Federal Election Polls

blueblood · October 13, 2015

I found this entertaining:

Robert Fife of CTV is usually a dependable source of 'inside' news. Last night on the national news he reported recriminations and the blame game has already begun in Conservative campaign ranks. Apparently high ranking Tories report many cabinet names have now been written off including Joe Oliver, Chris Alexander and Bernard Valcourt.

He also reported the boss has become particularly depressed in the past few days - snapping at campaign volunteers and beside himself that Trudeau appears ready to seal his fate.

Sounds like harper had "the chat" i was alluding to previously. 10 ish yrs seems to be the going rate. I remember in 2008 dion had that same chat...

ToadBrother · October 13, 2015

Sounds like harper had "the chat" i was alluding to previously. 10 ish yrs seems to be the going rate. I remember in 2008 dion had that same chat...

Perhaps party leaders, like Roman generals, should have someone behind them whispering in their ear "Memento mori".

blueblood · October 13, 2015

Perhaps party leaders, like Roman generals, should have someone behind them whispering in their ear "Memento mori".

Chretien did. He exited stage left and let martin have a go for a few years.

At least harper has a legacy he can leave behind which is eerily similar to pmpms.

waldo · October 13, 2015

At least harper has a legacy he can leave behind which is eerily similar to pmpms.

nothing time and concentrated effort can't reverse!

ToadBrother · October 13, 2015

Chretien did. He exited stage left and let martin have a go for a few years.

At least harper has a legacy he can leave behind which is eerily similar to pmpms.

And maybe that's the problem. Political leaders get these obsessions about legacies which blind them to the fact that such legacies rarely do their parties much good, at least in the short term.

It was foolish of Harper to think he could walk into a fourth term, and even more foolish of the Tories to allow him to do it. While it still might have been impossible to repeat 2011, one wonders if the Tories, under a different leader, could have pulled off a similar victory to what the BC Liberals, Ontario Liberals and even the PCs in Alberta did (not that it did them any good).

ReeferMadness · October 13, 2015

And maybe that's the problem. Political leaders get these obsessions about legacies which blind them to the fact that such legacies rarely do their parties much good, at least in the short term.

It was foolish of Harper to think he could walk into a fourth term, and even more foolish of the Tories to allow him to do it. While it still might have been impossible to repeat 2011, one wonders if the Tories, under a different leader, could have pulled off a similar victory to what the BC Liberals, Ontario Liberals and even the PCs in Alberta did (not that it did them any good).

I don't know. They've been saying "The Harper Government" for the past 10 years. The entire party brand is synonymous with dear leader.

Hydraboss · October 13, 2015

Sooo....what the hell is up with the divergence between 308 and The Signal? Pretty sizable differences between their aggregations when it comes to the Libs and Cons

Signal 34.2L / 33.2C

308 35.1L / 31.0C

I would think the aggregates would be more accurate than any individual polls, but should they be that different? We're talking 1% and 4.1%. Doesn't sound right.

ReeferMadness · October 13, 2015

I usually go with CBC Polltracker which is an aggregator of polls.

Liberals - 35.1

Conservatives - 31

NDP - 23.3

The seat count projections rely on a lot of math and it will be interesting to see how close he is. It says the Green can't get more than one but I know they have a legitimate shot in Victoria as well.

ToadBrother · October 13, 2015

Sooo....what the hell is up with the divergence between 308 and The Signal? Pretty sizable differences between their aggregations when it comes to the Libs and Cons

Signal 34.2L / 33.2C

308 35.1L / 31.0C

I would think the aggregates would be more accurate than any individual polls, but should they be that different? We're talking 1% and 4.1%. Doesn't sound right.

It depends on the riding prediction model their using. The important thing to look at in the Signal is the maximum seat counts, which are improbable of course, but show which of the parties has the most potential for movement, and the greatest likelihood as to whether that is growth or loss.

The other factor that is in play as far as seat estimates is vote efficiency. As the NDP fades, the Liberals gain efficiency, to the point where both the Signal and 308 are showing the Tories and Liberals pretty much having the same efficiency. Most models of a mid to high 30s Tory victory early on were based upon the idea that even if the NDP or Liberals (early on it was the NDP) out performed the Tories in the popular vote, the Tories could rely upon the vote splits between the two parties to deliver them victory in tight races. Now that Liberal vote efficiency is near or equal to Tory efficiency, suddenly the Tories no longer get more bang for the buck.

blueblood · October 13, 2015

And maybe that's the problem. Political leaders get these obsessions about legacies which blind them to the fact that such legacies rarely do their parties much good, at least in the short term.

It was foolish of Harper to think he could walk into a fourth term, and even more foolish of the Tories to allow him to do it. While it still might have been impossible to repeat 2011, one wonders if the Tories, under a different leader, could have pulled off a similar victory to what the BC Liberals, Ontario Liberals and even the PCs in Alberta did (not that it did them any good).

Except harpers legacy isnt all that controversial: trade agreements signed, good handling of economic crisis, and a balanced budget. Its not PET, laurier, john a macdonald level of legacy, but harper has his stamp.

The tories would need a leader who is very likeable and well known. People have spent a long time getting to know justin Trudeau. He has been in parliament since 08 and was making a name for himself since then. Like i said the only centre right person with the charisma and likeability and results to compete with trudeau is brad wall and i don't see him leaving sk anytime soon.

Hydraboss · October 13, 2015

I usually go with CBC Polltracker which is an aggregator of polls.

308 and Polltracker are the same thing.

ToadBrother · October 13, 2015

Except harpers legacy isnt all that controversial: trade agreements signed, good handling of economic crisis, and a balanced budget. Its not PET, laurier, john a macdonald level of legacy, but harper has his stamp.

I don't want to get into a debate on legacy, but I don't see his accomplishments as that overwhelming (we still don't have a signed trade deal with the EU), and the balanced budget is so tight that it's way too early to even call it a significant accomplishment. And while you may not agree, I think many would agree that his legacy has its negative points as well (although, the men you list above certainly had blemished legacies).

Myself, I don't think Harper has been the worst, by any measure, but his autocratic style of governing and managing his party have clearly created a very negative view of him inside and outside the party. I understand why he centralized as he did, I doubt the coalition between Reform and the PCs would have lasted more than a few years in the hands of a less forceful leader, but I wonder if he should have loosened up, trusted what he had built, rather than essentially spending his whole eleven years as leader holding the party together in a clenched fist.

The tories would need a leader who is very likeable and well known. People have spent a long time getting to know justin Trudeau. He has been in parliament since 08 and was making a name for himself since then. Like i said the only centre right person with the charisma and likeability and results to compete with trudeau is brad wall and i don't see him leaving sk anytime soon.

As others have pointed out, Wall's inability to speak French would be a big hindrance. While Harper's French is, so I'm told, not super fantastic, it was probably among the things that gave him credibility.

It could very well be that the Tories will, like the Liberals, have to go through a period in Opposition under a number of leaders. Look at the UK Tories, they spent thirteen years under, as I count it, three leaders before they managed to break back into power. I hope it isn't that long, and particularly if the next government is some sort of Liberal minority propped up by the NDP, the next leader may have darned little time to get his or her ducks in a row before another election.

I think there's some good material there, though we'll have to see who makes it through the next election. I understand that some ministers' chances of re-election are looking pretty dim, and the number of solid ministers who didn't run is going to make it tough.

ReeferMadness · October 13, 2015

Brad Wall as the great white hope?

There's a big difference between governing Saskatchewan and governing Canada - even if he could speak French.

Smallc · October 13, 2015

As others have pointed out, Wall's inability to speak French would be a big hindrance. While Harper's French is, so I'm told, not super fantastic, it was probably among the things that gave him credibility.

I've seen him speak French, though I can't comment on the quality.

Smallc · October 13, 2015

There's a big difference between governing Saskatchewan and governing Canada - even if he could speak French.

Uhhh...so?

ReeferMadness · October 14, 2015

Uhhh...so?

So I don't think Conservatives (or conservatives) should count on him taking the country by storm.

Hydraboss · October 14, 2015

There's a big difference between governing Saskatchewan and governing Canada - even if he could speak French.

See, this is where I get confused. A current government leader, in your opinion, isn't qualified to run Canada (and I'm not saying if I agree or not), but someone who taught drama is?? I don't get it. How can anyone be so divided in their beliefs? Wall - no. Trudeau - yes. Weird.

cybercoma · October 14, 2015

the waldo remains cautiously optimistic... and is still not yet prepared to issue a MLW member Boges like 'Boomface'!

I still think the Conservatives are winning the seat race. I'll re-predict after the final polls Friday.

blueblood · October 14, 2015

Brad Wall as the great white hope?

There's a big difference between governing Saskatchewan and governing Canada - even if he could speak French.

He has one of the highest approval ratings in the country, delivers consistent balanced budgets, and sk has very low unemployment. He has to manage a caucus just like a pm and have opposition just like a pm. Also hes squeaky clean.

cybercoma · October 14, 2015

Even if you throw in a larger error margin, it's hard to look at a lot of these riding level results and not see that the Tories may not be on the brink of a serious loss of support. Heck, the Liberals look like they may take a number of urban ridings in Alberta.

Last time I went through riding-level projections and polls, it looked like the LIberals were taking about 4 seats in Alberta....believe it or not.

cybercoma · October 14, 2015

Sooo....what the hell is up with the divergence between 308 and The Signal? Pretty sizable differences between their aggregations when it comes to the Libs and Cons

Signal 34.2L / 33.2C

308 35.1L / 31.0C

I would think the aggregates would be more accurate than any individual polls, but should they be that different? We're talking 1% and 4.1%. Doesn't sound right.

Those aren't sizeable differences. Those results are within the margin of error of each other.

blueblood · October 14, 2015

I still think the Conservatives are winning the seat race. I'll re-predict after the final polls Friday.

Im on team blue, but the tea leaves say change is afoot. Harpers campaign is eerily like the dion campaign - over 2 weeks before the election.

Hydraboss · October 14, 2015

Those aren't sizeable differences. Those results are within the margin of error of each other.

Maybe you can clarify something for me - how are they calculating their MOE on aggregates? Are they weighting the polls and then weighting the MOE of those individual polls?

Smallc · October 14, 2015

Maybe you can clarify something for me - how are they calculating their MOE on aggregates? Are they weighting the polls and then weighting the MOE of those individual polls?

You can see the 308 weighting on the http://www.cbc.ca/polltracker website. I don't look at the signal, but I'd assume it weights differently.

Edited October 14, 2015 by Smallc

cybercoma · October 14, 2015

Maybe you can clarify something for me - how are they calculating their MOE on aggregates? Are they weighting the polls and then weighting the MOE of those individual polls?

The MoE is for the total sample size which is over a 3-day period. The results that are being reported are the same as all the other pollsters who gather 1200 respondents over 3 days. The difference being here is that those three days roll over every day by dropping 400 respondents and adding 400 more. Regardless, the results are essentially the same: 1200 respondents over 3 days. A 1200 respondent poll has roughly +/- 2.8% MoE