Federal Election Polls

Bryan · April 13, 2011

Read 308.com's comments on Compas.

308.com is a blank placeholder. I assume you mean http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/ ?

without something to compare their results to, and with them coming to a very different conclusion than what other pollsters have found, the usefulness of this poll is very limited.

I agree here. There's no trend, just one surprising result. Interesting really only because it's so different.

Smallc · April 13, 2011

The EKOS poll is flawed.

It most definitely is. i took part in the poll. The poll is automated, and the first two prompts are Green Party and Liberal Party.

punked · April 13, 2011

It most definitely is. i took part in the poll. The poll is automated, and the first two prompts are Green Party and Liberal Party.

I think it switches the order every call. Although if it is 50% University Grads then yes there is a sampling error, however the NDP winning BC would be pretty nice.

ToadBrother · April 13, 2011

It most definitely is. i took part in the poll. The poll is automated, and the first two prompts are Green Party and Liberal Party.

I'm not sure how that makes it flawed, unless it's a chimpanzee answering the questions.

punked · April 13, 2011

I'm not sure how that makes it flawed, unless it's a chimpanzee answering the questions.

In automated polls the first party will always get a 5% bump which is why they should make the rotation of names random on every call.

Smallc · April 13, 2011

I'm not sure how that makes it flawed, unless it's a chimpanzee answering the questions.

It's been shown before that when people are prompted, they answer differently. If the prompts change order every call, that's different though, and I withdraw my observation

Edited April 13, 2011 by Smallc

Smallc · April 13, 2011

Although if it is 50% University Grads then yes there is a sampling error, however the NDP winning BC would be pretty nice.

Don't hold your breath.... :lol:

punked · April 13, 2011

Don't hold your breath....

Well they got some momentum that is for sure. The COMPAS poll while I don't put much weight into it pointed out that all of the NDPs drop comes from ridings in Ontario where they don't have a chance. So lets hope that is true.

Harry · April 13, 2011

Don't hold your breath....

Ever hear of the HST? :rolleyes:

Edited April 13, 2011 by Harry

M.Dancer · April 13, 2011

Ever hear of the HST?

Is that the tax that the NDP are for or the tax that the NDp are against?

punked · April 13, 2011

Is that the tax that the NDP are for or the tax that the NDp are against?

It is the one they are against, along with the tax rates on small business and large corporate taxes on those who create and keep jobs in the country. The one they are for is the tax on corporation that move jobs outside the country. Did you watch the debates?

Harry · April 13, 2011

Let's just say Gordon Campbell is no longer Premier because of the HST tax that he and his buddy Stephen Harper foisted onto the backs of BCers.

ToadBrother · April 13, 2011

Let's just say Gordon Campbell is no longer Premier because of the HST tax that he and his buddy Stephen Harper foisted onto the backs of BCers.

You do understand, I hope, that the HST was actually developed by the Chretien government.

Edited April 13, 2011 by ToadBrother

Smallc · April 13, 2011

You do understand, I hope, that the HST was actually developed by the Chretien government.

And that Chretien wanted every province to adopt it as a better alternative to the GST/PST/QST.

ToadBrother · April 14, 2011

And that Chretien wanted every province to adopt it as a better alternative to the GST/PST/QST.

Yup. This has been a longstanding goal of tax officials with the Feds since the 1990s.

Bryan · April 14, 2011

Ever hear of the HST?

Leave it to the NDP to confuse provincial matters with federal ones. Or to get their parties mixed up.

Edited April 14, 2011 by Bryan

ToadBrother · April 14, 2011

Leave it to the NDP to confuse provincial matters with federal ones. Or to get their parties mixed up.

Since it's the unifying of the sales tax structure of the Federal and Provincial governments, it's hardly just a provincial matter.

M.Dancer · April 14, 2011

It is the one they are against, along with the tax rates on small business and large corporate taxes on those who create and keep jobs in the country. The one they are for is the tax on corporation that move jobs outside the country. Did you watch the debates?

Yeah,,,but like the babbling of creationists discussing science, I discount everything Layton says about business....he knows zip about it. But he sure does know how to sell and how to pander to those who know nothing about business....

punked · April 14, 2011

Yeah,,,but like the babbling of creationists discussing science, I discount everything Layton says about business....he knows zip about it. But he sure does know how to sell and how to pander to those who know nothing about business....

He knows that if you give someone a tax cut for creating jobs there shouldn't be a problem attaching to that cut the stipulation of "You get if you create jobs". What is the problem everyone says these tax cuts create jobs why is that a problem?

M.Dancer · April 14, 2011

He knows that if you give someone a tax cut for creating jobs there shouldn't be a problem attaching to that cut the stipulation of "You get if you create jobs". What is the problem everyone says these tax cuts create jobs why is that a problem?

I guess what he doesn't know is that jobs are created for the sake of job cuts...they are created for the sake of business..nurture business and then jobs will be created.

punked · April 14, 2011

I guess what he doesn't know is that jobs are created for the sake of job cuts...they are created for the sake of business..nurture business and then jobs will be created.

Gotcha tax cuts don't create jobs, so attaching this as part of the tax cuts would make business mad.

TimG · April 14, 2011

Gotcha tax cuts don't create jobs, so attaching this as part of the tax cuts would make business mad.

No it means the jobs are created in the economy - not necessarily by the company in question. For example, a company that lowers it prices because of the tax cuts would allow its customers to expand because they now have lower input costs. Attempting to attribute jobs to a specific company would create bad incentives and probably cause more harm than good.

M.Dancer · April 14, 2011

Gotcha tax cuts don't create jobs, so attaching this as part of the tax cuts would make business mad.

What ever....a tax cut as an incentive to create jobs simply won't work./...jobs are not created for the sake of tax cuts.

This is not a complicated topic...well, for socialists it is who feel like Jack, all worthy jobs are government paid for.

Edited April 14, 2011 by M.Dancer

punked · April 14, 2011

What ever....a tax cut as an incentive to create jobs simply won't work./...jobs are not created for the sake of tax cuts.

This is not a complicated topic...well, for socialists it is who feel like Jack, all worthy jobs are government paid for.

I know tax cuts don't create jobs. I was pointing if they do you wouldn't be against the NDPs proposal of "If you want a tax cut to create jobs then you must create jobs to get it".

cybercoma · April 14, 2011

That compas poll is interesting, but all these polls are inherently misleading.

1) Popular support does not necessarily translate to seats. We don't vote by proportional representation.

2) More than 1 out of every 3 people polled were undecided. Those that support the Conservatives do so unwaveringly, as was noted in the poll. This works in their favour for decided voters. Moreover, the party in power tends to create more decided voters in its favour for these polls as well.

They were calling for a majority last time, but it didn't pan out in the votes. I suspect the same thing will happen again here. Part of the reason is the concentration of votes in Alberta. Much of the popular supported is eaten up by the concentration of votes.