maplesyrup Posted June 11, 2004 Report Posted June 11, 2004 Support for Tories and Harper Slides Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
maplesyrup Posted June 11, 2004 Author Report Posted June 11, 2004 SES CPAC poll results: Canada Party/Jun 10/Jun 11/Change Cons: 37%, 34%, down 3% Libs: 32%, 33%, up 1% New Dem: 17%, 18%, up 1% Bloc: 10%, 11%, up 1% Grn: 5%, 5%, flatlined Undec: 22%, 24%, up 2% So interestingly, 3 parties went up, the Bloc, the Liberals, and the New Democrats, all by the same amount, and the Conservatives went down by a wider margin. Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
BigGunner Posted June 11, 2004 Report Posted June 11, 2004 Support for Tories and Harper Slides Eh... I don't know how reliable the SES poll is. They use a 200 person random sample, whereas other polling firms will poll between 1200 and 2000 people for a more scientific poll result. If anything, SES measures a trend...and the trend shows that its ontario where the fight is right now and there is no real consensus out there. A one point drop overnight for the tories can be a trend, or a blip. I'll wait to see some more polls before i can make a judgement on that. Quote
maplesyrup Posted June 11, 2004 Author Report Posted June 11, 2004 Actually it is a 3 point drop for the Tories. Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
maplesyrup Posted June 11, 2004 Author Report Posted June 11, 2004 Martin pounds home anti-Tory message in face of new bad-news poll Do I detect some kind of a shift in momentum? Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
maplesyrup Posted June 11, 2004 Author Report Posted June 11, 2004 Harper crowd jeers Press Gallery Supporters of Conservative Leader Stephen Harper heckled and moaned in Brampton, Ontario, today as Parliamentary Press Gallery reporters repeatedly tried to corner Harper on his position on a variety of moral and social issues. What the .... was this? Did anyone else see it yesterday? Weird. Very weird. Maybe this is the reason for the drop in the polls for Harper. Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
maplesyrup Posted June 11, 2004 Author Report Posted June 11, 2004 Paul Wells says: "Turnaround?" Maybe! Maybe! Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
August1991 Posted June 11, 2004 Report Posted June 11, 2004 I don't know how reliable the SES poll is. They use a 200 person random sample, whereas other polling firms will poll between 1200 and 2000 people for a more scientific poll result. SES uses a sample of 600 with 200 new people added each day and 200 people from the previous third day dropped. What happened here is that among the 200 new people added, there were several more Liberal supporters than in the 200 dropped. I'd wait and see what happens in the SES numbers for the next day or two before drawing any conclusions. Quote
maplesyrup Posted June 11, 2004 Author Report Posted June 11, 2004 I think what might have happened is that Harper and the Conservatives have had a free ride for the first part of the campaign. The moment it looked like the possibility of a Conservative minority, and then Harper starting to bragg about a Conservative majority, has finally woken Canadians up, and they are starting to check him out. Canadians may be angry with the Liberals, but I am not sure they are that mad SES CPAC have been quite close to the other polling companies in their polling, and also tend to be trendsetters. Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
Goldie Posted June 11, 2004 Report Posted June 11, 2004 The prospect of a conservative majority comes into focus and all this before the debate. Paul Martin hasn't got a chance now. The media has done a great job of showing that issues like racism, pro-lifers, redefiners of marriage exist in all parties and crosses all lines. Now we get back to things like tax cuts vs waste. Quote
Alliance Fanatic Posted June 11, 2004 Report Posted June 11, 2004 All Harper has to do in the debate is ask one question of the prime minister. Mr Martin as prime minister would you or would you not allow votes such as abortion, gay rights, and capital punishment, be a free vote in the house of commons? That way Paul Martin will look like an idiot or a dictator. I think more people are getting used to Stephen Harper becoming prime minister, new ads put out by the conservative's show Harper as a family man, and acting in a prime ministerial way. Martin has scared off liberal social conservatives, about 40% of Canadian's are right of centre, he has effectively scared them away from his party. Quote "All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others" - George Orwell's Animal Farm
Slavik44 Posted June 11, 2004 Report Posted June 11, 2004 their support has dropped? Ekos June 7-9 12 34 5 30 19 Ekos May 25-27 11 30 - 38 18 (Plus 4%) --------------------------------------------- Ipsos June 1-3 11 31 6 32 17 Ipsos June 4-8 11 31 7 32 16 (Flatlined) ---------------------------------------------- Léger June 2-7 9 30 - 33 19 Léger May 27-31 12 30 5 35 17 (Flatlined) While the SES polls are nightly, they also have inacuracies, The cons at 37% no I don't think so...SES is excellent for gatherg trends they were the first to show a close race between the libs and the Cons and they were the first to show the Cons ahead of the Liberals. But to rely on there exact numbers is nto asmart practice. Quote The only power any government has is the power to crack down on criminals. Well, when there aren't enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible for men to live without breaking laws. - Ayn Rand --------- http://www.politicalcompass.org/ Economic Left/Right: 4.75 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.54 Last taken: May 23, 2007
BigGunner Posted June 11, 2004 Report Posted June 11, 2004 I think what might have happened is that Harper and the Conservatives have had a free ride for the first part of the campaign. The moment it looked like the possibility of a Conservative minority, and then Harper starting to bragg about a Conservative majority, has finally woken Canadians up, and they are starting to check him out. Canadians may be angry with the Liberals, but I am not sure they are that mad SES CPAC have been quite close to the other polling companies in their polling, and also tend to be trendsetters. I'm afraid that it is impossible to conclude this with one poll showing a decline for Harper's Tories. I do agree that the social agenda of many of the Conservatives and their former Alliance party core is their liability, considering the moderate-to-'liberal' social views of a vast majority of Canadians.. Quote
takeanumber Posted June 12, 2004 Report Posted June 12, 2004 The tories are being painted for what they are. That's all that's happening. People are learning the truth. Quote
BigGunner Posted June 12, 2004 Report Posted June 12, 2004 The tories are being painted for what they are.That's all that's happening. People are learning the truth. Perhaps they are being painted as the Republican farm team that they are, but remember that the Liberals themselves do not deserve re-election. One blip in the polls is just that. I'll reserve judgement on the conservatives trend when a trend is more clear. Quote
Goldie Posted June 12, 2004 Report Posted June 12, 2004 Thats right being painted as a government and sliding right into power. Quote
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