Federal Election Polls

[punked]

exactly the movement can outgrow the the party...I lived in sask at the time it was a shocker, the gas station attendant was intended as cannon fodder no one else wanted to run against a giant of Romanow's political stature but the impossible happened...

The good news for Liberals in this story is 7 years later Romanow was sitting in the big chair. Swings happen, movements, and people seize a moment. After whatever party gets that movement fullfils its mandate it must change said mandate or risk becoming stale. This is what Harper is facing right now.

[August1991]

Because Quebec hates the war more then anything and the NDP scream everytime it comes up. The other parties don't they support it. Really Quebec only has one choice as far as Afghanistan goes.

It's not th war in Afghanistan. Canada has had troops there for several years (and elections) now. The NDP does not have a new policy.

But they've had the same leader for years and their policy priorities have remained similar. So I do think it's a good question exactly why they're resonating so much right now.

This is a very good point.

You have shown many times in this thread you don't understand the NDP support in Quebec, or why people are leaning toward them. When you stop being wrong about the numbers we can talk. GOTV wont matter in this type of situation, people aren't unmotivated they may be fickle but they will go vote. GOTV only gets the unmotivated out, they don't change minds.

On the contrary, I have presented several good explanations for the NDP support in Quebec. Primarily, I think that people in Quebec are looking for a third-way out of the federalist/sovereigntist impasse. This election, some people have latched on to the NDP.

There is no doubt the support exists but I would be very surprised if the NDP received 36% in Quebec on May 2nd. But if it did, and the NDP elected 50 MPs from Quebec, the NDP caucus would quickly turn into a zoo. (Try to imagine the Bloc and the NDP, circa 2006, meeting as a single caucus.)

----

The NDP has a reputation for being the most centralizing party in Ottawa. The NDP wants to make the federal government stronger and have it intrude in many provincial jurisdictions. I don't know how this would square with a caucus owing many of their seats to the votes of Quebec nationalists.

[nittanylionstorm07]

The good news for Liberals in this story is 7 years later Romanow was sitting in the big chair. Swings happen, movements, and people seize a moment. After whatever party gets that movement fullfils its mandate it must change said mandate or risk becoming stale. This is what Harper is facing right now.

That's why the 25th Prime Minister of Canada will be Brad Wall.

Swings always happen.

[punked]

It's not th war in Afghanistan. Canada has had troops there for several years (and elections) now. The NDP does not have a new policy.

It very much is Afghanistan. The Liberals were doing very well in the polls until they let their leader into the debates to shout at Layton about the war. After that it was a tanksville for the Liberals and Bloc. It would be the Bloc if their leader could have gotten on board on the debate. Jack was the only saying "Get the troops out" that night.

[August1991]

Roy Romanow Lost to a gas station attendant in that election. You can't tell me a gas station in their 20s had a better GOTV then Roy Romanow. Those things don't matter when you have movement.

This is not "a throw the bums out" type of vote or election in Quebec although I can understand the comparison. People are not fed up of a specific political party or leader (although Charest is hardly popular). They are tired of an entire debate. People are looking for an alternative. Layton happens to be standing in the right place at the right time. Edited April 26, 2011 by August1991

[Harry]

Combined with the abortion issue, the NDP is going to reverse all the Harper funding cuts to women's groups. The Conservatives have just lost the women's vote, that is, if they ever had it.

Edited April 26, 2011 by Harry

[punked]

This is not "a throw the bums out" type of vote or election in Quebec although I can understand the comparison. People are not fed up of a specific political party or leader (although Charest is hardly popular). They are tired of an entire debate. Layton happens to be standing in the right place at the right time.

Hey we have had those types of elections to. The 1998 NS election it wasn't people were pissed at the Liberals in NS they just thought they needed an alternative that wasn't the Conservatives. In NS they pub the Liberals on probation and when nothing changed switched the party with the NDP as the alternative to the Conservatives. 10 years Later they gave the NDP a chance to govern.

[August1991]

It would be the Bloc if their leader could have gotten on board on the debate. Jack was the only saying "Get the troops out" that night.

Sorry, Duceppe dominated the debate and the Bloc's position on Afghanistan and military expenditures is very clear and well-known.

While the Liberals and Tories in Quebec are down modestly, it is the shift of votes from the Bloc to the NDP that is striking.

[punked]

Combined with the abortion issue, the NDP is going to reverse all the Harper funding cuts to women's groups. The Conservatives have just lost the women's vote, that is, if they ever had it.

No they will keep the soccer mom vote that is where their women vote comes from.

[punked]

Sorry, Duceppe dominated the debate and the Bloc's position on Afghanistan and military expenditures is very clear and well-known.

While the Liberals and Tories in Quebec are down modestly, it is the shift of votes from the Bloc to the NDP that is striking.

It may very well be but it was Jack in the debate getting it from all sides about Afghanistan and it was Jack who put Quebec's opinion forward.

[wyly]

That's why the 25th Prime Minister of Canada will be Brad Wall.

Swings always happen.

I'm thinking if he leaves civic politics Naheed Nenshi has a potential future as Premier then PM...on academic qualifications to run a government I don't know of any politician that can match him...

[punked]

I'm thinking if he leaves civic politics Naheed Nenshi has a potential future as Premier then PM...on academic qualifications to run a government I don't know of any politician that can match him...

Can you name the last Premier that became PM? It doesn't happen because you spend 5 years blaming Ottawa and every other province for your problems so the quotes they got on you are endless.

[Harry]

Ironic. Harper's millions of dollars in ads against Ignatieff may have handed the victory to Layton.

Edited April 26, 2011 by Harry

[Harry]

This poll is sure reverberating across the land tonite.

I can’t say this on Akin’s show, but holy shit la merde!

Now panic and freak out

http://warrenkinsella.com/2011/04/about-to-go-on-david-akins-show/

[Battletoads]

This poll is sure reverberating across the land tonite.

I'm going to have to stop reading polls, I may be disappointed on election night...

However the NDP's biggest problem, the vote liberal or else threat may be nullified. Hell the NDP may be able to pull the 'Vote NDP or else' card out of their hat if this pole is true.

Heh I wonder if those Cons will continue to cheer on the NDP now

[jbg]

I agree we will know on May 2 but I will tell you as an NDPer I am super stoked.

As a "spectator NDPer" I'm not so sure.

[Roger Steele]

Can you name the last Premier that became PM? It doesn't happen because you spend 5 years blaming Ottawa and every other province for your problems so the quotes they got on you are endless.

I agree. The transformation only works the other way. Leader of the federal opposition gets tired of losing on the big scene and goes provincial so the loses aren't so wide sweeping. A Premier could never run for the leader of a Federal party as you say they have way too much baggage and dirt on them. Sort of the same problem Ignatieff has, too many quotes that make him more American than Canadian and too many public appearances with his foot in his mouth.

[Bryan]

Heh I wonder if those Cons will continue to cheer on the NDP now

Hell yeah. Things are looking pretty good for both the CPC and NDP.

Almost everyone other than Frank "Outlier" Graves agrees:

Nanos:

CPC: 39.2

NDP: 23.6

LPC: 25.6

BQ: 6.5

GRN: 3.6

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110424-BallotE.pdf

Environics:

CPC: 39

NDP: 25

LPC:22

BQ: 7

GRN: 6

http://www.environics.ca/news-and-insights?news_id=76

Ipsos:

CPC: 43

NDP: 24

LPC: 21

BQ: 6

GRN: 4

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5218

The more realistic scenario of a Conservative majority with an NDP opposition is still a significant shift that any NDP fan should be excited by. Either way, it still means greatly diminished Liberal and Bloc seat counts... good for everyone!

[TimG]

Hell yeah. Things are looking pretty good for both the CPC and NDP.

The Environics and Ipsos Reid polls were done on the 21th.

[Harry]

There definitely will not be any Harper majority, and it is now questionable whether or not Harper will even get a minority.

In case you haven't noticed the NDP surge is turning into a tsunami. And omitting polls because you don't like the results is quite pathetic.

EKOS is forcasting today 100 seasts for the surging NDP and there is still 6 days left before the vote. Hang onto to your hat, as this race is far from over.

Most Recent polling:

Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / LIbs / Bloc

Apr 24 / EKOS / 33.7% / 28% / 23.7% / 6.2% Less than 6% gap with a surging NDP

Apr 24 / Nanos / 39.2% / 23.6% / 25.6% /

Apr 21 / Envi / 39% / 25% / 22% /

Apr 20 / Ipsos / 43% / 24% / 21% / 6%

Apr 16 / Angus R / 36% / 25% / 25% /

Edited April 26, 2011 by Harry

[Bryan]

And omitting polls because you don't like the results is quite pathetic.

I'm omitting EKOS because his results have a track record of being at odds with reality. Going back several years, his data consistently makes CPC support look lower than it really is.

I do not disagree with the surge in NDP support, that obviously IS happening. There is just no credible evidence at this time that it's coming at the expense of the CPC. It's not an entrenched position on my part though. If someone more credible like Nanos or Ipsos confirms it, I'll gladly defer.

[Harry]

Party supporters often want to shoot the messenger.

Cherry pick the polls all you want - it just weakens your case.

[Bryan]

Party supporters often want to shoot the messenger.

Cherry pick the polls all you want - it just weakens your case.

You're the one cherry-picking the least accurate poll and celebrating like it is a fact.

You didn't see me getting excited by Compas showing CPC at 45 earlier in the campaign. That's because I could see that was an obvious outlier, and deferred to more credible polls. If you had a shred of intelligence, you'd be tempering your enthusiasm until you saw similar numbers from someone more credible than Frank Graves.

Edited April 26, 2011 by Bryan

[Harry]

There will be more polls out soon and we shall see where this is all going.

But in the meantime as I have said, you just lose credibility when you decide to omit polls that you don't like.

You're the one cherry-picking the least accurate poll and celebrating like it is a fact.

You didn't see me getting excited by Compas showing CPC at 45 earlier in the campaign. That's because I could see that was an obvious outlier, and deferred to more credible polls. If you had a shred of intelligence, you'd be tempering your enthusiasm until you saw similar numbers from someone more credible than Frank Graves.

[TimG]

With that said, what I find striking is that in my anecdotal experience, some committed sovereigntists are now saying that they will vote NDP. (I don't quite understand why... )

I think I see what is going on. Quebeqers have realized that if they send a large NDP contingent to Ottawa they will basically own the NDP party. If the NDP ends up in power as a coalition then the large Quebec caucus will ensure a steady suppply of goodies for Quebec. It is dream come true for a Quebec seperatists and a nightmare for Canada. There is no other party which is so weak it could be effectively taken oven by Quebec nationalists/seperatists. Edited April 26, 2011 by TimG