The 15% elephant in the room

[Guest Derek L]

I brought this up in another thread, and I still feel that this will be key come Monday:

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZiRaLBv8C98/TbnL-nxCUCI/AAAAAAAAE_s/Ca-zk71fZ5c/s1600/Canada+Polls.PNG

According to the graph from 308, we see the Tories flat lining around 36-37%, The NDP taking off like a Joint Strike Fighter to about 30-31%, the Liberals hovering around 22%, with the Bloc at 6% and the Greens starting to compost at 4%.

What I find interesting is the large growth in the undecided vote, from roughly 8.5% three days ago to pushing 16% today.

How will this play out Monday? Is this sharp rise being caused by the gains of the NDP? Is there a silent shift happening amongst the well published NDP wave?

Is this the typical A-political Canadian public starting to pay attention now? Is this Liberal supporters, after the last few days of eulogies by some in the media, coming to terms that this might be the end? Are they holding their noses, and deciding which party to call home?

And my final question, will the coming endorsements from the media and fears from Baystreet feed this trend all the way into the voter box come Monday?

[RNG]

I brought this up in another thread, and I still feel that this will be key come Monday:

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZiRaLBv8C98/TbnL-nxCUCI/AAAAAAAAE_s/Ca-zk71fZ5c/s1600/Canada+Polls.PNG

According to the graph from 308, we see the Tories flat lining around 36-37%, The NDP taking off like a Joint Strike Fighter to about 30-31%, the Liberals hovering around 22%, with the Bloc at 6% and the Greens starting to compost at 4%.

What I find interesting is the large growth in the undecided vote, from roughly 8.5% three days ago to pushing 16% today.

How will this play out Monday? Is this sharp rise being caused by the gains of the NDP? Is there a silent shift happening amongst the well published NDP wave?

Is this the typical A-political Canadian public starting to pay attention now? Is this Liberal supporters, after the last few days of eulogies by some in the media, coming to terms that this might be the end? Are they holding their noses, and deciding which party to call home?

And my final question, will the coming endorsements from the media and fears from Baystreet feed this trend all the way into the voter box come Monday?

I have this vision of all kinds of people relating to Layton. Lets face it, the guy has charisma. Does he have any talent? We don't know cause he has never had to perform. It is very easy to sit on the sidelines and criticize. So I see herds of voters who are on the Layton (note I say Layton and not NDP) bandwagon, going into the voting booth and then having sober second thoughts. (Like the Senate put-down?) So we shall see on the second.

[ToadBrother]

I have this vision of all kinds of people relating to Layton. Lets face it, the guy has charisma. Does he have any talent? We don't know cause he has never had to perform. It is very easy to sit on the sidelines and criticize. So I see herds of voters who are on the Layton (note I say Layton and not NDP) bandwagon, going into the voting booth and then having sober second thoughts. (Like the Senate put-down?) So we shall see on the second.

I agree that I think this may favor Layton, but not necessarily because he's got the winning smile. I really do think that the NDP's rise has less to do with the NDP than with general discontent over the Liberals and Tories, and in Quebec, a more specific feeling that they want to vote for a party that can actually play a part in a government if some sort of coalition comes.

[Guest Derek L]

I have this vision of all kinds of people relating to Layton. Lets face it, the guy has charisma. Does he have any talent? We don't know cause he has never had to perform. It is very easy to sit on the sidelines and criticize. So I see herds of voters who are on the Layton (note I say Layton and not NDP) bandwagon, going into the voting booth and then having sober second thoughts. (Like the Senate put-down?) So we shall see on the second.

I agree about the Layton charisma, even a life long Tory such as myself thinks he's likeable and as I've said about the NDP before, I tend to feel their platform, though maybe meaning well, would do serious harm to Canada. I guess it will depend if the undecided voter looks past Layton and examines his parties platform closer and likes or dislikes it.

If Charisma alone is a determing factor for the average undecided voter, I'd say the election is Layton's to lose.

[Guest Derek L]

I agree that I think this may favor Layton, but not necessarily because he's got the winning smile. I really do think that the NDP's rise has less to do with the NDP than with general discontent over the Liberals and Tories, and in Quebec, a more specific feeling that they want to vote for a party that can actually play a part in a government if some sort of coalition comes.

Thats a very good point on Quebec. Though I think you and I are miles apart on the ideological scale, I'm sure we can agree, that if the NDP is able to put the last nail in the Bloc coffin, we as Canadians are better off.

Edited April 29, 2011 by Derek L

[Shady]

I think it favours the Conservatives. If they haven't been persuaded to the NDP by now, they won't be. They'll probably settle back to the Conservatives, and in some cases the Liberals. I even think that the NDP will lose voters in Quebec, who'll decided to migrate back to the Bloc after flirting with the NDP for a while.

[Smallc]

I think it's funny how you keep having to back a bit further away from earlier statements.

[Guest Derek L]

I think it favours the Conservatives. If they haven't been persuaded to the NDP by now, they won't be. They'll probably settle back to the Conservatives, and in some cases the Liberals. I even think that the NDP will lose voters in Quebec, who'll decided to migrate back to the Bloc after flirting with the NDP for a while.

Maybe, maybe not. I do doubt the sharp rise of both the NDP & undecided is simpatico, but you never know. I will say this though, if the 15-16% of voters splits along current polls, and the NDP and Tories recieve roughly a third of that 15%, it would put the Tories over 40%

[nittanylionstorm07]

I think it favours the Conservatives. If they haven't been persuaded to the NDP by now, they won't be. They'll probably settle back to the Conservatives, and in some cases the Liberals. I even think that the NDP will lose voters in Quebec, who'll decided to migrate back to the Bloc after flirting with the NDP for a while.

Shocking... and here I thought I was about to see cows start eating fish.

[RNG]

That’s a very good point on Quebec. Though I think you and I are miles apart on the ideological scale, I'm sure we can agree, that if the NDP is able to put the last nail in the Bloc coffin, we as Canadians are better off.

I'm not so sure. The Bloc just wants to separate Quebec, which I'm still not sure is such a bad thing. But the NDP want to tax and spend us to death.

[Smallc]

I'm not so sure. The Bloc just wants to separate Quebec, which I'm still not sure is such a bad thing.

If you're not sure that's such a bad thing, you're no better than any separatist.

[RNG]

If you're not sure that's such a bad thing, you're no better than any separatist.

I am willing to accept that. They get equal billing on our televised debates. They are not shot as traitors. It's my turn. They have cost me and mine so much over the years for what purpose? Let them go. But no freaking foreign aid for them.

[Wild Bill]

I agree about the Layton charisma, even a life long Tory such as myself thinks he's likeable and as I've said about the NDP before, I tend to feel their platform, though maybe meaning well, would do serious harm to Canada. I guess it will depend if the undecided voter looks past Layton and examines his parties platform closer and likes or dislikes it.

If Charisma alone is a determing factor for the average undecided voter, I'd say the election is Layton's to lose.

"Serious harm to Canada"? I would agree. However, the experience might be a painful but necessary thing.

I'm a great believer in populism. I understand that the average voter today is not that well educated on the differences between the parties. Having the NDP in power would be a very quick and painful lesson, as jobs fled the country in droves!

Sometimes, people have to make mistakes in order to learn. If an NDP government proved to be similar to that of Bob Rae's in Ontario, vast numbers of Canadians would get a quick object lesson on how much the wrong party COULD hurt their individual lives! When they lose their job and taxes go up they will understand all too well.

It's possible that an NDP government would change its stripes and become sensible but I doubt it. They just don't have enough sensible people in their caucus. They think that if they need money just find another business to tax!

Either way, Canada would benefit. They would either get the government of their dreams, where we would all have a well-paying job with a light tax load on the pay cheque or we would have a government of nightmares, which would give us a necessary education.

Let it happen, I say! I'm tired of opinions instead of established facts! It would be great to have things proven one way or the other by reality!

[Smallc]

They have cost me and mine so much over the years for what purpose?

You and yours? So what? Why? They're part of Canada. They get only money that they're entitled to as part of Canada. You don't like it, you can leave. You don't get to choose for them.

[punked]

At this stag in the game undecideds usually distribute themselves evenly among decideds.

[cybercoma]

I'm just curious. Other than Bob Rae's abortion as premier, have any other NDP provinical government chased jobs away?

[Battletoads]

"Serious harm to Canada"? I would agree. However, the experience might be a painful but necessary thing.

Well voters forget... For instance the last Tory majority 'did serious harm to Canada', and yet voters are flirting with another majority.

[eyeball]

If Charisma alone is a determing factor for the average undecided voter, I'd say the election is Layton's to lose.

Charisma is a powerful force especially I think for anyone yearning to vote for something instead of against. Jack Layton has not just struck a chord, he is the chord.

I'm going to go put on a Moody Blues disc and let everyone clean the puke off their keyboards.

[Battletoads]

Any regional breakdowns of the undecided?

It could be that they are clustered somewhere the NDP/Cons/Libs have strong support, indicating trouble for that party.

[eyeball]

"Serious harm to Canada"? I would agree. However, the experience might be a painful but necessary thing.

I went into this election thinking the same thing about a Harper majority and socially conservative right-wing governments in general.

If that is the scenario I'll have to hope it's attended by them winning a majority with what could be the smallest percentage of the popular vote in history

If this coincided with what could also be the biggest turnout in a long time there is little else that would rub our noses in the silliness of our FPTP system faster.

Whatever happens, bring it on.

[cybercoma]

All people need to know about the undecideds is the fact that the NDP has over 50% support, well beyond the other parties, when it comes to voters' combined first and second choices. That should give you a clue as to whom the undecideds are leaning towards.

[YEGmann]

I'm just curious. Other than Bob Rae's abortion as premier, have any other NDP provinical government chased jobs away?

Nova Scotia under Dexter.

Taxes go up, businesses go down. There is lots closures in one year.

[Guest Derek L]

"Serious harm to Canada"? I would agree. However, the experience might be a painful but necessary thing.

I'm a great believer in populism. I understand that the average voter today is not that well educated on the differences between the parties. Having the NDP in power would be a very quick and painful lesson, as jobs fled the country in droves!

Sometimes, people have to make mistakes in order to learn. If an NDP government proved to be similar to that of Bob Rae's in Ontario, vast numbers of Canadians would get a quick object lesson on how much the wrong party COULD hurt their individual lives! When they lose their job and taxes go up they will understand all too well.

It's possible that an NDP government would change its stripes and become sensible but I doubt it. They just don't have enough sensible people in their caucus. They think that if they need money just find another business to tax!

Either way, Canada would benefit. They would either get the government of their dreams, where we would all have a well-paying job with a light tax load on the pay cheque or we would have a government of nightmares, which would give us a necessary education.

Let it happen, I say! I'm tired of opinions instead of established facts! It would be great to have things proven one way or the other by reality!

You do make some good points, none the less, I'm glad I locked in my mortgage rate last year at 3.74% over five, and plan to keep in touch with my fellow over at Wood Gundy on Monday (A bottle of JWBlue = personal cell number)

[Smallc]

Nova Scotia under Dexter.

Taxes go up, businesses go down. There is lots closures in one year.

Nova Scotia was a basket case long before Dexter. Dexter did what needed to be done to balance the budget and protect essential social services. That's all that he really could do. It's called laying the foundation for the future.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Nova Scotia under Dexter.

Taxes go up, businesses go down. There is lots closures in one year.

lol

Conservatives: We want less spending and balanced budgets!!! ...unless someone else does it!

Edited April 29, 2011 by nittanylionstorm07