BC ELECTION POLL

[madmax]

Carried on from the other thread, but with a poll attached.

Have fun...

[madmax]

Three votes, and there is a big donut for STV?

A three way split for the listed parties???

Well its still early, long ways to go..

[madmax]

Bump

[madmax]

Interesting Poll on the BC Election.

Don't know how reliable...but some food for thought for political hacks...

http://www.robbinssceresearch.com/polls/poll_582.html

[madmax]

Cool

Seven days later...

We have a split on STV which has come back from far behind.

The Liberals appear to be a runaway train over the NDP.

Meanwhile I have no STV polls coming from BC.

Latest polling shows the NDP has closed up a 16point deficit to 3 points.

Still alot of time, will someone here break the STV deadlock and will it move into the 60% region?

[ToadBrother]

Cool

Seven days later...

We have a split on STV which has come back from far behind.

The Liberals appear to be a runaway train over the NDP.

Meanwhile I have no STV polls coming from BC.

Latest polling shows the NDP has closed up a 16point deficit to 3 points.

Still alot of time, will someone here break the STV deadlock and will it move into the 60% region?

In the real world, I think Angus-Reid published a poll last week showing 65% support for STV, so it's definitely still in the game. As to who wins it, well, Angus-Reid published a poll today showing the NDP within 3% of the BC Liberals, making this a real horse race. I suspect that a fair chunk of this has to do with collapsing job numbers in the province. I'm also wondering whether resentment from the carbon tax really is eroding the BC Liberal's base more than they expected.

The root of problem, to my mind, is this. Campaigning on a balanced budget (despite having actually suspended it for three years) during a major economic downturn in which many voters feel that the government may be the only means by which many families stay afloat may be a major mistake. The BC Liberals have been campaigning like it's 2001, where the Asian flu, ironically, was already dwindling. Back then, resurrecting old Bill Bennett-era notions like Restraint was a big seller, mainly because the NDP government was in near chaos for the a couple of years before the election. But campaigning against a government that went down in defeat eight years ago may be a strategic error. It got them leverage in 2005, but then again, times were pretty damned good four years ago.

I'm still leaning towards a BC Liberal victory, but it's going to be a very much reduced majority. I also expect that Campbell, if he had any notion of running again in 2013, is going to be given a very polite shove after he gets his bit of a glory during the 2010 games.

[madmax]

..... must have been asleep at the switch....

What was a runaway for Campbell and the Liberals had really tightened up on MLW with the NDP coming up from far behind... I think they were below the Greens at one point. Provincial Polls have the spread anywheres from 3% to 11% with the NDP trailing. Probably closer to the latter is more accurate.

STV has been a back and for battle here, but not yet near the magic number. MLW seems to be in reverse of the polls in BC where STV is holding a 53% to 47% lead in voter choice.

[madmax]

Well, the MLW straw poll is currently within the margins of error that the major polling companies are producing.

B.C. Liberals hold 9-point lead over NDP: poll

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/bcvotes2009/story...ustel-poll.html

Liberals, NDP in dead heat as James gains momentum with voters

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...PStory/National

STV has been neck and neck, and currently it is not enough to break the arbitrary 60% threshold, which may be the case come EDAY. Some polls have support for STV at around 53% however, STV finished at 58% in 2005.

Plenty of time left....

[kimmy]

I am undecided. I find myself discombobulated by this strange new world where Liberals are actually Conservatives, NDP are actually Liberals, and the Conservatives are a fringe party. I confess I have little passion for BC politics anyway. James and Campbell bickering over who's greener has done little to get me excited.

As for STV... I was undecided but am now leaning towards voting yes. Edit: I have moved my discussion of why to the other thread, located here.

-k

Edited May 9, 2009 by kimmy

[Oleg Bach]

The real power can be found in the centralist who has control over the right and left hand that is politics. What I have noticed about the few truely influential persons that I have met is that they - have their dislikes..in regards to political parties but it's just a passing fancey..If you want power - understand that all parties are the same and are theatre for public consumption..those in control don't give a damn about left or right.

[madmax]

One more day to go, and I have this feeling some MLW posters are either

A) going out on a limb with and NDP prediction as it stands right now. (Pat yourself on the back if right on this longshot)

or

Feel some momentum for the Opposition party.

Its still early and these figures can change by tommorrow.

As for STV, the vote here is closer then I expected but likely it could be a very realistic reflection on the referendum results. Unfortuneately for the referendum, close won't be good enough. It requires a decisive victory to become law.

[WIP]

I don't know much about B.C. issues except that the inverse relationship on environment illustrates why proportional representation is needed to break up the stranglehold of party politics.

Specifically, what I find ironic is that the normally rightwing B.C. Liberal Party adopted the Carbon Tax (likely when it seemed it would be a popular, minimal risk idea to win green votes) and so what does the left wing NDP Party do! They toss environmental issues over the side in a naked grab for power, and promise to end the carbon tax. So much for the presumption many people have that left wing parties will take care of the environment! Political expediency trumps everything.

This is a reason why there are many pessimists on the climate change issue who do not believe that any meaningful actions can be taken in time to prevent a future disaster. Many people will resist any new tax, and political parties can be counted on to do what wins the most votes, rather than what is best, and take the lead in staving off an environmental disaster.

[eyeball]

This is a reason why there are many pessimists on the climate change issue who do not believe that any meaningful actions can be taken in time to prevent a future disaster. Many people will resist any new tax, and political parties can be counted on to do what wins the most votes, rather than what is best, and take the lead in staving off an environmental disaster.

I admit to being pessimistic about electoral reforms or accountable transparent government. That said, and despite the recent apathetic tone of my thoughts towards voting I voted yes for STV. I didn't vote for either the Liberals or the NDP and I don't think STV will get the 60% it needs.

It would be quite ironic if the party that wins does so with 47% of the popular vote and STV misses its mark by only capturing 57%.

Is cynicism any improvement over pessimism and apathy? It might be more fun. It would be like choosing between crying or laughing I'd think.

[madmax]

My Prediction

Liberal Majority

Campbell 46%

NDP 35%

Green 14%

Conservative 5%

STV Yes 55%

Get your last minute BC MLW STRAW VOTE IN TODAY!!!

[Sabre Rider]

My Prediction

Liberal Majority

Campbell 46%

NDP 35%

Green 14%

Conservative 5%

STV Yes 55%

Get your last minute BC MLW STRAW VOTE IN TODAY!!!

I wouldn't be too sure about that.

During this election campaign, Campbell has isolated, ignore and insulted a lot of people and groups. In Vernon, he tossed a Loonie at a striking (read as on the picket only during off duty times because they are essential services) paramedic who challenged him. Also, while the forestry workers were holding a convention in Vernon, Campbell blew them off when they invited him to come and talk with them while he was just down the road in Kamloops.

Wally Oppal in my riding has been taking a lot of hits both in the press as Stone Wall Oppal due to his no comments about the BC Rail Scandal. Plus he was parachuted into the riding after the incumbent bailed after being raked over the coals for the BC Hydro High Tension transmission lines that were pushed through Tsawwassen neighbourhoods without much concern about what the residents think nor the effect they had in lowering property values. People in Ladner are still pissed about having the local hospital pretty much down graded to little more then a clinic.

Another thing that has a gotten a lot of people I know pissed is the negative ads run by Liberal Supporting groups on the radio. These ads are feature a couple of women talking about Carol James and the NDP in a rather demeaning and insulting manner, much the same way the Harper Conservative ads attacked the Liberals during the last Federal election. Friends and business acquaintances of mine generally feel they are being talked down to and have been put off by the ads.

In Penticton where my mother resides, the Green Party Candidate is making a very strong showing and has a lot of local support. That is a traditionally very Conservative riding and one that the Liberals normally would of considered safe, but no longer. Its going to be interesting to say the least. I've done my civic duty and have to admit voting for my local NDP candidate over Stone Wally, figure its time to show the arrogant Campbellites the door. Also voted against the STV measure, I find it a bit too convoluted and most people I've talked to about really don't understand it, so this time around I think its best to stay with the first past the post system until the STV proponents really educated the general populace about what it is and how it works.

Edited May 13, 2009 by Sabre Rider

[geoffrey]

Liberals win. Nothing exciting. It's becoming like Alberta.

[kimmy]

The phrase "status quo" has been used over and over by the analysts tonight. The percentages haven't changed much, the seat totals haven't changed much, most of the incumbents have been reelected.

-k

[Sabre Rider]

Very close results in many ridings, I figure that the Greens cost the NDP at least five or more ridings. Delta South is far too close to call at this time, only 15 vote separate Liberal Stone Wally Opall and Independent Vicki Huntington, maybe a recount is in the offering? As for the STV proposal, its dead in the water, over 2/3 of the popular vote has gone to the FPTP option and the majority of the ridings have rejected STV, at least according to the CBC website.

[madmax]

So, just how "Right Wing" is Maple Leaf Web posters??? Or did many of the pundits put excessive beliefs on the "Left" Coast. The Campbell Government is the most Right Wing Government today in Canada, and it just received its 3rd Majority.

MLW pundits were split, but BC voters where decisive.

As for STV, I am totally shocked by the drop in support. 40%..... Perhaps this is due to a poor STV campaign, or perhaps people took a better look this time around at how it works. I do know that many of the rabid STV posters turned me off of STV, but even still, I did give it a nod over FPTP, although I never expected it to receive 60% support either here on MLW or in BC. I'd say STV is dead dead dead in BC. Once Again MLW was split on the issue and BC voters were more supportive of FPTP.

Also in BC a number of voters went in and strictly supported STV but didn't vote for "ANY" candidate or party.

At least they got halfway there, voting is a good thing, but I would suspect to hear some disbelief that Campbell got another Majority for those same people.

The media came in hard and strong for the BC government on the final days, "that left wing media"

All in all, a good wrap up.

Kimmy gets the award (I CHOSE ) for best post in the thread. (Anyone surprised by that?)

Because, I also get confused about BC politics.

Loser of the election. It has to be Sterk and the Green Party. After hearing her speak, I would call her a "Bitter Green". High Hopes, but they stunk. She is probably going to get a job with the Campbell Liberals.

8% of the vote is HALF of what they were polling. Obviously many disgruntled Liberals were parking their votes with the Greens until it came time to mark the ballot. No seats, and really, a totally disgraceful performance when there are only 2 other parties to deal with. I figured they would be hurt by the economy, and the same for STV. If things are good, then people may have more time for other ideas. But this time, people circled the wagons around the current government.

I don't think this will be good for BC in the long run, but what do I know

[Sabre Rider]

So, just how "Right Wing" is Maple Leaf Web posters??? Or did many of the pundits put excessive beliefs on the "Left" Coast. The Campbell Government is the most Right Wing Government today in Canada, and it just received its 3rd Majority.

MLW pundits were split, but BC voters where decisive.

As for STV, I am totally shocked by the drop in support. 40%..... Perhaps this is due to a poor STV campaign, or perhaps people took a better look this time around at how it works. I do know that many of the rabid STV posters turned me off of STV, but even still, I did give it a nod over FPTP, although I never expected it to receive 60% support either here on MLW or in BC. I'd say STV is dead dead dead in BC. Once Again MLW was split on the issue and BC voters were more supportive of FPTP.

Also in BC a number of voters went in and strictly supported STV but didn't vote for "ANY" candidate or party.

At least they got halfway there, voting is a good thing, but I would suspect to hear some disbelief that Campbell got another Majority for those same people.

The media came in hard and strong for the BC government on the final days, "that left wing media"

All in all, a good wrap up.

Kimmy gets the award (I CHOSE ) for best post in the thread. (Anyone surprised by that?)

Because, I also get confused about BC politics.

Loser of the election. It has to be Sterk and the Green Party. After hearing her speak, I would call her a "Bitter Green". High Hopes, but they stunk. She is probably going to get a job with the Campbell Liberals.

8% of the vote is HALF of what they were polling. Obviously many disgruntled Liberals were parking their votes with the Greens until it came time to mark the ballot. No seats, and really, a totally disgraceful performance when there are only 2 other parties to deal with. I figured they would be hurt by the economy, and the same for STV. If things are good, then people may have more time for other ideas. But this time, people circled the wagons around the current government.

I don't think this will be good for BC in the long run, but what do I know

The Green's played their traditional role, that of spoiler. Somewhere between 6 and 12 ridings went Liberal thanks mainly to the votes the Green candidates pulled away from the NDP. Campbell should be giving the Green Party a big wet kiss in appreciation. And I would not be surprised to hear a re-count being ordered in my riding of Delta South, Oppall won with only 2 votes over Independent Huntington, makes me wish I had voted for her instead of the NDP candidate.

[madmax]

The Green's played their traditional role, that of spoiler. Somewhere between 6 and 12 ridings went Liberal thanks mainly to the votes the Green candidates pulled away from the NDP. Campbell should be giving the Green Party a big wet kiss in appreciation. And I would not be surprised to hear a re-count being ordered in my riding of Delta South, Oppall won with only 2 votes over Independent Huntington, makes me wish I had voted for her instead of the NDP candidate.

You had three independants in your riding. I had heard of Shavluk... as perhaps have many people on MLW, but who is this Huntington and why was there so little coverage of her??? This would have been quite the upset.

[kimmy]

The Green's played their traditional role, that of spoiler. Somewhere between 6 and 12 ridings went Liberal thanks mainly to the votes the Green candidates pulled away from the NDP. Campbell should be giving the Green Party a big wet kiss in appreciation. And I would not be surprised to hear a re-count being ordered in my riding of Delta South, Oppall won with only 2 votes over Independent Huntington, makes me wish I had voted for her instead of the NDP candidate.

The conventional wisdom, that Green voters take votes from NDP, may not apply as much as usual. Carol James' position on the carbon tax may have cost her support among environment voters.

-k

[Riverwind]

The Green's played their traditional role, that of spoiler. Somewhere between 6 and 12 ridings went Liberal thanks mainly to the votes the Green candidates pulled away from the NDP.

In this election Green votes would not have gone NDP if there was no Green option. The voters would have likely stayed home. So your logic makes no sense. Edited May 13, 2009 by Riverwind

[Nat]

Very close results in many ridings, I figure that the Greens cost the NDP at least five or more ridings.

Why do people insist that Green votes would have voted NDP. If Carole Taylor becomes leader of the Liberals I might vote for them again but as long as Gordon is leader I'll vote Green! I've never voted NDP in my life and I'm not likely too.

[Goat Boy©]

The Green's played their traditional role, that of spoiler. Somewhere between 6 and 12 ridings went Liberal thanks mainly to the votes the Green candidates pulled away from the NDP. Campbell should be giving the Green Party a big wet kiss in appreciation. And I would not be surprised to hear a re-count being ordered in my riding of Delta South, Oppall won with only 2 votes over Independent Huntington, makes me wish I had voted for her instead of the NDP candidate.

Cop out. Greens take Liberal votes as well as NDP votes. Carole James fails, that is the only thing this election says.