NDP Leads Bloc in Quebec

[August1991]

Never before seen in Canadian politics, the New Democratic Party has jumped to the top of the heap in Quebec, ahead of even the Bloc Québécois.

A new poll released by CROP, published in La Presse Thursday, shows that the NDP is the choice for 36 per cent of survey respondents, compared to 31 per cent for the Bloc. The Tories and Liberals trail at 17- and 13 per cent support respectively.

If the support holds it could lead to a breakthrough for the left wing party in the province.

Toronto Star

This CROP poll is based on a weird online sample and the pollster is not prepared to give a margin of error. But even you doubt it, there's the nightly Nanos poll:

The NDP, meanwhile, is at 22.1 per cent – up from 19.8 per cent the night before. The Bloc Québécois is at 7.5 per cent and the Green Party is at 3.4 per cent.

G&M

The Bloc across Canada at 7.5%? WTF?

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Several weeks ago, no one would have predicted this. But of course, in hindsight, many will claim to have seen it coming or even to say that it was due to Layton's debate performance. The problem with this is that Layton appeared in the debates in 2008 and this didn't happen then.

Here's my take.

The Bloc core support is around 30% or so. These are people who want Quebec to become a country. (It's important to note that these people are often ambivalent about voting in a federal election. To some, it's tantamount to collaborationa and to others, the issue must be decided in Quebec.)

In Quebec, there are also hard core federalists who typically vote Liberal. They are the anglos/allophones and some francos.

In between, there are many, many people who are absolutely fed up of this debate and seriously want to change the channel. At various times, they have toyed with the ADQ, Harper's Conservatives, Québec Solidaire, François Legault and now it`s the NDP`s turn.

The great thing about the NDP is that in Quebec, it`s inoffensive. You can say you support the NDP and federalists aren`t angry and the hard core sovereigntists will begrudge it.

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Will the NDP get any seats in Quebec? According to the CROP poll above, the NDP is at 40% in Montreal. To get this number, they are drawing both from the "people fed up of the national question debate" and from traditional federalists.

Fait intéressant, le NPD domine dans la région métropolitaine de Montréal avec 40% des intentions de vote, loin devant le Bloc québécois qui arrive deuxième avec 28%. Le Parti libéral est troisième avec 17% et le Parti conservateur dernier avec 12%.

La Presse

Now, this Montreal number is a small subsample of a wonky poll so the numbers have a wide margin of error. But if they are even remotely accurate (and new polls will have to confirm this), then the NDP will win more than Outremont on May 2nd.

I recall after the 1984 election when people in Quebec woke up and suddenly saw all these strange names as their MPs.

[Smallc]

There's also the EKOS poll which pretty much echoed the results of the CROP poll.

[August1991]

There's also the EKOS poll which pretty much echoed the results of the CROP poll.

This is the link:

Jack Layton’s New Democratic Party has surged past the Gilles Duceppe’s faltering Bloc Québécois and is now in first place in Quebec, according to a poll conducted by Ekos Research and iPolitics.

The poll, conducted earlier this week, found the New Democrats have jumped 10 percentage points since the eve of the leaders debate to 31.4 per cent while the Bloc has dropped by 3.9 percentage points to 27.2 per cent.

The Liberals have dropped to 15.5 per cent while the Conservatives are holding steady at 18.4 per cent.

While the margin of error is higher at the city level due to the smaller sample size, in Montreal the NDP is at 33.7 per cent while the Bloc is at 30.3 per cent. The Liberals are in third place at 18.7 per cent while the Conservative trail in the Montreal area at 8.4 per cent.

...

The poll is based on telephone interviews, on landlines and cellphones, using Interactive Voice Response technology between April 18-20 with 2,156 respondents and is considered accurate to within 2.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

ipolitics

More polls will have to confirm this but the trend is obvious. The Bloc is around 7% in cross-Canada polls.

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I had a chance to talk to colleagues/family today, and read comments on Internet forums. Frankly, everyone is surprised.

The convinced Jacques Parizeau sovereigntists are sputtering about how incoherent this switch is. The NDP favours centralizing power in Ottawa! Layton agreed with the loan guarantee to Newfoundland.

Others have said that Layton is "cool". By this, I understood that it is easy/safe to say that one supports the NDP and Layton. It neither antagonizes federalists nor angers sovereigntists/separatists. (It is impossible/difficult/courageous to say publicly that you support the Conservatives in Montreal. If you say that you are a Liberal, you are immediately defined. By saying that you're voting NDP, your intentions are still flou.)

No one knows anything about Layton, or the NDP. No one knows who the NDP candidate in their riding is. To use an American expression that I once heard, people are buying a pig in a poke.

Or, to put this in terms English-Canadians might understand, imagine that Canada was part of the United States and the choice of candidates was between several Southerners with thick drawls, and Bob Rae. You're fed up of Bob Rae and his same old story. So, you pick one of the southerners, almost randomly.

This NDP support in Quebec could disappear in a flash.

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IMV, like in the 1950s, Quebec society is now undergoing changes. In the 1950s, the birth rate started to fall and then Duplessis died in 1959 - and Quebec society changed. Once again, in this early 21st century, Quebec is changing. Maybe it's demographics. Dunno. But this current change is very different from teh 1960 change and is as confusing to the Quebec elite as the change in 1960 was to Quebec's elite at the time.

Trudeau wrote an excellent paper about this.

I will go back to my original idea. Many (but not all) francophone Quebecers are looking for a "third way". They want a practical way out of this federalist/nationalist debate. They are tired of Parizeau and Trudeau. For the moment, Jack Layton is the easy solution.

Edited April 22, 2011 by August1991

[betsy]

No wonder Diuceppe was short-tempered this morning when he was being questioned about Jack.

[Slim MacSquinty]

OK who looks like the stupidest guy in the room now? Bob Rae, hey where is Bob these days anyways? Heck if he stayed where he was he coulda been a contender!

HA!

[Moonbox]

I hate to say it but I think it's almost time that Harper starts taking Jack seriously. In about a week he's turned himself from a distant third to a strong second and you have to worry that the momentum could continue. Layton doing well in BC and Quebec could actually lose the conservatives some seats rather than split the vote and kill the Liberals like they were hoping.