11 Techs in danger of extinction

[Topaz]

When I read this I could understand the reasons behind these on the way out BUT, I can`t see land line phones going, especially when most Canadians need them for their computers. I know there are others ways to connect to the net but I think for now landlines are used the most, as is the computer mouse, which I prefer and the real surprise was the credit card. I would think once this way of using one, one could really get in over their heads financially. Thoughts? http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/yahoocanada/100803/canada/11_technologies_in_danger_of_going_extinct

[kimmy]

When I read this I could understand the reasons behind these on the way out BUT, I can`t see land line phones going, especially when most Canadians need them for their computers. I know there are others ways to connect to the net but I think for now landlines are used the most, as is the computer mouse, which I prefer and the real surprise was the credit card. I would think once this way of using one, one could really get in over their heads financially. Thoughts? http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/yahoocanada/100803/canada/11_technologies_in_danger_of_going_extinct

Interesting article, Topaz.

Regarding the mouse: "pinching" and "swiping" is fine for looking through photos on your iPad, but people who use their computers for doing actual work are not going to give up their mouses. The idea of working through a big spread-sheet or doing computer-assisted design or graphics editing or so on by using "pinches" and "swipes" is pretty laughable.

It reminds me of similar predictions regarding the imminent demise of the desktop computer. "Laptops are so compact and portable that nobody needs a big clunky desktop anymore!" Well, maybe not if all you do on your computer is look at Facebook and tap out the occasional email. But people who do real work on their computers still want large monitors, a powerful processor, a full-sized keyboard, a mouse (or better).

It seems to me that a lot of these predictions about the future of computing demonstrate a disconnect between two different kinds of computer use: content consumption (most casual use...) and content creation (most actual work done on computers.) While devices like the iPad may be conveniently designed for content consumption, they're useless for content creation.

-k

[GostHacked]

Kimmy, it's a good point you bring up the two basic different types of use for a computer.

My laptop and large screen is perfect for work apps.

My main desktop at home is for gaming, and the other desktop is used for my music 'studio'.

A simple netbook or iPad will do wonders for i'd say the majority of people.

Faxes can sure die. Email with attachments have replaced it.

Beepers won't die out, because I can receive a page where my cell phone has lost all connectivity.

The mouse will evolve but never die out.

Not so sure about ereaders.

[Bonam]

The article is a thinly veiled iPad ad, mentioning it multiple times. Here's my opinions:

• DVD player: yes of course it will die, as we get higher and higher storage discs instead
  
• Fax Machine: won't die for a long time, due to bureaucracy which requires physical forms to be mailed/faxed
  
• Landline phones: will decline but will remain around. Wireless connections for cell phones don't work well everywhere, particularly industrial/lab type buildings, and in some places 100% reliability is required (for example emergency services)
  
• Beepers: will disappear, cell networks can be (and are on their way to being) expanded to provide coverage everywhere that is covered by beepers
  
• Film Projectors: yep, will disappear
  
• Mouse: not gonna disappear until you have a direct thought-computer interface available to replace it. None of the touted replacements have anywhere near the speed and efficiency. Pinch and slide? Yeah right.
  
• Cell Phone Chargers: there is no advantage to the wireless charger touted as its replacement, it is a larger, heavier, piece of equipment that you still have to drag around with you if you want to charge your cell phone
  
• Plasma TV: of course will be replaced, display technologies are constantly evolving
  
• Credit Cards: will evolve, but I don't think paying with your phone is gonna be mainstream any time soon
  
• iPod: umm... yeah, one particular model of music player? Of course it will be replaced
  

[Smallc]

Interesting article, Topaz.

Regarding the mouse: "pinching" and "swiping" is fine for looking through photos on your iPad, but people who use their computers for doing actual work are not going to give up their mouses. The idea of working through a big spread-sheet or doing computer-assisted design or graphics editing or so on by using "pinches" and "swipes" is pretty laughable.

If you get to use Apple's new magic trackpad, you may change your tune on that. It isn't good for all things, but for most computer use, it's better than a mouse. I think it will replace the mouse as a primary tool, but the mouse won't go away.

Edited August 11, 2010 by Smallc

[msj]

If you get to use Apple's new magic trackpad, you may change your tune on that. It isn't good for all things, but for most computer use, it's better than a mouse. I think it will replace the mouse as a primary tool, but the mouse won't go away.

My wife uses Macs mostly and she is always "borrowing" my blue tooth mouse since the trackpad is good but not good enough for web design and graphic design.

Of course, the blue tooth works better with her Mac than my PC.

[Smallc]

The new magic trackpad is really cool. It's a larger trackpad for desktops. As you say, there are things it can't do...there are also things a bluetooth mouse can't do that a wired one can (they respond slightly slower). Still, I agree that the mouse will start to play less and less of a roll with things like touch screen smart phones and computers as well as things like the magic trackpad.

[Moonlight Graham]

stealing Bonam's setup...

• DVD player: eventually will go yes, but it has a few more good years left. Many people don't give a crap about the extra resolution blu-ray provides at the extra cost.
  
• Fax Machine: will linger around. we've had scanners and modems around for quite some time now and fax machines still remain. Faxing is more convenient than scan-email-print.
  
• Landline phones: agree with Bonam. Home landline phones will continue to dramatically decline though, especially in urban areas.
  
• Beepers: crap technology by todays standards.
  
• Film Projectors: will vanish in big mainstream theatres but will remain in many classic theatres showing old flicks. I'd compare the film projector to the turn-table, obsolete yet still has will always have uses.
  
• Mouse: i have yet to find an interface better than a mouse. It will be around for the foreseeable future.
  
• Cell Phone Chargers: who cares.
  
• Plasma TV: bye-bye. Too power-hungry. We're already seeing LCD/LED TV's take over.
  
• Credit Cards: sorry, here to stay for foreseeable future. Have seen nothing to challenge it.
  
• iPod: I see all virtually all cell phones eventually being iPhones, with enough memory to store a decent about of media. It makes little sense to carry around 2 similarly-sized devices like cell phones & iPods and not combining them.
  

[Michael Hardner]

I don't usually go in for crystal ball gazing, but what the hell...

• DVD player: will be replaced by user-pay downloads
  
• Fax Machine: not much longer
  
• Landline phones: we won't have wireless internet in our homes - the infrastructure is there, so why not have landlines ? it doesn't take up much more bandwidth and you don't have to worry about the charge running out
  
• Beepers: will only be issued to drug dealers and pimps a la 'The Wire'
  
• Film Projectors: old technology that will only persist in some form for its charm value
  
• Mouse: haven't seen a better interface - though I would like to be able to point my index finger at the screen while typing
  
• Cell Phone Chargers: I hate cell phones. If they got rid of chargers that would make them better but still a pain. Wireless charging sounds to me like it would introduce more problems.
  
• Plasma TV: I missed out on these. Seems like they're gone.
  
• Credit Cards: Some kind of RFID could replace this.
  
• iPod: MG said "I see all virtually all cell phones eventually being iPhones" I assume you mean iPhone equivalents. I don't see Apple owning this market for too long. They can't beat the entire marketplace out there, as they should have learned with the Mac. The Mac could have been the PC. [please limit your joking about the last sentence to a reasonable number, thank you]
  

Edited August 11, 2010 by Michael Hardner

[Bonam]

[*]iPod: MG said "I see all virtually all cell phones eventually being iPhones" I assume you mean iPhone equivalents. I don't see Apple owning this market for too long. They can't beat the entire marketplace out there, as they should have learned with the Mac. The Mac could have been the PC. [please limit your joking about the last sentence to a reasonable number, thank you]

Apple doesn't "own" that market, and never did.

[Michael Hardner]

Apple doesn't "own" that market, and never did.

Right you are.