Federal Election Polls

cybercoma · July 9, 2015

People aren't paying attention yet.

In case you haven't been paying attention, the polls suggest otherwise. People are always paying attention and whenever any of the parties says or does something the polls move.

Smallc · July 9, 2015

In case you haven't been paying attention, the polls suggest otherwise. People are always paying attention and whenever any of the parties says or does something the polls move.

No, they don't in fact suggest anything at this point. The polls, at the moment, are driven by disinterest.

Derek 2.0 · July 9, 2015

The polls, at the moment, are driven by disinterest.

To that point, a good piece in today's National Post, explaining why it is that Harper and the CPC are not the slightest bit worried, despite polls and commentary suggesting they should be...........speaking to your point, the poll that suggests that ~75% of Canadians have never heard of TPP......A trade deal representing nearly 50% of the World's GDP, a economic linchpin for the 21st century, that will be finalized in the weeks ahead, a deal that the NDP and Liberals will oppose........much like they did with Mulroney and NAFTA......

cybercoma · July 9, 2015

To that point, a good piece in today's National Post, explaining why it is that Harper and the CPC are not the slightest bit worried, despite polls and commentary suggesting they should be...........speaking to your point, the poll that suggests that ~75% of Canadians have never heard of TPP......A trade deal representing nearly 50% of the World's GDP, a economic linchpin for the 21st century, that will be finalized in the weeks ahead, a deal that the NDP and Liberals will oppose........much like they did with Mulroney and NAFTA......

Kelly McParland is only surpassed as the most awful editorialist in Canada by Margaret Wente. Harper and the CPC aren't worried because they're more arrogant than Chrétien ever was. The TPP is awful for a number of reasons that can be discussed in a thread about the TPP, but that has nothing to do with why people are turning away from the CPC. Harper's in trouble. He's got a lot of work to turn this thing around. Momentum is building away from him and he needs to turn it back towards him. The bigger problem than the numbers that are typically reported in these polls (relative party support) is that the CPC has no room to grow, as they're no longer the second choice of many Liberals. Further still, Harper's approval rating is the lowest it has ever been. He has always been the strongest leader, but that's not the case anymore. And getting back to the relative party support numbers, his team will be decimated before there's even an election. Almost every other time in history where this many incumbents left before an election that party lost. Incumbency makes a candidate more electable and Harper is losing a ton of them. As a dyed in blue Conservative who couldn't even fathom voting for another party under any circumstances, you should be worried and if you're not, then you're just not paying attention.

Vancouver King · July 9, 2015

In addition to those electoral woes, national events continue to conspire against Harper. Over the past few days reports have exports down $3.3 billion, national building permits in May down 15% ($6.6 billion), major banks proclaiming the "r" word, which will likely be confirmed a month before voting day. If there is any truth to the axiom that people vote with their wallets, Harper is in deep trouble.

My growing fear is this: Faced with an impossible uphill campaign the Conservatives might "manufacture" a national security situation to capitalize on their only strong suit and stampede voters back into their tent. Does anyone doubt Conservative logic that such an incident would be in the service of the greater good?

eyeball · July 9, 2015

I wouldn't put it past Harper to try and capitalize from a galvanizing event but not actually engineer one. That's just paranoid.

Vancouver King · July 9, 2015

I wouldn't put it past Harper to try and capitalize from a galvanizing event but not actually engineer one. That's just paranoid.

You have far too much faith in Harper's willingness to play by the rules.

poochy · July 9, 2015

In addition to those electoral woes, national events continue to conspire against Harper. Over the past few days reports have exports down $3.3 billion, national building permits in May down 15% ($6.6 billion), major banks proclaiming the "r" word, which will likely be confirmed a month before voting day. If there is any truth to the axiom that people vote with their wallets, Harper is in deep trouble.

My growing fear is this: Faced with an impossible uphill campaign the Conservatives might "manufacture" a national security situation to capitalize on their only strong suit and stampede voters back into their tent. Does anyone doubt Conservative logic that such an incident would be in the service of the greater good?

Your posts read like pre packaged propaganda, tell us more about this alleged possible future conspiracy to keep the conservatives in power, while you're at it, are the troops still in the streets?

On Guard for Thee · July 9, 2015

By the look of the numbers,(polls as well as economics) it would take a 9-11 to get anybody stampeding into Harpers tent theses days.

And that would only show that C 51 is a failure.

Edited July 9, 2015 by On Guard for Thee

Smallc · July 9, 2015

Nostradamus is upon us.

Vancouver King · July 9, 2015

By the look of the numbers,(polls as well as economics) it would take a 9-11 to get anybody stampeding into Harpers tent theses days.

And that would only show that C 51 is a failure.

Today's bad news installment for Conservatives: The IMF again slashes Canada's economic outlook, this time to 1.5%. The country's economy struggles to keep up with inflation.

cybercoma · July 9, 2015

Haven't you heard? Harper's only responsible when good things happen, but all the bad things that happen are someone else's fault.

Derek 2.0 · July 10, 2015

As a dyed in blue Conservative who couldn't even fathom voting for another party under any circumstances, you should be worried and if you're not, then you're just not paying attention.

I'm not the slightest bit worried, and once the actual campaign starts, like has happened in the last several elections, the Tories will climb again very slowly, so slowly that some in the MSM might even suggest the NDP or Liberals (Which ever one is leading at that point) won't form Government, as the Tories will then look like they will form a modest minority.......and then, on October 20th, we'll have another Tory Majority (in the 170-180 seat range).....

Don't mistake my/Harper's/the CPC's confidence as arrogance though, in every election since 2004 the party has gained seats despite polling stating the opposite months prior to the vote........I, like the majority of party members are paying attention, yet no one is worried......I would have been a tad worried if Trudeau was polling in the high 30s, or the Tories released their platform last month and peaked too early in the mid 30s........

To be frank, as a NDP supporter, you should be worried, as despite the current front-runner status, your party has been handled with kid gloves by not only the Tories, but the Liberals, Bloc, Greens, and perhaps the most important of all, the mainstream media.........The Tory strategy of defeating media darling Trudeau with his own ignorant remarks has worked, the follow on strategy to defeat the socialist NDP has yet to begin.....

Remember, since becoming the leader of the Canadian Alliance (and then the CPC), Harper has wanted to bury the Liberal Party of Canada, sending it off into the history books alongside the Progressive Conservatives and Social Credit..........leaving Canadians with two viable choices to form government, a center-right party and a center-left party..........The current NDP is leftist party...

The strategy to defeat the NDP is quite simple when compared to Trudeau........we will defeat you this Fall by using your Fabian Socialist ideals against you...........We don't have to defend policies that amount to higher taxes, deficit spending and protectionist polices that amount to higher prices of consumer goods........I will enjoy greatly watching Mulcair explain these expensive policies to Canadians.........

Evening Star · July 10, 2015

I think I'd actually appreciate seeing an election campaign fought over ideological principles.

Derek 2.0 · July 10, 2015

I think I'd actually appreciate seeing an election campaign fought over ideological principles.

As would I (and Harper), but the true leftist policies of the NDP and Liberals have been publicly diminished as a reactionary measure to the true Canadian political calculus.........The NDP can't campaign too loudly on massive deficit spending or higher taxes to achieve their political Utopia, riddled with countless social programs, of a just and progressive society because Canadians don't want higher taxes (for themselves anyways) nor the country to go broke........Canadians, by and large, are socially "progressive" but fiscally conservative..........

The Canadians (in 20-30 ridings) that will decide this election will be faced with a stark choice, paying more to Government for the benefit of others......or not.

So far, the NDP promises, based on their own policy paper, measures in the tens of billions of dollars in the red......Free Daycare, embracing First Nations reconciliation, more funding for cities and transit, countless social justice programs aimed at societies most vulnerable etc will all cost a whole whack of money our Government doesn't have (Your starved beast).......hence the NDP will need to tap a source of other people's money......money belonging to voters that would much rather keep it......

On Guard for Thee · July 10, 2015

As would I (and Harper), but the true leftist policies of the NDP and Liberals have been publicly diminished as a reactionary measure to the true Canadian political calculus.........The NDP can't campaign too loudly on massive deficit spending or higher taxes to achieve their political Utopia, riddled with countless social programs, of a just and progressive society because Canadians don't want higher taxes (for themselves anyways) nor the country to go broke........Canadians, by and large, are socially "progressive" but fiscally conservative..........

The Canadians (in 20-30 ridings) that will decide this election will be faced with a stark choice, paying more to Government for the benefit of others......or not.

So far, the NDP promises, based on their own policy paper, measures in the tens of billions of dollars in the red......Free Daycare, embracing First Nations reconciliation, more funding for cities and transit, countless social justice programs aimed at societies most vulnerable etc will all cost a whole whack of money our Government doesn't have (Your starved beast).......hence the NDP will need to tap a source of other people's money......money belonging to voters that would much rather keep it......

Naw, now youre just making things up. Mulcair has his programs fully costed, and he never said anything about free daycare. And most economists agree that infrastructure spending helps to offset difficult economic times, which we have now since Harper has led us into a recession. Got to get soe of those eggs out of the basket, and of course not piss it away on F 35s.

PrimeNumber · July 10, 2015

As would I (and Harper),

This. This is the most ridiculous thing I've ever seen you post on this forum.

Haprer cares not for ideology. He'd rather attack people, not ideas.

Derek 2.0 · July 10, 2015

Haprer cares not for ideology. He'd rather attack people, not ideas.

You don't think Prime Minister Harper is an ideologue, a strict adherent to his political views? Let me guess, your also think Dustin Hoffman was in Star Wars?

Harper's politics are ever so much a blend of his own ideology mixed with political pragmatism............

On Guard for Thee · July 10, 2015

Harper's politics are one track: whatever it takes to keep me in power. It gives the SC lots to do though.

PrimeNumber · July 10, 2015

You don't think Prime Minister Harper is an ideologue, a strict adherent to his political views? Let me guess, your also think Dustin Hoffman was in Star Wars?

Harper's politics are ever so much a blend of his own ideology mixed with political pragmatism...........

This isn't seinfeld. Harper has never made this election about ideology. He makes it about personal attacks. If he even just once used an add to attack a parties policies rather than the parties leader he may get somewhere. Thankfully Canadians are smarter than he gives them credit for and they see right through his half-hearted attempts and political spin.

Vancouver King · July 10, 2015

This isn't seinfeld. Harper has never made this election about ideology. He makes it about personal attacks. If he even just once used an add to attack a parties policies rather than the parties leader he may get somewhere. Thankfully Canadians are smarter than he gives them credit for and they see right through his half-hearted attempts and political spin.

Apparently panic has broken out in Tory Assassination Central as the "Justin, he's just not ready" attack ads are just not working - Conservatives have lost 2 points since their launch. What worked on Ignatieff has so far failed on Trudeau.

cybercoma · July 10, 2015

Apparently panic has broken out in Tory Assassination Central as the "Justin, he's just not ready" attack ads are just not working - Conservatives have lost 2 points since their launch. What worked on Ignatieff has so far failed on Trudeau.

The child of who many consider Canada's greatest Prime Minister, who grew up around politics and politicians all of his life, is just not ready. Trudeau ain't getting my vote, but the "just not ready" attack is really stupid. If Trudeau isn't ready, nobody is.

Evening Star · July 10, 2015

Tbf, I'm not much of a scientist, despite my Dad's accomplishments in the area.

Bryan · July 10, 2015

What worked on Ignatieff has so far failed on Trudeau.

Trudeau was #1, now he's #3. They work.

They'll work when they get turned on Mulcair too.

PrimeNumber · July 10, 2015

Trudeau was #1, now he's #3. They work.

They'll work when they get turned on Mulcair too.

Again, the attack ads are not why Trudeau slipped in the polls. His direct support of bill c-51 is why he slipped in the polls. The attack ads really haven't accomplished amything but annoy people.