No Spring 2010 Election

[August1991]

Ignatieff has since dropped all talk of provoking an election and the improving poll numbers aren't enticing enough for him to resume sabre rattling.

He says he wants to continue seeing his party through a renewal process - which is to culminate in a thinkers' conference in Montreal at the end of March - and earning the trust of Canadians.

And he says he's learned his lesson about making election threats.

"I got a message last autumn," the Liberal leader said Thursday. "Polls don't change that to me."

Asked point blank if he's thinking of a spring election, he replied bluntly, "Answer: No."

CP

Harper has known this for at least two or three months. And this fact has been driving federal politics for the same time. Prorogation, Senate appointments, etc.

Now, if Ignatieff were smart, he would continue to lull Harper into believing that he has some respite - waiting for Harper to make a huge gaffe. Then, Ignatieff would pull a fast one - and pull the plug.

That's what a real Liberal would do.

[DrGreenthumb]

If Harper's numbers continue to plummet till March I wouldn't be so sure that it won't be election time.

Edited January 29, 2010 by Charles Anthony
deleted re-copied Opening Post

[Topaz]

Since its only been Harper calling for all the past elections, he won't be calling one now, in fact, he maybe a little easier to get along with in the Commons with his numbers falling??

[capricorn]

Now, if Ignatieff were smart, he would continue to lull Harper into believing that he has some respite - waiting for Harper to make a huge gaffe.

Then, Ignatieff would pull a fast one - and pull the plug.

That's what a real Liberal would do.

According to the Dion Liberals and now the Ignatieff Liberals, everything Harper has done is a gaffe since day one. Yet, Harper continues to lead the longest serving minority government in our history.

Harper has done everything short of handing over his own head to them on a platter and still Ignatieff is cowing away from the big "E" for fear of losing. He knows if he loses the next (and his first) election it's back to Harvard for him. So I think you would agree with me August, and I think you implied it, that Iggy is not a real Liberal as we understand it.

[capricorn]

Since its only been Harper calling for all the past elections,

Canadian voters will be heading to the polls, likely sometime in January, after the opposition brought down the minority government in a no-confidence vote Monday evening.

The motion passed easily in a 171 to 133 vote, triggering an election campaign one year and five months after Canadians last went to the polls.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2005/11/28/noconfidencevote051128.html

The Conservatives had just 99 seats. I wonder who those other 72 votes for an election belonged to. By my calculations, I don't think they were Conservatives.

[ToadBrother]

CP

Harper has known this for at least two or three months. And this fact has been driving federal politics for the same time. Prorogation, Senate appointments, etc.

Now, if Ignatieff were smart, he would continue to lull Harper into believing that he has some respite - waiting for Harper to make a huge gaffe. Then, Ignatieff would pull a fast one - and pull the plug.

That's what a real Liberal would do.

There have been no lack of "fast ones" from the Tory side. The problem is that they seem to have this tendency to backfire.

But I honestly doubt there's going to be an election. I don't think anything has enough legs to create a sufficient difference in predicted electoral numbers that anyone is going to want to pull the plug.

[waldo]

According to the Dion Liberals and now the Ignatieff Liberals, everything Harper has done is a gaffe since day one. Yet, Harper continues to lead the longest serving minority government in our history.

what's holding back Steve's majority? Why can't he git er done? You go to inordinate lengths to suggest the Opposition leaders are all weak... and unworthy compared to Steve... and yet, he can't git er done! What's holding back that ever elusive majority? Can we spell g a f f e? (btw: I like my perogies fried with onions)

Harper has done everything short of handing over his own head to them on a platter and still Ignatieff is cowing away from the big "E" for fear of losing. He knows if he loses the next (and his first) election it's back to Harvard for him. So I think you would agree with me August, and I think you implied it, that Iggy is not a real Liberal as we understand it.

take your shot - if not a "real Liberal"... as you understand it - then what kind?

[August1991]

If Harper's numbers continue to plummet till March I wouldn't be so sure that it won't be election time.

Do you mean that Ignatieff/Duceppe/Layton would provoke an election?

Since its only been Harper calling for all the past elections, he won't be calling one now, in fact, he maybe a little easier to get along with in the Commons with his numbers falling??

No, look at the Ignatieff quote.

According to the Dion Liberals and now the Ignatieff Liberals, everything Harper has done is a gaffe since day one. Yet, Harper continues to lead the longest serving minority government in our history.

How?

Harper has done everything short of handing over his own head to them on a platter and still Ignatieff is cowing away from the big "E" for fear of losing. He knows if he loses the next (and his first) election it's back to Harvard for him. So I think you would agree with me August, and I think you implied it, that Iggy is not a real Liberal as we understand it.

"Real" Liberal? IMV, Ignatieff doesn't have the stiletto touch.

what's holding back Steve's majority? Why can't he git er done?

I think Harper is right to follow Flanagan's advice: slow and steady, push and pause.

Stephen Harper is a typical WASP Canadian right-wing boomer who speaks French badly, but can speak it.

Let's see how this unfolds.

Edited January 30, 2010 by August1991

[waldo]

I think Harper is right to follow Flanagan's advice: slow and steady, push and pause.

ah ha! So we're just in a perogy pause now - alrightee. Would that be the same Tom Flanagan in this video... the one calling the perogy move 'childish'... the one saying the 'Conservative talking points don't have much credibility'? Granted, given some of Flanagan's other recent challenges to Harper, it's no wonder Shelly Glover, the Conservative MP sent forth to attempt to make the perogy case in this video... doesn't know him

[Shakeyhands]

thats a hilarious piece of tape!! She sounds like a commited CPC MP

It's easy to just nod and do whatever Dear Leader says I guess.

[msdogfood]

If Harper's numbers continue to plummet till March I wouldn't be so sure that it won't be election time.

i am with you on this!.

[Argus]

what's holding back Steve's majority? Why can't he git er done? You go to inordinate lengths to suggest the Opposition leaders are all weak... and unworthy compared to Steve... and yet, he can't git er done! What's holding back that ever elusive majority?

All those Frenchmen in Quebec who cling obstinately to the idea that no party is worthy of their vote if it's not run by a Francophone have something to do with it. As do a half a million homosexuals in Toronto. As well, all those close ties with the immigrant organizers the Liberals made need time to break down.

There was an interesting comment in the Globe yesterday about the possibilities in an Ontario by election.

How safe is Leeds-Grenville? Invulnerable to a thrust from the centre without help. For one, the demographics are stunning. According to Statistics Canada, the riding is 97.3 per cent white, 1.2 per cent aboriginal and 1.5 per cent other. The ethnic rainbow coalition the Liberals rely on won’t have much purchase in loyalist country.

The unspoken assumption is that the Liberals cannot win a riding which is made up of white people - not outside Quebec anyway.

[CANADIEN]

All those Frenchmen in Quebec who cling obstinately to the idea that no party is worthy of their vote if it's not run by a Francophone have something to do with it.

News to you.... Yhey are not Frenchmen.

As do a half a million homosexuals in Toronto.

Actually, I have met some that do vote Conservatives everytime. As for the rest, could it be that they expect less bigotry from the Liberals?

There was an interesting comment in the Globe yesterday about the possibilities in an Ontario by election.

How safe is Leeds-Grenville? Invulnerable to a thrust from the centre without help. For one, the demographics are stunning. According to Statistics Canada, the riding is 97.3 per cent white, 1.2 per cent aboriginal and 1.5 per cent other. The ethnic rainbow coalition the Liberals rely on won’t have much purchase in loyalist country.

The unspoken assumption is that the Liberals cannot win a riding which is made up of white people - not outside Quebec anyway.

Interesting indeed... In the 1990's, the Liberals were winning almost all risings in Ontario... regardless of the ethnic composition.

As for the reason that is holding the Conservatives from having a majority... It's called Canadian voters.

[DrGreenthumb]

Do you mean that Ignatieff/Duceppe/Layton would provoke an election?

No I mean that Harper has already provoked an election with his attacks on our democracy. If his poll numbers don't do a miraculous turnaround by March, I'd say that the other three parties would be silly not to vote non-confidence on the throne speach and send the neanderthals back to their Alberta caves.

[ToadBrother]

No I mean that Harper has already provoked an election with his attacks on our democracy. If his poll numbers don't do a miraculous turnaround by March, I'd say that the other three parties would be silly not to vote non-confidence on the throne speach and send the neanderthals back to their Alberta caves.

I think it would take a considerable loss in the polls, with the Liberals receiving the gains, before Iggy would pull the plug. If it's just going to sit around 5 points, then I'd say Iggy won't take that chance. I really doubt there's going to be an election any time soon.

[Wild Bill]

No I mean that Harper has already provoked an election with his attacks on our democracy. If his poll numbers don't do a miraculous turnaround by March, I'd say that the other three parties would be silly not to vote non-confidence on the throne speach and send the neanderthals back to their Alberta caves.

I would say that if the opposition parties, after having demonized Harper so strongly for "perogies", DON'T force an election then they have no right to any respect at all!

That's leadership! Stand up for what you believe or drop dead, I say! Harper may not be a Mike Harris but Ignatieff is certainly no Trudeau!

Once again, Harper may not be perfect but the others have a LONG way to go to earn my respect, let alone my vote!

[Topaz]

Don't be surprise if Harper calls for an election sometime this year. Some of the Tories members are spreading the money around again in my area and usually that means an election in the near future.

[punked]

Flippy floppy gave up on Harper's time being up? Funny I am shocked Flippy Floppy flip floped again this is only the millionth time he has done that.

[August1991]

I would say that if the opposition parties, after having demonized Harper so strongly for "perogies", DON'T force an election then they have no right to any respect at all!

WB, you have hit the proverbial nail. That's the key point in all this. The rest (prorogue rallies and so on) is verbiage.

Go back to the OP. What did Ignatieff say?

That's leadership! Stand up for what you believe or drop dead, I say! Harper may not be a Mike Harris but Ignatieff is certainly no Trudeau!

Is Ignatieff a Trudeau? Is Ignatieff a shark?

That's the question Liberals are asking themselves.

----

Before entering politics, Trudeau wondered whether he was "tough" enough. He went to Levesque (in about 1964) and asked about political life. Levesque advised him to take a few friends. When Trudeau arrived in Ottawa in 1965, he had Marchand and Pelletier beside him. When people urged Trudeau to become Liberal leader, he wondered whether he was "tough" enough to do it. (Trudeau was a product of Outremont with no active connection to the federal or provincial Liberal Party.)

There is a ridiculous CBC DVD about Trudeau that has, as its saving grace, a genuine 30 minute interview (by Norman Depoe) of Trudeau in 1967 on a train ride between Ottawa and Montreal. Weird. But the interview shows accurately how Trudeau thought about this.

"They're not political prisoners. They're outlaws."

(Check around the 2:00 point.) Edited February 1, 2010 by August1991

[madmax]

I would say that if the opposition parties, after having demonized Harper so strongly for "perogies", DON'T force an election then they have no right to any respect at all!

That's a load of bullocks. Considering Harper pulled the plug on government in 2008 for no specific reason, he took people to the polls on a whim of a majority government. A BS election.

Ignatieff tried to pull off the same "one trick pony" the following Sept and quickly learned that the passive Canadian electorate can become volatile.

Thus, Harper got away with it.... Ignatieff didn't.

Similar, Harper got away with the 1st Prorogue. It wasn't pretty and it was self inflicted. Part of being a good tradesman is fixing your mistakes. The public sided with the government, while non too impressed with the extended holiday.

Harper tries the same "one trick pony" again and discovers he is as inept as Ignatieff in reading the public tea leaves.

This isn't about the "Liberals" its about the "Conservatives" and thus the "Conservatives are taking a major butt kicking and deservedly so.

Just like when Ignatieff thought he could pull the plug on parliment, the public didn't judge the "Conservatives" but they did judge the "Liberals" and found their reasons lacking and they took a major butt kicking.

Many Conservatives are somehow lost in putting the spin on the Liberals. While I am certain many Liberals would love to take credit for bringing attention to the prorogation, the fact is, they just didn't have the structure game, or popularity to pull this off.

Nope, their is only one turkey to blame for this dismal display of government.

That turkeys name is Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

Harper set the Conservative party up for a Turkey Shoot and everyone is lining up for their turn.

Imagine if parliment was sitting .... there is little doubt that not only would the CPC have not dropped between 7 and 15points depending on which poll spread is your favourite, but the fact is, the CPC would likely have been above the 50% Mark after the response to Haiti.

No spring election....

Who'd call it? The public wants government to work, not another election after extended holidays.

Nope, by not calling an election and getting back to work, the election can be fought anytime afterwards and the CPC record is there for all to see.

Prorogation Vacation.

Enjoy those Senate appointments, it sure was worth it.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

I think folks are dreaming. If the Liberals get the lead to the extent that a minority is assured, the election call will surely happen.

[myata]

Nope, their is only one turkey to blame for this dismal display of government.

If they really had guts for any "turkey", they'd kick Harpers' GG pals right out at the first opportunity and then create a non partisan accord with all opposition parties to protect and strengthen our democracy i.e. reform and modernise desperately outdated political system. I'm not holding breath for that though. Maybe four of five generations later. In the meanwhile, for all I care about federal politics, it may be a good to go to bed. Blantantly partisan undemocratic government, political system made of exceptions, unspoken conventions and backroom exists, and impotent opposition. What feats could one expect from such an exciting mix?

[Jerry J. Fortin]

If they really had guts for any "turkey", they'd kick Harpers' GG pals right out at the first opportunity and then create a non partisan accord with all opposition parties to protect and strengthen our democracy i.e. reform and modernise desperately outdated political system. I'm not holding breath for that though. Maybe four of five generations later. In the meanwhile, for all I care about federal politics, it may be a good to go to bed. Blantantly partisan undemocratic government, political system made of exceptions, unspoken conventions and backroom exists, and impotent opposition. What feats could one expect from such an exciting mix?

It seems that Iggy agrees with you...at least to some degree.

CTV News

[msdogfood]

I am beting thare will be one very soon!!!

[Mr.Canada]

If Harper's numbers continue to plummet till March I wouldn't be so sure that it won't be election time.

The thing is that his numbers are only falling forthe short term, they will return to normal. Just a knee jerk reaction to the proro. and nothing more.

Once the aloof Ignatieff starts speaking again, it's all over anyways. This is why the Liberals are hiding him, to keep him from opening his mouth. They know when he does the numbers for the Liberals fall.