wyly Posted January 28, 2011 Report Share Posted January 28, 2011 (edited) That isn't the question at all. The lack of understanding of the actual state of politcs here is baffling. The province is driving the Canadian economy and questions as utterly as ignorant as this are asked repeatedly...... Ted Morton won't even win the nomination.....again. Review: he lost last time because he was seen as what he is: an ignorant, far right, dinsoaur with no appeal to the vast majority of Albertans who are in fact, proven fact, centrist in nature. The p[roof? Look tpo the last leadership campaign, when Farmer Ed scooted up the middle and beat the corporate champ Jim Dinning and the ne0-Nazi Morton. That happened because of the unusual voting system the Tories employ, a preferential system whereby anybody from any party can pay $5 and essentially elect the next premier. That is how and why Stelmach won: people recognized Morton was going to get a few first choice ballots and enough second choice ballots to win. Many nornally univolved voters of every stripe knew Morton would be a complete disaster and acted to deny him the premiers chair. One big, big problem though: Farmer Ned is not from Calgary, which doomed him. All Alberta Premiers must be from Calgary, no exceptions. Fast forward to now. Morton is still the same woman and gay hating bigot he has always been, except now the church people and the hard right have become the Wild Rose Party, which he is not a member ofm at least not formally. And if he were to join them, their influence is much too small because redneck jokes aside, Alberta is the same as the rest of Canada: happiest with a centrist guy. So Mporton won't win the leadership this time either. Danielle Smith will win maybe 5 seats at best. The liberals are in utter disarray and will lose a few seats to the Alberta Party. The NDP will screw the pooch, they badly need to drop Brian Mason and get the much smarter and better loooking Rachel Notley front and center. So who will win the leadership and become the next Premier with a big fat Tory majority again? I'm guessing Gary Mar is the frontrunner, a likeable and very competent guy who was a Cabinet Minister for many years and is currently a lobbyist/envoy for AB in Washington DC. Her is a centrist and he is from Calgary, two prerequisites. There are others, but I'll bet on Mar for now. good assesment of Morton...he'll be battling for the same far right rural voters as the wild rose...canadians still don't get the difference between rural and urban voters in alberta they may vote the same way but for different reasons, urban voters are much more socially liberal but pro oil patch/jobs...a shift to the far hard could see the urban vote move to a more moderate party like the Alberta Party is intending to become, without the the liberal baggage... Edited January 28, 2011 by wyly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellowtraveller Posted January 29, 2011 Report Share Posted January 29, 2011 The best the Alberta Party can hope for is to pick up a few of the Liberals(who are really in complete disarrary provincially), centrist NDP and perhaps a few Tories. In the end, it won't amount to anything. The church and hard right lobby that nearly did it for Morton last time have become Wild REose and are simply too small to do anything significant. The Tories will elect a centrist leader again(from Calgary) and will win another easy majority. I think the next election is scheduled for 2012, I expect the new leader to act well before then and be coronated late in 2011. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellowtraveller Posted January 29, 2011 Report Share Posted January 29, 2011 Oh, and the Stelmach camp is complaining that 'right wing' dissent within the Party is what forced Ed out. That is codespeak for 'disgruntled Calgary power brokers who have run the province forever'. In the last leadership campaign Jim Dinning was their choice and considered a lock, but they misinterpreted their own very liberal voting system, the depth and strength of the second tier support for Morton, and ultimately completely overlooked how ridiculously easy it was for anybody at all to step in and vote for a new Tory leader. Morton nearly hikacked the game from Dinnning, but forces outside the Party entirely picked Stelmach. They won't make any of those mistakes again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerry J. Fortin Posted January 31, 2011 Report Share Posted January 31, 2011 Oh, and the Stelmach camp is complaining that 'right wing' dissent within the Party is what forced Ed out. That is codespeak for 'disgruntled Calgary power brokers who have run the province forever'. In the last leadership campaign Jim Dinning was their choice and considered a lock, but they misinterpreted their own very liberal voting system, the depth and strength of the second tier support for Morton, and ultimately completely overlooked how ridiculously easy it was for anybody at all to step in and vote for a new Tory leader. Morton nearly hikacked the game from Dinnning, but forces outside the Party entirely picked Stelmach. They won't make any of those mistakes again. I am not sure that the party (PC) has much left to say actually. Yes they will pick a new leader, and yes they will get another Premier to sit in the office. Even so, this next election cycle will see Wildrose and Alberta Party MLA's elected and installed in office. In my view the greatest likely outcome is a minority government, the last chance for the PC folks. Given enough time they will fade away into the annals of history. The next government will be compelled to revamp the Heritage Fund about six ways from Sunday. The next government has to deal with the environment, of which there are numerous bricks hanging over our heads. The next government has to deal with the nuclear power issues, and they will be shocking to most of us. The next government will have to deal with far more than what most of us would believe possible. WE are nearing a crossroad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellowtraveller Posted January 31, 2011 Report Share Posted January 31, 2011 I am not sure that the party (PC) has much left to say actually. Why do they have to say anything, given the Legion of Clown alternatives they face at every election?Yes they will pick a new leader, and yes they will get another Premier to sit in the office. Man, you are really stepping out on a limb with those statements.this next election cycle will see Wildrose and Alberta Party MLA's elected and installed in office.Yep, they might get ten total between them, and another 6 to perhaps 8 total from the NDP and Liberals, which leaves roughly 60 for the Tories. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wyly Posted February 1, 2011 Report Share Posted February 1, 2011 The best the Alberta Party can hope for is to pick up a few of the Liberals(who are really in complete disarrary provincially), centrist NDP and perhaps a few Tories. In the end, it won't amount to anything. The church and hard right lobby that nearly did it for Morton last time have become Wild REose and are simply too small to do anything significant. The Tories will elect a centrist leader again(from Calgary) and will win another easy majority. I think the next election is scheduled for 2012, I expect the new leader to act well before then and be coronated late in 2011. and no one gave a left leaning muslim professor any chance of becoming mayor of calgary versus his conservative christian adversaries...no one had even heard of the guy until after the election campaign had begun... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerry J. Fortin Posted February 2, 2011 Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 and no one gave a left leaning muslim professor any chance of becoming mayor of calgary versus his conservative christian adversaries...no one had even heard of the guy until after the election campaign had begun... I could very well be one of very damned few citizens of Alberta that will say to folks that the PC government has worn out its mandate. Time for a paradigm shift. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Weber Posted February 2, 2011 Report Share Posted February 2, 2011 I could very well be one of very damned few citizens of Alberta that will say to folks that the PC government has worn out its mandate. Time for a paradigm shift. Paradigm shift to what?? The batshite crazy Right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerry J. Fortin Posted February 3, 2011 Report Share Posted February 3, 2011 Paradigm shift to what?? The batshite crazy Right? Until the arrival of the Wildrose folks, I thought the PC's were crazy right wing nut bars. The shift will be to slightly right of center, in other words towards the Alberta Party. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alta4ever Posted February 3, 2011 Report Share Posted February 3, 2011 Until the arrival of the Wildrose folks, I thought the PC's were crazy right wing nut bars. The shift will be to slightly right of center, in other words towards the Alberta Party. PPPFFFFTTTTT they are left of the left PC's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerry J. Fortin Posted February 3, 2011 Report Share Posted February 3, 2011 PPPFFFFTTTTT they are left of the left PC's The Wildrose folks think that the PC's are as far left as the Liberals. The right wing is where most politicians in Alberta like to fly. The reality is that most Alberta citizens are very much closer to the centre nowadays. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wyly Posted February 3, 2011 Report Share Posted February 3, 2011 I could very well be one of very damned few citizens of Alberta that will say to folks that the PC government has worn out its mandate. Time for a paradigm shift. my kids voted for the first time as did many of their college mates a demographic that traditionally does not vote, and they voted for Naheed Nenshi and his Purple Revolution...so not you're not alone there are thousands more...it'll be interesting to see what impetus Nenshi has for the growth of the Alberta Party... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wyly Posted February 3, 2011 Report Share Posted February 3, 2011 Paradigm shift to what?? The batshite crazy Right? apt description for the wildrose...neo-cons, fundamental christians and no doubt a good number of aryan nations types... probably a good thing for the province we'll be able to see the difference between the moderate conservatives we can respect and the rightwing loons who hide among them... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellowtraveller Posted February 3, 2011 Report Share Posted February 3, 2011 Until the arrival of the Wildrose folks, I thought the PC's were crazy right wing nut bars. The shift will be to slightly right of center, in other words towards the Alberta Party. The Alberta Party has no leader, one MLA, no polciies, no money and no hope whatsoever of going anywhere in our lifetimes. They will attract a few defecting Liberals, who are even more sad sack than the Alberta Party.The Wildrose Alliance have a charismatic leader, a bit of money, a lot of far right policies and will have now peaked out as far as membership interest goes. Think of them as the NDP of the right, no hopers all. probably a good thing for the province we'll be able to see the difference between the moderate conservatives we can respect and the rightwing loons who hide among them...Agreed, and The Big Losers in all this will be the NDP. The Tories have become the de facto centrist party, the right(small as they are) will vote in a couple of Wild Rose, and Mr Mason NDP leader loses one of the few arrows in his quiver- the ability to claim all Tories are Nazis.. Time for Brian to get back to driving that bus, Rachel Notley is far more suited for todays realities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted February 4, 2011 Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 (edited) Ted Morton won't even win the nomination.....again.I'm going to interpret this as meaning that, according to you, Morton won't defeat the Wild Rose party.Every 30 years or so, Albertans peacefully change regime. I guess it's time for a change. Edited February 4, 2011 by August1991 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alta4ever Posted February 4, 2011 Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 (edited) The Wildrose folks think that the PC's are as far left as the Liberals. The right wing is where most politicians in Alberta like to fly. The reality is that most Alberta citizens are very much closer to the centre nowadays. Jerry the PC's have slid to the left side of the spectrum. The Alberta party is made of of elements of the liberal party and green party. They attract the leftist elements of Alberta politics. Are you going to try to convince me that Dave Taylor is right wing? There are very few conservatives left in the PC's, they aren't fiscally conservative....most definitely aren't social conservative, and with what we have seen for legislation over the past couple of years, there aren't any libertarians. Those are the elements that make up a center right big tent party and there are precious few of those left in the PC's they have slid left. Heck the opposition liberals only big complaint in all the PC's have done is the provincial parks bill. There is only a degree of difference between the two. PC's centre left and liberals one step further centre left. Where does the Alberta Party fall....right between the two. Edited February 4, 2011 by Alta4ever Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellowtraveller Posted February 4, 2011 Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 (edited) I'm going to interpret this as meaning that, according to you, Morton won't defeat the Wild Rose party. Every 30 years or so, Albertans peacefully change regime. I guess it's time for a change. Don't know how you could possibly get that from anything that I've said, but for clarity: Morton won't face the Wild Rose Party because Morton will not even win the Tory leadership race. Mortons support last time was from the Tory right and a solid coalition of church people. Between ballots, it was noted by the people of Alberta of the real possibility (becuase of the odd preferential Tory leadership ballot system) that Morton could win on the next ballot, which was a shocker for the anointed one, Jim Dinning. Many, many nonpolitical and members of other parties in AB recognized the threat that the grotesque loon Morton represents, joined the PCs for $5, and voted Stelmach first, Dinning second. If they had not, Morton would be Premier now and sabre tooth tigers would again roam the Prairies. I know this ebcause I was a part of it and witnessed the big lineups at membership and voting booths. But Mortons core support IS the Wild Rose Party. There is just no way he has enough respect or support within the Tories to get as close as he did last time. Take this to the bank: the next Premier will be from Calgary. It will be a centrist candidate(and most likely now are Dinning and Gary Mar.) The Tories will easily win at least 60 seats out of 85. Edited February 4, 2011 by fellowtraveller Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellowtraveller Posted February 4, 2011 Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 There is only a degree of difference between the two. PC's centre left and liberals one step further centre left. Where does the Alberta Party fall....right between the two Good post overall alta4ever, though I'd contend the Tories are smack in the middle politiclly, neither left or right- the Happy Place for any Canadian party. Don't forget the NDP, who are slightly to the left of the Alberta Party and hating their position more every day. So, there are three parties fighting for the same centrist vote. 1. Liberals, who are in complete and utter disarray and appear headed for complete oblivion. They have fallen very far indeed from the days of Decore, who had a very good chance of unseating the Tories in the 90s. 2. Alberta Party: they have nothing, no leader, money or policy 3. The Tories, who face nothing credible from the center or left and havwe managed to purge themselves of their troublesome right wing. I don't see how they can lose their electoral dominance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alta4ever Posted February 5, 2011 Report Share Posted February 5, 2011 I don't see how they can lose their electoral dominance. Albertans aren't centrist. Albertans fall centre right. Decore did as well as he did because he was right of Getty! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbg Posted February 5, 2011 Report Share Posted February 5, 2011 Good post overall alta4ever, though I'd contend the Tories are smack in the middle politiclly, neither left or right- the Happy Place for any Canadian party. ******************** I don't see how they can lose their electoral dominance. The same way the Federal Liberals were the Natural Governing Party? Until they weren't? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bloodyminded Posted February 5, 2011 Report Share Posted February 5, 2011 (edited) The same way the Federal Liberals were the Natural Governing Party? Until they weren't? Just so. The Conservatives bounced back in brilliant fashion. I take it for granted that, ventually, the Liberal Party will do the same. Edited February 5, 2011 by bloodyminded Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellowtraveller Posted February 5, 2011 Report Share Posted February 5, 2011 Albertans aren't centrist. Yes, they are. Don't forget that most Albertans are not from Albeta. Alberta has not had a truly conservative voice since about Bible Bill Aberhart or Harry Strom. Really. I know that really hurts you alta4ever, you are a social and fiscal conservative kind f guy, but the Morton smackdown should make you ponder what is in front of you. It was an object lesson of where Albertans reside on the political spectrum. Other examples include health and education spending, and budgets for at elast the last dozen years. Sucks to be you, but Danielle Smith awaits you in nowhere land. I don't see how they can lose their electoral dominance.The same way the Federal Liberals were the Natural Governing Party? Until they weren't? I misspoke. I do see how they can lose their electoral dominance, but I do not see it in this leadership run or in the subsequent election campaign. I have outlined why in detail above, but it boils down to: there is nobody else, not now anyway and not in the foreseeable future. Period. I know the Wild Rose is some kind of Globe and Mail wet dream, but their appeal is really limited and easily defined. The rest amount to a small pile of nothing. Tories win, easily. The most interesting thing ahead will not be the election late this year or early next, it will be the leadership campaign. Morton won't win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alta4ever Posted February 6, 2011 Report Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yes, they are. Don't forget that most Albertans are not from Albeta. Alberta has not had a truly conservative voice since about Bible Bill Aberhart or Harry Strom. Really. I know that really hurts you alta4ever, you are a social and fiscal conservative kind f guy, but the Morton smackdown should make you ponder what is in front of you. It was an object lesson of where Albertans reside on the political spectrum. Other examples include health and education spending, and budgets for at elast the last dozen years. Sucks to be you, but Danielle Smith awaits you in nowhere land. I misspoke. I do see how they can lose their electoral dominance, but I do not see it in this leadership run or in the subsequent election campaign. I have outlined why in detail above, but it boils down to: there is nobody else, not now anyway and not in the foreseeable future. Period. I know the Wild Rose is some kind of Globe and Mail wet dream, but their appeal is really limited and easily defined. The rest amount to a small pile of nothing. Tories win, easily. The most interesting thing ahead will not be the election late this year or early next, it will be the leadership campaign. Morton won't win. Fellow we will see won't we. But I can tell you that Alberta is no the centrist utopia you seem to think it is. Alberta is a centre right province. Your right though Mortin won't win he has no support left in the party, his base all but the nostalgic fools have moved on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerry J. Fortin Posted February 6, 2011 Report Share Posted February 6, 2011 I guess a lot of citizens are in for a surprise. The dynasty is done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellowtraveller Posted February 8, 2011 Report Share Posted February 8, 2011 Alberta is a centre right province. You're right, we shall see. I think it will be Dinning, he is what many are looking for or pretends to be- fiscal conservative, social liberal.That is where Morton collapsed, and why Wildrose will too- there is just not nearly enough constituency for social conservatives. Morton proved it conclusively by finsihing last. Want more?: Calgary has a lefty Muslim as mayor and Edmonton a superb second term Jew as mayor. Alberta is like anywhere else really- everybody moves to the center overall sooner rather than later, if they want reelection. The dynasty is done.This tells me you've been watching a lot of Star Wars reruns on cable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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