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Posted

In that election, the polls had the parties neck and neck. On average, we have about 7% separating the parties here. and all of the major polls agree on the leader. It isn't that election. The Liberals are going to win and possibly run away with this in a way that the polls aren't reporting. No one ever shows up like that to see a politician. They have for Trudeau. He has changed a lot of minds. People find him to be a better leader than Harper. That was really the one thing that Harper had.

The caution here, at least from Eric Grenier at 308, is that there is some overlap between the Liberals and the Tories in the mid-30s range, so while the probabilities are strongest of a Liberal win in the 140 seat range, there is still a not numerically insignificant chance of a much closer result, or even a Tory minority in the 15 seat range.

So, to my mind, while I still would lay my money on a Liberal minority, it should be a nailbiter.

Posted

The caution here, at least from Eric Grenier at 308, is that there is some overlap between the Liberals and the Tories in the mid-30s range, so while the probabilities are strongest of a Liberal win in the 140 seat range, there is still a not numerically insignificant chance of a much closer result, or even a Tory minority in the 15 seat range.

So, to my mind, while I still would lay my money on a Liberal minority, it should be a nailbiter.

I'm on my phone. How the heck could the conservatives even win a minority? I'm trying to grasp your logic as I haven't read Eric's post.

My views are my own and not those of my employer.

Posted

I'm on my phone. How the heck could the conservatives even win a minority? I'm trying to grasp your logic as I haven't read Eric's post.

The 'shy tory' effect - people are reluctant to admit to pollsters they support conservatives

The efficiency of the Conservative vote

The fact that a lot of young people (Trudeau's base) don't vote

Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists.

- Noam Chomsky

It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.

- Upton Sinclair

Posted

The fact that a lot of young people (Trudeau's base) don't vote

Trudeau was ahead in the 55-64 age group at the end - and this year, young people are voting. Turnout is, apparently, huge.

Posted

In that election, the polls had the parties neck and neck. On average, we have about 7% separating the parties here. and all of the major polls agree on the leader. It isn't that election. The Liberals are going to win and possibly run away with this in a way that the polls aren't reporting. No one ever shows up like that to see a politician. They have for Trudeau. He has changed a lot of minds. People find him to be a better leader than Harper. That was really the one thing that Harper had.

The only way I can see a Liberal majority is if the youth vote comes out big time.

Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists.

- Noam Chomsky

It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.

- Upton Sinclair

Posted

The only way I can see a Liberal majority is if the youth vote comes out big time.

I can't prove it yet, but it seems that they are. People that never vote that I know...people that don't even pay attention - they're voting today.

Posted

Trudeau was ahead in the 55-64 age group at the end - and this year, young people are voting. Turnout is, apparently, huge.

Don't forget the shy tory thing.

Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists.

- Noam Chomsky

It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.

- Upton Sinclair

Posted (edited)

Don't forget the shy tory thing.

Most polls had the difference between the parties at 7 - 10%...that's a lot of shy tories.

I would generally be a shy tory. I voted Liberal.

Edited by Smallc
Posted

I'm on my phone. How the heck could the conservatives even win a minority? I'm trying to grasp your logic as I haven't read Eric's post.

The logic essentially is that at the high end, the Tory potential vote overlaps the Liberals' median range. This means that if the Tories perform a bit better than expected, and the Liberals underperform, there is a chance that the Tories could close the gap, or even surpass the Liberals by a few seats.

Posted

Trudeau was ahead in the 55-64 age group at the end - and this year, young people are voting. Turnout is, apparently, huge.

I went to my polling station at about 7:40am (I'm in BC). It wasn't super busy, but there was a steady stream of people, whereas I went to vote in 2011 just a half an hour after the polls opened then, and I was the only voter there. So, based on my anecdotal evidence from a voting location in a very rural part of my riding, I'd say voter attendance was up about 300%.

Posted

I went to my polling station at about 7:40am (I'm in BC). It wasn't super busy, but there was a steady stream of people, whereas I went to vote in 2011 just a half an hour after the polls opened then, and I was the only voter there. So, based on my anecdotal evidence from a voting location in a very rural part of my riding, I'd say voter attendance was up about 300%.

Soooo..... up 300% implies 4x.

If turnout was 60%(or so) in 2011, it will be 240% this time? :P Someone might think the polls are rigged.

Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists.

- Noam Chomsky

It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.

- Upton Sinclair

Posted

No doubt that some people won't vote because they want to watch the Blue Jays. I wonder which party would be hurt most by that.

Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists.

- Noam Chomsky

It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.

- Upton Sinclair

Posted

I faced a significant line while voting in the advance polling station in my area. That was great to see as increased turnout doesn't favour Stephen Harper.

Posted

I voted in the advance polls and was a little disappointed. It was held in an arena and that voters were required to go up about 20 steps. There was a small elevator and there were plenty of volunteers available to help folks through the elevators although an elderly lady got stuck in the elevator on her scooter. Most of the folks looked like they were in the 50 to 100 yr old range, some with caregivers. In the past, the local Legion had been used and I understand that they got about $400 for the rental.

I do understand that it may be difficult to find a venue but when we elect governments that toss $billions around you would think that some good money would go into the process of electing them. I know that religious institutions are out (some people will not enter a church or tabernacle) but something central in the riding, and easily accessible has to be available.

Maybe we are getting the message that if you can't make it up 20 steps then you probably will not be around for the life of this government and your vote is not important. :)

Note - For those expecting a response from Big Guy: I generally do not read or respond to posts longer then 300 words nor to parsed comments.

Posted

I voted in the advance polls and was a little disappointed. It was held in an arena and that voters were required to go up about 20 steps. There was a small elevator and there were plenty of volunteers available to help folks through the elevators although an elderly lady got stuck in the elevator on her scooter. Most of the folks looked like they were in the 50 to 100 yr old range, some with caregivers. In the past, the local Legion had been used and I understand that they got about $400 for the rental.

I do understand that it may be difficult to find a venue but when we elect governments that toss $billions around you would think that some good money would go into the process of electing them. I know that religious institutions are out (some people will not enter a church or tabernacle) but something central in the riding, and easily accessible has to be available.

Maybe we are getting the message that if you can't make it up 20 steps then you probably will not be around for the life of this government and your vote is not important. :)

Elections Canada picks the facilities based upon capacity. Is it possible that this was the only suitable venue in your area? You could also raise it with your MP and the local riding associations of the parties before the next election.

For me, the venue is quite nice, the local community hall for my rural area that has been hosting Federal and Provincial elections since it was built in the 1960s. It's kind of cool, actually, as I voted for the first time ever in the 1991 BC election, and have voted in every Provincial and Federal election since then it that very building. Funny thing is that many of the same elections workers have been there each time I voted, some of them, though in my "neighborhood", which is a very large rural area, I only see on election day. It's always a good experience, and this morning I went with my oldest daughter, who is voting in her second Federal election.

Posted

Elections Canada picks the facilities based upon capacity. Is it possible that this was the only suitable venue in your area? You could also raise it with your MP and the local riding associations of the parties before the next election.

I've heard a number of problems about venue selection this time. I wonder if the Conservatives nickel-and-diming of Elections Canada has forced them to make some decisions which are going to restrict voting.

There have been a couple of cases in BC where polls are suddenly much farther or less convenient than they have been in the past and it's resulting in people having to spend long times and/or travel long distances.

Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists.

- Noam Chomsky

It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.

- Upton Sinclair

Posted

I've heard a number of problems about venue selection this time. I wonder if the Conservatives nickel-and-diming of Elections Canada has forced them to make some decisions which are going to restrict voting.

I don't think so. They pay a flat rate of $100 a day no matter the facility, and always have.

Posted

...I wonder if the Conservatives nickel-and-diming of Elections Canada has forced them to make some decisions which are going to restrict voting.

And if it's raining anywhere today, that's probably the evil plan of the Conservatives too. For christsakes...

"racist, intolerant, small-minded bigot" - AND APPARENTLY A SOCIALIST

(2010) (2015)
Economic Left/Right: 8.38 3.38
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 3.13 -1.23

Posted

I'm on my phone. How the heck could the conservatives even win a minority? I'm trying to grasp your logic as I haven't read Eric's post.

They're competitive in a lot of ridings and many of the flips are going to be pretty close.

Posted

I am all for a small minority for the CPC... it would make the ousting of Harper WAY more interesting when the NDP and LIB have to work together to form a government. Although a small LIB minority is fine too.

I like the idea of a big cantankerous transition of power, It would stir up a lot of crap that badly needs stirred up to ensure the public cannot avoid having it's face rubbed in it.

A government without public oversight is like a nuclear plant without lead shielding.

Posted (edited)

I've heard a number of problems about

---SNIP---

There are reports in aboriginal ridings that Elections Canada showed up with, like, 400 ballots... where several thousand eligible voters showed up.

Edited by Charles Anthony
[---SNIP---]

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