Federal Election Polls

[wyly]

Laytons attack ads which started early in the campaign are cartoony yet witty. The liberals attack ads are gloomy, and "scary". The tories have both witty and scary attack ads.

Personally I prefer the ndp attack ads even though I disagree with their policies, they're just better made.

they're critical without being super nasty...maybe it was a conscious decision to look like moderate and polite nice guys...they might have a 2nd set of adds with a harder edge in reserve if they thought it was necessary to use them...

[cybercoma]

I'm asking a question. Do you have an better reason as to why Graves is consistently so wrong?

I posted why the predictors are wrong. You keep ignoring it. The predictions are "sticky". End of story. It under-represents parties gaining seats (NDP) and it over-represents parties that may lose seats (BQ). The CPC were historically under-represented because they were in the process of gaining seats. The LPC was over-represented because they were in the process of losing seats. This election will be a very different story with the NDP under-represented. Who they're stealing seats from, besides BQ remains to be seen.

Edited April 26, 2011 by cybercoma

[wyly]

I posted why the predictors are wrong. You keep ignoring it. The predictions are "sticky". End of story. It under-represents parties gaining seats (NDP) and it over-represents parties that may lose seats (BQ). The CPC were historically under-represented because they were in the process of gaining seats. The LPC was over-represented because they were in the process of losing seats. This election will be a very different story with the NDP under-represented. Who they're stealing seats from, besides BQ remains to be seen.

which pretty much agrees what I heard nik nanos say when asked about seat predictions, he wouldn't go there as there is no precedent for what we're seeing...I think he called it voodoo mathematics...

[wyly]

I posted why the predictors are wrong. You keep ignoring it. The predictions are "sticky". End of story. It under-represents parties gaining seats (NDP) and it over-represents parties that may lose seats (BQ). The CPC were historically under-represented because they were in the process of gaining seats. The LPC was over-represented because they were in the process of losing seats. This election will be a very different story with the NDP under-represented. Who they're stealing seats from, besides BQ remains to be seen.

ya there are conservatives overly sure of a majority thinking that the liberals and ndp will split the vote and conservatives will come up the middle...but that same scenario can work in the ndp's favour as well, with liberal and conservatives splitting votes and ndp coming up the middle...

[August1991]

The NDP aren't going to win 100 seats, they're just not. They may get 50 but I'd be shocked if they got more then that. Their Qc. numbers are inflating their national numbers. Outside Qc. their numbers are normal, they're not gaining in Ont which is the most important province to do well in. The Tories are about 20 pts ahead in Ont.

That number in the Ekos/iPolitics poll is based largely in Quebec.

If you take the Quebec regional breakdown in popular votes and put it into Quebec, you get roughly (in seat count):

Bloc 14

CPC 2

Lib 6

NDP 53

IOW, about half the NDP caucus would come from Quebec. If this were to happen, the NDP caucus would quickly turn into a mess. Few Quebec voters know who their NDP candidate is. (They are "hydro poll" candidates in that they are just names on election signs.)

The NDP also has no way to deliver the vote on May 2nd. The PQ/Bloc have organizations on the ground. The Quebec Liberal party is helping the PLC and CPC. Quebec unions are supporting the Bloc.

But strange things happen. In 1958 and 1984, Quebec dramatically shifted. In this case though, I think it's a wonky poll and while the NDP is doing well in Quebec, it's not doing that well. It may also be peaking too soon.

There's a week to go.

Edited April 26, 2011 by August1991

[Wild Bill]

ya there are conservatives overly sure of a majority thinking that the liberals and ndp will split the vote and conservatives will come up the middle...but that same scenario can work in the ndp's favour as well, with liberal and conservatives splitting votes and ndp coming up the middle...

Maybe possible Mr. Wyly but I don't think it likely. The reason is that the Tory support is just too solid! Most of it doesn't waver. It's not likely that the NDP and the Liberals are pulling any votes away from the Tories, or at least not many.

Between each other is a different story! Voters have switched between the Liberals and the NDP since the NDP was first formed!

So suppose the Tory vote holds firm at 40%. The other two steal from each other and theoretically achieve a balance of 30% each. The Tory candidate wins!

For either the Liberal or the NDP candidate to win he or she would have to beat the solid 40% of his Tory opponent. Anything less than 41% might beat his other rival but NOT the Tory one!

No, this NDP surge is the best thing that could have happened for Harper and the WORST for Ignatieff! The Tories will gain more seats, perhaps even a majority. The Liberals are going to lose, big time! The BQ as well. That means the NDP can't help but grow their seat count. Winning Loyal Opposition status is not unlikely at all!

As I've said before, this can be a good thing for Canada! Hopefully the NDP will seize the opportunity to mature, lose their flakiness and modernize. The Liberals will either re-invent themselves or just die! Many of us won't care either way.

The Bloc can just go piss up a rope in a high wind, for all I care!

[Bryan]

I posted why the predictors are wrong. You keep ignoring it.

I'm not talking about the seat breakdown, I already said essentially the same thing you did, more than once.

I'm talking about the voter intention percentages. Why is it that Graves consistently reports CPC support as being far lower than what they really get? His final poll before last election said CPC - 34.8, they got 37.6.

To be fair, yes, I'm awarre that every pollster always shows CPC support lower than it really is, and always shows left support (especially NDP and Green) as higher than it really is. EKOS is just more extreme in that regard. Like I said, TODAY, Nanos has CPC at 39.2, Environics has CPC at 39 too, but Graves has 33.7.

Edited April 26, 2011 by Bryan

[August1991]

I think there's an infectious spontaneity that grips people when they sense a historical cultural/political shift they want to be part of not unlike how small protests in eygpt and tunsia kept growing and growing spreading across all demographics....

In finance, this is referred to as a speculative bubble or irrational exuberance. Rarely does it do much good and the smart money bails out early...

[punked]

That number in the Ekos/iPolitics poll is based largely in Quebec.

If you take the Quebec regional breakdown in popular votes and put it into Quebec, you get roughly (in seat count):

Bloc 14

CPC 2

Lib 6

NDP 53

IOW, about half the NDP caucus would come from Quebec. If this were to happen, the NDP caucus would quickly turn into a mess. Few Quebec voters know who their NDP candidate is. (They are "hydro poll" candidates in that they are just names on election signs.)

The NDP also has no way to deliver the vote on May 2nd. The PQ/Bloc have organizations on the ground. The Quebec Liberal party is helping the PLC and CPC. Quebec unions are supporting the Bloc.

But strange things happen. In 1958 and 1984, Quebec dramatically shifted. In this case though, I think it's a wonky poll and while the NDP is doing well in Quebec, it's not doing that well. It may also be peaking too soon.

There's a week to go.

In times a big change you don't need to pull your vote. Get out the vote can only change poll numbers 2-3% at most if you are winning big your GOTV doesn't have to be great.

[August1991]

In times a big change you don't need to pull your vote. Get out the vote can only change poll numbers 2-3% at most if you are winning big your GOTV doesn't have to be great.

The NDP support in Quebec is not committed at all. It's fickle. A small gaffe and it would quickly change. (I almost wonder if many people are not playing a joke on the pollsters.)

Similarly, people will say on the phone to a computer that they will vote NDP but that doesn't mean that they'll go to the polling station. So, getting out the vote matters.

With that said, what I find striking is that in my anecdotal experience, some committed sovereigntists are now saying that they will vote NDP. (I don't quite understand why... ) That would confirm a Bloc number around 25%.

[Harry]

The thing is there were 2 polls out this afternoon, EKOS and Environics, both showing this NDP surge growing into a tsunami. Not only are the NDP not peaking yet, the NDP has a growing momentum - could Layton actually overtake Harper and win the most number of seats.

Tomorrow should be another interesting day as EKOS is out with another poll and more details.

There will always be naysayers, but it seems Canadians want a different kind of politics, which is very easy to understand.

And it looks like the fundamentalists may be staying home and not voting for Harper this time over the abortion issue.

Most people have now made up their mind but people like to go with winners, and with the NDP closing in on Harper, what is it now, less than 6% spread, and a lot of voters may very well jump on the NDP bandwagon.

Edited April 26, 2011 by Harry

[punked]

The NDP support in Quebec is not committed at all. It's fickle. A small gaffe and it would quickly change. (I almost wonder if many people are not playing a joke on the pollsters.)

Similarly, people will say on the phone to a computer that they will vote NDP but that doesn't mean that they'll go to the polling station. So, getting out the vote matters.

With that said, what I find striking is that in my anecdotal experience, some committed sovereigntists are now saying that they will vote NDP. (I don't quite understand why... ) That would confirm a Bloc number around 25%.

You have shown many times in this thread you don't understand the NDP support in Quebec, or why people are leaning toward them. When you stop being wrong about the numbers we can talk. GOTV wont matter in this type of situation, people aren't unmotivated they may be fickle but they will go vote. GOTV only gets the unmotivated out, they don't change minds.

Edited April 26, 2011 by punked

[Harry]

punked of course is correct August.

[nittanylionstorm07]

lol @ Tories and hardcore Liberal supporters still downplaying the NDP surge.

It's like a ship sinking and the captain and crew report that nothing's wrong with the ship.

[TimG]

You have shown many times in this thread you don't understand the NDP support in Quebec, or why people are leaning toward them. When you stop being wrong about the numbers we can talk.

Frankly, I don't think _anyone_ understands what is going on. NDP supporters will obviously assume that Quebequers have suddenly "seen the light" but I don't think it is that simple.

[Harry]

Frankly, I don't think _anyone_ understands what is going on. NDP supporters will obviously assume that Quebequers have suddenly "seen the light" but I don't think it is that simple.

Did it ever occur to you that maybe, just maybe, the NDP policies are very popular with Canadians including Quebeckers. And as well the NDP has a likeable leader. It's not rocket science.

Edited April 26, 2011 by Harry

[punked]

Frankly, I don't think _anyone_ understands what is going on. NDP supporters will obviously assume that Quebequers have suddenly "seen the light" but I don't think it is that simple.

I agree we will know on May 2 but I will tell you as an NDPer I am super stoked.

[Evening Star]

Did it ever occur to you that maybe, just maybe, the NDP policies are very popular with Canadians including Quebeckers. And as well the NDP has a likeable leader. It's not rocket science.

But they've had the same leader for years and their policy priorities have remained similar. So I do think it's a good question exactly why they're resonating so much right now.

[punked]

But they've had the same leader for years and their policy priorities have remained similar. So I do think it's a good question exactly why they're resonating so much right now.

Because Quebec hates the war more then anything and the NDP scream everytime it comes up. The other parties don't they support it. Really Quebec only has one choice as far as Afghanistan goes.

[wyly]

Maybe possible Mr. Wyly but I don't think it likely. The reason is that the Tory support is just too solid! Most of it doesn't waver. It's not likely that the NDP and the Liberals are pulling any votes away from the Tories, or at least not many.

Between each other is a different story! Voters have switched between the Liberals and the NDP since the NDP was first formed!

So suppose the Tory vote holds firm at 40%. The other two steal from each other and theoretically achieve a balance of 30% each. The Tory candidate wins!

For either the Liberal or the NDP candidate to win he or she would have to beat the solid 40% of his Tory opponent. Anything less than 41% might beat his other rival but NOT the Tory one!

No, this NDP surge is the best thing that could have happened for Harper and the WORST for Ignatieff! The Tories will gain more seats, perhaps even a majority. The Liberals are going to lose, big time! The BQ as well. That means the NDP can't help but grow their seat count. Winning Loyal Opposition status is not unlikely at all!

As I've said before, this can be a good thing for Canada! Hopefully the NDP will seize the opportunity to mature, lose their flakiness and modernize. The Liberals will either re-invent themselves or just die! Many of us won't care either way.

The Bloc can just go piss up a rope in a high wind, for all I care!

well first of all other than in alberta i doubt there will be many ridings with the conservatives at 40%...second it has to be looked at riding by riding, in Quebec city it's a close bloc/con/ndp three way race...third you're assuming a former conservative vote can't go directly to a ndp candidate but only to a liberal...

as far as the bloc is concerned i hold no animosity toward them, we live in a democracy and self determination is their right whether we like it or not...if quebec chooses to leave the federation to bad so sad and good luck, no hard feelings every family has children leave the nest...

[mikedavid00]

if quebec chooses to leave the federation to bad so sad and good luck, no hard feelings every family has children leave the nest...

I agree.

Once you spend time in Montreal you can't help but to realize they are a different culture and separate people than the rest of Canada.

Also they are a burden on us and it would be best they separate so they can learn some hard lessons on taxes and spending.

[wyly]

In times a big change you don't need to pull your vote. Get out the vote can only change poll numbers 2-3% at most if you are winning big your GOTV doesn't have to be great.

true, grant devine conservatives defeated the governing ndp without any strong support, it was spontaneous change that even the conservatives were caught by surprise...

[wyly]

I agree.

Once you spend time in Montreal you can't help but to realize they are a different culture and separate people than the rest of Canada.

Also they are a burden on us and it would be best they separate so they can learn some hard lessons on taxes and spending.

i have kids that are financial burden on me and mrs wyly one is a real hellion which if she left would leave our home a much more peaceful place but I still love her like the others, she's just a different character...when she or quebec leave I won't hold any grudges and wish her/quebec all the best (and I'll save a few $$$ )...

[punked]

true, grant devine conservatives defeated the governing ndp without any strong support, it was spontaneous change that even the conservatives were caught by surprise...

Roy Romanow Lost to a gas station attendant in that election. You can't tell me a gas station in their 20s had a better GOTV then Roy Romanow. Those things don't matter when you have movement.

[wyly]

Roy Romanow Lost to a gas station attendant in that election. You can't tell me a gas station in their 20s had a better GOTV then Roy Romanow. Those things don't matter when you have movement.

exactly the movement can outgrow the the party...I lived in sask at the time it was a shocker, the gas station attendant was intended as cannon fodder no one else wanted to run against a giant of Romanow's political stature but the impossible happened...