Federal Election Polls

[Derek 2.0]

I provided a summation; this summation:

your "That" reference speaks to you stating, unequivocally, that the NDP paid the involved employees for work/actions unrelated to the support of the related MPs... along with, as you say, the NDP used HOC/GoC assets for party purposes.....

I asked if you would care to cite the IBOE summary findings in that regard? Your response is, "go fetch"!

No, I've already provided both MSM reports and the minutes from the IBOE.........as said, if you want to find which NDP member broke which exact rule, as there are upwards of 30+ current and former NDP members with owed expenses, you can very well "go fetch".....I even provided the Federal law, By-laws and the listing of the various minutes of each meeting for the last several years (refuting your, and the NDP's, claim of secrecy).....

you maintain that Federal law was broken by the NDP in regards the IBOE declaring an internal bylaw was broken...

I asked if you would care to cite the specific bylaw that speaks to the physical location of employees of Members of Parliament? Your response is, "go fetch"!

Already cited above.........furthermore, in pdf format, the Members allowance and service manual:

For the purpose of clarity, subsection 4(3) of the Members By-law defines specific activities that are not part of parliamentary functions.

For greater certainty, the following activities, when performed by a Member, are not parliamentary functions:

(a) activities related to the private interests of a Member or a Member’s immediate family;

( activities related to the administration, organization and internal communications of a political party, including participation in a party leadership campaign or convention, solicitations of contributions and solicitations of membership to a political party;

© activities related to a Member’s re-election;

(d) activities designed, in the context of a federal, provincial, or municipal election, or any other local election, to support or oppose a political party or an individual candidate; and

(e) activities that are related to a meeting of an electoral district association, as defined in the Canada Elections Act, and that are carried out for nomination, electoral or sponsorship purposes or that relate to soliciting contributions or membership.

As cited several times, Commons Administrators found numerous NDP MP were breaking the rules, in turn, the Board of Internal Economy ruled the NDP owed over $ 2.7 million for the misuse of Parliamentary funds, in addition to over $ 1 million owed to Canada Post for the misuse of free mailings........

The NDP owe Canadian taxpayers nearly $4 million dollars for their abuse of Government funds..........The entire Senate Scandal was a result of ~$ 1 million dollars in fraudulent claims by Tory and Liberal Senators, resulting in numerous investigations and legal action..........

The Federal NDP is nearly four times as bad as the Senate, the Senate that the NDP want to abolish as a result of its misuse of taxpayer funds.........ironic, don't you think?

[Derek 2.0]

early election call... extend upon the campaign period... bankrupt the Opposition parties early and leave an open advertising path toward the campaign end? Oh my!

Cunning Tories may plan early election call — with aim of draining opponents’ finances

And in such a period, I'd assume, the NDP will be able to produce an add highlighting the Prime Minister's time in Quebec, having a campaign function at a club owned by a person with alleged ties to the Mafia and Quebec corruption, with donations offered in brown paper bags.........oh wait......

[waldo]

No, I've already provided both MSM reports and the minutes from the IBOE.........as said, if you want to find which NDP member broke which exact rule, as there are upwards of 30+ current and former NDP members with owed expenses, you can very well "go fetch".....I even provided the Federal law, By-laws and the listing of the various minutes of each meeting for the last several years (refuting your, and the NDP's, claim of secrecy).....

BS you have! To the specific issue of your claimed, "payment for work/actions unrelated to the support of the related MPs"... you have yet to provide anything that directly speaks to a BOIE finding in that regard. All you've done is grossly distract and deflect from addressing that most specific claim you're making... one you state reflect directly upon a BOIE finding. Somehow, you just can't manage to quote direct wording to that end... all you can manage after having your bluster-busted is to throw down reams of links to reams of documents ala yet another of your GO-FETCH routines!

[Derek 2.0]

Somehow, you just can't manage to quote direct wording to that end...

Huh?

[PrimeNumber]

By being obtuse and providing nothing but massive walls of text you have to read through yourself, he thinks he's somehow got you beat. He never links to the exact part, it's a little game he plays but always seems to lose.

[cybercoma]

Someone who doesn't cite directly obviously doesn't know what they're talking about and just parroting party lines.

[Derek 2.0]

The most recent Leger poll has the NDP and Tories tied at 32%, as a result, CBC's Poll Tracker has the NDP leading the Tories by 3%, with the Tories having the greatest change among the parties with an increase of 0.6 points.

[Smallc]

And that's during a bad news period.

[waldo]

The most recent Leger poll has the NDP and Tories tied at 32%, as a result, CBC's Poll Tracker has the NDP leading the Tories by 3%, with the Tories having the greatest change among the parties with an increase of 0.6 points.

And that's during a bad news period.

no - the most recent July 16 projection reflects upon 3 new polls; the, as you say, result is actually a seat projection decrease for Harper Conservatives, an increase for the NDP, with the Liberals the same (relative to the prior July 7 projection):

as for the Leger poll, one would have to check the weighting assigned, but Grenier states: "Since Léger was last in the field at the end of April, its survey is less helpful in figuring out the trends." The real kicker in that poll is the BQ result... and the honeymoon apparently over for Duceppe! Hey now, weren't you the guy predicting big things for the Harper Conservatives in Quebec based on a rallying BQ vote that would undercut the NDP? That was you right?

[Derek 2.0]

no - the most recent July 16 projection reflects upon 3 new polls; the, as you say, result is actually a seat projection decrease for Harper Conservatives, an increase for the NDP, with the Liberals the same (relative to the prior July 7 projection):

I didn't speak to the seat projection, but this passage:

• The Conservative Party had the largest change, up 0.6 points since the last poll average calculations.

As to the July 16 seat projections, I could be wrong, but I would assume they don't include data released on July 17...........

Edited July 21, 2015 by Derek 2.0

[Evening Star]

0.6 points is less than the margin of error of any of these polls; it's nothing I'd get very excited about.

[Derek 2.0]

0.6 points is less than the margin of error of any of these polls; it's nothing I'd get very excited about.

And I'm not, 3 months from the election, polls mean little, other than as a discussion point on a political web forum.........

[Bryan]

The most recent Leger poll has the NDP and Tories tied at 32%

Trudeau in fourth place in Quebec?!?

[On Guard for Thee]

I bet it is meaning something to Harper. The attack ads are failing, the economy is in recession, the Duffy trial is looming, the fair elections act may get the boot from the SCC before the election, and unless he really wants to hide under his bed, Harper will have to face Mulcair in a debate. What else could go wrong....

[Derek 2.0]

Trudeau in fourth place in Quebec?!?

I didn't even notice that, but did notice the NDP surge in the Liberal bastion of the Atlantic.........

[Keepitsimple]

On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister, Trudeau has fallen all the way to 16%. On that score, Conservative message that "he's just not ready" has finally gained traction. All the public needed was Trudeau's dismal performance to validate the message.....and he's provided it in spades. We'll see how Mulcair handles the pressure of having to defend his policies. Will he revert to Angry Tom? Will his natural arrogance surface? He's got a chance but there's a long way to go.

[BC_chick]

And I'm not, 3 months from the election, polls mean little, other than as a discussion point on a political web forum.........

Polls indicate the probable chances of an electoral outcome "if an election were held today". They are not meant to be relevant for anything beyond the immediate future and no sane person would argue otherwise.

However, the important thing to note months away from an election is where the trends are taking place. The LPC graph show a nosedive in support while the NDP graph is trending upwards.

The CPC, meanwhile, have hovered within the margin of error rate with ~30%. There is no trend. No change. They are down to their die-hard base support.

What that means is Harper is either gonna be leader of the opposition or an impotent prime-minister with a lot of baggage - a la Paul Martin.

My money is on the former, but even as the latter he's as good as gone.

Edited July 21, 2015 by BC_chick

[waldo]

I didn't speak to the seat projection

As to the July 16 seat projections, I could be wrong, but I would assume they don't include data released on July 17...........

pro tip: if you're going to trumpet something with a Poll Tracker linked reference you should really learn how to read it! That Leger (internet only) survey was done over the dates 7/13 - 7/16... and is included within the latest projection. Seat projection, particularly when broken down to the regional level, should be your key, hey!

what? No comment about the apparent 'bubble-bursting' of your oft repeated statements about the BQ working to prop up Harper Conservatives in Quebec at the expense of the NDP?

[Derek 2.0]

Polls indicate the probable chances of an electoral outcome "if an election were held today". They are not meant to be relevant for anything beyond the immediate future and no sane person would argue otherwise.

However, the important thing to note months away from an election is where the trends are taking place. The LPC graph show a nosedive in support while the NDP graph is trending upwards.

The CPC, meanwhile, have hovered within the margin of error rate with ~30%. There is no trend. No change.

What that means is Harper is either gonna be leader of the opposition or an impotent prime-minister with a lot of baggage - a la Paul Martin.

My money is on the former, but even as the latter he's as good as gone.

~3 months prior to the 2011 election, EKOS polled the Tories at ~32%, the Liberals at ~27% and the NDP at ~15%............The Tories won with over 39% 3 months later...3 months prior to the 2008 election, the Tories were polling in the very low 30s, yet won three month later with nearly ~38% of the vote.........~3 months prior to the 2006 election, the Tories were polling in the high 20s and low 30, then won with ~36-37% of the vote.

Place your bets as you may........

[waldo]

Will he revert to Angry Tom? Will his natural arrogance surface?

lots of Harper Conservative supporters building up the "Angry Tom" meme! Speaking of arrogance, what type is Harper's?

[Derek 2.0]

pro tip: if you're going to trumpet something with a Poll Tracker linked reference you should really learn how to read it! That Leger (internet only) survey was done over the dates 7/13 - 7/16... and is included within the latest projection. Seat projection, particularly when broken down to the regional level, should be your key, hey!

what? No comment about the apparent 'bubble-bursting' of your oft repeated statements about the BQ working to prop up Harper Conservatives in Quebec at the expense of the NDP?

Is it? I would have assumed the Leger site dating the poll the 17th would have missed the trackers results for the 16th.........

[waldo]

~3 months prior to the 2011 election, EKOS polled the Tories at ~32%, the Liberals at ~27% and the NDP at ~15%............

and that 3 month prior poll you link to also had the NDP @ 14% ... with an actual result of 30%; the Liberals @ 27% ... with an actual result of 19%. What was your point again in linking to a 3 month prior poll for the prior election?

[waldo]

Is it? I would have assumed the Leger site dating the poll the 17th would have missed the trackers results for the 16th.........

I even offered you a pro-tip! Please... stick with your assumptions as they lend themselves to bursting your bubble!

[Derek 2.0]

and that 3 month prior poll you link to also had the NDP @ 14% ... with an actual result of 30%; the Liberals @ 27% ... with an actual result of 19%. What was your point again in linking to a 3 month prior poll for the prior election?

That 3 months prior to the election, polls offer little clairvoyance as to the actual result......

[BC_chick]

~3 months prior to the 2011 election, EKOS polled the Tories at ~32%, the Liberals at ~27% and the NDP at ~15%............The Tories won with over 39% 3 months later...3 months prior to the 2008 election, the Tories were polling in the very low 30s, yet won three month later with nearly ~38% of the vote.........~3 months prior to the 2006 election, the Tories were polling in the high 20s and low 30, then won with ~36-37% of the vote.

Place your bets as you may........

You obviously completely misread my post because in my first paragraph agreed with you. Thereafter I made my point about trends and how the CPC has been stagnant.

That wasn't the case in previous elections.