Federal Election Polls

[TimG]

The NDP are a break through party it always has been, now it is the job of the other parties to figure out how to stop them or they will shoot threw the roof.

The NDP has a good chance of eating into BQ support and may pick up quite a few seats (<20). They may pick up a few extra seats in TO and Vancouver (<10) and few in the Martimes (<10). At that point they would have hit the limit of their potential vote and no where near government. Edited April 21, 2011 by TimG

[Harry]

The NDP has a good chance of eating into BQ support and may pick up quite a few seats (<20). They may pick up a few extra seats in TO and Vancouver (<10) and few in the Martimes (<10). At that point they would have hit the limit of their potential vote and no where near government. Most people are not stupid enough to allow someone as fiscally irresponsible as Layton near the federal purse strings.

That must be why the NDP are now only 11% back of the Tories and in close pursuit. If you are going to make an argument at least provide some facts to back it up, otherwise people will realize you are talking through your hat.

Surging NDP support changes campaign dynamic

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/21/cv-election-ndp-quebec-803.html#

[punked]

The NDP has a good chance of eating into BQ support and may pick up quite a few seats (<20). They may pick up a few extra seats in TO and Vancouver (<10) and few in the Martimes (<10). At that point they would have hit the limit of their potential vote and no where near government.

You know they are tied with the Cons in Manitoba and Sask according to the new Ekos poll right? Listen in NS they kept saying the NDP might get just enough seats to form government they broke through that number like no bodies business. I aint saying they are going win every seat in the country but nothing is out of play now for any party. This election just got real.

[M.Dancer]

That must be why the NDP are now only 11% back of the Tories and in close pursuit. If you are going to make an argument at least provide some facts to back it up, otherwise people will realize you are talking through your hat.

The thing is, surging support in Quebec doesn't mean squat. The Conservatives only have 11 or so seats, and they are becoming increasingly safer as the NDP bleeds support away from the Bloc.

[TimG]

I aint saying they are going win every seat in the country but nothing is out of play now for any party. This election just got real.

They could replace the Libs as official opposition.

[capricorn]

That must be why the NDP are now only 11% back of the Tories and in close pursuit.

If Canadians sensed that the NDP was in striking distance of forming government, they'd recoil very quickly.

[Dave_ON]

The thing is, surging support in Quebec doesn't mean squat. The Conservatives only have 11 or so seats, and they are becoming increasingly safer as the NDP bleeds support away from the Bloc.

Not so sure the CPC are safe, the new polls are showing an interesting trend in the Prairies where the CPC and NDP are neck and neck. BC is also a key battle ground between the two.

[Smallc]

If Canadians sensed that the NDP was in striking distance of forming government, they'd recoil very quickly.

I'm not sure that's true anymore.

[M.Dancer]

Not so sure the CPC are safe, the new polls are showing an interesting trend in the Prairies where the CPC and NDP are neck and neck. BC is also a key battle ground between the two.

I would view any poll that shows that as suspect...

[punked]

If Canadians sensed that the NDP was in striking distance of forming government, they'd recoil very quickly.

They say that in every province once the NDP start doing good, but instead the opposite happens more people jump on board when they think the NDP might win. That is the truth.

[cybercoma]

The thing is, surging support in Quebec doesn't mean squat. The Conservatives only have 11 or so seats, and they are becoming increasingly safer as the NDP bleeds support away from the Bloc.

Why does that make them safer? If anything it's a zero sum equation. However, I suspect they Conservatives are going to pay for the arena fiasco in Quebec City. So, you might be looking at a problem. To say it's making the Conservatives safer makes no sense whatsoever.

[TimG]

Why does that make them safer? If anything it's a zero sum equation. However, I suspect they Conservatives are going to pay for the arena fiasco in Quebec City. So, you might be looking at a problem. To say it's making the Conservatives safer makes no sense whatsoever.

It does if the NDP splits the BQ vote which it appears to be doing. CPC support in Quebec has not shifted much.

[nittanylionstorm07]

The NDP has a good chance of eating into BQ support and may pick up quite a few seats (<20). They may pick up a few extra seats in TO and Vancouver (<10) and few in the Martimes (<10). At that point they would have hit the limit of their potential vote and no where near government.

You are extremely underestimating the seat swing on all fronts. Quebec is about to be painted orange. The NDP is sharply on the rise in liberal areas of BC. Nova Scotia is going to go orange, and NL will see at least one seat go orange... NB is in play as well. The Prairies-AB are showing a nicely sized uptick in NDP support with them trailing the Cons only slightly, and Alberta has them as the second party. Ontario is the only one where the outcome is really unknown at this point, but they are moving.

NDP could be looking at least at 85-95 seats. The Bloc could be down to 25-35 seats, and the Libs are going to be thrashing in the 50s or 60s (if they are lucky). We're looking at something around 130 CPC, 90 NDP, 55 Lib, 32 Bloc, 1 G

The thing is, surging support in Quebec doesn't mean squat. The Conservatives only have 11 or so seats, and they are becoming increasingly safer as the NDP bleeds support away from the Bloc.

The Conservatives are meaningless in Quebec now. You can't say they are becoming "increasingly safer" as their support keeps dropping.

The NDP are by far the most popular party in the province now. You don't win 2 seats with a plurality of votes at 36%, especially considering Montreal is polling in the 40s for NDP support.

[nittanylionstorm07]

It does if the NDP splits the BQ vote which it appears to be doing. CPC support in Quebec has not shifted much.

That would only make sense if the NDP vote was only comprised of shifted Bloc votes when in fact the Liberals are now in the trash can in favor of the NDP as well, and the Cons have also dropped.

The New NDP vote is a combination of votes from all places (previous NDP included, of course).

[TimG]

That would only make sense if the NDP vote was only comprised of shifted Bloc votes when in fact the Liberals are now in the trash can in favor of the NDP as well, and the Cons have also dropped.

Here is the seat count that goes with the EKOS poll:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/ndp-on-track-to-win-60-seats-poll-projects/article1994856/

Mr. Layton’s gains would come mostly in Quebec, where the poll projects the party moving from one seat to 14. It all comes at the expense of the separatist Bloc, which is projected to lose 15 seats.

The EKOS seat projections show, too, that the Conservatives would win 14 seats, three more than they have now.

As I said, the NDP is not threatening the CPC vote in Quebec.

[Harry]

Ipsos Reid

C - 43%

N - 24%

L - 21%

Beware this is a pollster that always give the Tories more support than any other pollster.

Edited April 21, 2011 by Harry

[TimG]

--

Edited April 21, 2011 by TimG

[nittanylionstorm07]

Here is the seat count that goes with the EKOS poll:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/ndp-on-track-to-win-60-seats-poll-projects/article1994856/

As I said, the NDP is not threatening the CPC vote in Quebec.

Remember, that is only an estimate based off of previous elections and vote to seat trends. The NDP have never been a factor in Quebec, and this is likely to throw the seat projections off by quite a bit in Quebec.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Ipsos Reid

C - 43%

N - 24%

L - 21%

Beware this is a pollster that always give the Tories more support than any other pollster.

That's two polls now showing NDP in second and a Bloc vote of 6% nationally. Con %age is ridiculously high.

[Harry]

Nanos Leadership Index

Harper leads, Layton firm second

Harper - 90.0, Down 2.8

Layton - 66.6, Down 10.2

Ignatieff - 36.7, Down 4.8

Duceppe - 15.3, Up 4.5

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110420-LeadershipE.pdf

[capricorn]

They say that in every province once the NDP start doing good, but instead the opposite happens more people jump on board when they think the NDP might win.

If you mean provincial NDP parties, I hesitate comparing the federal NDP to provincial NDP.

I don't think Canadians are ready to nationalize the banks and resource-based industries.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Nanos Leadership Index

Harper leads, Layton firm second

Harper - 90.0, Down 2.8

Layton - 66.6, Down 10.2

Ignatieff - 36.7, Down 4.8

Duceppe - 15.3, Up 4.5

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110420-LeadershipE.pdf

Weird... comparing the 04/19 numbers to 04/20, it seems like they managed to get a higher conservative and undecided sampling in 4/20. Doesn't flow with other trends.

[Wild Bill]

What an absurd comment. Minority governments are for people who want to work together. People like Harper need to get out of the way and let more civil people run the show.

Some would say that minority governments are for people who like debating, arguing, nit-picking and just bitching far more than actually DOING something!

There is an old joke that used to go around in diplomatic circles, particularly in Europe, about the "Canadian solution". The joke is in the definition of the phrase, which went like this:

"An American physicist discovers a new principle of physics. Six months later a German engineer thinks up an application for it and wins a Nobel prize.

Three months later a Japanese businessman hires the engineer and builds a factory using his principle in a consumer product, which begins to sell like crazy.

Two months after that the Japanese company re-locates to China. Production and profits soar!

Six YEARS after that Canada is still debating whether it's a federal or a provincial matter!"

[Bryan]

Ipsos Reid

C - 43%

N - 24%

L - 21%

Beware this is a pollster that always give the Tories more support than any other pollster.

Ipsos Reid's polling has a track record of UNDER reporting Conservative support compared to election day too though. To be fair, every pollster does, but I-R was 4% lower than what CPC actually got in 2008. They're not the only ones reporting that CPC support is over 40%, but they are the first ones showing NDP support being above the Liberals nationally. They're also confirming the Quebec tend showing the NDP surging there.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=10675

Quebec

N - 28%

B - 27%

C - 24%

L - 20%

[capricorn]

Bob Rae must be kicking himself for jumping to the Liberals instead of his natural home, the NDP.