Federal Election Polls

[Vancouver King]

B.C. only Liberal ads are in heavy rotation here. Today I watched the same ad 5 times during the Blue Jays game. Liberals smell Tory/NDP blood on the West Coast and Nanos says it's working - Libs + 6.6 points in BC is the best news I've heard this week.

[angrypenguin]

Agreed. If BC stays the way it is or continues to move in the direction of the Liberals, this is HUGE for Trudeau, as it has been discussed multiple times before that BC could very well be the province that ultimately decides who wins the election. Being a bigger competitor there is of utmost importance to all 3 parties.

Versus Ontario?

[Vancouver King]

Versus Ontario?

Liberals and Conservatives are still roughly tied in Ontario - poll tracker has each in the 50-60 seat range. The real surprise will be how BC's 42 seats break out assuming both parties are in the 120 range leaving Alberta.

Edited October 1, 2015 by Vancouver King

[ToadBrother]

Liberals and Conservatives are still roughly tied in Ontario - poll tracker has each in the 50-60 seat range. The real surprise will be how BC's 42 seats break out assuming both parties are in the 100 range leaving Alberta.

Exactly. If the essential tie in Ontario persists, then seats elsewhere count. For the Tories, the calculus is pretty simple. They're maxed out in the Prairies (and may even lose a few seats). They're likely to be shut out in large parts of ONtario. They have few prospects in Quebec. At the end of the day, that leaves BC as the only place where they can hope to pick up a lot of seats. If the Liberals continue to show strength in BC, it means that the Tories hope of a majority, or at least a very large minority, fade.

[angrypenguin]

Exactly. If the essential tie in Ontario persists, then seats elsewhere count. For the Tories, the calculus is pretty simple. They're maxed out in the Prairies (and may even lose a few seats). They're likely to be shut out in large parts of ONtario. They have few prospects in Quebec. At the end of the day, that leaves BC as the only place where they can hope to pick up a lot of seats. If the Liberals continue to show strength in BC, it means that the Tories hope of a majority, or at least a very large minority, fade.

I think you're underestimating Quebec. If you track the Nanos poll, the NDP are sinking quick and the Cons are on their way up.

[Kageshima]

I think you're underestimating Quebec. If you track the Nanos poll, the NDP are sinking quick and the Cons are on their way up.

The latest Nanos had them at 4th, behind the bloc. Quebec won't be a difference maker for the cons.

[angrypenguin]

The latest Nanos had them at 4th, behind the bloc. Quebec won't be a difference maker for the cons.

Please get your facts right.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20150929%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf

No, the Conservatives are 3rd.

Edited October 1, 2015 by Michael Hardner
misspelling of Conservatives

[ScottM]

Agreed. If BC stays the way it is or continues to move in the direction of the Liberals, this is HUGE for Trudeau, as it has been discussed multiple times before that BC could very well be the province that ultimately decides who wins the election. Being a bigger competitor there is of utmost importance to all 3 parties.

As tightly as the three parties are grouped in BC, it seems to me that a slight move toward any one of them in that province could easily tip the election. Just a couple of points might be enough to swing a several seats.

It also occurs to me that the current NDP decline in the polls could quickly become even more devastating for the party than it already is. It looked for a while like BC and Quebec might be the coalition that carried them into government, and those may be the two provinces where they're currently suffering the most. I can't help but think that the current decline they're experiencing in Quebec won't have to go much further before they start hemorrhaging seats there as well.

[Derek 2.0]

Exactly. If the essential tie in Ontario persists, then seats elsewhere count. For the Tories, the calculus is pretty simple. They're maxed out in the Prairies (and may even lose a few seats). They're likely to be shut out in large parts of ONtario. They have few prospects in Quebec. At the end of the day, that leaves BC as the only place where they can hope to pick up a lot of seats. If the Liberals continue to show strength in BC, it means that the Tories hope of a majority, or at least a very large minority, fade.

Right now, the majority of seats here in BC are polling the NDP and Tories neck and neck, with the Liberals a distant third (outside of several metro Vancouver ridings), if the NDP in BC start loosing numbers to the Liberals (or even Greens), the Tories win in most cases (absent a complete NDP collapse).

[Vancouver King]

Please get your facts right.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20150929%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf

No, the Cons are 3rd.

Barely a point ahead of the Bloq, 15 points back of a diminished NDP and 5 back of their rivals - the Liberals. Quebec is hardly fertile ground for Cons.

Best you worry about sizeable losses in Ontario and BC as measured by Nanos in the same poll. Better still, say a prayer that the huge 6.6 point increase for Liberals in BC results from being an anomaly due to a small regional sample size and not a true reflection of Liberals surging on the West Coast.

[Derek 2.0]

Beginning to look a more normal election. All we need is for the NDP to drop another three or four points, and either the Liberals or Tories to rob a few points from the other, and why, it will look like just about every election between 1968 and 1988.

The same 1988 election in which the Tories went into it with a number of faux scandals, leading up to the campaign, with some polls showing that Ed Broadbent’s NDP were going to form Government, then with several weeks left, John Turner’s Liberals (with an expected surge in British Columbia) were going to win, but ultimately Mulroney returned with a smaller majority, with the promise of cheaper consumer goods afforded by NAFTA?

Funny enough, despite the Red surge in British Columbia, the Liberals only seat in the Province was John Turner’s seat in Vancouver……….history to repeat?

[ToadBrother]

The same 1988 election in which the Tories went into it with a number of faux scandals, leading up to the campaign, with some polls showing that Ed Broadbent’s NDP were going to form Government, then with several weeks left, John Turner’s Liberals (with an expected surge in British Columbia) were going to win, but ultimately Mulroney returned with a smaller majority, with the promise of cheaper consumer goods afforded by NAFTA?

Funny enough, despite the Red surge in British Columbia, the Liberals only seat in the Province was John Turner’s seat in Vancouver……….history to repeat?

Well, we'll see on election day. At the moment, the Liberals are the ones that seem to have an upward trajectory. I doubt anyone is going to get a majority, but a minority for the Tories is likely going to lead to a very short post-election period in power, and the general consensus among constitutional experts at this point is that if the Liberals and NDP can demonstrate they're willingness to work together in some capacity, they'll get their chance.

[Vancouver King]

Right now, the majority of seats here in BC are polling the NDP and Tories neck and neck, with the Liberals a distant third (outside of several metro Vancouver ridings), if the NDP in BC start loosing numbers to the Liberals (or even Greens), the Tories win in most cases (absent a complete NDP collapse).

Nanos has BC in 3 way tie within the margin of error - where do you get the Liberals "a distant third"?

Furthermore, Nanos measured an astonishing 6.6 point increase for BC Liberals week over week. Unless this was some statistical aberration, a Liberal regional BC surge could stand in the way of a Tory majority.

[ToadBrother]

Nanos has BC in 3 way tie within the margin of error - where do you get the Liberals "a distant third"?

Furthermore, Nanos measured an astonishing 6.6 point increase for BC Liberals week over week. Unless this was some statistical aberration, a Liberal regional BC surge could stand in the way of a Tory majority.

By now you must have figured out that where the polls disagree with Derek's preferred result, he'll invoke some previous election which in no way resembles this one as rock solid proof that the Tories cannot be beaten.

[Derek 2.0]

Nanos has BC in 3 way tie within the margin of error - where do you get the Liberals "a distant third"?

Furthermore, Nanos measured an astonishing 6.6 point increase for BC Liberals week over week. Unless this was some statistical aberration, a Liberal regional BC surge could stand in the way of a Tory majority.

Seat-by-seat riding projections and internal party polling.......

[On Guard for Thee]

By now you must have figured out that where the polls disagree with Derek's preferred result, he'll invoke some previous election which in no way resembles this one as rock solid proof that the Tories cannot be beaten.

We have seen various attempts such as you suggest. Remember the Titanic?

[Derek 2.0]

By now you must have figured out that where the polls disagree with Derek's preferred result, he'll invoke some previous election which in no way resembles this one as rock solid proof that the Tories cannot be beaten.

2-3 weeks ago, on this site, I think most (in this thread) were preparing for a Mulcair Government, with the Tories finishing a distant third.......I think (I could be wrong, it could have been someone else) you even mocked me in suggesting the Tories could recover from third place in the polls...

[Vancouver King]

As tightly as the three parties are grouped in BC, it seems to me that a slight move toward any one of them in that province could easily tip the election. Just a couple of points might be enough to swing a several seats.

It also occurs to me that the current NDP decline in the polls could quickly become even more devastating for the party than it already is. It looked for a while like BC and Quebec might be the coalition that carried them into government, and those may be the two provinces where they're currently suffering the most. I can't help but think that the current decline they're experiencing in Quebec won't have to go much further before they start hemorrhaging seats there as well.

At this point 21/2 weeks out, if the bottom falls out of what is left of NDP support in Quebec, as long as the newly in play seats tumble into the Liberal column and not the Tory's, then an NDP disaster will serve a greater purpose - denying Harper another term..

[On Guard for Thee]

At this point 21/2 weeks out, if the bottom falls out of what is left of NDP support in Quebec, as long as the newly in play seats tumble into the Liberal column and not the Tory's, then an NDP disaster will serve a greater purpose - denying Harper another term..

That seems a fairly sensible outcome. If Mulcair drops off, Trudeau will benefit. Could see him as PM.

[ScottM]

Seat-by-seat riding projections and internal party polling.......

The model there is the one Eric Grenier has put together for threehundredeight.com. The default numbers there, the "average" gives the Liberals 112 seats nationally and 10 in BC. If you change it to the Liberal high averages, their national total increases to 128 and 14 in BC. A full fourth of the new seats come from that province. They have room for growth, and this is a party that won only two seats there in 2011. Yes, their vote is the least efficient, but in an election in which every seat counts, those four seats that they'd gain with a little more of an uptick could make a huge difference.

At this point 21/2 weeks out, if the bottom falls out of what is left of NDP support in Quebec, as long as the newly in play seats tumble into the Liberal column and not the Tory's, then an NDP disaster will serve a greater purpose - denying Harper another term..

The thing is though, Quebec almost looks like a crap-shoot in some ways. The Bloc looked primed to be wiped out completely just a few days ago, but they're once again competitive in a few ridings. And who would have thought the Conservatives would have a serious chance to win double-digit seats in the province? As it stands now, they just might do so, and they're moving up in the polls. My guess is that we won't have a real idea about what's going on in Quebec until election night.

[Vancouver King]

Seat-by-seat riding projections and internal party polling.......

Your source has a disclaimer;

"These riding projections are not polls and are not necessarily an accurate reflection of current voter intention in each of these ridings."

So where did your numbers come from - examining the entrails of birds?

[ScottM]

Your source has a disclaimer;

"These riding projections are not polls and are not necessarily an accurate reflection of current voter intention in each of these ridings."

So where did your numbers come from - examining the entrails of birds?

The disclaimer is important there. I like the site that the numbers came from very much, but I agree that it's important to remember that those aren't polling numbers. Those are numbers mathematically generated to make a "best guess" at the outcome. Since Grenier is also operating the CBC poll tracker, I think it's worth pointing out that he has high/low levels for each party that, if I recall correctly, are given a 75% confidence rating, and min/max levels that are, again if I recall correctly, 90% confidence.

The thing is, the model can be no more accurate that the polls that are fed into it, and even then no model is perfect, so that has to be taken into account. No poll or model can ever be taken as 100% accurate, so again, I agree that the numbers can't be given as absolute proof of anything.

Even if it could be, I'd again point out that the model given shows the Liberals have room for possible seat growth, so I still don't think it proves the point of the original poster of the link.

[Exegesisme]

The Estimation of Seats on Poll Numbers, Sept. 30

By Exegesisme

The Estimation of Seats of Each Party on the Poll Numbers of Sept. 30

Con% NDP% Lib% Green% Bloc%

national 32.1 26.3 32.2 4.4 4.6

ON (121) 34 21 40 5

QU (78) 20 34 25 1 19

PR (62) 51 21 24 4

BC (42) 30 32 30 8

AT (32) 19 25 49 6

YNN (3)

Con NDP Lib Green Bloc

ES (338) 108 86 127 5 9

Edited October 1, 2015 by Exegesisme

[Vancouver King]

103 + 80 + 118 + 4 + 9 = 314

What happened to the other 24 seats?

Edited October 1, 2015 by Vancouver King

[Exegesisme]

103 + 80 + 118 + 4 + 9 = 314

What happened to the other 24 seats?

Thanks.

Some regional numbers of seats were not updated.

All the numbers are renewed now.

121+78+62+42+32+3=338

108 + 86+ 127+ 5+ 9= 335​

Edited October 1, 2015 by Exegesisme