many issues (I never really understood why he ran as a Liberal other than expedience at the time) and he has more in common with Harper than he does with Layton/NDP.

If the NDP make considerable gains, I could see a CPC/LPC coalition (the horror!) before I could see one between LPC/NDP.

Not just because of policy alone, but out of bittnerness on the part of LPC for the NDP.

Someone said this in another thread, but more and more I think it could, partially, happen. The red Libs will join the NDP, the blue Libs will join the Cons and a rump will remain and try to rebuild.

Someone said in still another thread that the Cons need to wait a bit for some of their bad, old guys to retire or die and then they can rebuild a party with some progressive in it. Well, a similar thing can be said for the Libs. There are still a bunch of Chretienites that need to be gone, then the Libs can start to rebuild. But is it too late for them?

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The Liberals are not going to prop up Layton. It would be suicidal to their party. If Igantieff tried most of his MPs would rebel and he'd be booted out.

Yeah because the Liberals propping up Harper would be all peaches and cream for them. The whole point of Iggy's and the Libs' campaign was for Canadians to vote for them to get Harper out. That's why they kept saying "don't vote for the NDP if you want Harper out", etc.

So then, if they prop up Harper, all of the voters who voted for the Liberals to try to keep Harper out would be lost to the NDP... pretty much they would lose their iron hold on Ontario/Toronto.

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Someone said this in another thread, but more and more I think it could, partially, happen. The red Libs will join the NDP, the blue Libs will join the Cons and a rump will remain and try to rebuild.

Someone said in still another thread that the Cons need to wait a bit for some of their bad, old guys to retire or die and then they can rebuild a party with some progressive in it. Well, a similar thing can be said for the Libs. There are still a bunch of Chretienites that need to be gone, then the Libs can start to rebuild. But is it too late for them?

I think this will happen. I then think that, on the right, the sudden addition of more moderate/centre voters and politicians will drive the more right wing elements to make a second iteration of Social Credit or Reform.

Such is the wondrous nature of Canadian Parliamentary politics :)

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Correct based on previous election results, however, current polls the ones you claim to be so very versed in but heretofore have provided on substance to back up your claims, indicate that even in Ontario NDP support is on the rise. To say less is to be utterly out of touch with reality. The fact remains, the CPC has been at best flat, and the NDP is rising.

NDP support is rising. I'll not argue with that. It's what...10% higher than it was last election? At whose expense? Not the Tories. Their support is flat. The NDP rise has come at the expense of the Liberals and the Greens. The Tories are polling around 10% higher than the Liberals and NDP, who are almost dead even. We'll see how the vote splitting goes lol.

Translation do as I say don't do as I do. So basically you are bereft of facts and are only armed with aspersions.

We were talking polls and predictions. You attacked someone's predictions because he was a partisan hack, yet he's backed by the polls. His opinion and mine are based on the polls. What are yours based on? Could it be.............nothing???

Well done! I asked for evidence to the contrary that he isn't a conservative hack. His bias is demonstrated in any of his work. I did not once say "ignore what he says", merely his assessment is clearly not without bias, I'll grant you this was implicit, so I suppose I can't fault you for misunderstanding.

A total red herring. What does his bias have to do with anything? We were talking about his conclusion and the polls that thus far support it. It was up to you to provide some contrary evidence, which you completely failed to do aside from saying, "NDP support is rising." We've had about 2 weeks of media coverage to show us that but WELL DONE for noticing.

Glad to see I've made your contempt list, that's impressive and it only took me one small post! It appears that anyone who disagrees with you earns your contempt.

You've been posting here for two years big guy. Your vapid responses in this thread are pretty consistent with your posting history.

Feel free to employ your vast powers to refute my opinions, or simply take pot shots at me without supporting evidence; Your call really.

I believe our argument started when I asked you:

"What about the article do you take issue with? You can rail against it all you want, but tell us why his predictions make no sense, rather than wet your bed over it because you don't like what he's saying."

Your best response was, again, that the NDP support is rising. Anything else? Do you have anything to refute that aside from EKOS, the major pollsters are predicting between 144-160 seats, which would support Frum's prediction? I'm fascinated what your response will be! :P

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Sounds reasonable, but I wouldn't discount the possibility of vote splitting in Ontario giving them a squeaker of a majority.

Though Intrade only has that possiblity at about 23%---the lowest of the campaign so far.

And I always believe Intrade.

InTrade does tend to be pretty accurate.

And for others out there, David Frum is a very moderate conservative.

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I think this will happen. I then think that, on the right, the sudden addition of more moderate/centre voters and politicians will drive the more right wing elements to make a second iteration of Social Credit or Reform.

Such is the wondrous nature of Canadian Parliamentary politics :)

The right wing is already fractured.

Just take a look at the 'Principled Conservative' freepers who now despise Harper and are voting either Liberal or Christian Heritage.

Or the Wild Rose Albertans on a simply provincial level who have abandonded the Alberta Conservatives to move even further to the right...

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