Jack Layton's war room scores a direct hit

[madmax]

The National Post props up the NDP.

When an NDP press release can make you look this bad, this easily, you have a problem

Nothing accomplished, nothing to do: Ignatieff Liberals play politics instead of helping the unemployed

Michael Ignatieff boasted that he had put the government on probation. His quarterly "Report Cards" on economic stimulus, combined with a Blue Ribbon panel on Employment Insurance had "found a way to hold this government accountable."

Now Liberal MPs have tabled a non-confidence motion - before MPs even read the Report Card and before they even debated $1 billion in help for the unemployed.

Liberals used to say EI was their top priority. Now it appears that they top priority is playing chicken over an election their own party is now too divided to fight.

How they got here:

1 May 2009: "Ignatieff was also challenged yesterday on when the party will put forward more specific policy ideas. He told reporters one big priority will be employment insurance reform." - Calgary Sun

16 June 2009: "People are going to starve this summer and they want to know what will be done about employment insurance. What is [the government] waiting for?" - Denis Coderre, Hansard

17 June 2009: "I know in my heart I can look unemployed Canadians in the eye today and say I've done my darnedest for you." - Michael Ignatieff on his "Blue Ribbon" agreement with Stephen Harper, CTV News,

17 June 2009: "We have found a way to make progress for Canadians on EI, and we've found a way to hold this government accountable, and I feel that this is a good day for our country." - Micahel Ignatieff, CBC The National

28 August 2009: "We're not having an election on EI," said Senator David Smith. "I don't hear Canadians clamouring for an election on this issue." Canadian Press.

1 September 2009: "Yes, we just told you we are withdrawing our confidence ... We withdrawing our confidence in the Conservative government. That's it that's all." - Liberal MP Denis Coderre, CBC Newsworld

4 September 2009: "We tried, and we haven't been able to work with the government ... It started off in June, it is now September and we still haven't seen anything serious ...They are not easy people to work with." - Liberal human resources critic Mike Savage, Sun Media, September 4, 2009

17 September 2009: "We don't want to give Mr. Layton any alibis" - Michael Ignatieff on fast tracking Employment Insurance reforms he intends to vote against, CTV.ca

29 September 2009: Liberals say they will vote against Report Card before reading it.

[jdobbin]

Now Liberal MPs have tabled a non-confidence motion - before MPs even read the Report Card and before they even debated $1 billion in help for the unemployed.

The NDP said they would vote against the budget even before they saw it. The only reason they are voting to support the government now is because they don't want an election that they will lose seats in.

The Globe scores a direct hit:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinio...article1304584/

As for the NDP, it is posing as the party that wants to make Parliament work, having spent most of the previous three years demanding an election at every turn to let Canadians throw out the Conservative rascals. The reason the New Democrats have changed their position has nothing to do with principle or with changes the party might extract on unemployment reform, but because the NDP feared the realization of its own loud rhetoric in favour of an election.

If the Liberals said they would not bring the government down, you can bet the NDP would vote to bring down the government.

Edited September 29, 2009 by jdobbin

[eyeball]

An election that focused on a battle between the Liberals and the NDP?

Would this be enough of a new wrinkle in the usual election reportage to cause the 'left-dominated' media to largely overlook the Conservatives? I'd like to hope it might.

[jdobbin]

I'd like to hope it might.

It will be hard to ignore to the Tories when they start booting the NDP so thoroughly in the balls as to cause Layton's face to turn orange.

[OddSox]

It will be hard to ignore to the Tories when they start booting the NDP so thoroughly in the balls as to cause Layton's face to turn orange.

That's a good one!

However, (it might be my TV) Ignatieff has been looking a little greenish lately...

[Moonlight Graham]

"War room"? Wouldn't Jack Layton have a "Non-violent resistance" room? heh heh heh.

[OddSox]

"War room"? Wouldn't Jack Layton have a "Non-violent resistance" room? heh heh heh.

A padded room?

[madmax]

The NDP said they would vote against the budget even before they saw it. The only reason they are voting to support the government now is because they don't want an election that they will lose seats in.

Of course the NDP would lose seats if it voted against an increase in Employment Insurance Benefits and brought down the government over it. Pretty Straight forward.

The Globe scores a direct hit:

The Globe had to have a counter argument for its surprisingly supportive article by Lawrence Martin 3 days ago, as seen in another MLW. But the bottom line in that article is the fact that Harper wants an election but doesn't want the blame. And while the CPC numbers hover near a majority, there is no rush to call it on any terms but their own. The CPC could have put forward a number of bills that the NDP would have no choice not to support, but the EI reform bill is one in which they would be able to take the NDP to the cleaners over if they pulled the plug on the government.

If the Liberals said they would not bring the government down, you can bet the NDP would vote to bring down the government.

Considering the latest polling data, it is not the NDP that have to worry about an election, it is the LPC. Every Liberal MP is in the closet thanking the NDP for not giving them what they wanted, an election. But outwardly, the LPC want to look tough.

It looks to me like Ignatieff is auditioning for a part in Duck Soup (See NDP Chicken)

If this had been the start of the campaign, Iggy would be vying for Stockwell Day status.

Standing in front of the wrong park, wrong stimulus message, wrong everything.

Backing Coderre, dismissing Cauchon, moving Le Prohon, Losing Le Prohon, Dropping Coderre, backing Cauchon.

Good thing its not an election and NO ONE is paying attention.

Edited September 30, 2009 by madmax

[jdobbin]

Of course the NDP would lose seats if it voted against an increase in Employment Insurance Benefits and brought down the government over it. Pretty Straight forward.

Uh, no. They would have voted no if the Liberals had said yes and said it was not enough.

The Globe had to have a counter argument for its surprisingly supportive article by Lawrence Martin 3 days ago, as seen in another MLW. But the bottom line in that article is the fact that Harper wants an election but doesn't want the blame. And while the CPC numbers hover near a majority, there is no rush to call it on any terms but their own. The CPC could have put forward a number of bills that the NDP would have no choice not to support, but the EI reform bill is one in which they would be able to take the NDP to the cleaners over if they pulled the plug on the government.

The NDP would have still voted no if the Liberals were saying yes.

Considering the latest polling data, it is not the NDP that have to worry about an election, it is the LPC. Every Liberal MP is in the closet thanking the NDP for not giving them what they wanted, an election. But outwardly, the LPC want to look tough.

It is still the NDP vote that is down from the election according to the balance of polls taken recently.

[madmax]

It is still the NDP vote that is down from the election according to the balance of polls taken recently.

Yes, that is why the Ekos Tracking has the NDP going up the LPC going down.......

However, todays Crop Poll has more bad news for the LPC and surprising results for the CPC. And that is before the LPC Public Relations disaster in Quebec.

There are alot of CPC supporters who want an election the worst way, because Ignatief jumped the gun and shot off another blank.

Get Justin Ready.....

If I were looking at tracking polls there is going to be a trend, and that trend in the next 6 weeks is going to support a Liberal Slide. Ignatieff is not outperforming Dion and the CPC attack machine hasn't even laid a glove on Ignaitieff yet, unlike the pummelling the CPC gave Dion early into his Leadership.

The problem is the intellectual Ignatieff is a political empty vessel.

If he wants to emulate Trudeau, best we just go for a real one.

Edited September 30, 2009 by madmax

[noahbody]

The NDP said they would vote against the budget even before they saw it.

But the NDP...

The only reason they are voting to support the government now is because they don't want an election that they will lose seats in.

With the polls the way they are, why do you think the Liberals want to have an election? How much did the low vote count in the last election cost the party based on $1.95 per vote/per year?

[jdobbin]

Yes, that is why the Ekos Tracking has the NDP going up the LPC going down.......

Really.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/41st_Canadian_federal_election

Compare the two Ekos polls and tell me what you see.

My reading of it is that they are down. Care to revise that statement?

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/09/23/ekos-poll.html

However, todays Crop Poll has more bad news for the LPC and surprising results for the CPC. And that is before the LPC Public Relations disaster in Quebec.

And bad news for the NDP in Quebec.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/spect...article1306566/

The NDP is down five points to 13 per cent in September.

Care to tell me how well they are doing in Quebec?

It is the Bloc that is doing great while the Tories have gained ground in their announcement a day strategy.

There are alot of CPC supporters who want an election the worst way, because Ignatief jumped the gun and shot off another blank.

Which the pollsters have said could land one on their chins if they attempt to do boot Layton in the balls a good hard one.

If I were looking at tracking polls there is going to be a trend, and that trend in the next 6 weeks is going to support a Liberal Slide. Ignatieff is not outperforming Dion and the CPC attack machine hasn't even laid a glove on Ignaitieff yet, unlike the pummelling the CPC gave Dion early into his Leadership.

The Liberals are certainly sitting stagnant.

The NDP are actually doing worse according to the very poll you linked.

Edited September 30, 2009 by jdobbin

[jdobbin]

With the polls the way they are, why do you think the Liberals want to have an election? How much did the low vote count in the last election cost the party based on $1.95 per vote/per year?

The free ride the NDP and Bloc had on voting no was not serving the Liberal party at all.

It is the NDP that is taking it badly. While the Liberal polls are stagnant, the NDP are below their election results and the CROP poll has them 5 points down in Quebec.

The Tories could call a snap election now but the pollsters have warned there would be a price.

So...we continue with the Tory government supported by Bloc and NDP.

[madmax]

And bad news for the NDP in Quebec.

Care to tell me how well they are doing in Quebec?

I'd say the crop poll reinforces the Leger Poll which has the NDP in the 13% 14% range. Excellent numbers for a Party that has one seat in the Province. And much like the 19% that one polster had the NDP at, I believed the NDP numbers of 18% were inflated at best.

http://www.legermarketing.com/documents/POL/099281FR.pdf

This poll also shows a downward trend for the LPC and an Upward trend on the graph for the NDP. But the NDP is still within its traditional polling levels.

The NDP are actually doing worse according to the very poll you linked.

Never linked the poll, you did. I said that poll showed the LPC falling and the CPC rising which it does.

I never consider the NDP as some force in Quebec, and I never hear August1991 give them any mention and he is as much on the pulse of Quebec as you are on the pulse of Manitoba.

However, the party that needs to go up in Quebec is the LPC and that is unlikely to occur.

The NDP can lose a total of ONE seat in Quebec, one that they were never supposed to win nor retain. Other then that, the NDP numbers are relatively meaningless in Quebec, unless someone believes they could win more seats, which I highly doubt.

The Party in trouble is the LPC and there is little doubt about it.

[madmax]

The free ride the NDP and Bloc had on voting no was not serving the Liberal party at all.

No the LPC were self serving at the Harper refreshment table for 79 consecutive confidence votes..

The Tories could call a snap election now but the pollsters have warned there would be a price.

So...we continue with the Tory government supported by Bloc and NDP.

Get the EI through, then lets see the CPC stickhandle the HST.

Edited September 30, 2009 by madmax

[Keepitsimple]

So...we continue with the Tory government supported by Bloc and NDP.

If the Liberals do put forward a non-confidence motion - and they all actually show up to vote, you can bet that Duceppe will not support the government. As always, the Bloc will only support the government if there is something compelling for Quebec.....they don't really care who's in power - just "show me the money".

So....the Liberals are now obligated to instigate an election because of Mr. Ignatieff's promise to do so, the NDP are the only party who are adhering to the wishes of most Canadains and continuing to let Parliament continue. It doesn't matter what their motivations are.......Canadians will reward the NDP with a minor uptick - they'll shave off some of the left wing Liberal electorate and maybe a few Greens as well. I think we'll start to see that in the coming polls. Liberals will bleed from the Left and the Right - precisely because they stand for nothing and their Leader has been shown to be The Emporor who wore no Clothes. What a complete and utter Liberal disaster.

[madmax]

The Liberals are certainly sitting stagnant.

Liberal Rift Hurting Party

Liberal rift hurting party, insiders say

Grits urged to concentrate efforts on wooing voters from other partiesBy STEPHEN MAHER Ottawa Bureau

You can feel the gloom on Parliament Hill, with Liberal staffers and politicians making black jokes and grimacing at their falling fortunes.

Scott Reid, who was director of communications for former prime minister Paul Martin, said the Liberals are actually doing worse than the polls show.

The problem is that Liberal support among those likeliest to vote is soft, while Tory support is strong.

"We’ve got to really start to pay attention to committed voters," he said Wednesday

Now that the NDP is supporting Mr. Harper’s government in the House, said Mr. Reid, the Liberals have an opportunity to reach out to NDP supporters "because they tend, as a group, to be virulently anti-Harper."

------------------snip----------------------------

Should be interesting to see how this strategy pans out.

[jdobbin]

If the Liberals do put forward a non-confidence motion - and they all actually show up to vote, you can bet that Duceppe will not support the government. As always, the Bloc will only support the government if there is something compelling for Quebec.....they don't really care who's in power - just "show me the money".

As I said, it is more to put the onus on another party. The Liberals couldn't trust Harper not to call a snap election again by voting to support his government and the NDP was getting a free ride by voting no every time.

I have no idea how the Bloc will vote but they could come up with fewer seats in the election if they do force it now.

So....the Liberals are now obligated to instigate an election because of Mr. Ignatieff's promise to do so, the NDP are the only party who are adhering to the wishes of most Canadains and continuing to let Parliament continue. It doesn't matter what their motivations are.......Canadians will reward the NDP with a minor uptick - they'll shave off some of the left wing Liberal electorate and maybe a few Greens as well. I think we'll start to see that in the coming polls. Liberals will bleed from the Left and the Right - precisely because they stand for nothing and their Leader has been shown to be The Emporor who wore no Clothes. What a complete and utter Liberal disaster.

There has been no reward so far in the polls for the NDP. They are below where they are in the election and have dropped in September thus far.

[jdobbin]

Liberal rift hurting party, insiders say

It has hurt Liberals.

However, NDP support according to your own CROP poll is down.

It is down according to Ekos as well.

The NDP are saying they will abstain or vote to support the government tomorrow. Some say they will be rewarded in the polls but so far the evidence is not there.

The Liberals need to straighten out their organization in Quebec. Coderre has been an issue for some time for some in and out of Quebec. Perhaps this will ultimately help.

[jdobbin]

No the LPC were self serving at the Harper refreshment table for 79 consecutive confidence votes..

And it hurt the party badly.

We'll see if it does the same for the NDP.

Get the EI through, then lets see the CPC stickhandle the HST.

They have blamed the province for it.

Does it require another vote in Parliament? I don't know. The legislation is already in place and the NDP are about to support the Tories on a few budget measures where the money could be placed for the provinces that do accept.

[jdobbin]

I'd say the crop poll reinforces the Leger Poll which has the NDP in the 13% 14% range. Excellent numbers for a Party that has one seat in the Province. And much like the 19% that one polster had the NDP at, I believed the NDP numbers of 18% were inflated at best.

Think you mean that it indicates they are down from the election since 18% is what they had in the vote.

I never consider the NDP as some force in Quebec, and I never hear August1991 give them any mention and he is as much on the pulse of Quebec as you are on the pulse of Manitoba.

However, the party that needs to go up in Quebec is the LPC and that is unlikely to occur.

With Coderre they had reached somewhat of a wall.

The NDP can lose a total of ONE seat in Quebec, one that they were never supposed to win nor retain. Other then that, the NDP numbers are relatively meaningless in Quebec, unless someone believes they could win more seats, which I highly doubt.

The Party in trouble is the LPC and there is little doubt about it.

I suspect that Cauchon will be tough to beat in Outremont.

If the NDP continues to go down in Quebec as CROP showed, there could be some room for growth in Montreal.

The Bloc remains the party that no federalist party has been able to figure out. I suspect gains will only be made when Duceppe steps down.

Edited September 30, 2009 by jdobbin

[madmax]

Think you mean that it indicates they are down from the election since 18% is what they had in the vote.

The NDP numbers in Quebec are at 13% according to the CROP poll.

The NDP numbers in Quebec election last year are 12.18% with 441,120 votes.

That'd be a wash.

The NDP numbers across Canada are in their traditional range regardless of their federal activity.

The Only way NDP numbers can go down to 1993 #s would be to have two of the largest Provinces in the country with NDP governments, screwing up at the same time in the midst of a recession, and with a new party that appeals to working class Canadians arrive on the scene.

None of which is possible. BC is now fronted by the Liberals, Ontario is Fronted by the Liberals, and their is no populist Reform party to swing towards.

Thus the NDP will remain in those 13% to 19% figures as they have throughout their period as CCF/NDP.

That said......

The NDP press release certainly hits a nerve to the party that could face Canadians in the EI EYE and say they did everything they could. Which I believe. I believe the Liberals used EI as a crutch for the LPC and exploited those laid off for political purposes. It stinks, and it looks like the NDP have called them on it.

Just what did the Liberals do on EI other then take $46 Billion?

Exactly how did the Liberals get the CPC to put back $1billion of teh $7Billion they took using the LPC scheme?

Much like the CPC taking credit for all the Stimulus announcements, the NDP have put their mark on the EI benefit increase.

The LPC claim to fame is that they want an election, that they don't want.

[jdobbin]

The NDP numbers in Quebec are at 13% according to the CROP poll.

The NDP numbers in Quebec election last year are 12.18% with 441,120 votes.

That'd be a wash.

They had been 5 points higher until September.

The NDP numbers across Canada are in their traditional range regardless of their federal activity.

The Only way NDP numbers can go down to 1993 #s would be to have two of the largest Provinces in the country with NDP governments, screwing up at the same time in the midst of a recession, and with a new party that appeals to working class Canadians arrive on the scene.

Or people just don't believe that Layton is the right person or that they are not in favour of their voting for the Tories. Given the slippage, you have to wonder.

The NDP press release certainly hits a nerve to the party that could face Canadians in the EI EYE and say they did everything they could. Which I believe. I believe the Liberals used EI as a crutch for the LPC and exploited those laid off for political purposes. It stinks, and it looks like the NDP have called them on it.

Still think if the Liberals had not said they had lost confidence that the Tories would not have made an EI change and the NDP would have voted against. Or, if the Tories did do EI change and the Liberals supported it, the NDP would have voted no.

The LPC claim to fame is that they want an election, that they don't want.

And the NDP are now the main party keeping the government going. Let's see if it starts to hurt them in the polls.

[DrGreenthumb]

They had been 5 points higher until September.

Or people just don't believe that Layton is the right person or that they are not in favour of their voting for the Tories. Given the slippage, you have to wonder.

Still think if the Liberals had not said they had lost confidence that the Tories would not have made an EI change and the NDP would have voted against. Or, if the Tories did do EI change and the Liberals supported it, the NDP would have voted no.

And the NDP are now the main party keeping the government going. Let's see if it starts to hurt them in the polls.

Go read the comments on Jack's facebook page. NDPers are pissed at him for supporting Harper.

[jdobbin]

Go read the comments on Jack's facebook page. NDPers are pissed at him for supporting Harper.

I was hearing it on some of the call in shows in the last days.