Federal Election Polls

WWWTT · July 26, 2015

you are being anal and disingenuous! Again, what figure was blasted across media, whether Postmedia newspapers or other? Again, the 38% figure. Again, as I just linked to you directly... Mainstreet's own article speaks to the 34% number when undecided are factored... as compared to 30% for both the NDP and Liberal.

That is not the undecided data, those are the combined first and second choice numbers. Last time you voted federally, were you asked to combine or rank your choices, or to pick just one?

Lots of talk about one single poll.

Still lots of polls out there. And still an election call, then election campaign coming up.

It's clearly obvious that the conservatives were taking a real hard shot in the nuts with all the polls placing them in second, and even third place!

What a coincidence that a BRAND SPANKING NEW CONSERVATIVE PARTISAN pollster shows up THE SAME WEEK as the baby bonus cheques roll out.

I'm done with this debate on one single poll and moving on.

WWWTT

waldo · July 26, 2015

I'm being 100% upfront and honest, which is 180 degrees from where you're coming from. Nobody claimed anything about a momentum tracker, or combining first and second choices. YOU claimed the undecided data was not in the Post stories, and that was categorically false-- It's right there, in the first few paragraphs. Moving the goal posts by pretending that you meant something else doesn't change that.

my pointed references were to the hype, reporting emphasis and misleading headlines that only played up the decided... headlines, emphasis and reporting that went well beyond Postmedia. My references were to Postmedia completely ignoring the single-day prior poll from Forum that had the Harper Conservatives in 3rd place. The verbiage within the Mainstreet web-site's own article on the poll doesn't say word one about the undecided votes... it does play up the "momentum tracker". For a guy, you, who indicated you knew nothing about Mainstreet, you're sure going the extra mile to pump that poll, hey! :lol:

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WWWTT · July 29, 2015

Well here we go, another poll.

But this time, from a little more established pollster.

http://globalnews.ca/news/2135999/tories-close-gap-but-ndp-still-leads-poll-as-election-draws-nearer/

Looks like those baby bonus cheques may have given the conservatives a bounce.

Or if we were to give credit to the mainstreet poll, the conservatives have already slid 5 points and are back behind the NDP.

Either way, the NDP have not moved anything significant from their position of the last few weeks.

WWWTT

Topaz · July 29, 2015

Are people too dumb to know that ANY of the parties can deliver on the baby bonus?? Is that the only reason to vote for a party?? I hope the debates are very revealing to Canadians what the Tories have been putting in those huge bills and how they are paying more taxes. IF Harper loses, how much shredding is going to happen in the PMO?

Smallc · July 29, 2015

Are people too dumb to know that ANY of the parties can deliver on the baby bonus?? Is that the only reason to vote for a party?? I hope the debates are very revealing to Canadians what the Tories have been putting in those huge bills and how they are paying more taxes. IF Harper loses, how much shredding is going to happen in the PMO?

Any actual facts in there?

On Guard for Thee · July 29, 2015

Are people too dumb to know that ANY of the parties can deliver on the baby bonus?? Is that the only reason to vote for a party?? I hope the debates are very revealing to Canadians what the Tories have been putting in those huge bills and how they are paying more taxes. IF Harper loses, how much shredding is going to happen in the PMO?

I am betting the match up between Harper and Mulcair will be best one to catch. Those endless talking points Harper always uses might have got him through QP, but not so much in an actual debate.

Keepitsimple · July 29, 2015

As has been mentioned before - the Tories keep attacking the Liberals because they are the easiest party from which to shake loose some votes......and Ontario is fertile territory for the Tories to maintain their dominance. Kathleen Wynne will act as an anchor around Trudeau's neck. Because of their perceived ultra-close relationship - their parties are viewed as Kissin' Cousins......and nothing good can come of that. How close are they? Have a look:

https://www.google.ca/search?q=picture+of+wynne+and+trudeau&biw=1237&bih=584&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0CBwQsARqFQoTCPz9qreZ_sYCFUMSkgodjioPfw

waldo · July 29, 2015

Simple... are you saying perceived associations are important to an electorate?

Ash74 · July 29, 2015

Simple... are you saying perceived associations are important to an electorate?

These were bad choices with a bad system that is our senate.

But by the same argument the three shown above combined crimes cannot touch Ontario

n-JUSTIN-TRUDEAU-KATHLEEN-WYNNE-large.jp

overthere · July 29, 2015

As has been mentioned before - the Tories keep attacking the Liberals because they are the easiest party from which to shake loose some votes.

Not quite.... the Libs are the ONLY party from which the Cons can take votes. Not just the easiest. The Cons did just that in the last election to gain a majority, and the NDP also got benefit from Lib voter defection. Both parties can smell Trudeau blood leaking into in the water this time around.

The NDP aren't safe though even if they won't lose anything to the Cons... The Libs are still a threat to them for lefty votes, and In Quebec the Bloc may make a small resurgence at their expense.

Keepitsimple · July 29, 2015

Simple... are you saying perceived associations are important to an electorate?

Very poor diversion. No - I'm saying when you expose so much political capital into continually supporting an Ontario Liberal government and leader that has so under-performed (to put it extremely mildly), people rightly draw a link between Trudeau and Wynne - and as I said - she's an anchor around his neck....I won't bother cluttering up the board with pictures. This link says it all.......

https://www.google.ca/search?q=picture+of+wynne+and+trudeau&biw=1237&bih=584&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0CBwQsARqFQoTCPz9qreZ_sYCFUMSkgodjioPfw#imgrc=_

waldo · July 29, 2015

Very poor diversion. No - I'm saying when you expose so much political capital into continually supporting an Ontario Liberal government and leader that has so under-performed (to put it extremely mildly), people rightly draw a link between Trudeau and Wynne - and as I said - she's an anchor around his neck....

and yet... per the latest Ontario polling available (from Forum Research), "the people" of Ontario aren't flocking to the Ontario CPC. If you look at the trendlines below, the Ontario CPC has been on a slow steady decline, with the Ontario NDP surging ahead... and what's this... what's that latest uptick for the Ontario Wynne led Liberals (in association with the down-sliding Ontario CPC and Ontario NDP. Hey Simple? Please revise your talking point!

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waldo · July 29, 2015

These were bad choices with a bad system that is our senate.

But by the same argument the three shown above combined crimes cannot touch Ontario

Ontario crimes???

Keepitsimple · July 29, 2015

and yet... per the latest Ontario polling available (from Forum Research), "the people" of Ontario aren't flocking to the Ontario CPC. If you look at the trendlines below, the Ontario CPC has been on a slow steady decline, with the Ontario NDP surging ahead... and what's this... what's that latest uptick for the Ontario Wynne led Liberals (in association with the down-sliding Ontario CPC and Ontario NDP. Hey Simple? Please revise your talking point!

Another poor diversion - Patrick Brown - a leader nobody knows about yet - and hasn't even made an appearance at Queen's Park.....and yet the Provincial Tories are still ahead of Wynne. Hey - if you think Justin Trudeau's tight relationship with Kathleen Wynne is an advantage - good for you - and good luck with that! My opinion is to the contrary.

waldo · July 29, 2015

Another poor diversion - Patrick Brown - a leader nobody knows about yet - and hasn't even made an appearance at Queen's Park.....and yet the Provincial Tories are still ahead of Wynne. Hey - if you think Justin Trudeau's tight relationship with Kathleen Wynne is an advantage - good for you - and good luck with that! My opinion is to the contrary.

I appreciate you don't like when your talking-point bubbles are burst! If, as you say, the Ontario electorate was so put off by the Wynne Liberals, that trending line would not show the recent Liberal uptick; along with that slow steady CPC decline. Youse guys are the ones making these ties between federal and provincial parties... here's a thought for you: they aren't the same parties!

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socialist · July 29, 2015

I appreciate you don't like when your talking-point bubbles are burst! If, as you say, the Ontario electorate was so put off by the Wynne Liberals, that trending line would not show the recent Liberal uptick; along with that slow steady CPC decline. Youse guys are the ones making these ties between federal and provincial parties... here's a thought for you: they aren't the same parties!

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Wynne better do what's right for Ontario teachers. Many votes there.

Ash74 · July 29, 2015

I appreciate you don't like when your talking-point bubbles are burst! If, as you say, the Ontario electorate was so put off by the Wynne Liberals, that trending line would not show the recent Liberal uptick; along with that slow steady CPC decline. Youse guys are the ones making these ties between federal and provincial parties... here's a thought for you: they aren't the same parties!

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Fair enough but Ontario has a history of not voting in the same Federal Party that is in office Provincially.

Wynne better do what's right for Ontario teachers. Many votes there.

I have little doubt the teachers will be payed off

Keepitsimple · July 29, 2015

I appreciate you don't like when your talking-point bubbles are burst! If, as you say, the Ontario electorate was so put off by the Wynne Liberals, that trending line would not show the recent Liberal uptick; along with that slow steady CPC decline. Youse guys are the ones making these ties between federal and provincial parties... here's a thought for you: they aren't the same parties!

.

....and here's a thought for you.....it doesn't matter that there is no official affiliation between the Provincial and Federal Liberals.....and I never said there was. What matters is how the public views the relationship between Wynne (a Liberal) and Trudeau (a Liberal) - and as I've shown - that relationship is very, very close. As I said - if you think it's of no concern for the Liberals - good for you.

Smallc · July 29, 2015

For a guy everyone hates Harper is doing pretty good.

On Guard for Thee · July 29, 2015

For a guy everyone hates Harper is doing pretty good.

At the very least, what is good is he will never see another majority.

Smallc · July 29, 2015

At the very least, what is good is he will never see another majority.

You can't predict that at this point.

On Guard for Thee · July 29, 2015

You can't predict that at this point.

Sure you can, that's what polling does. It would take a major shift to give the CPC anything more than a very slim majority, and that's before Duffy resumes and the debates happen.

I meant slim minority

Edited July 29, 2015 by On Guard for Thee

Smallc · July 29, 2015

Sure you can, that's what polling does. It would take a major shift to give the CPC anything more than a very slim majority, and that's before Duffy resumes and the debates happen.

At this point we could end up with anything. It's too far out yet.