Federal Election Polls

[Dave_ON]

Just a rough estimate, but with numbers like that, we would probably be looking at this:

CPC: 129

NDP: 111

LPC: 52

BQ: 15

GRN: 1

Sorry but any model that awards the Greens a seat is inherently flawed as it clearly fails to account for the lack of concentrated support the Greens have.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Sorry but any model that awards the Greens a seat is inherently flawed as it clearly fails to account for the lack of concentrated support the Greens have.

?

Saanich-Gulf Islands?

That's all that's based off of.

[Shady]

Looking at the latest numbers from Ontario, I'd say something like this is in order...

CPC: 152

NDP: 79

LPC: 55

BQ: 20

GRN: 0

[ToadBrother]

Looking at the latest numbers from Ontario, I'd say something like this is in order...

CPC: 152

NDP: 79

LPC: 55

BQ: 20

GRN: 0

Fantasy. There's no way the Tories are going to hang on to that many seats.

[Shady]

Fantasy. There's no way the Tories are going to hang on to that many seats.

Nope. The only fantasy is the NDP winning a majority government.

[ToadBrother]

Nope. The only fantasy is the NDP winning a majority government.

I agree. That's a total fantasy as well. In fact, I think them actually outright winning a minority is a bridge too long for me.

However, there are interesting things being said in liberal land:

http://www.canada.com/news/decision-canada/Ignatieff+leaves+door+open+possible+Liberal+merger/4683381/story.html

If the NDP and Liberals can, combined get a majority, I still think that option will still very much be in play.

[nittanylionstorm07]

New EKOS

CPC 34.0%

NDP 28.1%

LPC 22.9%

BQ 6.6%

GRN 6.5%

OTH 1.9%

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_april_27_2011.pdf

[Shady]

New Nanos:

Conservatives 37.8%

NDP 27.8%

Liberal 22.9%

Of all the hysteria over the supposed NDP wave, the Liberals are only 5% behind them, and closing.

[ToadBrother]

New Nanos:

Conservatives 37.8%

NDP 27.8%

Liberal 22.9%

Of all the hysteria over the supposed NDP wave, the Liberals are only 5% behind them, and closing.

Nanos, the worst of the lot.

If it helps you sleep better.

[Shady]

Nanos, the worst of the lot.

If it helps you sleep better.

Attacking the messenger. Sad.

[nittanylionstorm07]

New Nanos:

Conservatives 37.8%

NDP 27.8%

Liberal 22.9%

Of all the hysteria over the supposed NDP wave, the Liberals are only 5% behind them, and closing.

They're closing?

Here is the change from the previous Nanos poll:

Conservatives -1.4%

NDP +4.2%

Liberals -2.7%

BQ -0.7%

I suppose they are "closing" if by "closing" you mean "closing up shop"...

Do you understand polling at all? Math?

[Harry]

EKOS - April 27

Cons - 34%

NDP - 28.1%

Libs - 22.9%

http://ipolitics.ca/2011/04/27/ekos-ipolitics-poll-liberals-slipping-tories-and-ndp-hold-steady/

[Shady]

EKOS - April 27

Cons - 34%

NDP - 28.1%

Libs - 22.9%

http://ipolitics.ca/2011/04/27/ekos-ipolitics-poll-liberals-slipping-tories-and-ndp-hold-steady/

Nanos:

Conservatives 37.8%

NDP 27.8%

Liberal 22.9%

[jbg]

Angus Reid poll april 27th cpc-35 ndp-30 lpc-22.. those are minority numbers for conservatives...

in quebec ndp-38% bloc 27%... a couple of points more and it could be a massive wave of orange...

Unless it's super-concentrated in Montreal, which is my instinct. Getting 80% of a riding is great for percentage numbers in polls, not so great in terms of ridings.

[Harry]

Most Recent polling:

Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / LIbs / Bloc

Apr 27 / EKOS / 34% / 28.1% / 22.9% / 6.6%

Apr 27 / Forum / 34% / 31% / 22% / NDP now within 3% of first place - what is margin of error here?

Apr 26 / Nanos / 37.8% / 27.8% / 22.9% / 5.8%

Apr 26 / Angus R / 35% / 30% / 22% / 5% NDP within 5% of 1st place

Apr 25 / EKOS / 33.9% / 27.9% / 24% / 6%

Apr 24 / EKOS / 33.7% / 28% / 23.7% / 6.2%

Apr 24 / Nanos / 39.2% / 23.6% / 25.6% /

Apr 21 / Envi / 39% / 25% / 22% /

Apr 20 / Ipsos / 43% / 24% / 21% / 6%

Apr 16 / Angus R / 36% / 25% / 25% /

[Smallc]

The NDP still has the momentum. Amazing.

[Smallc]

Unless it's super-concentrated in Montreal, which is my instinct.

But it isn't. It's also in Gatineau, the Eastern Townships, and some areas of Quebec City.

[TimG]

It appears that Layton has promised to repudiate the clarity act.

Is there anything this guy won't give to sovereigntists to get votes?

It is sickening.

[Harry]

Unless it's super-concentrated in Montreal, which is my instinct. Getting 80% of a riding is great for percentage numbers in polls, not so great in terms of ridings.

You're confused, and probably thinking of the wasted super concentrations that Harper has in many seats in Alberta.

Edited April 27, 2011 by Harry

[BubberMiley]

Ooops...my point was made in the post above.

Edited April 27, 2011 by BubberMiley

[ToadBrother]

It appears that Layton has promised to repudiate the clarity act.

Is there anything this guy won't give to sovereigntists to get votes?

It is sickening.

Could you cite this one?

[TimG]

Could you cite this one?

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/04/27/matt-gurney-layton-needs-to-decide-what-he-values-more-canada-or-quebec-votes/

Also, the NDP would recognize a majority decision (50% + 1) of the Quebec people in the event of a referendum on the political status of Quebec. The NDP recognizes as well that the right to self-determination implies that Assemble nationale is able to write a referendum question and that the citizens of Quebec are able to answer it freely.

[Smallc]

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/04/27/matt-gurney-layton-needs-to-decide-what-he-values-more-canada-or-quebec-votes/

He said that to placate soft nationalists. It was the right thing to say.

Edited April 27, 2011 by Smallc

[TimG]

He said that to placate soft nationalists. It was the right thing to say.

Neither the Liberals or the Torys said it and they wanted those votes too. Basically, the NDP appears to have adopted all of the BQ policies. No wonder they are doing so well in Quebec. I thought the NDP advances would be good for unity but the NDP has just sold out country by caving into all of the BQ demands.

Can you give me one tangible policy where the NDP differs from the BQ other than the notional commitment to sovereignty? They look the same otherwise.

Edited April 27, 2011 by TimG

[capricorn]

It appears that Layton has promised to repudiate the clarity act.

Is there anything this guy won't give to sovereigntists to get votes?

It is sickening.

Jack will give to the Bloc something they have consistently demanded. That the French language law be extended to all federal and federally regulated institutions, such as banks and communications companies, located in Quebec.

The Bloc Quebecois has been focusing more of its attacks on Layton, calling him a hard-line federalist and accusing him of ducking questions about Quebec rights.

For example, Layton has consistently refused to answer a yes-or-no question directly — whether he supports the Bloc's push to replace bilingualism in federal workplaces in Quebec with the more stringent provisions of Quebec's Bill 101, which requires French to be the official language in the workplace.

During the debates, Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe tried to pin him on the issue, and Layton replied that he supports the right of people to speak French in Quebec workplaces.

He continued that line Thursday when pressed by reporters.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5hox-PBVnYnOAPgv92tpxrMVbFLqA?docId=6632619

"We want the principles of the [Quebec] language charter to apply to federally regulated workplaces," Layton said.

"Here's the story," Layton said. "If you're working for a provincially regulated financial institution ... if your first language is French, you have the right to work in French, to have your contract be presented to you ... your instructions as to what you're supposed to do, in your first language so you can understand them.

"If across the corner you're working at La Banque Nationale …, you don't have those rights. It doesn't make sense."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/26/cv-election-constitution-042611.html

How that would impact those federal institutions that also operate in the ROC, well it looks like that's an angle Layton hasn't thought of.